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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic.

Ebola is back - Outbreak

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Medclinician View Drop Down
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    Posted: May 15 2017 at 8:19am
After a long time a not worrying about disease and getting into way too much politics the killer virus is back and we may be on the verge of more outbreaks in Africa.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 15 2017 at 7:59pm
^Thanks, Med, it was bound to happen sooner or later!  Fun time is over!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 16 2017 at 8:22am
Without sounding like I'm putting any kind of positive spin on an Ebola outbreak, at least it happened in the Congo. These guys know more about Ebola than anyone, having dealt with numerous outbreaks over the course of decades. They're under no illusion as to the cause, whereas the West African outbreak was fueled by superstition, dangerous burial practices, higher population densities and misinformation. I doubt we'll see the uncontrolled spread we saw there.

We should fully expect this. It's inevitable that Ebola and it's extended family of Filoviruses will keep reappearing, especially given the region's appetite for bushmeat, and our continuing push into previously uninhabited forests.


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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 17 2017 at 2:36am
It is true that it was inevitable and it is amazing it has been so long since there have been real problems. This is one to keep an eye on because this is how it started before. Although they are just reporting a few, there are probably for more out there.

Here is a current broadcast from Africa.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 18 2017 at 2:07pm
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/world/africa/ebola-outbreak-congo-virus.html?_r=0

The number of suspected cases of Ebola has risen to 18 from nine in less than a week in an isolated part of Democratic Republic of Congo, where three have died from the disease since April 22, the World Health Organization said on Thursday.

The W.H.O. was criticized for responding too slowly to an outbreak in West Africa in 2014 that left more than 11,000 people dead, and Dr. Peter Salama, the executive director of the organization’s health emergencies program, said at a briefing that it was essential to “never, ever underestimate Ebola” and to “make sure we have a no-regrets approach to this outbreak.”

The risk from the outbreak is “high at the national level,” the W.H.O. said, because the disease was so severe and was spreading in a remote area in northeastern Congo with “suboptimal surveillance” and limited access to health care.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 18 2017 at 2:15pm
Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

^Thanks, Med, it was bound to happen sooner or later!  Fun time is over!


Your right. Fun time is over. What is most disturbing about this is we may not be getting the real numbers yet and the outbreak may be far worse than they are reporting.

I don't like zeroing in on these things - like intuition when there is about to be real trouble. - but this one feels bad. One can assume that there is always a form of Ebola circulating and perhaps people have developed some immunity. New outbreaks would suggest it has mutated.

Over the next week we will know in terms of the fatality rate which is now at 3 out of 18. Of course, you can't base anything on so few cases.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 18 2017 at 2:19pm
Independent News on YouTube. Current known infections 19. This also tracks the outbreak from Patient Zero.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 19 2017 at 7:17am
No one is paying attention to this outbreak and it grows worse by the day. People have become so wrapped up in politics that they forget our greatest threat to national security and also survival would be an Ebola Pandemic.

"Those who cannot remember the past, are condemned to repeat it"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_SantayanaThe number of suspected cases of Ebola has risen to 29 from nine in less than a week in an isolated part of Democratic Republic of Congo, where three people have died from the disease since April 22, the World Health Organization said on Thursday.

The W.H.O. was criticized for responding too slowly to an outbreak in West Africa in 2014 that left more than 11,000 people dead, and Dr. Peter Salama, the executive director of the organization’s health emergencies program, said at a briefing that it was essential to “never, ever underestimate Ebola” and to “make sure we have a no-regrets approach to this outbreak.”

The risk from the outbreak is “high at the national level,” the W.H.O. said, because the disease was so severe and was spreading in a remote area in northeastern Congo with “suboptimal surveillance” and limited access to health care.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 21 2017 at 6:25am




History of Ebola in Africa as well as current outbreak in Likati.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 21 2017 at 6:31am
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2017/05/who-9-more-ebola-cases-drc-29-total

The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) grew by nine more cases, according to the World Health Organization (WHO) African region's situation report posted today.

There are now 29 total cases, with 2 cases confirmed, 2 probable, and 25 suspected. With the three deaths from the deadly virus previously reported, the case-fatality rate is now 10%.

The nine new cases were identified in Ngayi and Azande, both located in the Likati health district. In contrast to previously published maps, Azande is now placed in northern DRC, away from the border with South Sudan.

