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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Now tracking the Aussie Flu.

Ebola is back - Outbreak

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    Posted: May 15 2017 at 8:19am
After a long time a not worrying about disease and getting into way too much politics the killer virus is back and we may be on the verge of more outbreaks in Africa.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 15 2017 at 7:59pm
^Thanks, Med, it was bound to happen sooner or later!  Fun time is over!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 16 2017 at 8:22am
Without sounding like I'm putting any kind of positive spin on an Ebola outbreak, at least it happened in the Congo. These guys know more about Ebola than anyone, having dealt with numerous outbreaks over the course of decades. They're under no illusion as to the cause, whereas the West African outbreak was fueled by superstition, dangerous burial practices, higher population densities and misinformation. I doubt we'll see the uncontrolled spread we saw there.

We should fully expect this. It's inevitable that Ebola and it's extended family of Filoviruses will keep reappearing, especially given the region's appetite for bushmeat, and our continuing push into previously uninhabited forests.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 17 2017 at 2:36am
It is true that it was inevitable and it is amazing it has been so long since there have been real problems. This is one to keep an eye on because this is how it started before. Although they are just reporting a few, there are probably for more out there.

Here is a current broadcast from Africa.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 18 2017 at 2:07pm
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/world/africa/ebola-outbreak-congo-virus.html?_r=0

The number of suspected cases of Ebola has risen to 18 from nine in less than a week in an isolated part of Democratic Republic of Congo, where three have died from the disease since April 22, the World Health Organization said on Thursday.

The W.H.O. was criticized for responding too slowly to an outbreak in West Africa in 2014 that left more than 11,000 people dead, and Dr. Peter Salama, the executive director of the organization’s health emergencies program, said at a briefing that it was essential to “never, ever underestimate Ebola” and to “make sure we have a no-regrets approach to this outbreak.”

The risk from the outbreak is “high at the national level,” the W.H.O. said, because the disease was so severe and was spreading in a remote area in northeastern Congo with “suboptimal surveillance” and limited access to health care.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 18 2017 at 2:15pm
Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

^Thanks, Med, it was bound to happen sooner or later!  Fun time is over!


Your right. Fun time is over. What is most disturbing about this is we may not be getting the real numbers yet and the outbreak may be far worse than they are reporting.

I don't like zeroing in on these things - like intuition when there is about to be real trouble. - but this one feels bad. One can assume that there is always a form of Ebola circulating and perhaps people have developed some immunity. New outbreaks would suggest it has mutated.

Over the next week we will know in terms of the fatality rate which is now at 3 out of 18. Of course, you can't base anything on so few cases.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 18 2017 at 2:19pm
Independent News on YouTube. Current known infections 19. This also tracks the outbreak from Patient Zero.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 19 2017 at 7:17am
No one is paying attention to this outbreak and it grows worse by the day. People have become so wrapped up in politics that they forget our greatest threat to national security and also survival would be an Ebola Pandemic.

"Those who cannot remember the past, are condemned to repeat it"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_SantayanaThe number of suspected cases of Ebola has risen to 29 from nine in less than a week in an isolated part of Democratic Republic of Congo, where three people have died from the disease since April 22, the World Health Organization said on Thursday.

The W.H.O. was criticized for responding too slowly to an outbreak in West Africa in 2014 that left more than 11,000 people dead, and Dr. Peter Salama, the executive director of the organization’s health emergencies program, said at a briefing that it was essential to “never, ever underestimate Ebola” and to “make sure we have a no-regrets approach to this outbreak.”

The risk from the outbreak is “high at the national level,” the W.H.O. said, because the disease was so severe and was spreading in a remote area in northeastern Congo with “suboptimal surveillance” and limited access to health care.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 21 2017 at 6:25am




History of Ebola in Africa as well as current outbreak in Likati.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 21 2017 at 6:31am
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2017/05/who-9-more-ebola-cases-drc-29-total

The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) grew by nine more cases, according to the World Health Organization (WHO) African region's situation report posted today.

There are now 29 total cases, with 2 cases confirmed, 2 probable, and 25 suspected. With the three deaths from the deadly virus previously reported, the case-fatality rate is now 10%.

The nine new cases were identified in Ngayi and Azande, both located in the Likati health district. In contrast to previously published maps, Azande is now placed in northern DRC, away from the border with South Sudan.

No health workers have been infected so far, according to the report, and most patients have presented with fever, vomiting, and bloody diarrhea. The WHO said scientists are now following 416 contacts, up from yesterday's 400.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 21 2017 at 12:59pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-21/ebola-spreading-infections-800-last-week-officials-race-track-down-400-possible-cont

As we learned in 2014, all it takes is one infected individual to make it through an airport checkpoint.

