Bird flu could hit U.S. - 10/26/2005

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10/26/2005

Bird flu could hit U.S. next year 

USA Today (excerpt)

DENVER (AP) � As bird flu is spread continent-to-continent by wild birds, 

the seasonal migration that is normally one of nature's wonders is 

becoming something scary.

Could bird flu reach North America through migrating birds? Biologists in 

Alaska and Canada are keeping an eye out and say it's possible by next 

year.

Scientists from several agencies have been monitoring large flocks in the 

northern part of this continent since last summer, collecting both live 

birds and thousands of samples from bird droppings. The results of those 

tests are pending, but so far scientists have not found the virus that is 

spreading across Asia.

Of course, the bigger fear is that bird flu will mutate into a flu that is both 

contagious and deadly to people and which would quickly spread around 

the globe through international travel. The current bird flu is not easily 

spread to people.

But scientists are studying the virus' transmission among birds as well. In 

the United States, a consortium of government agencies is seeking $5 

million over the next three years to test birds along their migratory routes 

in the Lower 48 states beginning next spring.

"The patterns (of the virus) in Asia right now would not suggest that it 

would come over to North America this fall," said Christopher Brand, chief 

of field and lab research for the U.S. Geological Survey's National Wildlife 

Health Center in Madison, Wis.

Here's why: Bird flu was observed spreading from domestic poultry to 

wild birds in Asia last summer in northern breeding grounds in Siberia. 

Most of those birds now are migrating south � along their distinctive 

routes called flyways � to India and Bangladesh; others follow 

southwestern routes to the eastern Mediterranean and even Africa.

So far, bird flu has been detected in both wild and domestic birds as far 

east as the Danube Delta in Romania. The virus was reported in poultry in 

Turkey, Romania and Russia.

"There has been a shift in the susceptibility of wild fowl to H5N1," 

acknowledged David Nabarro, chief U.N. coordinator for avian and human 

influenza.

Brand says that if those birds maintain the virus over the winter, they 

would have the opportunity to bring it back to northern nesting grounds 

in Siberia next spring and summer.

While most Siberian flocks don't try to cross the Pacific to North America, 

some do cross the narrow Bering Strait to Alaska.

If those birds mingle with birds from Alaska, "there is the possibility the 

virus could be transmitted to waterfowl or shorebirds that make their way 

here next fall," Brand said.

While many severely infected birds usually die within a few days and are 

unable to fly very far, other hardier varieties could carry the disease.

Among the Arctic species under suspicion are hardier, long-distance 

fliers like eiders, gulls and geese. "It probably will be spread by one that 

isn't killed very easily by it," Brand said

 http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2005-10-25-bird-flu-us_x .htm

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Guests Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Guest Group	Post Options Post Reply Quote Guests Thanks(0) Quote Reply Topic: Bird flu could hit U.S. - 10/26/2005 Posted: February 10 2006 at 10:50pm
	10/26/2005 Bird flu could hit U.S. next year USA Today (excerpt) DENVER (AP) � As bird flu is spread continent-to-continent by wild birds, the seasonal migration that is normally one of nature's wonders is becoming something scary. Could bird flu reach North America through migrating birds? Biologists in Alaska and Canada are keeping an eye out and say it's possible by next year. Scientists from several agencies have been monitoring large flocks in the northern part of this continent since last summer, collecting both live birds and thousands of samples from bird droppings. The results of those tests are pending, but so far scientists have not found the virus that is spreading across Asia. Of course, the bigger fear is that bird flu will mutate into a flu that is both contagious and deadly to people and which would quickly spread around the globe through international travel. The current bird flu is not easily spread to people. But scientists are studying the virus' transmission among birds as well. In the United States, a consortium of government agencies is seeking $5 million over the next three years to test birds along their migratory routes in the Lower 48 states beginning next spring. "The patterns (of the virus) in Asia right now would not suggest that it would come over to North America this fall," said Christopher Brand, chief of field and lab research for the U.S. Geological Survey's National Wildlife Health Center in Madison, Wis. Here's why: Bird flu was observed spreading from domestic poultry to wild birds in Asia last summer in northern breeding grounds in Siberia. Most of those birds now are migrating south � along their distinctive routes called flyways � to India and Bangladesh; others follow southwestern routes to the eastern Mediterranean and even Africa. So far, bird flu has been detected in both wild and domestic birds as far east as the Danube Delta in Romania. The virus was reported in poultry in Turkey, Romania and Russia. "There has been a shift in the susceptibility of wild fowl to H5N1," acknowledged David Nabarro, chief U.N. coordinator for avian and human influenza. Brand says that if those birds maintain the virus over the winter, they would have the opportunity to bring it back to northern nesting grounds in Siberia next spring and summer. While most Siberian flocks don't try to cross the Pacific to North America, some do cross the narrow Bering Strait to Alaska. If those birds mingle with birds from Alaska, "there is the possibility the virus could be transmitted to waterfowl or shorebirds that make their way here next fall," Brand said. While many severely infected birds usually die within a few days and are unable to fly very far, other hardier varieties could carry the disease. Among the Arctic species under suspicion are hardier, long-distance fliers like eiders, gulls and geese. "It probably will be spread by one that isn't killed very easily by it," Brand said http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2005-10-25-bird-flu-us_x .htm

