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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Current Phase of Alert Issued by the WHO

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    Posted: January 01 2006 at 8:30am

If you would like to monitor the pandemic warning system that was created by the World Health Organization, you can simply visit this thread at any time and then just click on the link below.   

Current Alert Level

 

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote joss Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 01 2006 at 9:10am
I made that link my home page in my browser. This way, each time I start my browser, I'll be able to see it (like a constant reminder).
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote libbyalex Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 01 2006 at 1:34pm
Oops. Just started another thread with the same purpose as this one. Guess I was redundant! -- Libby
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote chicken little Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 08 2006 at 9:29pm
Do you really think that WHO will be up to speed on this, and won't be influenced any by politics?
It is as bad as you think and they are out to get you.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote chicken little Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 09 2006 at 8:11am

Sort of like the tremblers of 'pre-shocks' before the major quake hits, eh?

I think yer right on the mark.

It is as bad as you think and they are out to get you.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 09 2006 at 8:20am
They won't raise ti until they can't deny it anymore.  For months I have suspected that the WHO was orchestrating a coverup. They go in and teach countries how to minimize the death rate from H5N1 by faulty testing. They set up outside lab test requirements.  (SEA had to send their samples to Hong Kong to be proven H5N1 positive.)  What an insane joke!

 People were getting sick from some sort of horrible viral infection with a high, high temperature. They were bleeding from their mouths and developed bacterial pneumonia before they died. 

What did Hong Kong confirm? 

You got it, "No active virus detected."  The patient died of pneumonia or Encyphelitis or Dengue or Yellow Fever because serum tests showed the presence of antibodies for one of those diseases.  Never mind the fact that the patient who died did, indeed, have one of those diseases years earlier, and, of course would have antibodies.

In Africa (Niger I believe)  in November they started an aggressive innoculation campaign against Yellow Fever because people were dying by the hundreds.  They inoculated a whole province and then an adjoining one, spending millions of dollars for shots.

How did they know it was Yellow Fever?  The WHO had tested ONE person (Who had had Yellow Fever two years before.) and found YF antibodies in that person's syrum.  Thus they deduced that all the people were dying of Yellow Fever. They tested one person!  ONE!

Where were the tests on all the people who had died?  They didn't run any.  At any rate, after the inoculation campaign they tested for YF antibodies and got additional positive antibody results.  They do not specify if they tested the people they gave the shots to or if they tested dead or recovered patients.

There have been no further reports out of that province.  You are left to wonder if the people are still dying of something.  If they are still dying, the WHO will probably claim that it is measles and start a campaign to inoculate the entire province again.

NOBODY has been tested for H5N1!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Deej Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 09 2006 at 8:25am
why the cover up, to what purpose
dee
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 09 2006 at 8:29am
It just occured to me.  Maybe the WHO conducted inoculation campaign was not really for Yellow Fever?  Could that have been a cover story for a trial innoculation with a Bird Flu vaccine combined with YF vaccine to be on the up and up?  WOW! 

Well, maybe.  Only the WHO knows for certain.  I sure thought the particulars on the Yellow Fever inoculation campaign were suspect.  But now, that would make sense.  Does any body really know what is going on?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 09 2006 at 8:31am
Originally posted by Deej Deej wrote:

why the cover up, to what purpose


If there is an actual coverup, it has multiple purpose.
1. Economic damage avoidance (Tourism, Sales of exports.....)
2. It would avoid panic.
3. It would help line the coffers of corrupt companies that could profit from delayed continued sales of preventative items.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Deej Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 09 2006 at 8:48am
i suppose its childish to think that any gov't or business has its people's best interest at heart.  i think they are not saying anything because they do not know anything, or maybe hoping they can contain this outbreak--- but i like your theory on the innoculation, that would explain a lot. 
dee
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 09 2006 at 5:54pm

I've discussed this subject with  friends who are intelligent, highly successful  and who's opinions I value very much.  They are all confident in our government creating a vaccine that will prevent a  pandemic proportion Bird Flu outbreak.   And surprisingly (to me),  they question how long Tamiflu will  be effective in combating the Bird Flu.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Corn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 09 2006 at 9:16pm

The pharnacy in canada where i got my last tamiflu before the ban to suppliers by Roche emaild me and said they got another shipment and was giving previous buyers first dibs,, anyway I declined.

