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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Now tracking the Aussie Flu.

Big jump in cases of H7N9 in China

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oriel View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oriel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Big jump in cases of H7N9 in China
    Posted: January 09 2017 at 7:54am
Just found this report this morning and was shocked by the increase in cases.

********ca/2017/01/hk-chp-china-reports-additional-83-h7n9.html

83 previously unreported cases in China 
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The Centre for Health Protection (CHP) of the Department of Health today (January 9) received notification from the National Health and Family Planning Commission that 83 additional human cases of avian influenza A(H7N9), including 25 deaths, were recorded last month. The CHP again urged the public to maintain strict personal, food and environmental hygiene both locally and during travel.
 
The 54 male and 29 female patients aged from 23 to 91 from Jiangsu (52 cases), Zhejiang (21 cases), Anhui (nine cases) and Fujian (one case) had their onset from November 22 to December 29, 2016. Among them, 58 reported exposure to poultry or poultry market while the source of infection of 17 cases was under investigation.
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read announcement: http://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201701/09/P2017010900747.htm
In all things there is the possibility of evolution or revolution
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 09 2017 at 12:48pm
Yep - it seems to have hit the ground running this flu season

"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 09 2017 at 4:45pm
Originally posted by jacksdad jacksdad wrote:

Yep - it seems to have hit the ground running this flu season


The Chinese Death Star continues to play games with its live poultry markets.  Guess it is hard to break a tradition that is thousands of years old.  

Wait until Drumpf is sworn in, I'm guessing that the PRC will make some type of move against Taiwan out of the box.   I'm guessing a blockade, if not outright invasion. 


The Trump-Tsai call indicates the eruption of the Taiwan independence tendency by Tsai authorities. The mainland should mobilize all possible measures to squeeze Taiwan's diplomacy as well as deal a heavy blow to Taiwan's economy. It should also impose military pressure on Taiwan and push it to the edge of being reunified by force, so as to effectively affect the approval rating of the Tsai administration. 


We should take Tsai's denial of the 1992 Consensus as a turning point and end the disturbance of Taiwan independence on cross-Straits ties. The Democratic Progressive Party should be made to realize that if it continues to engage in Taiwan independence moves, the political costs will be more than it could bear.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 09 2017 at 11:01pm
The South China Sea is getting to be a scary place. The next few years should be interesting, especially with China beefing up it's navy.
"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 09 2017 at 11:42pm
There is definitely something different going on this flu season with respect to H7N9, and the Chinese New Year celebrations will start soon, heralding the movement of huge numbers of people across Asia - with traditional gifts of poultry.


"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 10 2017 at 12:52am
The Chinese are making moves in Sri Lanka,they just took out a 99 year lease on a Port the locals are furious....I was amazed at how many Chinese where there when I visited,
12 monkeys!!!!!
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Oriel View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Oriel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 10 2017 at 9:44am
The official Chinese report (h7n9 portion) is confusing and, as far as I am concerned, raises more questions then answers.

http://www.chp.gov.hk/files/pdf/2017_avian_influenza_report_vol13_wk01.pdf

My questions
  • Why are their own totals inconsistent throughout the report?
  • Why are onset dates absent?
  • Why is the largest demographic group in China 20-29year almost absent?
    • maybe not suseptable
    • maybe only mild cases in this demographic 
    • ???
  • Why were so many cases not reported in the media or official channels as they are discovered?
My concerns

  • One province seems to be responsible for aprox, 50% of cases...
  • Is this the tip of the iceberg?
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jacksdad View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 10 2017 at 10:36am
We have seen a trend toward older people falling ill with H7N9 in it's current form - I believe the median age is well into the sixties. It's still acting like regular seasonal flu in that respect, whereas pandemic flu viruses often cause serious illness in younger, healthier adults, possibly due to the initiation of cytokine storms.

Who knows what's really going on when we're relying on the Chinese to tell us what's going on within their borders. You're right about Jiangsu Province getting hit especially hard though - new strain, better monitoring/reporting, or...?





"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ariish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 11 2017 at 7:17am
I suspect one reason you don't see it in younger people is that they are more likely to buy processed chickens from a retailer than live chickens from a wet market. The younger Chinese are looking to the West and are not as traditional as their elders>
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 11 2017 at 5:00pm
Still sick getting on for a week now ,very weak hard to do anything physical,glad it's nice and warm ,pity anyone with this virus in a cold climate
12 monkeys!!!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 11 2017 at 10:17pm
Sorry it is dragging on Carbon.

Traditionally, it seems, that in the US the standard remedy is chicken soup Confused, but I am not sure if that should be recommended given the thread subject.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 11 2017 at 10:46pm
Arirish - are you still having trouble logging on?
"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 12 2017 at 8:08am
South China Morning Post (Hong Kong-China) http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/2060321/health-chief-warns-city-brace-peak-flu-season?spm=0.0.0.0.lCdiBZ First quarter of the year is flu-peak for Hong Kong. Both H5N8 (Europe) and H7N9 (China) are not spreading human-to-human. In Europe H3N2 is widespread. When H5N8 and H3N2 mix in (for example) pigs we may have a larger problem. In China feeding pigs with dead birds is asking for problems. (But also cats and dogs could become a mixing vessel for flu (H1N1/H3N2 and bird H7N9, H5N6 or H5N8).

http://www.who.int/csr/don/03-january-2017-ah7n9-china/en/ WHO-update january 3 2017:

WHO risk assessment

Most human cases are exposed to avian influenza A(H7N9) virus through contact with infected poultry or contaminated environments, including live poultry markets. Since the virus continues to be detected in animals and environments, further human cases can be expected. Although small clusters of human cases with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus have been reported including those involving healthcare workers, current epidemiological and virological evidence suggests that this virus has not acquired the ability of sustained transmission among humans. Therefore further community level spread is considered unlikely.

Human infections with the avian influenza A(H7N9) virus are unusual and need to be monitored closely in order to identify changes in the virus and/or its transmission behaviour to humans as it may have a serious public health impact.

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 12 2017 at 6:20pm
Originally posted by EdwinSm, EdwinSm, wrote:

Sorry it is dragging on Carbon.

 Traditionally, it seems, that in the US the standard remedy is chicken soupConfused, but I am not sure if that should be recommended given the thread subject.

yep had the soup,got a good wife great cook Smile 
12 monkeys!!!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 13 2017 at 11:54am
JD-I still can' log in!77ESR
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