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Can hurricanes destroy the US ?

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 10 2018 at 11:17am
https://www.wunderground.com/news/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-10-hurricane-michael-cat4-landfall-unprecedented-location:
Michael plowed ashore just after midday Wednesday near Mexico Beach, Florida, packing maximum sustained winds of 155 mph.

With an estimated minimum central pressure of 919 millibars, Michael was the third most intense hurricane landfall in the continental United States, according to NOAA's Hurricane Research Division.

(DJ-cat 5 =wind156mph+ and pressure -920mb)
Michael was by far the most intense hurricane to landfall in the Florida Panhandle, according to NOAA's 167-year best-track hurricane database.

Prior to Michael, there were 27 Category 4 or stronger hurricanes that made landfall in the continental U.S. in records dating to 1851, according to NOAA's Hurricane Research Division.
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Michael will also be the first Category 4+ continental U.S. hurricane landfall to happen in October in 64 years.

There have been only four such landfalls since the mid-19th century.

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/database/index.php?pageid=tstorm_read&trid=1296

https://www.wunderground.com/news/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-10-hurricane-michael-cat4-historic-landfall-gulf-coast-florida


http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news/u-s-national-news/3259-1-36-pm-edt-landfall-155-mph-sustained-winds

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-10/extremely-dangerous-hurricane-michael-strengthens-cat-4-southeast-braces-record:
Update (1:40 pm ET): The "worst case scenario" has become a reality. Hurricane Michael made landfall near Mexico Beach, Florida at 1:40 pm as a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 155 miles per hour (that's 2 mph shy of Category 5 status). Already, the storm is the most powerful hurricane to make landfall in the Continental US in 14 years.
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 10 2018 at 2:24pm
I wish we really knew the truth of this...   Yes that 919 looks really bad but I don't know how they figured it.   However those wind speeds are WAY off there is no evidence of winds greater than about 110-120mph. We do have a gust at the AFB hat was 130+.    But that was just a gust and I am looking at pictures of damage. Yes it was a strong hurricane but here is very little evidence that it is the "strongest ever" or what ever they want to say.   I know it is possible that we have not yet gotten reports from the hardest hit places. I maybe jumping the gun here but I pray I am right.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 10 2018 at 9:31pm
I'm watching the footage of the aftermath, and I see nothing to suggest that the wind speeds were being exaggerated. Every media outlet - from Fox to CNN - seemed to be in agreement that it was just shy of Cat 5 when it made landfall. I'm curious as to why you think it was being reported as being more powerful than it actually was. What would be the end game?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 10 2018 at 9:37pm
DeepThinker; maybe the strength of "Michael" is in the area effected ? (About 10% of the US population involved directly). Also https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFkjxwsx94M Mr.MBB333 is correct; SE Georgia had no reason to expect a cat-2 hurricane going that far inland !

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1-wzvLovAwRobert Scribler-"Michael" did increase in strength fast-the "models" did underestimate what was coming. (DJ-In my opinion when experts are surprised at what is unfolding can you blame citizens for underestimating this storm? Proberbly many would have left when they were told a cat5 was coming!)

In2ThinAir https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VkKdkfYahBw expecting "Michael" proberbly remaining a cat1-OVER LAND !!!!-for several hours and wondering what it will do when it reaches the Atlantic. (DJ-https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/212416.shtml?cone#contents has "Michael" as a storm. But maybe they will "rethink" the situation ?)

DJ-Let me be clear when a cat5 storm ever would come over the Netherlands we are knocked-out and will be down for a very long time if we would not get foreign aid. Even with the best protection you can not avoid extreme damage as a result of extreme force.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_effects will get updated-most damages are in things that do NOT happen, tourists that do NOT come, investments NOT being made etc.

https://www.wunderground.com/news
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 10 2018 at 10:02pm
The satellite image looked very impressive and that 919 is scary like I said....

However look at the pictures we have of Andrews aftermath, or even Katrina...    a Cat 4/5 hurricane doesn't damage stuff, it is a slate wiper. The damage is like an ef 2or3 tornado that is 20 miles wide. Homes are stripped to their foundation and even all your vegetation gets stripped clean.   So far what we see is homes with roofs torn off not homes that have blown away. Maybe we haven't seen the worst of the damage yet, however we had storm chasers actually out broadcasting from in and around the eye. They would be dead if the winds where 155.