BF will probably be resistant by the time it makes it here and if what I have isn't enough I also have 3 pounds of star anise I plan to mix the seeds with a vodka tonic and make my own steric acid. 10 - 20 drops every 3 hours at first for twodays then blablabla.

I can't afford Tamiflu for everybody and now they are saying take a double dose to be effective. oh well........

The vaccine your friends are talking about will go to in this order ...the politicans, military, police, dr and nurses, first respondes, FILTY RICH FRIENDS OF THE ABOVE, then elderly kids and at risk groups supposedly,

Unless your friends are in the top tier of the above they'd better provide for themselves, There are no fairy god mothers in bird flu land



Edited by Corn
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AuntBones Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 10 2006 at 6:37am
 How Corn do you know star anise will help? I do know it is used in making Tamiflu. I also have anise in  seed and oil.
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Has to be Star Anise. the seed from the pod. It is the main ingredent in Tamiflu Roche controls about 90% of the market of Star.

As a tonic its in a crude form, not as concertrated as Tamiflu. Thought that's the best I could do for others in need as a last ditch effort. If you search wicca and oriental herbs it's used for alot of things besides spice.

**************************************

Average strength is 1 part herb to 5 parts alcohol.

Place 4oz (120g) dried material or powder in a closed vessel. Pour on one pint of alcohol/water mix and set aside in a cool dark place. Shake well morning and evening. Length of maceration is usually 14 days for leaves etc but fibrous roots, barks and resins may take as long as 3 weeks. Separate the tincture by decanting, straining and filtering. Store, preferably in well- stoppered amber amber-coloured bottle.

**************************************888

A rare herb grown in China used to flavor duck dishes and treat infants for colic is at the center of a worldwide search for a cure for avian flu.

Star anise, the unusual fruit of a small oriental tree, is sold in supermarkets in the UK to consumers seeking its pungent, licorice-like flavor

But the herb has a vital function as the source of shikimic acid from which the drug Tamiflu is made, the only defense the world currently has against the threatened flu pandemic.

**********************************************8

Expectorant, anti-spasmodic, carminative, anti-microbial, aromatic, galactogogue.

Improves memory, get rid of oily skin, calm coughs, increases milk production for nursing mothers and serve as a natural antacid.

Commercially, it is very popular as a fragrance and a flavoring. It is very effective as a carminative (to relieve gas pains).

Used as a cough remedy, bronchitis, asthma, as a digestive aid, may be used for relieving menopausal discomforts, treating some form of prostate cancer in men. It may have potential in treating hepatitis and cirrhosis, although tests are being conducted on this.

Indications : The volatile oil in Aniseed provides the basis for its internal use to ease griping, intestinal colic and flatulence. It also has an expectorant and anti-spasmodic action and may be used in bronchitis, in tracheitis where there is persistent irritable coughing, and in whooping cough. Externally, the oil may be used in an ointment base for the treatment of scabies. The oil by itself will help in the control of lice. Aniseed has been demonstrated to increase mucociliary transport and so supporting its use as an expectorant. It has mild estrogenic effects, thought to be due to the presence of dianethole and photoanethole, which explains the use of this plant in folk medicine to increase milk secretion, facilitate birth and increase libido.

Anise is a stimulant and carminative; used in cases of flatulence, flatulent colic of infants, and to remove nausea. Sometimes added to other medicines to improve their flavor, correct griping and other disagreeable effects..


Description: A very popular herb in the ancient Chinese and Indian Ayurvedic medical systems for many centuries. There are many different varieties of aniseed. The most common variety is the ash colored kind from Spain. Anise belongs in the same botanical family as parsley and carrots.


Dosage: Make a tea by adding 7 tsp of aniseeds to 1 quart of boiling water and then simmering the contents down to 1-1/2 pints. Strain and add 4 tsp each of honey and glycerin (as a preservative). Take 2 tsp of this syrup every few hours to relieve hacking coughs.

