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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic |
Can hurricanes destroy the US ? |
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Dutch Josh ![]() Senior Advisor Group ![]() Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 36152 |
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MrMBB333 with an update on power in Florida https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14eC4n0oXRY&t=39s in some areas may take more than 10 days.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WPNEsSplOc "Jose" could go a lot of directions. Models have lost grip. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bnHs-qgJ18Y Remains of "Irma" moving towards Texas-Houston-Gulf. (Could it become a hurricane again in the Gulf ? Katia did so after crossing Mexico and moving into the Pacific.) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Jwq2aQXK1E also BP Earthwatch surprised by the strenght of "Irma" ! Tech, we now have a lot of wind. But this is nothing compared to a hurricane. Since Arnhem is build on hills north of the (Lower)Rhine-river-with a lot of low lying land rain can be a problem. We have a "dyke" for the railway allthrough the city-so with a lot of rain water is a problem at some places. "Climate change were you are" makes a good item !
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh ![]() Senior Advisor Group ![]() Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 36152 |
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0PLNY-kMMss BPEarthWatch some models "Jose" moving towards New York tuesday. But a lot of uncertainty. "Jose" influencing some remains of "Irma" above Texas.
MrMBB333 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1tP7H6pWHE global view; Fukushima-Japan may see a cat-2 cyclone. Western Mexico a cat-4 but the mountains there will limit damage. On the Atlantic all models have a different story. "Jose" the be part of a large system of depressions and storms moving towards Europe ?
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh ![]() Senior Advisor Group ![]() Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 36152 |
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NHC; http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 and http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5
Latest discussions on models: BPEarthWatch; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qKjfQhMTE8w
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Satori ![]() Senior Advisor Group ![]() ![]() Joined: June 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 28645 |
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this JOSE guy is REALLY getting on my nerves
it was supposed to stay FAR out to sea but obviously isn't going to happen I''m not gonna take a direct hit but we certainly will get a lot of wind and rain http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/235324.shtml?cone this bad boy is really unpredictable |
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“The point of modern propaganda isn’t only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.” Gary Kasparov
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Dutch Josh ![]() Senior Advisor Group ![]() Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 36152 |
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Satori, "Jose" might become recordbreaking in duration. MrMBB333 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdHYv84X_2U "Jose" looks a lot like "Sandy" and new hurricanes forming on the Atlantic. (Impact on the Dominican Republic as a cat.4/5 in a week then moving to Florida ?)
Also "water doing bizar" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X04fMkRRD9U BPEarthWatch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3daMZxYOMMw
Also in the news: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-14/do-40000-lightning-strikes-over-socal-point-mega-quake-horizon California had a M3.3quake hours ago. Good information can save lives and limit damage !
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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CRS, DrPH ![]() Expert Level Adviser ![]() Joined: January 20 2014 Status: Offline Points: 17490 |
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Thanks for the update on Hurricane Jose!
That thing was wandering around in the Atlantic, but it sure looks like it is making a bee-line for New England! |
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CRS, DrPH
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Dutch Josh ![]() Senior Advisor Group ![]() Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 36152 |
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The longest duration of a hurricane was the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1899_San_Ciriaco_hurricane 27 days and 18hours. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Jose_(2017) started as a tropical wave august 31.
Other data on (Atlantic) hurricanes: http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news/world-news/1245-not-a-single-living-person-on-the-island-of-barbuda Some islands/area's will see strong population decrease. From the article: https://thinkprogress.org/harvey-superstorm-study-25e60eeb4bd7/ A study released Friday by Metstat, a weather-analysis company specializing in “detailed precipitation analysis” and “weather frequency analysis,” found that Harvey delivered a stunning once-in-25,000-year deluge over much of southeast Texas. Some places saw an unimaginable once-in-500,000-year deluge, which translates to a 0.0002 percent chance of this deluge occurring in any given year. Probabilities that extreme “are calculated by extrapolating the distribution curves for precipitation observed over the last century,” Metstat’s Shauna Bokn explained. Since global warming has been making extreme precipitation events more likely, however, the U.S. won’t have to wait 25,000 years to witness the next event of Harvey’s proportion. But, again, to be clear, that’s all based on historical precipitation data over the past century. Human-caused climate change is shifting the baselines. In regard to Harvey, MetStat found that “an interesting atmospheric setup was present that allowed it to stay alive for so long; bringing devastation over such a widespread area.” In particular, “the jet stream was located at very high latitudes, allowed for very light wind shear over Texas, and this aided in the lack of movement for Harvey.” As climatologist Michael Mann explained during the storm, “the kind of stalled weather pattern that is drenching Houston is precisely the sort of pattern we expect because of climate change.” Climate science predicted a weaker jet stream, and Harvey stalled because of a weakened jet stream. |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh ![]() Senior Advisor Group ![]() Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 36152 |
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNLfZGEzx8c BPEarthWatch-models indicating Jose getting close to New York sept 19/20, another storm hitting Georgia sept 25 and a third one moving into Louisiana /Florida sept. 28. That is just the models. (Lee and Maria would be the names after Katia).
