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Can hurricanes destroy the US ?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 07 2017 at 8:49pm
IRMA moving north
but continuing to take a strong westerly tack
heck
this monster could actually end up in the Gulf at this rate
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 07 2017 at 9:28pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOmG93NyX7M MrMBB333 latest update, Irma moving inland in the US after Florida bringing floods etc. 

Reports from Sint Maarten Dutch/French island in the Caribean;
-government, telecommunication, (air)port collapsed
-Jose expected saterday
-most people out of housing, food, water

Dutch and French help on its way but growing fear of health, public order problems. 

In some islands people had to tie themselves to the strongest things they could find to avoid to be blown away. Number of dead and missing may be very high.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQlGj5pHJVk Paul Beckwith on how to keep informed, were the strongest wind is in a hurricane, google earth as info on how high a ground is; most of Florida may end up under water-damages in the hundreds of billions....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyja1mc-W6s DAHBOO77; some nuclear plants shut down, people trying to leave Florida-once the storm starts you do not want to be in a car ! Jose could follow Irma on its way to Florida. Chemical leakages may make hit regions unliveble...

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 08 2017 at 2:09am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EL_2SiAU0Gg M8.1 hit Mexico at the Pacific coast near Guatemala. 


https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/905928442251763713 meteorologist wondering if the Irma damage could reach a trillion US$.
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 08 2017 at 5:08am
This is amazing...

http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/hurricane-scientists-have-never-seen-an-image-like-this-before/ar-AArtxSw?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp


For the first time in modern history, three hurricanes in the Atlantic are lined up in the most dangerous of ways, according to Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 08 2017 at 6:54am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jc930p8euBw DAHBOO77-update. 

Andrew 1992 cat 5:             Irma 2017 cat 4:
Max wind=165 mph             185 mph
stormdiameter 400miles       650miles
74mph  wind radius 45 miles 75 miles
time over Florida 4hrs           24+hrs

The hurricane Irma that is expected to make a landfall in the United States, is going to "devastate" the country, the chief of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) said on Friday.

FEMA Administrator Brock Long said at a press conference that the hurricane will leave portions of Florida without electricity for days, adding that over 100,000 residents of the state will need shelter.

DJ; I hope that the shelter provided will offer enough protection. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFWPKyzNq6c Dr.James Hansen "storms of my grandchildren" https://www.facebook.com/jimehansen/ and https://www.democracynow.org/2017/8/30/ex_nasa_scientist_james_hansen_there

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/07/hurricane-irma-live-latest-updates-caribbean

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 08 2017 at 12:29pm
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 08 2017 at 11:08pm
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 09 2017 at 1:22am
MrMBB333 with history of stormsurges https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IBx5slkkU8

also warning for alligators in Florida after flooding ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgYG-6D-jaU

NHC-new disturbance west of Africa http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

BPEarthWatch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdqAuHztifc Risk-maps only go to 10 feet surge, expected is 12 feet surge plus extreme rain and up to 35-40 feet waves. 
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 09 2017 at 7:11am
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 09 2017 at 7:30am
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 09 2017 at 10:26pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sngKWNDIdg
MrMBB333; Jose moving north-strikes New York/Massachusets sept 18 ? (DJ-models do not show another new hurricane forming in the Atlantic coming week, but http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5)
MrMBB333; forward speed Irma half as fast = double the rain amounts for Florida. Irma regaining strenght. Expect sinkholes and "waterworld".

BPEartWatch; Irma moving more west than expected staying more above hot Gulf-water=bigger chance "Irma" for going to cat.4 (or even 5) !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfSLaopV3hw Temperature giving Irma extra strength 32C /89,6F water (Katia could move into the Pacific as tropical depression)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9GYivvuJis Paul Beckwith on tornadoes in "Irma".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39k56nB9X4k Dahboo77 hackers using oppertunity to hack US cybernet.


Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 10 2017 at 9:11pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akx5NhoDSJk MrMBB333 Irma did push oceanwater away from land-that water will return. Warning for an 82 feet /25 meter wave near Miami ? 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvdalIASU2s Dahboo77-update Jose moving towards Maine sept 19 ?




live radar


DJ-of course these weather-disasters are climate change related and (for that reason) not only a US problem. A economic crisis in the US due to these events is a global problem. Weather disasters are reported around the globe. To deal with that-trying to limit damage only international cooperation can mean enough.


Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2017 at 6:19am
Allthough "Irma" is not over yet https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en#y=32.8333;x=-78.7953;z=6;t=4;m=sat;r=0;s=0;o=0;b=0.00;n=0;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;ra=1; it is not longer a hurricane http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-11/half-floridians-without-power-state-braces-lengthiest-restoration-us-history Already, damage estimates suggest that Irma could enter the pantheon of costliest hurricanes in US history just two weeks after Hurricane Harvey accomplished a similar feat in the Gulf of Mexico. According to Bloomberg, Enki Research estimates for total damages dropped to $49 billion from $200 billion earlier.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season on Harvey:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Harvey Harvey caused at least 71 confirmed deaths; 1 in Guyana,[1] and 70 in the United States.[2][3] FEMA director Brock Long called Harvey the worst disaster in Texas history, and expected the recovery to take many years.[4] Economic losses are preliminarily estimated at between $70[5] to $200 billion,[6] with a large portion of the losses sustained by uninsured homeowners.

Economic loss estimates

Based on current damage estimates made by multiple agencies, Hurricane Harvey is likely to be at least the second-most costly natural disaster in U.S. history, behind only Hurricane Katrina in 2005.[5][125] Moody's Analytics has estimated the total economic cost of the storm at $81 billion to $108 billion or more; most of the economic losses are damage to homes and commercial property.[5] USA Today reported an AccuWeather estimate of $190 billion, released August 31.[126] On September 3, Texas state governor Greg Abbott estimated that damages will be between $150 billion and $180 billion, surpassing the $120 billion that it took to rebuild New Orleansafter Katrina.[127][128] According to weather analytics firm Planalytics, lost revenue to Houston area retailers and restaurants alone will be approximately $1 billion. The Houston area controls 4% of the spending power in the United States.[129]

A significant portion of the storm's damages may be uninsured losses. Regular homeowner insurance policies generally exclude coverage for flooding, as the National Flood Insurance Program underwrites most flood insurance policies in the US.[130][131] Although the purchase of flood insurance is obligatory for federally guaranteed mortgages for homes within the 100-year flood plain, enforcement of the requirement is difficult and many homes, even within the 100-year flood plain, lack flood insurance.[130] In Harris County, Texas—which includes the city of Houston—only 15% of homes have flood insurance policies issued by the NFIP. Participation in the NFIP is higher, but still low, in neighboring Galveston (41%), Brazoria (26%), and Chambers Counties (21%).[130]


Both https://www.ventusky.com/?p=35.9;-73.8;5&l=wind&t=20170920/18">https://www.ventusky.com/?p=35.9;-73.8;5&l=wind&t=20170920/18 and http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS.CONUS-CED.WS10-MSLP  expect "Jose" reaching DC/NY area around sept 19. (DJ; both they and the NHC do not show new hurricanes forming west of Africa yet.) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9kWwyog182Q MrMBB333
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2017 at 7:24am
Another way to look at trends in hurricanes, statistics end 2016:

In the top 15 of most named storms since 1851 not less than 10 are from 2000 or later. Also in other lists there is an overpresence after 1990. 

Is the number of hurricanes, the strenght, related to climate change, I think so !

Also 9 of the 14 costiest weather disasters since 1980 were 2000 or later.

From the 32 costiest US hurricanes 12 are from 2000 and later. (The costs are adjusted to a 2010 baseline-population/building-boom also increase damages.)

It looks like 2017 is another very bad hurricane year. 
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2017 at 12:15pm
https://laughingsquid.com/hurricane-size-comparison/ and http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-five-big-crises-that-got-worse-while-the-world-watched-irma-20170911-gyeuxu.html

5. Climate change

Climate change gathers force. The evidence of the damage inflicted by man-made global warming grows stronger. "As recently as a decade ago, climate scientists had a motto that 'you can't attribute any single extreme event to global warming'," wrote three climate scientists in the Scientific American this week.

"By the time politicians and journalists started repeating that line, however, the science had moved on, so that we now can attribute individual events in a probabilistic sense," according to Michael Mann, Thomas Peterson and Susan Joy Hassal. "We know that the strongest storms are getting stronger, with roughly 8 meters per second increase in wind speed per degree Celsius of warming.