Take 2 tbsp three times daily to strengthen the memory.

For flatulent colic mix Aniseed with equal amounts of Fennel and Caraway. For bronchitis it combines well with Coltsfoot , Horehound and Lobelia

Preparations & Dosage:

Infusion: the seeds should be gently crushed just before use to release the volatile oils. Pour one cup of boiling water over l-2 teaspoonfuls of the seeds and let it stand covered for 5 to l0 minutes. Take one cup three times daily. To treat flatulence, the tea should be drunk slowly before meals.

Oil: one drop of the oil may be taken internally by mixing it into half a teaspoonful of honey.

Just figured I'd get some. 3 lbs for 60$. I also have the formula for tamiflu. Figured I could play with it. Know any ameture chemist?

The synthesis commences from naturally available (-)-shikimic acid. The 3,4-pentylidene acetal mesylate was prepared in three steps: esterification with ethanol and thionyl chloride; ketalization with para-toluenesulfonic acid and 3-pentanone; and mesylation with triethylamine and methanesulfonyl chloride. Reductive opening of the ketal under modified Hunter conditions (JOC 1993, 58, 6756) in dichloromethane yielded an inseparable mixture of isomeric mesylates. The corresponding epoxide was formed under basic conditions with potassium bicarbonate. Using the inexpensive Lewis acid magnesium bromide diethyl etherate (commonly prepared fresh by the addition of magnesium turnings to 1,2-dibromoethane in benzene:diethyl ether), the epoxide was opened with allyl amine to yield the corresponding 1,2-amino alcohol. The water-immiscible solvents methyl tert-butyl ether and acetonitrile were used to simplify the workup procedure, which involved stirring with 1 M aqueous ammonium sulfate. Reduction on palladium, promoted by ethanolamine, followed by acidic workup yielded the deprotected 1,2-aminoalcohol. The aminoalcohol was converted directly to the corresponding allyl-diamine in an interesting cascade sequence which commenced with the unselective imination of benzaldehyde with azeotropic water removal in methyl tert-butyl ether. Mesylation, followed by removal of the solid byproduct triethylamine hydrochloride, resulted in an intermediate which was poised to undergo aziridination upon transimination with another equivalent of allylamine. With the librated methanesulfonic acid, the aziridine opened cleanly to yield a diamine which immediately underwent a second transimination. Acidic hydrolysis then removed the imine. Selective acylation with acetic anhydride (under buffered conditions, the 5-amino group is protonated owing to a considerable difference in pKa, 4.2 vs 7.9, preventing acetylation) yielded the desired N-acetylated product in crystalline form upon extractive workup. Finally, deallylation as above yielded the free base of oseltamivir which was converted to the desired oseltamivir phosphate by treatment with phosphoric acid. The final product was obtained in high purity (99.7%) and an overall yield of 17-22% from (-)-shikimic acid. Notably, the synthesis avoided the use of potentially explosive azide reagents; nonetheless, the synthesis is still considered fairly complex, as it involves a fair number of steps, the generation of three stereocenters, and complicated process chemistry.

[selenium and vinilla are a few other things one can try to use. I've collected a bunch of recipies that claim to help.



Edited by Corn
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2006 at 7:44pm

One thing that really worriesme is I see this virus being dangerous even if it dosent mutate. 

The bird flu will get here by the spring and even  in nonmutated form it will cause finacial problems to chicken farmers and the sector  that is directly related.  

Has anybody looked at the normal course of this  virus without speculating about it changing It will migrate here and spread  to then wild duck population .   We can catch it just going to the neigbourhood park.  The virus  SPORESwill be in birdsh*t   yOUR CAT CATCHES  BIRDS    bIRDsh*t DRIES ON HOT DAYS AND BECOMES AIRBOURNE   

OK MY CONCERN IN A NUTSHELL IS WHO IS STUDYING  AS IT I S NOW

WE KNOW THAT THE VIRUS AS IS IS NOT CONTAINED AND WE HAVE NOT QUARINTINED IT,

 CULLING IS INEFFECTIVE , 

 

 THE BIGGEST SCAM HERE IS THAT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT THE NORMAL COURSE OF EVENTS   

 PLEASE LETS FIRST LOOK WHAT IS HAPPENING  I AM NOT SAYING IT WONT MUTATE  IM SAYING IS WHAT WE ARE FACING IS CHALLENGING ENOUGH AND LETS FOCUS ON IT

 



Edited by RBARNES55
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HELLO!!! WELOCOME TO THE REALITY CLUB!!!

