| PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL |
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| Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Current Phase of Alert Issued by the WHO |
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 Posted: February 21 2006 at 12:22pm |
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You will hear of clusters here and there, I believe Canada may be the first to announce it. They have a really good warning system, or maybe our great Who will tell us. As for safe Isolation I'd go with a week. So far they are saying it takes 2-5 days for symptoms to show.IMO Anyone else have a different opinion?? |
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Posted: February 21 2006 at 12:47pm |
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Thank you all.
 Great information here.
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Posted: February 21 2006 at 1:21pm |
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Andy, You may have to depend on yourself and a few close friends/neighbors. Many people will deny the risk until it is on Main Street. It comes down to personal opinion. If after reading the news and the posts on this forum, you think that preparing (Prepping) your own 6 month stash of food and supplies if a good idea, then do so. If this virus goes Human to Human (H2H) it will go through a given country faster than what we are seeing now in the bird population. The infrastructure of your community/town/city will fall apart quickly. While those who chose denial are freakin out and waiting for some type of Government Assistance, you'll be comfortable and reasonably safe. Take a tour of this forum. There is a wealth of good information. |
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umesh
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Posted: February 22 2006 at 4:27am |
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A question about the current phase of threat situation on the WHO site.The date is Nov 2005. When was it last updated anyway?
Edited by umesh |
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umesh
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Posted: February 22 2006 at 4:56am |
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Where is the button that triggers a sustained H2H transmission located? Which country with poor healthcare infrastructure?
Think 'UN' should think of imposing sanctions on the country which does not have a strict suveillance/containment programme?After all the damage to the global economy can be tremendous. It has been done to Afghanistan (for terrorism) & Iraq (for flouting 'oil-for -food programme') |
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Johnray
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Posted: February 22 2006 at 7:34pm |
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umesh,no one knows where the button will be that causes the Bird Flu to go h2h. It could just as easily be in this country as any third world country. Johnray
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Concerned Physician
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keegs2
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Posted: February 23 2006 at 4:53am |
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I think it will turn H2H in a country that has poor health care. In Africa people are starving and were eating dead infected birds. I can see that making a mutation esp. if they do not cook the bird right.
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rickstooker
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Posted: February 24 2006 at 3:05am |
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The virus can mutate anywhere -- it doesn't care about the victim's species, let alone state of their country's healthcare. The H5N1 virus can recombine with ordinary influenza to become highly contagious inside any cell that is infected by both viruses -- that can be in any person, or any pigs (because pigs can be infected by both avian and human viruses). It's obviously more likely to happen inside a pig in a place such as China where people, pigs and chickens live in close proximity. However, a country with a poor healthcare infrastructure is less likely to catch it than a country with a good one. However, that's certainly nothing to bet the farm on. I bet many ER doctors in the US, Canada, Europe or anywhere else would misdiagnosis bird flu. And it's hard to blame them during ordinary flu season. And since it does take so long for test results. So some unknown number of peole will have to die in dramatic fashion before we realize the pandemic has happened -- and the virus will spread.
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Posted: February 24 2006 at 3:22am |
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WHO has a new web page now..I am looking through it to try and find the current level... |
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umesh
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Posted: February 24 2006 at 4:15am |
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Hi muskrat,
To go to the current level from that page, go to Avian Influenza Latest information under HIGHLIGHTS,Influenza pandemic threat:current situation in the center,then current WHO phase. |
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Falcon
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Posted: February 24 2006 at 7:05am |
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found it, but current situation you have scroll down a bit on the left side of the screen. http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/inde x.html |
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Posted: February 24 2006 at 8:22am |
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The forum for Information Sites is gone. Luckily I was able to copy these links down before it disappeared. http://www.cafepress.com/exaltedshrimp |
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Posted: February 24 2006 at 7:00pm |
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Recent WHO update for India: Avian influenza – situation in India – update 23 February 2006 The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare in India has informed WHO that no human cases of H5N1 infection have been detected to date. Tests conducted on samples taken from persons under investigation and their close contacts have yielded no positive results as of today. Testing has been undertaken at the National Institute of Virology in Pune and the National Institute of Communicable Diseases in Delhi. It was not clear if samples from a 27-year-old poultry worker from Gujarat State, said to have died of respiratory disease on 17 February, were among those tested. In India, as in all countries experiencing their first outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza, WHO strongly recommends that patient samples be sent to a WHO collaborating laboratory for diagnostic confirmation. Certainty about the status of human cases in a newly affected country is important for accurate risk assessment. In addition, analyses conducted by WHO-approved laboratories can yield information about the possible evolution of the virus and clues about how the virus may have arrived in the country. Genetic and antigenic studies of circulating viruses also help ensure that work on the development of a pandemic vaccine stays on track.