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh ![]() Senior Advisor Group ![]() Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 36152 |
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BPEarthWatch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWYnvFldvl4
-Jose may reach New York as a cat.1 at night and stay there for a longer period bringing a lot of rain -2nd storm follows Irma-track over Caribean than to Georgia -3th storm starts in the Caribean-over Cuba-Florida into the Atlantic -Also mention of first snowstorm in Montana Long term models that will change. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-15/new-york-city-within-hurricane-joses-cone-uncertainty MrMBB333, over 20 inches of rain in western Mexico due to "Norma"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isRT-yFqpIg striking in densly populated area with lots of dams.
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh ![]() Senior Advisor Group ![]() Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 36152 |
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIROYvZfbbs MrMBB333; "Jose" is starting to look a lot like "Sandy" in 2012. But it may not make landfall-move into the Atlantic and maybe even then return to strike again !
http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news/local-news-nyc-nj-ct/1256-uh-oh-euro-216-hour-shows-a-potential-simultaneous-impact-on-the-east-coast-by-two-hurricanes Tuesday "Jose" COULD be less than 200 miles from New York and bring a lot of rain. (DJ; problem is that models are far from perfect). https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange We are on our way to a 4C above normal-drastic action is needed now ! In september 1961 hurricane "Debbie" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Debbie_(1961) did do a lot of damage in Ireland and the UK. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Vince In october 2005 hurricane "Vince" reached Spain. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_effects_in_Europe In a paper published in April 2013, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute predicted that by the year 2100, global warming would greatly increase the threat of hurricane-force winds to western Europe from former tropical cyclones and hybrid storms, the latter similar to Hurricane Sandy in 2012. One model predicted an increase from 2 to 13 in the number of cyclones with hurricane-force winds in the waters offshore western Europe. The study suggested that conditions favorable for tropical cyclones would expand 1,100 km (700 mi) to the east. A separate study based out of University of Castile-La Manchapredicted that hurricanes would develop in the Mediterranean Sea in Septembers by the year 2100, which would threaten countries in southern Europe.[5] Hurricanes in the Atlantic are not only a risk for North America they also effect the weather in Europe-and the Arctic (bringing warm air-increase polar melt). Severe (economic) damage due to climate change to the US effect global economies and trade. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlG6I9nlDgQ&feature=share Populationgrowth of 240.000 persons per day, unrealistic pricing-leaving lots of cost to the taxpayer for private profit is destroying our planet.
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Satori ![]() Senior Advisor Group ![]() ![]() Joined: June 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 28645 |
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interesting piece on how hurricanes affect infrastructure
Hurricane Irma: Revenge of the Everglades... https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/9/15/1698865/-Hurricane-Irma-Revenge-of-the-Everglades |
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“The point of modern propaganda isn’t only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.” Gary Kasparov
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Dutch Josh ![]() Senior Advisor Group ![]() Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 36152 |
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Satori, reminds me of building a house on solid ice during winter-one day summer will come....
http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news/local-news-nyc-nj-ct/1259-hurricane-jose-expected-in-nj-nyc-area-in-four-days-we-could-get-a-rough-ride-a-direct-hit-or-nothing models on "Jose" (and "Lee" and "Maria" ) are very uncertain. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ will give advisories on a new hurricane on its way to the Lesser Antilles. In a recent Vice article, Nafeez Ahmed broke the story of Schroders, a British investment firm with US $542 billion under management, privately advising its clients that global temperatures could reach 7.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century. Of course, as is well known, the safe limit for warming is generally considered to be 2 degrees Celsius.