Meewee

God Bless us all!
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_star_anise

Japanese star anise

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

Jump to: navigation, search

Japanese star anise (Illicium anisatum, also Illicium japonicum and Illicium religiosum), is a tree similar to Chinese star anise. It is highly toxic, therefore it is not edible; instead, it has been burned as incense in Japan, where it is known as sikimi. Cases of illness, including "serious neurological effects, such as seizures", reported after using star anise tea may be a result of using this species.

I. anisatum is native to Japan. It is similar to I. verum, but its fruit is smaller and with weaker odor, which is said to be more similar to cardamom than to anise. While it is poisonous and therefore unsuitable for using internally, in Chinese medicine it is used for treatment of some skin problems.

Japanese star anise contains anisatin, shikimin and sikimitoxin, which cause severe inflammation of the kidneys, urinary tract and digestive organs. Other compounds present in toxic species of Illicium are safrole and eugenol, which are not present in I. verum and are used to identify its adulteration.

Anisatin and its derivates are suspected of acting as strong GABA antagonists.

It is impossible to recognize Chinese and Japanese star anise in its dried or processed form by its appearance only, due to morphological similarities between the species.

There are cases of product recalls when products containing star anise were found to be contaminated by Japanese anise. Cases of consumers admitted to hospital with neurological symptoms after ingesting excessive doses of star anise or smaller doses of products adulterated with Japanese anise were described as well.

External links

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For Immediate Release

Austin, TX (September 12, 2003)

On September 10, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued a Consumer Advisory regarding the agency’s concerns about some cases of poisoning related to the substitution of the toxic Japanese star anise for the safe Chinese star anise.

The following day many news outlets reported the story. Unfortunately, many consumers, reporters, and even natural foods and grocery industry members have become confused over FDA’s actions and the ensuing publicity, incorrectly suspecting problems with all commercially manufactured herbal teas containing star anise.

Chinese star anise (scientific name Illicium verum) is a safe and flavorful component of some popular herbal tea blends, and it is also a flavor component of spice mixes used in food products. It has the same star-shape as Japanese star anise (Illicium anisatum), but the Japanese species contains some toxic compounds. The herbal tea industry has long used the safe Chinese star anise, not the Japanese material. Chinese star anise is recognized as safe for food use by the FDA, as acknowledged in FDA’s advisory.

Because the two plants’ star-shaped seedpods look so much alike, the herbal tea industry many years ago developed laboratory techniques to be able to distinguish the safe Chinese star anise from the unsafe Japanese star anise. In-house quality control laboratories at herb tea companies in the U.S. employ microscopic analytical techniques as well as chemical tests to ensure that the herbal material they receive is the proper, safe herb before it is processed into herbal teas released to the commercial market. Several authoritative reference books and European pharmacopeias have published analytical methods to help make the proper distinctions.

“Herbal teas sold by reputable companies in the United States are quite safe,” said Mark Blumenthal, founder and Executive Director of the American Botanical Council (ABC). “People in the herb industry have known about the problem with the two kinds of star anise for many years and have developed quality assurance programs to ensure that commercial herb teas use the safe Chinese star anise.”

The cases of poisoning with Japanese star anise that the FDA cited were not related to herbal teas produced by reputable tea companies, Blumenthal added. Most of the poisoning cases probably involved cases where consumers purchased the toxic Japanese star anise in bulk and made their own teas. Japanese star anise has been sold for many years for its use as an ingredient in potpourris because of its shape and fragrance. It is not intended for internal use.

