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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic

162 Suspected cases in Iraq

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    Posted: February 02 2006 at 3:59am

This is from Fla_Medic. 

Good job Fla_Medic!

New bird flu cases in Kurdish Iraq

Al-Sulaimaniya, Iraq/Cairo (dpa) - A fresh bird flu scare has erupted in the Kurdish region in northern Iraq with reports of 162 suspected cases almost two weeks after a 15-year-old girl died of the deadly strain.

In the Thursday issue of pan-Arab daily al-Hayat, the head of the pre-emption committee in the Kurdistan Province Najm Eddin Mohammed announced that 162 people have been admitted to the diagnosis center on suspicion of contracting the virus.

Mohammed told al-Hayat that the virus has proliferated throughout Rania, a region southwest of al-Sulaymania on the border with Turkey, and described the influx as a "crisis."

http://tinyurl.com/ae7ua



Edited by Albert
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Commentary
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162 Admitted H5N1 Suspect Cases in Northern Iraq

Recombinomics Commentary

February 2, 2006

162 people have been admitted to the diagnosis center on suspicion of contracting the virus

On January 17, a 15-year-old villager in Rania died of the deadly flu.

"Two other citizens have died of the infectious virus while two other cases are in intensive care, in addition to four other cases," Mohammed added.

Al-Hayat reported that a 35-year-old woman identified as Sarya Mirza is being hospitalized in an Erbil hospital on suspicion she has sustained the deadly flu.

The above descriptions indicate the number of human H5N1 cases in Iraq have increased significantly in recent days, including at least one death in addition to the index case and her uncle.  It is unclear if all cases at the diagnostic center have been admitted, but the above descriptions appear to be limited to northern Iraq.  However, other media reports described suspect cases in central and southern Iraq.

In Turkey, human cases were
identified across the country, indicating spread was via wild birds.  The rapid spread in suspect cases in Iraq suggests a similar spread by wild birds.  This mechanism is likely because the H5N1 in Turkey has the HA S227N polymorphism, which will allow the H5N1 to grow in birds, but also increase efficiency of infections in humans.

Earlier reports described 12 patients hospitalized with pneumonia.  More information on the clinical presentation of the suspected cases would be useful
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2006 at 5:07am
More information on the clinical presentation of the suspected cases would be useful

Useful, indeed.

H3N2 is spreading thru out the area, so many of these suspected cases could be seasonal flu. It will take some time to sort this out.  But this also poses a danger, as it increases the chances of someone with a highly infectious virus acquiring the H5N1, and creating a hybrid.

Just as in war, in pandemics, the first casualty is the truth.  I suspect we won't know the truth of this report, or it's seriousness, for several days.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote meewee Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2006 at 5:54am

I suspect that this is what happened in Turkey also but the government there cracked down so hard on the release of any new info that it was not allowed to be reported, same as everywhere. Folks in light of this it looks like we are staring into the face of the pandemic! And it's only going to get worse! Maybe it has already re-combined due to the flu season and gone H2H! One things for sure WHO is not going to report that that's the case until they have their back against the wall and nowhere to go!

Meewee

God Bless us all!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ella Fitzgerald Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2006 at 6:16am

Is this cluster of outbreaks the beginning of H2H?

Will WHO drag their feet in changing the alert level to a 4?

Lots of questions and not enough time.

 

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Angel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2006 at 6:34am

Hopefully we will heard from someone who has a soldier there that can enlighten us on what really is happening.

Angel
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2006 at 7:11am
Err on the side of caution.

Assume level 4 has already has been acheived. So what if you have a few
extra bags of rice in the pantry. Sooner or later you'll have to eat it no
matter what.

Do your shopping before the fire sale starts. That's where I'm going this
morning, buy more N-95's. Everytime it spreads, I buy a little more of
what I need. Sure my wife thinks I'm bonkers. But not as much as before.

Don't count on WHO to give you a heads up. There are too many powerful
forces massaging the message. Billions of dollars are at stake. Political
forces beyond our comprehension are at work.


I trust Dr. Niman's word before

the WHO's. He made the right call on

Kurdistan, before the WHO would admit it !



Edited by Rick
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Angel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2006 at 9:05am

Rick...I, too, am prepping because I do not want to be in the middle of the "mad rush"!  I live in the North and when they predict snow the stores are jammed.    I, too, feel Dr. Niman know what he is talking about. 

This 162 suspected cases...not much out about it.  I guess we will have to have patience.  I can't believe how the info is always sooooooo confusing!

Angel
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ella Fitzgerald Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2006 at 9:17am
See the new topic posted. WHO just updated on northern Iraq.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Steve Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2006 at 9:19am
Assume Level 4 has already been achieved. Are you serious! Do you work for the CDC. The Bird FLu can be contained. It is important to remember that much is being done to stop the spread of this terrible virus.  Stock up,  I'm going to Costco. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jackson Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2006 at 9:30am
Steve,
I don't think you need to work for the CDC to figure out that there are probably many more cases of human-to-human transmission than are being reported or confirmed by the WHO. There seems to definitely be "increased h2h transmission", and although much IS being done to try to stop the spread of the virus, many countries are simply lacking the resources that are necessary to effectively contain the virus. Also, as you have probably read in other postings, there is a lot of denial and a lack of adequate awareness about the avian flu on in a number of different countires. This will significantly impede the efforts being made to combat the spread of the virus.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ella Fitzgerald Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2006 at 9:37am

I don't care what level they give it right now. WHO just updated their numbers and only show 1 death in Iraq. They are still waiting on 2 other tests to be returned from last week. I can't wait until it can be confirmed about what is going on in northern Iraq. WHO won't even be there until early next week and if there are 162 people that are suspected then that sounds pretty alarming to me. How can 162 people in a small area become ill all at once if it is not even just the regular flu?

I hope tonight we can get more information. This is the closest I've been to the edge of my seat. I don't want to have to depend on the WHO to tell me anything because I think that will be too late. They have to confirm and substantiate everything which takes too darn long if you ask me. If you are smart you will read between the lines or go with your gut instinct.

I don't want to have a knee jerk reaction but at the same time I don't want to get caught empty handed either. I think you need to be independent in your decisions because if you wait on WHO to raise the level then I feel it will be too late. Read as much as you can about it. Google like crazy and learn. Educate yourself and be proactive because the world will be reactive to this.

Okay, off my soapbox but dog gone....this is getting intense....I need a glass of adult beverage.....hey one more thing to add to my rations!

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2006 at 10:24am

I believe the numbers will fall out in the next 24 hours.  I believe internet users will have advance notice over main stream news.  I believe it will take a drastic measure to panic most Americans.  The 162 in Iraq will not do that, even if true - just my thought.  The adult beverage either way has a long shelf life.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2006 at 10:35am
"I believe internet users will have advance notice
over main stream news. I believe it will take a drastic measure to panic
most Americans. "

I agree 100%.

We are Darwin's children, lets make the best of it for our families and not
disappoint Darwin. Keep learning - Keep living.
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