Doesn't it sound like WHO is almost begging India to send in data so they can take a look at it? |
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umesh
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Posted: February 25 2006 at 3:17am |
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Ahmedabad, Feb.25
Bird flu has been detected in surat district of Gujarat, officials said. The avian flu has been detected in some chickens in a farm in utchal county Gujarat Secretary for Breeding & Protection D.K.Rao said. The virus was detected in samples taken from Timol farm in Utchal, close to Navapur county in affected Nandurbar district of Maharashtra. |
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keegs2
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Posted: February 26 2006 at 9:26am |
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A case of bird flu has been detected in a wild bird in Switzerland. Just a FYI
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Sunset
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Posted: February 28 2006 at 11:18am |
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NORTHERN GERMANY...........CAT WAS FOUND TO HAVE BIRD FLU.
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Sunset
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Posted: February 28 2006 at 11:23am |
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SORRY, THE CAT NEWS WAS FOUND ON MSNBC NEWS.
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keegs2
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Posted: March 02 2006 at 4:49am |
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Today I WAS LOOKING UP THE INFO. On the cat the got infected with bird flu. It has been taken off the msn web site and the ERU nEWS WEB SITE. wONDER WHY??? mABE WE WEREN'T SUPPOSED TO KNOW ABOUT IT. hOW MANY MORE ANIMALS OR PEOPLE ARE INFECTED THAT WE DON'T KNOW ABOUT? sCARRY !!!!
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mini-mouse
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Posted: March 03 2006 at 4:19am |
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Keegs2 - Yikes!!! That is so alarming to me - it's as if there is something that might catch the interest of the everyday - very busy - person they yank it away. It seems to me the average person is absolutly and delibertaly being left in the dark. There is probably some sort of plan to notify the public at the last minute - and we all know how much time and effort and money it takes to be prepared for this possibly long term event. It's deeply saddens me to think of all the parents who are going to be unable to feed their children simply because information was not put out to them in a timely manner. SHAME.
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Posted: March 03 2006 at 7:07am |
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Ya know Mini Mouse, {I'm not a conspiracy advocate,} but I'm starting to feel the same way.
I recently called the local TV stations/newspaper, having years of experience with infectious diseases/virus in the nursing field I felt I would have some credibility. So I called and attempted to inform them of the mutations/virulence factor/high mortality rate. What happened?............nothing. Six weeks later the newspaper started a series of front page stories on the Spanish flu and now updates AF. I've noticed CNN is increasing the number of stories they're doing. Part of the problem may be human nature, if they hear it too much before it gets really serious, they may close their ears to it.....perhaps the media is aware of that. Also, if it isn't sensational news, the ratings may drop.............God forbid! Be kind.....continue to tell friends. When they say "no thank you" just get 20 more lbs. of rice and forget it. They'll be back! Mary Kay RN |
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virusil
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Posted: March 03 2006 at 7:37am |
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depopulation this is what some elite is doing since ancients timelearn about it please.
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ignorance.
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fritz
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Posted: March 03 2006 at 8:04am |
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Yesterday, while at the Vet with my dog, I told him about the cat in Germany who died of BF and he said that it was very strange that he didn't get any info on it b/c he is always immediately alerted to any spread or new virus that pops up anywhere in the world and he was going to check on it. Dunno what's going on but maybe it wasn't a valid report and so it disappeared with no explanation. Or maybe not. Who knows.
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"I am only one; but still I am one, I cannot do everything, but still I can do something. I will not refuse to do the something I can do." -- Hellen Keller
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Posted: March 03 2006 at 8:16am |
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It's more likely they are trying to keep people from killing and abandoning their pets..causing panic regarding cats, I think.
I do believe that the report was valid.
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leonardo2006
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Posted: March 03 2006 at 11:48am |
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leonardo2006
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Posted: March 03 2006 at 11:53am |
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There is a way to test and contain that is a little quicker. Its called MDD or molecular differential diagnostics. A company in Austin makes a machine that allows you to test for Bird Flu (H5N1) and subtype and have the results within 2 hours. If these machines are available in an area, the samples and results will allow for a quicker determination of what is being dealt with. The machines can also test for other pathogens and determine what other disease (s) could be cause(combined cause) and eliminate false BF diagnosis.