ABC also pointed out that the public should not confuse star anise with anise, sometimes called aniseseed (Pimpinella anisum), a member of the carrot family. Anise is a safe, commonly used food flavoring that is also generally recognized as safe by the FDA. Because of its licorice-like taste, anise oil is the main ingredient used in making “licorice” candies in the U.S.

About the American Botanical Council

The American Botanical Council is the nation's leading nonprofit organization addressing research and educational issues regarding herbs and medicinal plants. The 14-year-old organization occupies a 2.5 acre campus in Austin, Texas where it publishes HerbalGram, a peer-reviewed journal on herbal medicine, and published in 2003 a book and continuing education course for healthcare professionals, The ABC Clinical Guide to Herbs. In 1998 ABC published The Complete German Commission E Monographs, a 715-page reference book that was ranked second of all medical books published that year. Information contact: ABC at P.O. Box 144345, Austin, TX 78714-4345

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Corn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 15 2006 at 4:22am
Yes you must buy the chinese veriety. the batches you order will specify chinese or japaniese. the sellers, herb stores etc. know this and are selling the chinese star anise. you want the chinese (which will be on the lable) and not the Japanise.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Deej Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 18 2006 at 7:43am
does anyone have any current #'s.  the who site is not up to date. thanks... 
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numbers on what? hat's scary if the who site is out of date but not unexpected, they are about a month behind everything with this virus.

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Current number of : 82

Marjo
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nice meeting you too.
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thanks for the info marjo, my prior post was for someone who i guess got deleted
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote keegs2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 25 2006 at 1:11pm
This seems like it will be interesting We will need to keep up to date when this thing starts spreading human to human
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 01 2006 at 2:52pm
Thanks Corn and SophiaZoe for some great alternatives to Tamiflu. Corn,I'd appreciate reading any additional remedies that you mentioned you've collected.
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Tip of the Day

Thursday February 2, 2006.

Stock up on N-95 masks while you still can. You can buy them at stores
that sell medical supplies like, wheel chairs or walkers. They are not
expensive, yet.

Next go to the pharmacy and order any medications you need to take
on a regular basis. Order as much as you can. While you are there, buy
any other supplies eg, bandages, aspirin, etcetera.

When you wash your hands, remove any rings from your finger first.

The only stupid question in this Forum is the one that is unasked.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ella Fitzgerald Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 01 2006 at 11:03pm

Masks were the first thing I ordered on-line and got them this past weekend.

I fear that H2H is near. The BF activity seemed to take an upswing the past few days. Does anyone agree?

I also am paying close attention to Iraq because WHO is sending a team and last I read they were trying to confirm where the 37 y.o. uncle aquired BF. He cared for the 14 y.o. before she died and he died shortly after.

 

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Feb 2/06

Assume the worst. The WHO is subject to too
much political and financial pressure. Money can be
made when the news is good or bad, and those higher
up who are in the know - privy to confidential info,
benefit from advance warning.

I just bought a portable generator this morning, not much to choose
from. I've got another 100, N-95's this am., and will continue
accumulating more as the biological Tsunami evolves.

I might be crazy, but I'm in good company. Besides I can always
eventually eat that extra sack of rice or sell the generator at a garage
sale.

If the WHO is so straight, why did Dr. Niman anticipate the present
problems in Kurdistan, when the WHO was discounting initial reports?

We need to wake-up and smell the coffee.

The chickens have come home to roost.

Keep reading this and other groups.

Keep learning - Keep living.

More from Dr. Niman -


http://www.recombinomics.com/whats_new.html






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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2006 at 1:32pm

Influenza Resistant to Two Antiviral Drugs Almost all
samples of virus not affected by amantadine and rimantadine, CDC says


THURSDAY, Feb. 2 (HealthDay News) -- Virtually all samples of seasonal
influenza virus tested by the U.S. government this year were resistant to
adamantanes, the class of drugs considered to be the leading treatment
for flu infection, a new report shows.

This means that the drugs in this class, amantadine and rimantadine, are
ineffectual and shouldn't be used, health experts said.

"We were absolutely shocked at the findings," said Rick A. Bright, an
immunologist at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
"This renders this class of drugs useless for influenza for now and for the
foreseeable future. We don't expect this to go away any time soon,
especially as other countries use it in over-the-counter formulations."

