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Can hurricanes destroy the US ?

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 18 2017 at 1:31am
http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news/local-news-nyc-nj-ct/1264-tropical-storm-watch-issued-for-new-jersey-and-new-york-city


Dahboo77https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isIyBUDRq2E Jose may move north to almost Canada east coast and than turn over the Atlantic move into Virginia/Carolina's were Maria then moves over-combining the strenght of two storms. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4hQgVXO-hY MrMBB333 "Mary" can become cat 4 or 5-move via the "Irma"track.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=STlm7YSzUkEBPEarthWatch also warning for a new storm forming near Yucatan-Mexico


The big question is how to see these hurricanes in a wider perspective. Is it part of abrupt climate change-and (far) worse-globally-on its way.http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear-power/nuclear-power-accidents/flood-risk-at-nuclear-power-plants#.Wb-M30tJa3D 

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 18 2017 at 10:22am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QplYXNCg2LE BPEarthWatch, "Jose" will bring a lot of rain, surge etc to New York and further north. Then loop and move in land (Virginia or north of it ?) next weekend. By that time "Maria" will again bring a lot of rain-stay offshore. Also mentioning of a storm forming (end of september, beginning of october) near Yucatan. 


Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 18 2017 at 5:01pm
Maria to make a Category FIVE strike on Dominica tonight, St. Croix and Puerto Rico tomorrow

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/9/18/1699637/-Maria-to-make-a-Category-FIVE-strike-on-Dominica-tonight-St-Croix-and-Puerto-Rico-tomorrow
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 18 2017 at 9:39pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UeKb0nFPTRI MrMBB333-"Maria" went from a bunch of clouds to a cat-5 in 48 hours. Military are evacuating from islands neat Puerto Rico. "Maria" may move over islands without electricity due to "Irma". (DJ; some people may find out about "Maria" when it hits them.) MrMBB333 expects "Maria" making landfall "somewere in the US" or move along the US east coast-but all models have a different story-unpredictable (DJ; and very hard to calculate).



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amQPCYR0tm8 BPEarthWatch; "Jose" almost stopped moving eventhough most models predicted it to move north. A weatherfront from the US is moving east and may push both "Jose" and "Maria" in io the Atlantic-far enough to do much damage. 


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jub-8_PwbXk Dahboo77; "Jose" and "Maria" according to a model may start interacting. In his model "Jose" is pushing "Maria" in to the Atlantic-but models change-it could work the other way. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aD54qBkQCEU latest
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 19 2017 at 8:18am
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 19 2017 at 10:34pm
http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news/world-news/1282-184-mph-winds 
and

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5c4_-TIC7_I BPEarthWatch-both "Jose" and "Maria" may stay in the Atlantic-limited damage to the US.

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS-025deg.NATLAN-LEA.WS10 In the Greenland/Iceland area a new strong storm has formed (from the remains of "Irma" DJ ? )

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 "Lee" getting restarted, moving north on the central Atlantic ?

http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/gfsext/gfsext_atl_pwater.html shows another hurricane forming october 4-5 near Yucatan moving north into the Florida/Louisiana gulf coast. Also-this season is full of extremes and surprises-no reason to trust "models" as long as there are hurricanes on the Atlantic ! (Do not trust "Lee"-may surprise you ! escapes all long term models but just like the storm near Yucatan shows up from time to time.) 


Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 20 2017 at 9:48pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HX9xKHi3RBYBPEarthwatch-both "Jose" and "Maria" may bring a lot of rain into the US 9different models from Washington DC to Boston) Also mentions "Lee"reactivating mid-Atlantic, remnants of storms on the North Atlantic bringing severe weather to the UK. (I think it was BPEarthWatch that was drawing the conclusion that lows attrack eachother-a low near Yucatan could pull "Maria" towards the US. Eventhough not as a cat-5 but still with a lot of waves, rain etc.-very bad outlook !)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AD7g-wZXg3Q MrMBB333 extreme flashfloods in Puerto Rico-island could be out of electricity for 4 to 6 months.

Both BPEarthWatch and MrMBB333 are also trying to follow earthquake news. There seems to be an increase of stronger quakes. There may be some relation with hurricanes. The amount of water that is being moved (via waves, rain, clouds) is very large-it may replace seismic pressure. 



Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 21 2017 at 9:36am

The scariest thing about 2017’s hurricanes: They keep getting really strong, really fast


http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2017/09/the-scariest-thing-about-2017s.html

(The Washington Post) – “Maria is developing the dreaded pinhole eye,” wrote National Hurricane Center forecaster Jack Beven on Monday evening, as the storm reached Category 4 intensity.

That inward contraction of a hurricane’s eye can be one telltale indicator of what hurricane gurus technically call “rapid intensification,” although a more evocative word might simply be “explosion.” Whatever you call it, it’s something we keep seeing this year. Harvey, Irma, Jose and now Maria have rapidly strengthened — and all too often, have done it just before striking land.

It’s a dangerous and scary phenomenon that scientists and forecasters are still trying to understand.

“It’s not a common event. Typically, that occurs in maybe 5 percent of our forecasts,” said Mark DeMaria, acting deputy director of the National Hurricane Center.

But DeMaria said that this season is seeing more rapid intensification events than usual and that Maria, in particular, appears to have set a key record for hurricane rapid intensification in the Atlantic.

“Looking back through the records, Maria went from a tropical depression to a Category 5 hurricane in just two and a half days,” he said. “I couldn’t find any other tropical cyclones in our historical record that went that quickly from a depression to a Category 5 hurricane.”

That’s a big problem, because rapid intensification sets the stage for worst-case scenarios. Sadly, that’s what happened to the Caribbean island of Dominica on Monday night, hit by Maria at full Category 5 strength.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 21 2017 at 11:55am
So far no updates from BPEarthwatch, MrMBB333 etc.-it seems to be very hard to predict what "Jose" and "Maria" will do. 

2017 Atlantic hurricane season so far did bring two cat 4 hurricanes "Jose" and "Harvey", and two cat 5 hurricanes "Irma" and "Maria"-they all were active this month. Very bizar !

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-21/bay-area-sues-big-oil-billions and https://robertscribbler.com/2017/09/20/san-francisco-and-oakland-sue-fossil-fuel-companies-over-rising-sea-levels/ (DJ; of course politics did give big oil all the room they wanted-for decades-to destroy the enviroment. Now they claim they did not know what would come ? A bit hypocrite in my opinion.)



DJ-The 2017 hurricane season is proberbly far from over. If "alarmists" are correct things only will get much worse very fast. Stronger "superstorms" may become the "new normal" very soon-in that scenario. If that "model" would become reality that would effect the way "the world can work". 
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 21 2017 at 5:24pm

Hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel: Why it’s time to stop calling these hurricane disasters ‘natural’


http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2017/09/hurricane-scientist-kerry-emanuel-why.html

“The point of modern propaganda isn’t only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.” Gary Kasparov
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 21 2017 at 5:49pm
Originally posted by Satori Satori wrote:

Hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel: Why it’s time to stop calling these hurricane disasters ‘natural’


http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2017/09/hurricane-scientist-kerry-emanuel-why.html


Thanks, Satori!  Indeed, our global warming is turning the oceans into massive storm machines.  We sow what we reap. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 21 2017 at 7:55pm

Hurricane MARIA JET-STREAM Will Determine East Coast Fate

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETKDFWnJt38

Just like the Hurricane path models after 3-5 days its nearly impossible to tell what changes may occur. We saw this exact situation with Hurricane Irma. About 30 hours before Irma was projected to turn north and hit the east coast of Florida we had an unexpected "break" in the Jet-Stream. This caused a separate wall of pressure to stay along the length of the east coast while the other side re-formed North by Canada. This break is the reason Irma was stuck south and eventually hit Cuba then once the pressure passed it went north but to the west coast instead. This is very important to remember not only because it may change the path of Maria but because we are still days away from the forecast. Much can change in the coming days and with such little space to go the smallest of changes in the Jet-stream can be the difference in a Land-fall or Maria staying out in the Atlantic.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 21 2017 at 9:28pm
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 21 2017 at 11:08pm
[I don't know if this fits here, but a moderator could move this to a new thread if needed]


The situation in Puerto Rico, could well give us an indication of how things might go in a general collapse following a pandemic.  Currently 3.5 million people without electricity that could take months to restore.   Hot weather without air conditioning.  Unclear relationship to the rest of the USA (due to the island's unique status).  An area heavily in debt but legally unable to seek bankruptcy protection. 

