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Climate-change were you are.

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Climate-change were you are.
    Posted: September 13 2017 at 5:05am
We had a small tornado here november 2013 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWkX9uu6qlU. Certainly at 1.13 very spectacular !  Same tornado from the south of Arnhem https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YBrOOs_TiA

A busdriver did not want water getting in the way after a large amount of rain https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QKFeKz5tFXY so the passengers did get their feet wet. 
Rainwater is stopped at the dykes on wich the railways are made. So this kind of waterproblems is not uncommon. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SS67CWKb8vQ This is not uncommon after a large shower. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ot1KfCoQtXQ Parking getting flooded. 
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2017 at 5:15am
https://www.ruimtevoorderivier.nl/english/ To deal with to much water in the Netherlands they have made extra room for the rivers. So you can control the flooding. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_heat_island On the other hand you need water to cool the surroundings during a heatwave. In my region they have made extra room for the (Lower)Rhine but also made vissible an old stream, a brook, wich can deal with both to much water or to much heat. Also more green, trees, vertical gardens against walls-http://www.countryliving.com/gardening/garden-ideas/how-to/g1274/how-to-plant-a-vertical-garden/?

Vertical gardens on soundscreens along highways are supposed to have a cooling effect, clean the air, and reduce the noise of traffic. 

In the Netherlands political parties claim to encourage cycling. http://www.snelfietsroutesgelderland.nl/arnhemnijmegencycling In my opinion they are not doing enough yet. Other EU-countries are planning to stop alowing fossil fuel transport in several years. 

(Royal Dutch) Shell has a lot of influence in Dutch politics. (In Germany and France car-manufacterers have a lot of influence-the power of Fina, BP, Volkswagen, etc should not be underestimated.)

For many cities more bikes, less cars, saves a lot of money and pollution. https://ecf.com/what-we-do/urban-mobility/fast-cycling-routes Other cities, regions are interested in what bikes can mean for their regions https://www.velo-city2017.com/.
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Technophobe View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2017 at 5:48am
Great topic!

My question to you was how are you prepared when things get worse, which they will.  

I do not know how bad climate change will get.  The daisyworld theory seems to hold reasonably true, but does not protect any one species; we could be one of the unlucky ones.  I can't see Earth becoming like Venus, but things could change radically.  If anyone wants to know how the use of all the stored carbon could make things go.  Then look at the geological period that existed before it was stored away the first time - namely the early carboniferous.

Additionally, as the climate stabilizes at the new temperatures, there should be massive changes to wind and water currents; greening of deserts and desertification of lush areas, hurricanes becoming more frequent, stronger and covering a wider band - not just tropical areas.  

So the questions go:  "How well prepared are you for those senarios?"
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2017 at 6:30am
Tech, I think that "abrupt climate change" could be a realistic scenario. When I look at the public unrest after hurricanes I am not optimistic on how safety would work out when we-in NW Europe-would have to deal with a situation in wich there is no police, government etc. for days or weeks. 

Basicly I do not know what to prepare for. There are "risk-maps" in wich north of were I live wildfires are the main risk, but here flooding is a main concern. In a radius of 30 kilometers about 1 milion people live, in a 100 mile radius over 30 million. When they start to panic fellow-humans are a major risk. 

I understand you live in an area with minor risks for wildfires, flooding or large movement of public-in-panic. 

I try to stay informed, try to keep a good condition, know my ways. During the "cold-war"this region was supposed to be on the list of the Soviet Union for a nuclear attack. The bridges in this area are the main connection between the Northsea-ports and Germany. 

I guess that in a nuclear attack I will be history at once. Proberbly would not want to survive such a horror. 

Having a lot of food/drinks in a house for wich the main risk is flooding is not the best of ideas. 

So I only can hope that "things get wose" that slowly that I can see them coming. Proberbly in other countries public order will collapse earlier than in the Netherlands. 

On the other side of this "story" there might be "things getting that worse" you do not want to survive them. Preparing for some scenario's may have use, other scenario's proberbly prolong suffering. 
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2017 at 9:20am
Thanks, Dutch Josh!  

I am a winter sports enthusiast in the northern US state of Illinois, and used to live & play in Minnesota (borders on Canada).  One of my favorite winter-time activities for the past 50 (!) years has been "ice fishing," whereby I trudge onto a frozen lake, drill holes and catch (or try to catch) any of a wide variety of species of fish. 

Since the 1990s, I've noticed that our northern winters are getting shorter...lakes that used to freeze solid enough to drive onto are now partially open in most winters, and this has impacted the famous ice fishing culture of Minnesota: 


Over the last several years, ice fishing contests, which are a big deal in Minnesota, have been repeatedly cancelled due to insufficient ice thickness on the relevant lake. Some of these contests have been permanently cancelled because the annual cancelations were becoming more frequent. Just now, the Maple Lake Ice Fishing Derby has been cancelled. That’s bad.

But even more disturbing is this

Ice conditions for the Eel Pout Festival have created enough concern to prompt vehicle restrictions, according to the Cass County Sheriff’s Office.

Sheriff Tom Burch says vehicle traffic on Walker Bay during the event will be prohibited, but with the following exceptions: snowmobiles and Class 1 & 2 ATVs.

All vehicles must be removed from the ice by noon on Friday. Motorized traffic is no allowed until Sunday at 10 a.m.