Others said the news was not so shocking, given the propensity of
bacteria to develop resistance to antibiotics. "We see emerging resistance
to antibiotics, so it's not surprising to see viral resistance," said Dr. Len
Horovitz, a pulmonary specialist at Lenox Hill Hospital in New York City.

The findings, from the Journal of the American Medical Association, were
released Thursday because of their public health significance. They will
also appear in the Feb. 22 print issue of the journal.

Amantadine and rimantadine have been used for years against
community outbreaks of influenza A. They are also included in the
national stockpile to guard against a possible influenza pandemic.

Flu outbreaks continue to be a major public health concern. According to
the study, 10 percent to 15 percent of the U.S. population come down
with the flu every year, and about 31,000 people die of it. Vaccination is
considered the best strategy to prevent infection.

On Jan. 14, the CDC issued a Health Alert recommending that amantadine
and rimantadine not be used to treat or prevent influenza A infections in
the United States for the remainder of this flu season. The alert was
issued because 91 percent of the 120 influenza A virus samples that were
tested were resistant to these two drugs.

"We put the alert out the day after we had the 91 percent figure," Bright
said.

The current study expands and updates that testing. A total of 209
influenza isolates (including the original 120) from 26 states across the
United States were collected and analyzed. Overall resistance was 92
percent.

Ten isolates from Mexico were all resistant. An earlier study in The Lancet
showed a 96 percent resistance in China, Bright added.

The speed at which the resistance developed was the most surprising to
health officials. "It's very rare we see such a rapid increase," Bright said.
"We did not expect to see over 90 percent."

Researchers suspect it has to do with widespread, over-the-counter and
unregulated use of the drugs in other countries. "We believe that it
occurred due to pressure from people overusing this class of drugs,"
Bright said.

But the resistance is likely to stay for the foreseeable future and possibly
longer. "Until every place in the world stops using this medication, it may
never go away. It may be useless forever," Bright stated.

Both amantadine and rimantadine should stay in the national stockpile,
Rick said, as they might still be of use in an emergency situation.

Tamiflu (oseltamivir) and Relenza (zanamivir), antiviral drugs which
belong to the neuraminidase inhibitor class of antivirals, still have some
use.

"So far, they're still OK but we're concerned that people will be using them
more and might begin using them inappropriately and, with increased
and inappropriate use, we do expect to see an increase in resistance,"
Bright said.

Tamiflu and Relenza are also included in the stockpile but, according to a
study released earlier this month, are probably not enough on their own
to counter an outbreak or pandemic.

More energy and resources need to be devoted to developing new
antiviral drugs, surveillance needs to continue, and people need to get
vaccinated, Bright said.

But a report released Thursday from the CDC found that influenza
vaccination rates for U.S. children aged 6-23 months were low in the
2003-04 flu season.

"When you rely on any antiviral drug, you're always a single mutation
away from resistance," Bright said. "Vaccines are the only truly effective
way to stop an influenza outbreak."

More information

For more on fighting flu, head to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention.

SOURCES: Rick A. Bright, Ph.D., immunologist, U.S. Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention, Atlanta; Len Horovitz, M.D., pulmonary specialist,
Lenox Hill Hospital, New York City; Feb. 22, 2006, Journal of the
American Medical Association

id=530752">http://www.healthday.com/view.cfm?id=530752
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bojangles Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2006 at 10:03pm

I have been reading the posts for a few days now and am just as skeptical as the next person but yet prepared.   Most of these posts just go to show where are hears are when it comes to our higher ups.

I had to study communicable disease and did my thesis on the plaque. So it is important to me that the people I talk too will at least lend an ear to what is fact and what is not.

Does anyone remember going back in our Anthrax days the two guys that were arrested I think in nevada for having the serum for the anthrax and the Plaque? They said they had found a cure and antidote for both because it was found out that Saddam was supposed to have let go some plaque infested rats that would make there way to our ships or be lanted somehow on our ships. I think that was quite inventive of the )&)& but also a reality of not only that happening but other illnesses also that could be done in such a manner

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 04 2006 at 10:37am

For info at a glance, how about a topic heading:

"Current phase issued by WHO is phase three"

and the administrator of this site would be responsible for monitoring and updating?