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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CRS, DrPH ![]() Expert Level Adviser ![]() Joined: January 20 2014 Status: Offline Points: 17490 |
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Perhaps the biggest problem from extreme weather is not the damage from high winds, but from the storm surge, caused by rising sea levels.
Data shows that the oceans are rising, due to melting of glaciers AND expansion of ocean water mass as temperature rises. All coastal areas are at risk, and since the majority of the world's population lives close to the seas, this is going to be a huge problem. See the graphics in this link: |
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CRS, DrPH
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Dutch Josh ![]() Senior Advisor Group ![]() Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 36152 |
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hw-bayXRZ-QBPEarthWatch and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-rzzmycHLMMrMBB333 with latest updates.
Sept 19-New York Area "Jose" cat1 Sept 25-"Maria" will sweep the US East Coast. Later on "Lee" may show up as well. CRS,DrPH-the biggest risk from these chain of hurricanes is massive panic in the US. The "human reaction" already showing on Caribean islands with drinkingwater and foodproblems, no houses, next hurricanes on its way....
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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CRS, DrPH ![]() Expert Level Adviser ![]() Joined: January 20 2014 Status: Offline Points: 17490 |
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Thanks, Dutch Josh! My wife and I were married in St. John, US Virgin Islands, on Nov 20, 1997 (nearly 20 years ago!), it saddens us to see this devastation. We are reading about widespread looting and intimidation of the populace by armed thugs, very sad. A model for what any of us might face in the future, due to pandemic, EMP etc. Sadly, more storms are on the way....Maria and Lee look like they could add to the misery in the Caribbean. |
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CRS, DrPH
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Dutch Josh ![]() Senior Advisor Group ![]() Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 36152 |
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYqqkc1lD9sBPEarthWatch;
-Jose may stay at the Atlantic not doing much damage to the US, but Jose is full of surprises -Lee is moving north in the Atlantic, proberbly not doing much damage -Maria may become another Irma-cat3/4 moving over the Carribean towards US East Coast -another storm sept 30 close to the Mexican gulf coast moving into Mexico (in this model) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cnSPb1FJVqIMrMBB333 newer info, sound problem in the video. Maria could become a cat.4 but get pulled into the Atlantic by "Jose" before reaching the US coast. Jose would do another turn south to get in touch with Maria. The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season is very bizar. If this is the "new normal" many islands in the Caribean have a "very limited future". Not much tourism or agriculture=no means for many people to live there. DJ: This story-again-is not only about the US. It is about climate change effecting global economics, logistics, foodproduction etc. When these destructive storms are only the beginning of "very bad weather" we are in very big problems as humans.
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh ![]() Senior Advisor Group ![]() Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 36152 |
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http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/cmc/cmc_atl_accprec.html
showing several storms forming both in the Atlantic and in the Caribean. -sept 20 "Jose" "to close for comfort" New York/Boston -sept 24 "Maria" over Florida, "Irma-track" -sept 27 "Nate" Louisiana All are models-but not looking good ! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season gets updated daily.
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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CRS, DrPH ![]() Expert Level Adviser ![]() Joined: January 20 2014 Status: Offline Points: 17490 |
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Dutch Josh, great point about the grim future of the Caribbean islands!
They are squarely in the line-of-fire to hurricanes, and these are likely to increase in the future. Damn shame, they are all very nice islands with wonderful people and resources. |
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CRS, DrPH
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Dutch Josh ![]() Senior Advisor Group ![]() Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 36152 |
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgS1cQKbrpI BPEarthWatch confirming an earlier scenario of 3 storms effecting the US the coming 2 weeks.
CRS, DrPH-after the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Barrier_Reef another part of Earth is destroyed. People become refugees-losing everything they had including-with some bad luck-selfrespect. When I also hear about the early snowstorms in the northern US-other extreme weather events around the globe-I try to imagine the "exponential factor"; superstorms, hail-stones that kill, extreme cold in areas that should be warm or the other way round. Not looking good ! BPEarthWatch relates the "climate chaos" to solar flares-most make the link with climate change. |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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EdwinSm, ![]() Adviser Group ![]() Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 7735 |
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This is not the US yet...
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