Maybe it has something to do with the rapid intensification... maybe those stronger winds never made it down the surface.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 10 2018 at 10:23pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 10 2018 at 11:09pm
Deep Thinker, MrMBB333 also compared hurricanes with tornadoes-in my (DJ) opinion this is incorrect because with hurricanes most damage is done by the water/surge/rain...(But I admit I am not an expert)

BPEarthwatch also expressing surprise "Michael" remaining a hurricane-on land-that long. Unprecedented ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YjU8iXLyaq4 "There must be a lot of damage"!
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 11 2018 at 12:54am
Agreed that water does most of the damage during a hurricane. Michal produced a huge surge no doubt.

I was only taking issue with the wind speeds they said.   We should all know more in the morning.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2018 at 2:14am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2018 at 2:30am
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-11/i-have-no-words-aerial-footage-shows-trail-devastation-left-hurricane-michael,

http://www.thebigwobble.org/2018/10/monster-hurricane-michael-fourth.html,

https://www.wunderground.com/news.

DJ-"Michael" coincided with a "sharp fall" at the stock-exchanges. Most likely there is only a limited relationship between the two events although it may be hard to look into investors minds.

Looking at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_effects;
Harvey 125 billion, Maria 92 billion, Irma 65 billion US$ in damages.
this year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_effects Florence brought 45 billion in damages, Michael most likely will go beyond that (and the season is not over yet).

Most damages are impossible to put in numbers, trust in the safety of the place you live, work, invest getting damaged. Tourism gone. Trust in governments gone.
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2018 at 11:57pm
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 13 2018 at 12:54am
I read a story a while back about the thermosphere now being the coldest it has ever been recorded at (only been measuring it since the space age).   I have a sneaky feeling this is what is allowing the hurricanes to blow up like they have the last couple years.   People think it is heat that drives hurricanes. When in reality it is temperature differential that powers weather.   I have no idea if a cold thermosphere supports global warming or not.


Side note: Google and Youtube have been really pissing me off lately.   It is very obvious they have been modifying their algorithms to make sure we all get our news from "approved" sources.   I only mention it because I for the life of me couldn't find the article to back up what I said in the first paragraph.   I know I read it and not even that long ago but google has become useless at helping me find it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 13 2018 at 9:10am
With all the wierd effects of global warming, I would not be at all surprised to find that the thermophile had cooled. Despite its high temperature and vast size however, the thermophile would be unlikely to produce much effect at Earth's surface as its molecules are so far appart. It is almost vaccuum.

However if the thermophile has cooled, that is evidence that the warming of the Earth's surface is definitely NOT solar in origin. The temperature of the thermophile layer is almose entirely solar-generated. So if it is cooling whilst the rest of the earth is warming, then something here is more than compensating for reduced solar warming.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 13 2018 at 8:46pm
I realy have to study this subject, does a growing temperature difference between layers in the atmosphere create stronger hurricanes (and UV-C getting to the surface-or is that unrelated ? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermosphere 80km+, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone_layer 30km+)

Interesting question on wich I do not have an answer yet...

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/database/index.php?pageid=event_desc&edis_id=TC-20181014-65024-USA

Robert Scribler with some good info on the (very warm +5c/+8F) Arctic and damages of "Michael" (stirred up Ocean, forrests down=effecting CO2sinks)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvyCSc0HEpA, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gl4nyrDOePo

By the way, "Leslie" making landfall in Portugal, moving over Spain towards France this sunday http://www.severe-weather.eu/outlooks-day1/outlook-day-1-2-valid-13-14-10-2018/ and "Michael" on its way to Europe http://www.severe-weather.eu/tropical-weather/remnants-of-ex-hurricane-michael-intensifying-in-the-atlantic-extra-tropical-storm-on-the-way-towards-the-bay-of-biscay-tomorrow-oct-14th/
http://www.estofex.org/:A level 3 was issued for parts of Portugal surrounded by a level 2 covering also parts of Spain mainly for severe to damaging wind gusts and to a lesser extent for (strong) tornados and excessive precipitation.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Rain-Spain-Falls-Mainly-Froma-Hurricane