Please. : )

MK
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 04 2006 at 4:32pm

WHO - Avian influenza – situation in Iraq - Update
Epidemic and Pandemic Alert and Response

2 February 2006

"Specimens from Iraq’s first reported case of human infection with the
H5N1 avian influenza virus have now been tested at a WHO collaborating
laboratory in the United Kingdom. The case was a 15-year-old girl from
the northern part of the country who died of severe respiratory disease on
17 January. Test results have now confirmed her infection.

Rumours of possible human cases in other parts of the country have been
systematically followed up. To date, no such rumours have been
substantiated."

WHO-led teams are currently conducting or completing field assessments
in nine countries in the area: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Egypt, Georgia, Iran,
Lebanon, Moldova, Syria, and Ukraine.

For regular updates from WHO...


http://www.who.int/csr/don/2006_02_02/en/index.html
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ella Fitzgerald Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 04 2006 at 4:43pm

Okay, I got my history lesson for the day. Why don't we have daily updates from WHO on what the status is for these field assignments?

 

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Corn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 09 2006 at 4:08am

Is it me or has the WHO be more forth coming lately?

I read where they monitor sites like these to chase down rumors and get heads up on news as it developes thru the grapevine.

I'm sure they will have to raise the level in the next couple of weeks if all hell breaks loose in Africa.

So what if they do declare Pandemic Level 4 then what?

What are we going to do then?

Some new flubies might get the message and start preping but I feel until we hear of cases of Human to Human in the US most of us won't activate any of our pandemic plans and the rest won't prep.

I too am poised to go into hybernation mode but don't know when I actually will. Level 5?



Edited by Corn
Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote trisharp Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 09 2006 at 5:58am
Corn,
I agree with you.  I noticed this with the WHO issue yesterday about the Nigeria post on their web-site.  They are very much more open and IMO showing real concern.  The language appears to have changed expressing the gravity of the situation.  This may be leading us to "level 4".
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 09 2006 at 6:43am
Originally posted by Corn Corn wrote:

I too am poised to go into hybernation mode but don't know when I actually will. Level 5?

 

IMHO, that is the crux of the problem.  I believe that the highest danger to anybody who has been preparing is to those living in areas of the initial outbreaks.  With a 3 week incubation rate, people will be infective all around us and our children before we are even aware of it.  When they actually start getting sick, I believe most local governments are not going to "jump" to close schools and workplaces.  I believe it will be another 3 weeks or so, when the sick and dead start to mount before shut-in recommendations are announced.    Even if it is only a week for testing to announce that it is AF, then it's been 4 weeks that us and our kids have been exposed, plus our extended chains, if we have them.   At that point, even if we bug-in, we have another 2-3 weeks of waiting to see if we get sick or not.   We all can't just stop going to work or take the kids out of school just because some-type of illness breaks out.  We'd be taking them out of school every other month.

I'm hoping to be a secondary hit area.  To be behind that curve even a week, 10 days, will give us and the local gov enough of a heads up to be hair trigger about shutting down at the first sign of local illnesses.

If we are a primary area, chances are we won't realize it until we've already been exposed to some risk. 

Anybody else got any ideas on the "at what point do I bug in (or out)?" question?   It would play hell with my office to open and close, but, we could live with the damage to the business if the pandemic "doesn't come off".  On the other hand, pulling my daughter in and out of school will cause a loss of credit and completely muck up college plans if the pandemic "does'nt" come off!  Hate to say it - and I don't know about the other folks here - but, if on one hand you wait too long to see if it's the real deal, then it's deadly, but if I move too soon and it's not the real deal, then I've totally mucked up her education "just to be safe".  

Seems like it's a no brainer of the safe-than-sorry type, but I'm not so sure.

So - in an odd way, there is still alot of unknowns for me and vagueness about the decision points in the future (and I've been aware of the AF for at least 3 years, began preparing slowly last July and preaching to my friends since August.)