This is a big deal because the Eel Pout Festival is different from the previously canceled ice fishing events. All those previously cancelled events, including Maple Lake, are in Central Minnesota, not far from the Twin Cities. The Eel Pout festival is way the heck up north, in a region where even with global warming affected climate, the ice still normally forms hard and thick.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2017 at 1:39pm
I moved to this area over 30 years ago
some years ago they changed the Growing Zone we are in because the temperatures have consistently been warmer
plants that used to freeze and die during the winter no longer do so
and when hiking in the nearby National Forest ticks and mosquitoes are often quite active
IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARYConfused

I have a wood burning stove that decades ago got a fair amount of use in the winter
I haven't used it now in years
it just doesn't get cold enough to warrant firing it up
“The point of modern propaganda isn’t only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.” Gary Kasparov
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2017 at 2:04pm
Ten years ago we had eight feet of snow on our hill every year and our underground water supply pipes froze.  The snow has not settled for the past six years and our pipes have remained flowing.  But the amount of rainfall has become incredible.

Our well used to run dry for a couple of weeks each year and our yard was dry year round except for a bit of mud for a week or two while the snow melted.  Now the well has not run dry for four years and each year the yard has gotten wetter.  This year my yard is a pond and a stream.   We have had to lay concrete slabs as stepping stones to get into and out of our barn!

I would rather have floods than drought, but there are floods and FLOODS!  This is going on and on; it is quite ridiculous!  We will have to dig new and more voluminous drains to cope with climate change.  I'm too old for this level of work.Angry
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2017 at 4:30pm
We used to have more fruit than we could can or freeze. The last three years it's been so warm in February that our trees have bloomed and then in March we've had a late freeze. No fruit at all this year. The little fruit that did set this year the critters got!

I have no data to support this but I've lived in the great plains most of my life and it seems there are more tornadoes and much larger and stronger tornadoes today!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2017 at 6:03pm
Stuttgart Ar. used to be called the Duck capital of the world. It was nothing to get your limit in one day! The last few years there are very few ducks. We,re now driving to northern Missouri, up in the Chillicothe area to hunt. It's not cold enough to drive them south!

Chuck,
I've spent many a day ice fishing in Minnesota. From setting on a bucket in the open to watching the Packers in a heated house. I have a friend that lives in St Cloud and that's a big part of their lives. If your truck or your house goes through the ice DNR charges you $1000 a day until you get it out! The last time i was up there 5 or ten years ago it was -28 degrees below at 2:00 PM!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2017 at 10:14pm
In the 19th century they had to make rivers in the east of the Netherlands being able to deal with ice-blockage. Parts of the river did defrost pushing ice to still frozen parts wich could do damage to dykes-cause flooding. Up to 60-70 years ago rivers could get that frozen cars could drive on it. 

We do not get ice in the rivers any longer. (So no ice-fishing either-must have been here as well in those days). 

Due to importing plants, other products, from "far away" we also get all kind of (semi)tropical plants, insects etc in this region wich can grow here due to warming. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Introduced_species


Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2017 at 10:48pm
Originally posted by arirish arirish wrote:

Stuttgart Ar. used to be called the Duck capital of the world. It was nothing to get your limit in one day! The last few years there are very few ducks. We,re now driving to northern Missouri, up in the Chillicothe area to hunt. It's not cold enough to drive them south!

Chuck,
I've spent many a day ice fishing in Minnesota. From setting on a bucket in the open to watching the Packers in a heated house. I have a friend that lives in St Cloud and that's a big part of their lives. If your truck or your house goes through the ice DNR charges you $1000 a day until you get it out! The last time i was up there 5 or ten years ago it was -28 degrees below at 2:00 PM!

Thanks, nice to hear from a fellow ice fisherman!  I lived in Tulsa for a few years & enjoyed watching the eyes of the Okies get big when I told them we could drive on the lakes in our pickup trucks and go fishing!!  

These days, not so much.  We do get an occasional cold winter from the erratic polar vortex (which whips around like a crazy snake, due to Arctic heating), but I'd have to drive pretty far north to feel confident to drive on the ice again.  

And I do miss those -30ºF mornings in St. Cloud, MN!!  When you inhale, it feels as if you were shot in the chest!!   Sadly, our lifestyles will change, and events like Hurricanes Harvey and Irma will probably be the new norm (torrential rainfall, increased extreme weather events etc.).  We need to consider this for our preps.  

Be safe, man! 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 15 2017 at 2:21am
I've noticed that the dry periods in the summer are longer and more intense, and conversely, the winters have been much wetter. We're in the process of building a barn and outside yarding area so we can keep our cows in next winter to stop them churning up the paddocks so badly. Their current cowshed isn't big enough for permanent housing for 4 or 5 months. 

Our summers have been long and very dry recently. We've had to start irrigating our paddocks to guarantee grass. I do worry about grass fires, so we've taken steps to fit huge irrigation sprinklers in the paddocks that are on the windy side of our house, so hopefully we can drench them in the event of a fire and stop it before it gets to us. 
If it is to be, it is up to me.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 16 2017 at 2:40am
KiwiMum, does the change of weather effect the health of the cows ? Does it effect the profitability of having cows ? (More costs for housing and food-decrease in milkproduction ?)

Here in the Netherlands agriculture production is still increasing while the number of farmers is decreasing. http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Agricultural_census_in_the_Netherlands
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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