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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic

A Pandemic is coming

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Kilt5 View Drop Down
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    Posted: May 04 2018 at 3:45am

A pandemic is coming, and American politics have set us up for failure

The Diamondback-7 hours ago
H7N9 currently doesn't spread easily between humans, but it has killed up to 39 percent of those infected. An outbreak of a more transmissible but similarly deadly mutation would be devastating, and that mutation could happen at any time. Acting now would minimize the damage. Policy makers need to ...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 06 2018 at 1:08pm
Originally posted by Kilt5 Kilt5 wrote:

A pandemic is coming, and American politics have set us up for failure

The Diamondback-7 hours ago
H7N9 currently doesn't spread easily between humans, but it has killed up to 39 percent of those infected. An outbreak of a more transmissible but similarly deadly mutation would be devastating, and that mutation could happen at any time. Acting now would minimize the damage. Policy makers need to ...

Thanks, Kilt!  Sadly, the far-right in the USA is dominated by religious thinking that, if we have an apocalypse, Jesus Christ will return and take his faithful followers back to heaven with him.  

That is, unbelievably, part of the reason why funding for pandemic relief in the USA is lagging.  These people WANT a pandemic.  Sad. 



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 06 2018 at 1:41pm
First off I want to say I don't like these types of headlines... they look as though they are news but it is simple fear mongering.    I guess you could argue that we need to be afraid in this instance.

My question is this... what do you want the policy makers to do?    What is there that is fiscally responsible and actually effective?   Is it money that is needed or just policy change?    I could see the government wasting tons of money on something that doesn't work for a virus that never comes to fruition.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 06 2018 at 2:40pm
I agree it is fear mongering, although not without good reason.  There will be another plague/outbreak/pandemic, the only unanswered question is when.

I used to know an Archpriest of the Orthodox persuasion, the equivalent of a monsigneur.  We used to have many rich theological discussions.  He died over a decade ago and I miss him greatly. 

His take on the bible and God's attitude to this world was fascinating.  The Orthodox/Catholic position was simple, this world does not really matter and its trials and tribulations are profoundly minor compared to the wonders to come.  The misery we feel is just because we "don't get it".  Do not misunderstand me.  This does not mean God does not care about us, it is just that the real us is immortal and the bit that is here is inconsequential.

However, starting from a religious perspective, God would not intervene anyway.  Assuming there will be a rapture, which is also mired in doctrinal controvesy, those who do not care enough about their fellow man, even/especially the sinners, are not the folk that would be raptured anyway.

The degree to which self delusion can flourish in those looking for an excuse to be selfish never ceases to amaze me.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 06 2018 at 8:51pm
First off let me say... any true Christian would want to do anything possible to alleviate suffering of their fellow man.

What practical steps do you want to see done for Pandemic preparedness?  One thing I know for sure we need better stockpiles of medicine/medical equipment and we need to secure supply lines for more.    I find it an abomination that we had a saline shortage this last winter... that should NEVER happen.  We need more surveillance and vaccine research.   We also need a LOT more negative pressure isolation rooms.      However I fear even great investments in these would only help us in the early days of an outbreak.    Regardless of preparedness I feel we will still be overwhelmed during the peak.

What preps do YOU want to see done?   Do you think if significant resources where applied it could actually prevent some pandemics?  Of course we need to be better prepared but we also want our leaders to be good steward of our money.   


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Kilt5 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 06 2018 at 11:36pm
its now possible to buy pet insurance so when taken in the Rapture your dogs cats and horses will be taken care of by atheists who will be left behind.

And the insurance is not expensive.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 06 2018 at 11:37pm
A flu pandemic is coming - I can guarantee it
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 06 2018 at 11:48pm
Epidemiology is my thing, but not the other health services.  That is one for Chuck.  I automatically agree with everything he says.  He is the expert here. 

Having said that, all your suggestions sound good to me.  I would add in a few epidemiological case workers with rescources/powers to isolate the spreaders of disease.

I agree with your analysis of true Christianity as well, The old friend I mentioned would also have agreed with you.  Sadly hypocracy is rife; within my faith as well as yours.  I think it is pretty universal.  I may disagree with you on the nature of God, at least in the fine details, but we would both agree that God is not fooled as to the really caring folk and those who just put on a good show.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 07 2018 at 11:52am
If we just sit around and complain " we need to do more!"   nothing will happen.