I'm TRULY interested in some other viewpoints/ideas on this topic!

 

- The Rock is Gonna Fall on Us - Harry Chapin

- I Can't be Done Preparing Yet, My Credit Card's not Maxed - Me

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 09 2006 at 6:47am

Originally posted by Rick Rick wrote:



Stock up on N-95 masks while you still can. You can buy them at stores
that sell medical supplies like, wheel chairs or walkers. They are not
expensive, yet.

 

Home Depot and Lowe's sells N-95 masks, believe it or not.  To protect from paint/spackle/etc sanding dust.   They also sell Nitrile Gloves.  You will pay a little more there, compared to online, but, when it hits the fan, these are places that you might be able to drive to and buy from at the first sign of trouble.  Not that there won't be others doing the same - but I suspect that most people won't be thinking of them initially for these products.

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 09 2006 at 8:18am

"Home Depot and Lowe's sells N-95 masks, believe it or
not. To protect from paint/spackle/etc sanding dust."


-------

Be carefull, I'm no expert, but the mask should also state on the box that
they are designed for medical use. The N95 masks in Home Depot may
protect you against paint and dust but, not a virus. 3M also makes "dust
" masks, but they don't use those in the hospital. The packaging on your
mask should say something similar to the following...

Here is what mine says:

"3M Health Care Particulate Respirator and Surgical Mask
NIOSH Approved. At least 95% filtration efficency against solid and liquid
aersols that do not contain oil.

Intended Use: This product meets CDC guidlines for Mycobacterium
tuberculosis exposure control. As a respirator, it is intended to reduce
wearer exposure to certain airborne particles in a size range of 0.1 to
10.- microns......as a surgicl mask, it is designed to be fluid resistant to
splash and spatter of blood and other infectious materials...."

Some N95 surgical mask experiences...

Seto and colleagues from five Hong Kong hospitals and the University of
Hong Kong, surveyed over 250 hospital staff exposed to 11 SARS patients
between 15 March and 24 March.

Most of the 13 staff who became infected did
wash their hands, and a handful also wore gloves or a
paper mask, but none had used a surgical or N95 mask. Analysis of the
data showed that the use of surgical or N95 masks was the only measure
to give statistically significant protection.

Paper masks offered little protection, says Seto. "Such masks,
being easily wet with saliva, are never recommended as a precaution
against droplets."

However, not one of the 69 staff who had used all four recommended
protection measures - wearing a mask, gloves, gowns and washing their
hands - contracted the virus.


Seto believes the risk of contracting SARS in public places is "very low"
and so does not wear a mask himself. "However, I have it ready if I am in
a crowded place," he says. "I see someone consistently coughing, then I
put it on. If I see he is febrile, I strongly advise him to go home and see a
doctor. Then I wash my hands and take a good shower on coming home."


http://
www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn3692
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Deej Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 09 2006 at 8:24am

not sure myself when to go into isolation.  i know everyone is pushing for who to increase level to 4, but what of it really.  more media attention for sure, but what does it mean to the everyday bf junkie ? be even more vilgilant, is that possible ? i am not sure what i am going to do , start wearing a mask at level 4, no, can't see that happening, 5 ? i don't know, when to pull my kid from school ? like Aodhan, i would like some input from you all to see what your plans are.

dee
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote trisharp Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 09 2006 at 8:53am
Rick,
Can you give us some sources of supply for these masks?
Is there somewhere one can walk in and make the purchase as opposed to ordering them directly. 
Thanks.
trisharp
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote gypsybeach1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 09 2006 at 8:47pm
On the question of when to bug in, you might try
watching your local obit page in the newspaper. If
you see a significant jump, whether or not the media
is reporting bf, it might be time to stay in for a while.

Tammy
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pola33193 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 09 2006 at 9:02pm
trisharp , I am buying my masks at a big company called GRAINGER they have the N95 from 3M ,You should check if you live close to one of these stores WWW.grainger.com
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote trisharp Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 10 2006 at 3:57am
Rick,
Thank you.
trisharp
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