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leonardo2006
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Posted: March 03 2006 at 12:01pm |
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Several months ago a lot of big cats (tigers) died in Thailand from eating raw dead birds infected with the virus - I understand now the zoos are cooking the dead birds first. The German cat is just the first to be brought to light in Europe. Anyway the cats can get it from walkiing under underpasses/trees where infected birds are defacating then licking their paws. Its that simple. |
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Posted: March 03 2006 at 12:06pm |
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The vet and the non-report.... The vet is getting alerts from other vets worldwide about new disease or symptoms. The cat in Germany didn't go to a vet. It was found dead at what amounted to a bio-hazard clean-up zone. I think it's apples and oranges here. One network not cross communitcating with another network. This does surprise me though because in most countries Vet services have been recruited as a first line of defense.
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fritz
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Posted: March 03 2006 at 2:50pm |
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Thanx SZ, That does make sense; and no sense at all at the same time! In the age of such great capacity for communication it is astounding at the consistant lack of it!!! I've gotta headache.
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"I am only one; but still I am one, I cannot do everything, but still I can do something. I will not refuse to do the something I can do." -- Hellen Keller
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Posted: March 03 2006 at 3:39pm |
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Gonna talk to my Vet tomorrow when I pick up my masks. |
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Posted: March 04 2006 at 2:32am |
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BIRD FLU PASSED BETWEEN HUMANS 11 Year old girl, mother and aunty cluster in Asia. Definitely H2H case. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/4215659.stm Sorry couldn't upload article. |
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Posted: March 04 2006 at 4:27am |
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Bird flu 'passed between humans' Scientists have said a woman who died of bird flu probably contracted the disease from her daughter.
The researchers from the Thai Ministry of Public Health warn it is likely there will be more cases where the virus is passed from human to human. Professor John Oxford, a leading UK expert, said the virus had broken down the "final door" which prevented it being spread between people. The study is published in the New England Journal of Medicine.
In 2004, avian flu infected at least 44 people in eight south Asian countries, killing 32.
Until the late 1990s, it had not been thought that the virus strain - H5N1 - could spread to humans. Once it did, scientists began to fear it could then be spread between people. In a "worst-case scenario", they suggested the virus could combine with a human flu virus if people were simultaneously infected with both. If the viruses then exchanged genes, a new, highly infective virus could be created and be passed from person to person. It is not thought that this happened in the Thai case, but experts say the fact that the evidence strongly suggests human-to-human transmission of the basic virus is worrying. Fever The case began with an 11-year-old girl who lived with her aunt and went to the doctors with a fever, cough and sore throat in September last year. Chickens in the household had all died from avian flu in the preceding weeks. The girl slept and played in the area under the elevated house where the chickens were also present. The girl's mother lived in Bangkok, but went to visit her daughter when she heard she was sick, and cared for her in hospital for two days before the child died. Three days later, she too began to experience fever and severe shortness of breath. About a week later, she also died. The child's aunt, who also nursed her, showed symptoms of the virus, and was hospitalised. However, she survived her illness. The research team interviewed surviving members of the family and carried out laboratory tests on the aunt and the body of the mother to test for the presence of the virus. The child's body had been cremated so could not be tested. 'Shiver down the spine' Writing in NEJM, the team, led by Dr Kumnuan Ungchusak, said: "We believe that the most likely explanation for the family clustering of these three cases of avian influenza is that the virus was transmitted directly from the infected patient to her mother and to her aunt. "Person-to-person spread of avian influenza A (H5N1) strains has been the focus of intense concern. "If H5N1 remains endemic for months to years in the eight countries that contain more than 30% of the world's population, it is likely that such clusters will appear again." However, they add, "it is reassuring that no further transmission of the virus has been detected" after the Thai case. The researchers said human-to-human transmission of avian flu had probably occurred before, but that this case was unique because secondary infection - of the mother - had resulted in her death. Professor John Oxford, a virologist at Queen Mary's School of Medicine in London, said: "This is a very important step towards the conclusion that we all wanted to avoid - the spread of this virus from human to human. "It sends a cold shiver down the spine. He added: "In this case, it didn't spread, but I think we have to be careful not to be over-optimistic."
Note this artical is dated jan 2005 |
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keegs2
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Posted: March 04 2006 at 7:05am |
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If that happened over a year ago, why are we just finding out about it now? Ithink that is wrong not to tell us sooner!
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joseph
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Posted: March 05 2006 at 9:53am |
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Have been following H5N1 for many month with many sorces have not responded to any postings as I have been reading them, for to be beet your foe you must understand him first.