With international travel via airports, trains and cars available throughout the region, a single infected individual on an airplane could infect scores of others, who in turn could infect scores more.

The following Ebola model from Yaneer Bar-Yam, who has successfully simulated and predicted such events as the rise of the Arab Spring, shows how an Ebola contagion may look.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7GXAxnfiq8">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7GXAxnfiq8

The above model is based on Ebola’s current infection rates and doesn’t take into account its possible evolution as it spreads from human-to-human.

According to scientists, the 2014 strain began hyper-evolving, to the point that had it not been contained and continued to spread through human contact, it could have gone airborne, making it as easy to catch as a common cold.

In response to this unprecedented threat, US government officials began preparing for mass casualties, reportedly going so far as to develop plans for Community Care Centers where infected individuals, or those suspected of infections, would be detained indefinitely.

DJ; Climatechange, lack of government, refugeecrises, will make the problem much worse. Belgium has a large Congo minority with lots of travel....

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 22 2017 at 12:23pm
Originally posted by Dutch Josh Dutch Josh wrote:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-21/ebola-spreading-infections-800-last-week-officials-race-track-down-400-possible-cont

As we learned in 2014, all it takes is one infected individual to make it through an airport checkpoint.

With international travel via airports, trains and cars available throughout the region, a single infected individual on an airplane could infect scores of others, who in turn could infect scores more.

The following Ebola model from Yaneer Bar-Yam, who has successfully simulated and predicted such events as the rise of the Arab Spring, shows how an Ebola contagion may look.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7GXAxnfiq8">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7GXAxnfiq8

The above model is based on Ebola’s current infection rates and doesn’t take into account its possible evolution as it spreads from human-to-human.

According to scientists, the 2014 strain began hyper-evolving, to the point that had it not been contained and continued to spread through human contact, it could have gone airborne, making it as easy to catch as a common cold.

In response to this unprecedented threat, US government officials began preparing for mass casualties, reportedly going so far as to develop plans for Community Care Centers where infected individuals, or those suspected of infections, would be detained indefinitely.

DJ; Climatechange, lack of government, refugeecrises, will make the problem much worse. Belgium has a large Congo minority with lots of travel....



We cannot be too careful in the U.S. about screening people from countries which may have Ebola. It would appear that Ebola has mutated again. While it may not be as virulent with only 10% fatality - a 5% loss of our population would shut down our infrastructure.

Did we make Ebola?  We have developed biological strains of most viruses and bacteria in some cases "just to see if it could be done".

With the mobility of people by jet now things could be global in 24 hours. HIV started in America with a patient Zero as did Swine Flu in Mexico with a young boy. 

This site was born when a lot of people were getting Avian Flu and we are at a point where many bugs have mutated and are resistant to everything we have.

In a hot wet place - the breeding ground for all that is viral - but like HIV - it can spread.

We need to remain vigilant and aware. We have a lot more to fear from Ebola than a nuclear bomb and our vulnerability to biological terrorism is the worst of any of it.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 22 2017 at 12:25pm
It continues to spread...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 25 2017 at 11:00am
Going to stay on this one because the outbreak still is spreading.

http://amonpointtv.com/2017/05/25/congos-ebola-outbreak-threatens-car/

The World Health Organisation (WHO) on Thursday warned that an Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo could spread to the neighbouring Central African Republic (CAR).
 
Militia violence has forced thousands of people to flee across the border to CAR.
 
Two cases of the virus have been confirmed by the WHO in Congo’s remote northeastern Bas-Uele province since early May. Four people have died so far among the 43 suspected and confirmed cases. Experts said that the affected area’s isolation, it is about 1,400 km from the capital Kinshasa, has helped contain the spread of the highly contagious hemorrhagic fever.
 
The WHO said, yet recent attacks by Christian militias in CAR’s border town of Bangassou have driven about 2,750 people into Bas-Uele, raising the risk that the Ebola outbreak could spread across the border. “There is a big concern about Ebola spreading to Central African Republic after this displacement,” said Michel Yao, the WHO’s representative in the CAR.
 
“We are worried as the refugees are close to the epicenter of the outbreak,” he told the Thomson Reuters Foundation, adding they could become infected and carry the virus back home. Yao said, while this latest Ebola outbreak is Congo’s eighth, the most of any country, CAR lacks experience in dealing with such an epidemic, and its health system is weak after four years of conflict.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 26 2017 at 1:37am
Sorry, Med - still can't say this is giving me any cause for serious concern. Even when it landed in the slums of West Africa, it couldn't transform itself into a larger outbreak. It just moves too slowly (unlike influenza) to be a global threat.
Interesting article from the much respected Helen Branswell -



Ebola outbreak may be smaller than feared, WHO indicates

By Helen Branswell @HelenBranswell

May 25, 2017

There are signs that the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo may not be as big as was once feared, World Health Organization officials indicated Thursday.