Lets see how this unfolds and if there are lessons we can learn to help us in out preps.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 22 2017 at 1:58am
No Edwin, That is fine where it is.  I wish everyone took as much care where they put stuff as you just did.  Thanks.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 22 2017 at 4:24am
Originally posted by EdwinSm, EdwinSm, wrote:

[I don't know if this fits here, but a moderator could move this to a new thread if needed]


The situation in Puerto Rico, could well give us an indication of how things might go in a general collapse following a pandemic.  Currently 3.5 million people without electricity that could take months to restore.   Hot weather without air conditioning.  Unclear relationship to the rest of the USA (due to the island's unique status).  An area heavily in debt but legally unable to seek bankruptcy protection. 

Lets see how this unfolds and if there are lessons we can learn to help us in out preps.




along those lines of how people will behave,there is this

'Time to eat, but not to fix my power': Drink dumped on electrician grabbing lunch after 12-hour shift

https://www.yahoo.com/news/apos-time-eat-not-fix-000903409.html


remember

this is AMuriKa

it's ALL ABOUT ME ME ME


I would have had that #$^%$# arrested and then filed a civil suit against her

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 22 2017 at 5:37am
EdwinSm-there is always the disaster after the disaster. Haïti got a cholera-outbreak (linked to Nepalese UN-peacekeepers) after the initial earthquake. Many islands in the Caribean find themselves in a Peurto-Rico like situation. "Independent" means in this case hoping someone will provide help. 

With the hurricane-winds and waves-all kind of animals, virusses, bacteria have been transported to areaś with dead animals on the street and high humidity and temperature. 

Proberbly lots of people are trying to find a new-safe-home elsewere-refugees are logical after several hurricanes and no income. 

Severe storms could do very much damage to even well developed countries. There is a limit in what a country can deal with. 
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 22 2017 at 10:42pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfvIdOPkTL8 BPEarthWatch with an optimistic view-for the short term for the US. Both "Jose" and "Maria" would pose limited risks-although models differ. 

Government insanity:




Since in a lot of area's there are no kitchens left, preparation of food could be a risk. No electricity means a lot of food may become uneatable. 

"Lee" has a second life; http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/025621.shtml?tswind120#contents. The speed in wich clouds can develop into a cat 5 hurricane-within 48 hours-the way systems interact-a depression could push a hurricane in the opposite direction than models expected-makes making models very hard. 


There is an increase in earthquakes-the movement of extreme large amounts of water by hurricanes may play a role;

latest long term model;
just one hurricane forming round oct 8 in the Gulf.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season gets updated daily-indirect damage is much larger. Investments will be made not in regions with high-hurricane risks or damages, people will move to safer places. 
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 23 2017 at 10:15pm
MrMBB333 with his latest https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPAidtj3-3s "Maria" tends to move towards the US East Coast bringing at least a lot of rain-from North Carolina all the way up to New York, Pennsylvania, second half of the coming week. So still a lot could change.

http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/gfsext/gfsext_atl_pwater.html Shows sept 27 "Maria" making a short landfall-hanging in the coastal area for 36hrs-and then moving into the north Atlantic. This model now expects a storm west of Florida oct. 9. (But that keeps changing from model to model-just an indication hurricane season is not over yet. At the hurricane-appendix I will try to look at tendencies for stronger storms in october due to climate change).


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4sCI-1U3-0&feature=youtu.be The Real News on Puerto Rico-the disaster after the disaster, and not only for Puert Rico. 


DJ; When we are in the "abrupt" "exponential" part of climate change we have to expect the extremes going more extreme, extreme temperatures, rainfall, wind, storm etc. The slow movers will be water expanding due to warming up-but a storm could bring sealevel rise water going to places that normaly would stay dry during floods. Heatwaves in Greenland or Antarctica ? Proberbly coming increasing ice-melt !
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 24 2017 at 1:38am
"Lee" has become a cat-1 hurricane mid-Atlantic http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/240624.shtml this could influence other developments. 

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/marias-forecast-path-edging-closer-outer-banks "Maria" could get to cat-4. "Disturbence" Invest 98-E could turn into a tropical depression bringing much rain to the Mexico-Texas borders. 


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/23/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-communication-lines-dam (DJ-situation in parts of Asia are even far worse-healthrisks and refugees will increase global.)

DJ;One of the things we should learn from this hurricane season is how fast hurricanes can develop. Models may be running behind the facts-faster computers need more data to give better results. An other point is that-with much damage the loss of life seems to be limited so far. Good information saves lives !
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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