Guests Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Guest Group	Post Options Post Reply Quote Guests Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: February 10 2006 at 11:39pm
	Commentary . H5 Wild Bird Flu In Canada Causes More Concern Recombinomics Commentary November 1, 2005 The H5N1 virus, which scientists say kills 100 per cent of the birds it infects...... A wildlife surveillance program that began in August tested 4,800 ducks in six migratory-bird flyways across Canada. Initial results have found an H5-type virus in 28 ducks in Quebec and another five in Manitoba, said Mr. Clark. Results from the other provinces have yet to come back but they, too, are expected to show some H5 infection. Some form of H5 virus is normally found in about 7.4 per cent of all wild fowl, said Mr. Clark. The above comments are additional causes for concern. The misconception that H5N1 kills 100% of the birds it affects is widely quoted in the media, but is clearly incorrect. The WHO warning in the fall of 2004 was due to the fact that H5N1 from a fatal human case in Vietnam did not cause death in experimental ducks. Instead the ducks appeared to be healthy and excreted high levels of stable H5N1. This concern was borne out by surveys of waterfowl in Vietnam which showed that 70% were H5N1 positive. The recent mission report from Russia also detailed about two dozen species that were H5N1 positive when shot down by hunters, indicating that asymptomatic waterfowl was widespread. Further support came from the rapid spread of H5N1 to new areas via migratory birds. After being detected in long range migratory birds in May at Qinghai Lake, H5N1 was then reported for the first time in Russia, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia. Now countries in Europe are reporting H5N1 infections for the first time. Although some serotype of influenza is found in a significant portion of wild birds, the H5 serotype is not found in 7.4%. In Canada, there have been about 120 deposits at GenBank and only two are H5. One (H5N2) was detected in 1980 and the other (H5N9) was detected in 1966. Thus, there have been no H5 isolates reported in the past 25 years, although that is when most of the deposits from Canada were collected. The above comments also fail to detail how many of the 4800 birds have been tested or the frequency of H5 in the positive provinces or detail the number of species. Publication of this data would allow for a more accurate analysis of the H5 data collected thus far. http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11010501/H5N1_WBF_Canada_M ore_Concerns.html

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Corn Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1219	Post Options Post Reply Quote Corn Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: February 11 2006 at 12:06am
	(Quote from article at top above. ) Of course, the bigger fear is that bird flu will mutate into a flu that is both contagious and deadly to people and which would quickly spread around the globe through international travel. From exports, travel, black market and illegal immigrants. By the time the birds srrive next year it will be people giving it to the birds. I think we're missing the point thinking the birds will come with the flu first here in the US. The biggest threat would be people spreading the virus. . By the way, What type of precautions do the sample takers use to make sure they don't spread BF amongst the birds when they are handling so many species of in a day testing?. ie new gloves each bird, etc. Or do they just protect people? The testers could contaminate many foul looking for a few.
	Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.