If we can prioritize what is actually doable and would be effective,  then we need to organize and offer very specific demands of our leaders.  If we are smart about it we can actually get stuff done.  Avianflutalk.com could be where the movement comes from.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 07 2018 at 3:32pm
how do you prepare a country like the USA when you cant even look after your Poor sick NOW

free health care would go along way to PREVENT deaths that are happening as we type,

also how do you prep for something that might not happen ,

and ive said before many times 

we are the VIRUS killing the Planet,

maybe Mother Earth has had enough of our POLLUTING ways...........

cant say i blame her.....

and i'm an Athiest so i dont believe in 

ANYONES GOD 

and certainly dont believe in Heaven..............
12 Monkeys...............
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 09 2018 at 1:18am
What an interesting discussion. For my two penneth worth, here's what I think:

- history shows us during the Spanish flu that many people died from dehydration and starvation that could have survived the disease. People, including their own relatives and good Christian folk, were simply too frightened of the illness to help. 

- whilst I may say one thing, in theory, and in the comfort of my own home while we're all healthy, I may well do a completely different thing when faced with a new, deadly and highly contagious disease that we don't fully understand. Would I help my sick neighbour and risk bringing the bug home to my family? No, I don't think I would. And, for that matter, I wouldn't expect my neighbour to take the same risks to help me. 

- Prepping an entire country is, in my opinion, as much about having pre=laid plans and protocols in place before the disaster as it is having feet on the ground or meds in the cupboard. A country like America would need to be prepared to say shut the borders, ground all flights, quarantine communities that have the disease. But we all know that no government anywhere in the world will shut their borders until it's too late. The financial implications would be huge and potentially fatal to their economy and so the politicians will keep saying "one more day, and one more day"and then they'll realise that it's arrived. 

- I agree entirely with carbon20 in that the USA can't even look after the health of their own population in these settled times, so how can they possibly think they will manage in a pandemic? I suspect that pandemic preparation in the USA consists of having enough body bags, and enabling the fast mobilisation of enough troops to keep the infected in a containment area until they die. I doubt any form of medical assistance would be offered as congress could never agree on who should pay for it. Would they seriously be asking for proof of health insurance in a pandemic? Perhaps separating the ill into two camps, one for the insured and one for the others. 

- finally, as to the consequences of a global pandemic, I have to say that losing a significant percentage of the world's population would be a good thing. There are too many of us. Obviously I hope my family survives, as do we all, but to lose 50% would, in the long run, be good for us all. And I'm sorry if that offends anyone, but I truly believe that once the dust had settled, we'd all agree on that, although of course, the end wouldn't justify the means.

We none of us remember the plague epidemics in the 14th century because it has long passed from living memory and all we have are a few sketchy accounts, but we can all see the huge financial and social benefits that were there for the survivors. Feudal serfdom was broken, a man was able to rise through the strata of society and the common worker was able to finally achieve a living wage due to the shortage of available labour. Men and women were able to break away from the life they were born into and destined to die in, and were able to acquire property, rise through the social strata as a result of their own labours, reap the rewards and break the cycle of absolute poverty. The whole world runs on the concept of supply and demand, and it did even way back then. 
If it is to be, it is up to me.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 09 2018 at 2:57am
Agreed, KiwiMum!  I share the plan to risk manage.  When I was young and single, I was quite courageous.  Now I have a family and find I have far too much to lose.  So, I would be extremely careful now about risking my health and by association, that of my family.

I would try to be inventive; extreme barrier nursing for instance, but only if I could acquire sufficient protective clothing.  Recovered persons as nursing staff and quarrantined areas within my property would also be employed. 

But, there would be very strict and profoundly rigid rules.  There would be no serious risks taken.  I would attempt to take no risks at all.  If that were insufficient to help the sick - tough!  Sorry, but that is the truth.  Family first!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 09 2018 at 11:14am
I find it ironic....    you guys will blast a "Chrstian" that is rooting for a pandemic.   I agree it is downright evil to wish ill on so many people.

Yet how often do I see a post on here wanting half of our population to be killed off.   These people need to be called out just the same way!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 09 2018 at 12:50pm
I have been trying to be a bit more diplomatic than that, DeepThinker, but I do agree with you.

The world is seriously overpopulated.  We are poisoning it at an alarming rate.  We are deforesting it on a grand scale and wiping out numerous other species.  Nevertheless, population control can come from birth control if we are civilized about it. 

If not, Mother Nature will make us cut down our numbers the hard way.  There is a reason they call nature a Mother.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 09 2018 at 1:06pm
Deep thinker, too often on this site, there are people who want to make science about religion. Religion doesn't come into it. You are obviously a Christian, and I tick the Christian box on forms although I rarely go to church but I do try to live by the Christian moral code which I think is reasonable and commonsensical in the world we live in. 

Let's not make this a religious persecution. But there is a difference between waiting for the rapture and for wishing for a dramatic reduction in the world's population. The region where I live is very religious and the first settlers here in 1850 based the whole district on religion and in order to settle here (I'm in the South Island of New Zealand, near Christchurch) you had to be a proven church goer. As a result 170 years later, religion and lots of small weird churches are everywhere.

Many of my friends are creationalists and very devout. To give them their dues, I have never once been preached to or has anyone tried to convert me. The women I know are warm, kind and generous and I value their friendship. 

However, waiting for the rapture is about personal fulfillment and reaching heaven to be with God, it's not about the welfare of the planet. Wishing for a population reduction is about life on earth after the terrible event, about the survival of our planet and the people and animals on it. There is a huge difference. 

As for it being evil to wish ill on half the planet. It's not evil it's inevitable. Eventually, whether it's in our lifetimes or not, something will happen that will knock back our population numbers hugely. It might be a pandemic, or a supervolcanic eruption that triggers a nuclear winter - and trust me, that would be the worst end possible with prolonged starvation and civil and international unrest on a scale previously undreamed of, or it could be an asteroid strike or a nuclear war. However it happens, it will happen since it has happened over and over again throughout history (not the nuclear option obviously). 

As for people wishing for the rapture, I heard about the group who all believed the rapture was going to happen last year and they paid an enterprising soul who was a heathen to look after their animals. This heathen, being a good businessman, took payment up front - which of course you would do since they won't be around to pay you afterwards. The big day came and went and they were all still here and so went and asked for their money back. Their attention was then drawn to the small print which clearly stated that in the event of a non event, no refunds would be given. Genius.


If it is to be, it is up to me.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 09 2018 at 6:58pm
Yes Yes Yes...a Pandemic is coming it has been coming since the last one 1918. When we have this new Pandemic, yes a Pandemic will be coming again.

Kilt5 you do not help by posting "A Pandemic is Coming" because that is what this whole Forum is about...A Pandemic is coming Avian Flu or something else. You are being repetitive, now if you could tell us what is coming now and we could do more prepping that would be helpful but are you just posting this to get attention.

Look KiWi mom and Techno make good points. I am not sure why Christians are always the target to blame that we do not take care of all ills. Christians will have to take care of their families too.

No Government will be able to take care of a Pandemic that is why we are all here. We will have to take care of ourselves and yes I am a Christian but will I go and take care of my fellow man...no everyone will have to take care of themselves. But am I a bad person or a bad Christian because I do this...I think not. People who live in glass houses should not cast stones. Kilt5 will you be taking care of contagious people around you or will you stay home and care for your family? I bet you will not, but do not cast stones at Christians just because you think we are easy targets.

Yes a Pandemic is coming big deal many will die some will live just what happens. I have prepped but will it make a difference maybe yes maybe no. At my old age I believe what my grandma said about death, The Old Must, The Young May.

Try a different more helpful subject Kilt5 like what to do when a Pandemic Hits.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 09 2018 at 9:25pm
well said Flu Mom....what will be will be
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 10 2018 at 12:19am
Originally posted by KiwiMum KiwiMum wrote:


However, waiting for the rapture is about personal fulfillment and reaching heaven to be with God, it's not about the welfare of the planet. Wishing for a population reduction is about life on earth after the terrible event, about the survival of our planet and the people and animals on it. There is a huge difference. 

As for it being evil to wish ill on half the planet. It's not evil it's inevitable. Eventually, whether it's in our lifetimes or not, something will happen that will knock back our population numbers hugely. It might be a pandemic, or a supervolcanic eruption that triggers a nuclear winter - and trust me, that would be the worst end possible with prolonged starvation and civil and international unrest on a scale previously undreamed of, or it could be an asteroid strike or a nuclear war. However it happens, it will happen since it has happened over and over again throughout history (not the nuclear option obviously).


KiwiMum I am sorry if my comment was a bit harsh and too direct.   I  personally don't care for most "rapture theology" out there.   I agree that it can lead to selfish inward looking thinking.   I don't see how it serves society or the common good.  Besides it isn't very biblical it doesn't even have deep historical roots.   For the most part it is a modern American way of thinking.   I don't trust American made religions :)

Morally and ethically I see a big difference between acknowledging the inevitable and looking to see what good could come of it  versus actually wishing for it.   In ethics this is touching on  "law of double effect".   While sometimes it is okay to cause a bad outcome if your intentions are good....    it is never permissible to do an evil act to bring out a good outcome.   While good could come from a pandemic...   the pandemic itself is always an inherent evil. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 10 2018 at 2:14am
Agree  Deepthinker with above, however,

I don't know if you can call a pandemic "inherent evil"

To me to call it evil implies a thought process, 


When its just nature, 

However, if a pandemic virus was manmade for the soul intent of killing billions, that person would be evil because he has Intent, 

where as the virus is just the weapon he uses,

a gun is not "evil" only the person using it in an evil way

Just my humble opinion.....Wink

Nothing to do with thread really lol
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 10 2018 at 3:11am
Deep thinker, I didn't take offence at all at what you said. I just enjoy a good discussion. It's nice to see a new thread with some personal opinions in it. 
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