Fourteen suspected cases have tested negative for the deadly virus, Alison Clement, a WHO spokeswoman currently in Likati, the epicenter of the response, told STAT in an interview.

So far there have been two confirmed cases, four probable cases, and four deaths. Another 40 people are currently listed as suspected cases, said Clement. Roughly 300 people who are contacts of known or suspected cases are being monitored to see if they develop symptoms.

Clement cautioned, though, that in an outbreak the net is cast wide to try to find anyone who might have Ebola, so that they can be isolated and tested. People who are sick with Ebola but are missed by surveillance can infect family members; if they die and are buried in traditional burial rites, those attending funerals can also be infected.

A mobile laboratory is now operating in Likati, Clement said. That will speed up the process of determining the actual scale of the outbreak. A response team of about 50 people from the DRC ministry of health, WHO, UNICEF, and Doctors Without Borders are in Likati, she said.

Among those who tested negative are five people who were being cared for in the Ebola treatment unit that was set up in Likati, Clement said. Four have been released; one is still sick with something else and needs medical care.

Given what appears to be the limited scope of the outbreak, the use of an experimental Ebola vaccine may not be required.

“For the time, there doesn’t seem that there was really a necessity to do so. I hope it remains the case,” Dr. Marie-Paule Kieny, a WHO assistant director-general, told STAT.

That said, Kieny confirmed planning continues to allow for deployment of vaccine, if the government of DRC asks for it. But it may not, she acknowledged.

The Ebola virus only has 7 genes and is smaller than a blood cell, but during an infection the deadly disease can shut down multiple organs. Here's how it works.

“The logistics, all the preparations are moving forward, but you can imagine that without indication that this is spreading, that the government may decide that maybe it’s not reasonable to start a big vaccination operation. And actually, you don’t know who you would vaccinate,” Kieny said from Geneva.

The logistics of getting the vaccine to this remote part of DRC would be substantial. Clement said getting from one village to another in this part of the country is incredibly difficult; there are no roads and response workers are being ferried along jungle paths on motorbikes.

“This is in the middle of nowhere,” said Kieny. ‘’It’s not a routine operation, so in order to go for it, they must be really sure that this is worth it.”

Some observers have questioned why the experimental Ebola vaccine, which was tested in Guinea in 2015, hasn’t been immediately sent to the DRC. There have been reports the government was hesitant about using an unlicensed product.

Kieny said this outbreak has galvanized awareness among the organizations that respond to Ebola outbreaks that the groundwork for use of the vaccine must be laid in advance in at-risk countries — places where Ebola outbreaks have happened in the past.

Regulatory agencies need to be asked to pre-approve vaccine use in emergencies; ethics committees that greenlight emergency use authorizations have to be asked to do this work in advance.

“This will move ahead as soon as this event is closed,” Kieny said. “After that we are having discussions about finalizing the preparations, making sure the protocol has been submitted in all the countries.”




http://www.statnews.com/2017/05/25/ebola-congo-update/

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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 02 2017 at 4:55pm
http://www.newsmax.com/World/Africa/AF-Congo-Ebola/2017/06/02/id/793839/

We have heard this before.

KINSHASA, Congo (AP) — Congo's health minister says there have been no new confirmed cases of Ebola and the outbreak has been controlled.

Health Minister Oly Ilunga Kalenga said Friday no new cases of the deadly virus have been confirmed in the Likati zone for more than 21 days, the maximum incubation period.

comment: We have also heard of it being spread sexually much longer than 21 days.  Let's go over this again

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonfortenbury/2014/10/15/21-days-not-a-long-enough-quarantine-for-ebola-according-to-new-study/#2cd7bf8b7b4d

A 21 day quarantine, after being infected with the Ebola virus, has become the standard quarantine recommendation for avoiding the spread of the virus. That's not long enough to eliminate the risk, suggested a new study published yesterday in PLOS Currents: Outbreaks.

By looking at data from past Ebola outbreaks, as well as the first nine months of the current Ebola outbreak, Drexel University environmental engineering professor Dr. Charles Haas pointed out that between 0.1 and 12 percent of the time, the incubation period for someone infected with Ebola was longer than 21 days, either by a few days or even a couple of weeks. The 0.1 figure comes from the 1976 Ebola outbreak in Zaire, which had far fewer cases analyzed than the other Ebola outbreaks looked at in this study that have had a higher number of cases with longer incubation periods, such as the Ebola outbreak in Congo in 1995 and the current outbreak in West Africa.

comment: We need to be vigilant and not in such a rush to calm everyone down. For one thing there is civil unrest and it may have spread outside the outbreak area.

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