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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Now tracking the Aussie Flu.

Clusters

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Kilt5 View Drop Down
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    Posted: October 12 2017 at 1:53am

H7N9 cluster analysis finds multiple but limited human-to-human spread

A closer analysis of 21 clusters of H7N9 avian flu infections in the first three waves in China's ongoing outbreak suggests that human-to-human transmission is involved in a small fraction of cases.

Researchers from China and their collaborators at the US Centers for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC) used a simple framework to gauge the likelihood of human-to-human transmission and published their findings Sep 19 in the Journal of Infectious Diseases.

The 21 clusters with 22 infected contact cases were identified by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention from March 2013 to June 2015. The team looked at detailed epidemiologic information, including timing of contact exposures to people and poultry during the incubation period. Using a framework based on exposure timing to help distinguish person-to-person transmission from a common infectious source such as poultry, they graded the likelihood of exposure as probable, possible, or unlikely.

Probable person-to-person transmission occurred in 12 clusters, was possible in 4, and unlikely in 6. Two of the probable clusters involved nosocomial transmission. The investigators found no evidence of sustained transmission among people.

The researchers said the framework they employed could be used as a standardized tool to help quickly assess future H7N9 clusters as they occur.
Sep 19 J Infect Dis abstract

 


Flu Scan for Sep 25, 2017

CIDRAP-25 Sep. 2017
A closer analysis of 21 clusters of H7N9 avian flu infections in the first three waves in China's ongoing outbreak suggests that human-to-human ...


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Technophobe View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2017 at 2:19am
Thank you for continuing to watch this, Kilt.  The bomb may not have hit the ground yet but I can definitely hear a whistling.
Absence of proof is not proof of absence.
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Kilt5 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 14 2017 at 4:16pm
the clusters will get longer and include other villagers as well as family members

when they get to 100 long it will end but the pandemic will start within days - so lock the gates and bolt the doors

the clusters are short and blind now but they will get longer

a flu pandemic is imminent 


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