DJ-Europe is not ready to deal with hurricanes at all. It is very likely there will be a fast increase of hurricanes getting to Europe (also other storms getting much stronger).
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 13 2018 at 10:30pm
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-13/hurricane-cost-may-skyrocket-billions-stealth-fighter-jets-unaccounted-tyndall-afb:

According to the New York Times, Tyndall is home to 55 stealth fighters, "which cost a dizzying $339 million each." Before Michael hit, the Air Force evacuated at least 33 of the planes to Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Ohio, however they would not comment on the status of the remaining 22 fighters.
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F-22s are notoriously finicky and, as the Times puts it "not always flight-worthy." The Air Force reported earlier this year that just 49% of F-22s were mission ready at any given time - the lowest rate of any fighter in the Air Force. The total value of the unaccounted-for fighters is arouind $7.5 billion.

The eye of Hurricane Michael traveled directly over Tyndall, peeling back stormproof roofs like tin cans and flipping over an F-15 fighter jet display at the base entrance.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 14 2018 at 2:09am
I can't be specific regarding atmospheric layers, but generally speaking, currents of anything (gasses, liquids or even plasma) form as the laws of physics try to equalise divergent temperatures. The hotter the fluid, or the greater the thermal incline, the stronger and faster the currents.

That is why stronger hurricanes are a given in global warming.

I've been saying this about global warming for several decades, but the wind has barely started rising yet! Hold on to your hats (metephorically and actually) it is going to be a wild ride!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 14 2018 at 8:42pm
Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

I can't be specific regarding atmospheric layers, but generally speaking, currents of anything (gasses, liquids or even plasma) form as the laws of physics try to equalise divergent temperatures. The hotter the fluid, or the greater the thermal incline, the stronger and faster the currents.

That is why stronger hurricanes are a given in global warming.

I've been saying this about global warming for several decades, but the wind has barely started rising yet! Hold on to your hats (metephorically and actually) it is going to be a wild ride!


Indeed it will, Techno!

I saw that Portugal was assailed by Hurricane Leslie, I didn't know that your side of the pond was blessed with these things!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 15 2018 at 2:24am

We never used to have them. The first recorded on our south coast was during my childhood.

We are getting windier every year. Two years ago we put up a polytunnel. "That will stand a force nine!" we commented smugly, as we finished shoring it up, burying its edges and adding anchors. It did.

Then we had our first force 10 since arriving here. It even bent the steel hoops flat!

Isn't it amazing how hard it is to listen to your own advice?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 15 2018 at 9:58pm
Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:


We never used to have them. The first recorded on our south coast was during my childhood.

We are getting windier every year. Two years ago we put up a polytunnel. "That will stand a force nine!" we commented smugly, as we finished shoring it up, burying its edges and adding anchors. It did.

Then we had our first force 10 since arriving here. It even bent the steel hoops flat!

Isn't it amazing how hard it is to listen to your own advice?


Indeed!! I just read about your Storm Callum, I hope you and yours fared well! I used to live in the Southwest of England (Exeter), and these extreme weather events (massive winter snowfalls, storms, floods) make me sad!

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/12/europe/storm-callum-uk-ireland-intl/index.html
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 15 2018 at 10:03pm
DJ; The Arctic is extremely warm pushing cold air-via the jetstream to the US and central Siberia. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIdu33vKME4 (Robert Scribler)

"Leslie" did bring a lot of damage to Portugal, Spain, France. https://www.wunderground.com/news/news/news/2018-10-15-southwestern-france-floods-trebes and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Leslie_(2018)#Madeira

"Michael"https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/iberian-peninsula-battered-by-remnants-hurricane-leslie-hurricane-michael-september-2018/115091

DJ-As should be expected Europe is not safe for hurricanes any longer due to (rapid) climate change.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/94L-Headed-Towards-Belize-Tara-Drenching-Mexico-Luban-Floods-Yemen
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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