Guests Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Guest Group	Post Options Post Reply Quote Guests Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: February 11 2006 at 12:10am
	Influenza Pandemic of 1918 The influenza pandemic of 1918, also known as �Spanish� flu, killed more rapidly than any other form of influenza known up to that time. This particular strain of influenza was especially dangerous to young adults. The National Office of Vital Statistics in the United States recorded the distribution of deaths during 1917 showing that the highest levels of morbidity occurred at the extremes of infancy and old age, and was very low in between these two age groups. By 1918, morbidity changed dramatically, and was now highest for the very young, and higher yet for persons between the ages of twenty and forty. The elderly appeared to be spared, for the most part. Thus, the Spanish Flu had two outstanding characteristics: 1) it killed millions of people and 2) most of them were in the prime of their life. This distinctive strain of influenza swept across the face of the earth in three major waves between 1918 and 1919. Although it is uncertain as to where the first wave in the spring of 1918 originated, all available evidence indicates that it appeared in the United States in March of 1918. It attracted very little attention because pneumonic complications were few and deaths even fewer; it appeared as no more than just another bout with the kind of respiratory disease that so often circulates during that time of the year. Only later, after the second and third killer waves appeared did statisticians notice that an unusually large proportion of the flu and pneumonia victims were young adults. The second wave occurred during March and April and expanded across North America, temporarily disrupting the operation of some military camps and a few factories. It was during this wave that the disease spread throughout most of the rest of the world. According to records, the disease reached epidemic proportions in Europe in April. It swept across the continent in the spring and summer, and the number of casualties was devastating. In Switzerland alone during the month of July, 53,000 people succumbed to the Spanish Flu. In late August, the severity of the infection changed, suddenly transforming into the most dangerous strain (or strains) ever recorded. It occurred in three major parts of the North Atlantic almost simultaneously: Freetown. Sierra Leone, where local West Africans were brought together with British, South African, East African, and Australian soldiers and sailors; Brest, France, which was the chief port for Allied troops; and Boston, Massachusetts, one of America�s busiest embarkation ports and a major crossroads for military and civilian personnel of every nation involved with the Allied war effort. Massive troop movements and the disruption of significant segments of the population during World War I played an important role in the transmission of the disease. The Origins of the 1957 H2N2 Pandemic In May 1957, an epidemic of a disease presumed to be influenza was reported in Hong Kong. After several months of investigation, most epidemiologists agreed that a strain of influenza virus had surfaced in China early in 1957. Meanwhile, the disease was spreading outward from Southeast Asia. The new strain of influenza, initially referred to as �Asian Flu� had rapidly spread from Hong Kong to Japan, the Philippines, Malaya, and Indonesia by the end of May 1957. By June, there were numerous reports of influenza among passengers and crew on board ships that had departed from East Asian ports. During June, the disease also spread though India and the Middle East. Port cities were among the first places to be affected. Given the nature of international trade, the disease rapidly spread towards England, and reached the United States. The Asian strain of influenza continued to be the most pronounced type A variant internationally for more than a decade. It was at this time that epidemiologists and biostatisticians seriously started to explore methods of devising an early warning detection system, at least within the context of determining the severity of an influenza epidemic and its geographical locale. The 1976 Swine Flu "Epidemic" The details surrounding the swine-influenza "outbreak" of 1976 is notable because the event lead to a major change in public health policy. While the exact origins and validity of the Swine Flu outbreak are unknown, many public health and medical researchers believed that the type of swine influenza that was recovered from human victims during the January 1976 outbreak at Fort Dix, New Jersey was so closely related to the influenza strain that caused more than 500,000 deaths in the United States during the 1918-19 pandemic that to ignore the possibility of a repeat of that epidemic seemed irresponsible. As the result, a nationwide inoculation program was instituted. However, the establishment of such a program was not easy to implement. In spite of identification of swine flu the proposal for a nationwide inoculation program gained little support at the federal level during April and May of that year. Although President Gerald Ford espoused the need for such a program, there was a consensus among many Congressmen that such a program was not warranted. The vaccine program did not officially begin until October. As history would show, the predicted epidemic failed to materialize. However, millions became vaccinated, some with devastaing health consequences. Guillian-Barre Syndrom, a decending paralysis, was not one of the predicted outcomes, yet occurred with a high degree of frequency at the height of the vaccination program. The vaccine was produced by Merck, Inc., but the insurance policy agaist such an eventuality was underwritten by the United States govenment. The public ended up paying out millions of dollars in health care benefits to affected individuals. http://www.medicalecology.org/diseases/influenza/print_influ enza.htm#sect2.1

Guests Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Guest Group	Post Options Post Reply Quote Guests Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: February 11 2006 at 12:42am
	Canada plays down bird flu scare Last Update: Friday, October 21, 2005. 4:00pm ABC News Online The federal Government may impose a blanket ban on all live bird imports after the discovery of Canadian pigeons with bird flu antibodies in Melbourne.Officials in Toronto say Canada met all international requirements for the pigeons that were exported to Australia. Three of the pigeons were found to have antibodies for avian flu but quarantine officials say there is no health threat to the public or the local bird population.Another four of the birds had strains of newcastle disease and the affected birds have been destroyed. Agriculture Minister Peter McGauran says Canada's testing regime is to blame. "I'm reassured that the Australian system works so well but I am disturbed that the Canadian authorities certified these birds as disease free," he said. But the spokesman for Canada's Minister of Agriculture insisted that Canada had not been negligent. The pigeons had been tested before they left Canada, but Canadian labs only look for the live virus, which is dangerous. When the birds arrived in Australia they were found to have antibodies for avian flu, but the spokesman said that antibodies were not dangerous. Jim Clark from Canada's Food Inspection Agency says his organisation does not have to test for antibodies if Canada has already been declared free of the disease. "In Canada's case we are free of the avian influenza virus and have been since May 2004," Dr Clark said. The Federal Government today demanded answers from Canadian officials over the consignment. Prime Minister John Howard says a temporary ban on all bird imports from Canada has been imposed. "Mr McGauran, the Minister for Agriculture, will raise this matter with the Canadian High Commissioner," he said. "Now that's just a short-term immediate response measure. I'm not suggesting that's going to be long-term, it will depend on those inquiries," he said. None of the birds actually has the bird flu virus but the antibodies mean they have been in contact with the virus at some point. Canada does not export any live birds or poultry to Australia, except for occasional small shipments of show pigeons. The rest of the pigeons are being sent back to Canada. http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200510/s1487872.htm

Guests Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Guest Group	Post Options Post Reply Quote Guests Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: February 11 2006 at 12:48am
	LIVE AVIAN INFLUENZA VIRUS NOT PRESENT IN EXPORTED CANADIAN PIGEONS 2005-10-25 - Removal of import restrictions Ottawa, October 21, 2005 - The Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) would like to clarify recent reports on the presence of avian influenza antibodies in three pigeons out of a shipment of 102 pigeons recently exported from Canada to Australia. None of the exported pigeons were infected with or carrying live avian influenza virus. The birds were neither clinically ill nor capable of making other birds or humans ill. This determination was confirmed by Canadian and Australian animal health experts. As no threat to human or animal health is present, Canada believes the interim import restrictions are unfortunate as Canada followed all Australian certification requirements for importing live birds. Canada remains free of highly pathogenic avian influenza, including the H5N1 strain, which has been the focus of international attention. Additional blood tests conducted by Australian authorities had confirmed the presence of generic AI antibodies in the birds. This finding indicates that the birds were likely exposed to an AI virus at some point in their life. Because pigeons are commonly raised outdoors, this finding is not surprising. Exposure to wild birds, which are known carriers of the virus, would result in the development of antibodies. Since the announcement by Australia, Canadian officials have had ongoing bilateral discussions with their Australian counterparts in hopes of resuming full trade in live birds as soon as possible. Canada and Australia are committed to working together, and animal disease experts from both countries will meet over the weekend to discuss what, if any, actions are required to lift the trade restrictions. While both countries are sensitive to the international concerns associated with AI, actions must be based on sound science. http://www.inspection.gc.ca/english/corpaffr/newcom/2005/200 51021e.shtml

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	Summary of Canadian Findings of H5 Virus in Wild, Migratory Birds To date, two types of H5 viruses have been identified in the wild bird survey - H5N3 and H5N1. It is of critical importance to note that in all cases, these viruses have been clearly characterized by scientists as low pathogenic, North American strain. This strain is similar to other H5N1 strains identified in North America in the past. It is not the highly pathogenic H5N1 Asian subtype, which has been associated with significant disease in wild and domestic birds that has infected and killed people. In fact, the North American strain is very different to the Asian strain and scientists have characterized approximately 15% structural differences between the two strains. In genetic terms, this percentage difference is considered to be very substantial. These laboratory results are confirmed by the absence of any increased mortality observed in Canadian birds. All North American samples originated from healthy birds. This can also be attributed to the low pathogenic nature of the North American strain, as opposed to the highly pathogenic Asian strain. (excerpt) http://www.inspection.gc.ca/english/anima/heasan/disemala/av flu/2005wildsauv/virtype.shtml