And so I say with all the information out there at this time, that we are at the optimal point where of going to level 4. Rummors have started, facts are coming in, who is preparing for pandimic containment, special meetings called all over usa, King count called for a special meeting this last week in regards for preping for the bird flu. All say it's coming we are not prepared. I started prepairing 4 month ago. Have decided to do some last minute shoping today, headed to REI today to get a could extra filter for water. ect ect. For all you sceptics of disbeliefe, would want to be you in say 2 months. |
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keegs2
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Posted: March 05 2006 at 11:40am |
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Hey Joseph, What kind of filter for water are you getting? I am not sure what to get. I work at a hospital and the only thing that we know is that they will treat the bird flu as a disaster and that means I will have to leave my family and most likely live at the hospital because their prob. won't be eniugh staff to take care of all the sick people. But thats my job so I will do it. I got on a web site yesterday and found that you could but tamiflu but it will cost ya alot of cash! 750.00 big ones for 30 pills and then you still might get it! My motto is better be safe than sorry but I really can't fork out that much money at this point because I have been off work with a broken leg!!!
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Johnray
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Posted: March 05 2006 at 4:23pm |
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Keegs2,I have posted this before,but the kind of filter that I have and that I would recommend is a "Big Berky". Just type this name in on the internet and read about it yourself.If that does not convince you,there are plenty of filters out there that work. Johnray
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mamabear
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Posted: March 05 2006 at 9:36pm |
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Joseph, I read that you were heading to REI. Live in Seattle, REI is huge up here, INCLUDING their prices. I would say on 3/4 of the stuff I was shopping for, I found the EXACT product that was DOUBLE the sticker price at REI vs. Walmart. I found terrific threads on prices of supplies and what to buy in the Prepping Threads. |
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joseph
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Posted: March 05 2006 at 10:03pm |
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Too keegs2,
To answer your question of where to get the water filter you can go online to REI and order any one they offer and have it shipped to you via ups. You can also go go mountain house online and get freeze dride food for light travel food if you need to move away from your location and still servive if things get hot. that is my back up plan to be able be safe to still to come back to my hiden food supply I will at some point put in my safe room under ground. It's all about having plans to live longer until a vacine can be made and distributed cause the president said we will be on our own. P.S. dont forget your gun. |
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joseph
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Posted: March 05 2006 at 10:09pm |
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This is true REI is through the roof on price but on some items that are hard to find a person must do what they have to do, I needed a back up filter for my water filtration untin. I am a bargan shopper and know all about wall mart, but in the same word I make good money and do my best to help out poeple in my country make a good wage and will pay more if I know my neibor will be abble to make a good wage like me and have health care. Quality of product is not found at wall mart. But wall mart does have some realy good
sausage gravy that is to die for. |
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joseph
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Posted: March 05 2006 at 10:21pm |
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I am not sure what is going on in the goverment with preperation as they say they are getting ready to do with there meetings and protocol to deal with H5N1 but my sister who is hazmad and water filtration worker for the goverment knows nothing of the bird flu and thinks I am over reacting.
We all know what we have read and searched for and regreated what we have found and read with thoughts of great dread and hope that we can sleep at peace in our bed with the items we have purcassed in our head. I just hope that someone does come back and say they found me dead.
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keegs2
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Posted: March 06 2006 at 4:08am |
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Joseph, There will be a problem in most towns if there is a outbreak of bird flu and they close our states boarders. Most towns only have a 7 day supply of chlorine to protect our water after that we will be on our own. I don't own a gun yet and I don't have a room underground. Thats cool though and a good idea. |
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Thomas Angel
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Posted: March 06 2006 at 10:11am |
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And we're glad you're here. |
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I LIKE SCARY RIDES
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keegs2
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Posted: March 06 2006 at 11:17am |
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Thomas Angel Don't you think that millions of people dying will have a negative effect on the financial system? So many people not going to work will definately have a negative impact!
I am glad your here too |
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Posted: March 06 2006 at 11:26am |
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Posted: March 06 2006 at 2:20pm |
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We have learned that our water purifying system only keeps three (3) days supplies on hand, which means that we will have even less time to get good water stored. Bonney Lake, WA |
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keegs2
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Posted: March 06 2006 at 2:28pm |
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Kelly, I guess I would start stocking up on bottled water. That is what I am doing. When an out break happens I am going to fill my sinks and Bathtub up with water to use for cleaning and such just in case we run out of water. |
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umesh wrote:
