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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic

Aussie Flu

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Kilt5 View Drop Down
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    Posted: June 20 2019 at 3:50am
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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 20 2019 at 10:43pm
Thanks Kilt.

Weeks early, and so much higher than normal years. It is scary.
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Kilt5 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 21 2019 at 2:21pm
This could be a pandemic
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Albert View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 21 2019 at 2:25pm
It does indeed seem like a new pandemic strain.
https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk
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Kilt5 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 21 2019 at 2:55pm
this from the UK

The leader of England’s emergency care doctors has called for the NHS to take action now to prepare for a possible flu epidemic as Australia battles an early outbreak of the virus.

The latest figures for Australia show nearly 94,000 confirmed cases of flu so far this year, far above the levels seen in previous years – last year the total number was around 12,000. Weekly figures for the beginning of June are on a par with the numbers of cases normally seen in July and August, the height of the Australian flu season.

A hundred and forty seven people have died from the flu in the first five months of the year, compared with 23 at the same point in 2018.

The very high figures may just show an early-peaking outbreak rather than an epidemic but are causing concern in the UK.

Royal College of Emergency Medicine Taj Hassan said the Australian figures looked “very scary indeed. We struggled last year [in A&Es] in incredbly benevolent circumstances. I am not sure that is going to happen this year. It is very important that we prepare.

“Perhaps we need to start vaccination early and set aside some money.”

https://www.hsj.co.uk/workforce/nhs-warned-to-act-now-on-australian-flu/7025378.article
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 21 2019 at 10:04pm
Flying back to Australia today

Had 4x strain flu shot 6 weeks ago...


12 Monkeys...............
1995 ‧ Science fiction film/Thriller ‧ 2h 11m a must for AFT
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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 21 2019 at 10:57pm
Last year Australia seems to have had a mild flu session. The following look at the death rate for last year (so we can compare this year's rate) is from Australian Influenza Surveillance Report - 2018 National Influenza Season Summary

Quote The number of deaths reported in notified cases of laboratory confirmed influenza to the NNDSS in 2018 to date (n=57) was considerably lower than the 5 year average (378). Furthermore, as a ratio to all notified cases, deaths in 2018 (1 death per 847 notifications) was also much lower than the 5 year historic range (range: 1 death per 457 notifications in 2015 to 1 death per 218 notifications in 2017).


Deaths reported in notified cases to the NNDSS have largely been in the elderly. The median age of deaths reported in notified cases was 80 years (range: 1 to 100 years), with 75% of deaths in people aged 65 years and older.


The number of influenza-associated deaths reported to the NNDSS does not represent the true mortality associated with this disease. The number of deaths is reliant on the follow up of cases to determine the outcome of their infection. The follow up of cases is not a requirement of notification, and are only inclusive of laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza. Due to retrospective revision, the variation across jurisdictions in methodology, representativeness and timeliness of death data, and reporting of an outcome of infection not being a requirement of notification, year on year comparisons of deaths in notified cases of influenza may not be reliable.
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Kilt5 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 21 2019 at 10:59pm
it was mild - but just look at that graph - and the season is just starting

I call it an epidemic
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 23 2019 at 1:30pm
I believe it's the A H3N2 strain that's causing the problems. It is covered in the flu shot this year. The shot we can have here in NZ has 4 strains in it. Because of the unprecedented demand for the jab in light of the Aussies all coming down with it, has meant NZ has run short of jabs and so about 2 weeks ago they stopped giving it out and are keeping remaining shots for the high risk groups only.

My sister is in Australia and she had this flu about 2 months ago and it was really nasty. She ended up with a lung infection on the back of it.
If it is to be, it is up to me.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 23 2019 at 7:02pm
Does anyone know for SURE the Strain? Do they have this strain in their vaccine this year.    Will the U.S. have this strain in their vaccine for Fall 2019?

Kiwimum did your sister have the flu shot? Sorry she was so sick!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 25 2019 at 1:43am
No she didn't have the flu shot. I've had the quadruple flu shot that became available here in April. It contains the A H3N2. I'm about to fly to Europe so I'm glad I've had it.

It took my sister a few weeks to get over it and the doctor was worried that it might turn to pneumonia. Thankfully it didn't.
If it is to be, it is up to me.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2019 at 6:38pm
Glad you had the shot.   A few years back I got the flu in September before I could get the "new" shot. I got pneumonia and went into the hospital for 3 days and out of work for a month!!! I get the flu shot as soon as the new shot is available. I NOW always get the quadrivalent shot too. Have a good time in Europe.
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