"And so it is not likely to be a coincidence that almost all of the strongest hurricanes on record (as measured by sustained wind speeds) for the globe, the Northern Hemisphere, the Southern Hemisphere, the Pacific, and now, with Irma, in the open Atlantic, have occurred over the past two years."

The UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres is due to meet Donald Trump next week and is expected to try to persuade him to keep the US committed to the Paris carbon treaty. If the evidence of Irma doesn't make an impression on Trump, it's hard to know what could. After all, it's received a lot of coverage.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/11/threat-climate-change-hurricane-harvey-irma-droughts

The problem is, our current business-as-usual trajectory takes us to a world that’s about 3.5C warmer. That is to say, even if we kept the promises we made at Paris (which Trump has already, of course, repudiated) we’re going to build a planet so hot that we can’t have civilisations. We have to seize the moment we’re in right now – the moment when we’re scared and vulnerable – and use it to dramatically reorient ourselves. The last three years have each broken the record for the hottest year ever measured – they’re a red flashing sign that says: “Snap out of it.” Not bend the trajectory somewhat, as the Paris accords envisioned, but simultaneously jam on the fossil fuel brakes and stand on the solar accelerator (and also find some metaphors that don’t rely on internal combustion).

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2017 at 10:50pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEYJdwgipus MrMBB333 with an update on "the disaster after the disaster". With 13 million households without electricity, maybe for a longer period, schools closed, roads blocked, farmland flooded-the damage must be large. Also a question on "what happened with the water".


https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/jose-potential-east-coast-threat Latest models indicate "Jose" making landfall in eastern Canada ? No new hurricanes forming ? We have to see how that goes. 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-11/all-food-gone-violence-erupts-caribbean-island-st-martin French and Dutch military try to get aid into St.Martin and restore public safety. Civil "unrest" may be a problem elsewere when infrastructure problems are not solved. 

People need information most of all. When can they get food and water, were can they sleep...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2017 at 10:56am
They might destroy the U.S, but they could certainly wipe out most of the South. The total cost in funding from .gov for Harvey in Texas and Irma in Florida and North Carolina could exceed 30 billion dollars.

So what happens, as two more move closer if every year we have these kind of disasters in the South?

There will not be the rush to finance aid we have seen for Hurricane Harvey in Texas. While they may not destroy the U.S. they could certainly cripple the budget. Indirectly, if we see conditions resulting without power (electricity) or adequate medical or police coverage, you will see looting, disease, and more anarchy in the streets.

Scary thought.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2017 at 11:18am
Spot on, Med.  Climate change is increasing the frequency and strength.  As the water gets hotter the storms get stronger - simple physics.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2017 at 12:14pm
Med, investers will not invest when a region has to many risks. Both for the US and the EU regions most at risk will see economic desinvestment and jobs move elsewere. 




With more cyclones, hurricanes etc shippinglanes will get disrupted-transport of goods more expensive. Climate change will effect foodproduction. Irma and Harvey means loss of agriculture land and products.

Tech, http://robinwestenra.blogspot.nl/2017/09/warming-of-north-sea.html The North Sea is getting hotter as well. We in Europe may see the consequences maybe tomorrow with the coming storm tomorrow. 

Stay safe !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2017 at 1:10pm
I have been expecting it DJ.  

Our storms are getting more frequent and nastier too. 

Luckily, up until now, there have been no hurricanes in the Uk.  So, when we do get them, as we will eventually, they will not reach category 5.  Well probably not, anyway.  

Buildings here tend to be stone, brick and concrete.  there are few wooden houses,  Timber framed buildings are getting more common, but we have got a stone one with 3 feet thick walls - deliberately.  

We are only 10 miles from the coast, but quite high.  So, as long as our buildings are fairly robust we should be fine, no matter what.  We own the highest point around, but our house is 30 or 40 foot below that .  Above us are dense trees - needed to prevent landslides in my opinion.  Lots of new build stuff seems to be, not only timber frame, but also in low lying coastal areas, or on valley sides where they have removed the trees above.  STUPID!

What is it like where you are?  How are sea/wind defenses?  Holland always struck me as low - but with great planning and defensive thinking.  Will you be OK when it all goes pear shaped?
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