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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic

Climate-change were you are.

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 10 2019 at 12:06am
KiwiMum, Techno-thanks for reacting;

Some remarks;

-Normally discussion on climate change in the Netherlands is "global 2100"-there seems to be a growing trend to look more at the present for regional issues.
-Politics still stick to plan "A", putting money in dikes etc. For the first time there is public criticism and doubt on the effectiveness of the present programs.
-Both in Belgium, Netherlands and some other countries teenagers go to the street demanding more action on climate change from politics. It is their future !
-In the article(s) focus is still on how to deal with sealevelrise. What is kept out of the discussion(s) is that a rise of several meters by 2050 will end global economy.
-Already climate change is effecting harvests all around the globe. Here in the Netherlands drought meant that salt sea-water replaced groundwater. In some western parts of this country onions, hay etc production went down.(On the other side Dutch wines are booming.)
-There is an increase of infra structure faillures due to extreme weather.
From sinkholes to possible flooding-traffic/transport in the Netherlands is getting more problematic already.
-In the articles they picture the Dutch situation. In 1953 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Sea_flood_of_1953 floods brought damage over NW Europe (we did get aid meant for the Korea-War).
-Three major causes of flooding:
1 Storm surge from the Northsea
2 Extreme rainfall
3 High water levels in the rivers
(These three would often combine in extreme storms effecting a larger area)
-Four major sources of income for the Netherlands:
1 Natural gas (production =decreased due to earthquakes)
2 Agriculture (second global exporter after the US)
3 Financial "services"/tax evasion (For tax reasons IKEA, Rolling Stones are "Dutch")
4 Logistics (Rotterdam, Amsterdam-ports railway, internet and energy distribution for NW Europe)
All these are under pressure from climate change-effecting also taxation.

-Already every year billions of Euro's are spent on dikes, room for the river https://www.ruimtevoorderivier.nl/english/ etc. The costs will increase/explode while the sources of income are decreasing.
(Most of those measures only work on a European scale, rivers come from Germany, France, Belgium into the Netherlands)

Were can the Dutch go (to put it very optimistic) ? In 1900 the German emperor claimed the Dutch were German only "we did not know it". In 1800 Napoleon claimed the Netherlands was made of mud from French rivers (Rhine, Meusse). Looking at 2000 years of history the Netherlands most of the time were part of another country-so we are "Europeans" and have to be flexible !
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Joined: May 01 2013
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 22 2019 at 6:54am
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Europe-Awaits-Record-Smashing-June-Heat-Wave:
Early-season heat waves are especially dangerous
Heat waves are especially dangerous when they occur early in the summer, before people have had time to adapt to the seasonal heat. A 2015 report from the World Meteorological Organization and World Health Organization on heatwaves and health notes:

“Heatwave timing appears to have a notable effect on the level of mortality. Heatwaves occurring early in the summer have been shown to be associated with greater impacts on mortality in the same population than later heatwaves of comparable or higher temperatures (Hajat et al., 2002; Kinney et al., 2008; Anderson and Bell, 2011). The impact of high temperatures later in the summer is sometimes diminished after an early heatwave.

“In Europe, heatwaves occurring in June result in relatively high mortality compared to later in the summer, while most high-mortality events in southern Asia appear to occur early in the summer before the summer monsoon."

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Europe’s biggest heat-wave catastrophe occurred in the first two weeks of August 2003. Great Britain saw its first 100°F readings in more than 300 years of recordkeeping, and similar temperatures were widespread across Europe. Adding the various national counts implies that more than 50,000 people died as a result of the 2003 European heat wave. Later estimates brought the toll as high as 70,000, though the exact number is difficult to discern. No heat wave in global history has produced so many documented deaths.

A landmark 2004 study led by Peter Stott (University of Reading) found that human-produced climate change made heat waves on par with the European disaster of 2003 about four times more likely to occur.

DJ-Although the models are different in every run-some models go for 40C+ temperatures next week in the Netherlands.

We have to wait and see how things will work out. But those kind of temperatures may become deadly. https://www.euromomo.eu/ may give an indication of wich groups may get effected most.

When temperatures go this extreme in june they may stay extreme longer during the day since the sun will be shining longer than in August. There have been plans for taking care of elderly but spending cuts may mean a lot of elderly and people with chronic health problems may not get the extra care needed during an extreme heatwave.

Also making cities more climate-change-proof sometimes may be less effective than hoped if temperatures go this extreme. Water may cool cities in the first days but prolong the heat later on-water stays warmer longer than land.

There have been reports of trees starting to burn in Kuwait due to extreme heat-some kind of "self combustion" (spontaneous ignition) for trees, bushes, cars etc. may occur with the possible extreme temperatures.
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Joined: May 01 2013
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Points: 35372
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 24 2019 at 8:24pm
Proberbly heatwave related https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/netherlands-telephone-system-out-nationwide (computers were unable to make connections-including emergency calls).

Since it was during the heatwave-with lots of people looking for medical care due to heat related problems this "disturbance" was a major problem and may have cost some lives.

Allthough the heat is less extreme (monday max 33C-today may bring 37C) a few days ago models expected temperatures above 40C for several days.

Since Thursday may be getting cooler-under 25C in the met.office area we may not even get to an "official heatwave". Saterday may bring another extreme day (37C ?).

There was also major disruption on the railways. Maybe related to the communication problem and made worse by the heat.

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/national-emergency-as-u-s-farm-crops-fail-food-shortages-by-late-july-food-riots-thereafter and problems with drinking water may be on their way....DJ-We seem to have a heatwave plan even for cows. When it gets to hot during the day the can go outside during the night and "relax" in (cool) stables during the day.

https://www.meteoalarm.eu/

http://www.thebigwobble.org/2019/06/after-turbulent-storms-floods-giant.html
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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