No health workers have been infected so far, according to the report, and most patients have presented with fever, vomiting, and bloody diarrhea. The WHO said scientists are now following 416 contacts, up from yesterday's 400.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 21 2017 at 12:59pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-21/ebola-spreading-infections-800-last-week-officials-race-track-down-400-possible-cont

As we learned in 2014, all it takes is one infected individual to make it through an airport checkpoint.

With international travel via airports, trains and cars available throughout the region, a single infected individual on an airplane could infect scores of others, who in turn could infect scores more.

The following Ebola model from Yaneer Bar-Yam, who has successfully simulated and predicted such events as the rise of the Arab Spring, shows how an Ebola contagion may look.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7GXAxnfiq8">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7GXAxnfiq8

The above model is based on Ebola’s current infection rates and doesn’t take into account its possible evolution as it spreads from human-to-human.

According to scientists, the 2014 strain began hyper-evolving, to the point that had it not been contained and continued to spread through human contact, it could have gone airborne, making it as easy to catch as a common cold.

In response to this unprecedented threat, US government officials began preparing for mass casualties, reportedly going so far as to develop plans for Community Care Centers where infected individuals, or those suspected of infections, would be detained indefinitely.

DJ; Climatechange, lack of government, refugeecrises, will make the problem much worse. Belgium has a large Congo minority with lots of travel....

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 22 2017 at 12:23pm
Originally posted by Dutch Josh Dutch Josh wrote:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-21/ebola-spreading-infections-800-last-week-officials-race-track-down-400-possible-cont

As we learned in 2014, all it takes is one infected individual to make it through an airport checkpoint.

With international travel via airports, trains and cars available throughout the region, a single infected individual on an airplane could infect scores of others, who in turn could infect scores more.

The following Ebola model from Yaneer Bar-Yam, who has successfully simulated and predicted such events as the rise of the Arab Spring, shows how an Ebola contagion may look.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7GXAxnfiq8">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7GXAxnfiq8

The above model is based on Ebola’s current infection rates and doesn’t take into account its possible evolution as it spreads from human-to-human.

According to scientists, the 2014 strain began hyper-evolving, to the point that had it not been contained and continued to spread through human contact, it could have gone airborne, making it as easy to catch as a common cold.

In response to this unprecedented threat, US government officials began preparing for mass casualties, reportedly going so far as to develop plans for Community Care Centers where infected individuals, or those suspected of infections, would be detained indefinitely.

DJ; Climatechange, lack of government, refugeecrises, will make the problem much worse. Belgium has a large Congo minority with lots of travel....



We cannot be too careful in the U.S. about screening people from countries which may have Ebola. It would appear that Ebola has mutated again. While it may not be as virulent with only 10% fatality - a 5% loss of our population would shut down our infrastructure.

Did we make Ebola?  We have developed biological strains of most viruses and bacteria in some cases "just to see if it could be done".

With the mobility of people by jet now things could be global in 24 hours. HIV started in America with a patient Zero as did Swine Flu in Mexico with a young boy. 

This site was born when a lot of people were getting Avian Flu and we are at a point where many bugs have mutated and are resistant to everything we have.

In a hot wet place - the breeding ground for all that is viral - but like HIV - it can spread.

We need to remain vigilant and aware. We have a lot more to fear from Ebola than a nuclear bomb and our vulnerability to biological terrorism is the worst of any of it.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 22 2017 at 12:25pm
It continues to spread...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 2 hours 60 minutes ago at 11:00am
Going to stay on this one because the outbreak still is spreading.

http://amonpointtv.com/2017/05/25/congos-ebola-outbreak-threatens-car/

The World Health Organisation (WHO) on Thursday warned that an Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo could spread to the neighbouring Central African Republic (CAR).
 
Militia violence has forced thousands of people to flee across the border to CAR.
 
Two cases of the virus have been confirmed by the WHO in Congo’s remote northeastern Bas-Uele province since early May. Four people have died so far among the 43 suspected and confirmed cases. Experts said that the affected area’s isolation, it is about 1,400 km from the capital Kinshasa, has helped contain the spread of the highly contagious hemorrhagic fever.
 
The WHO said, yet recent attacks by Christian militias in CAR’s border town of Bangassou have driven about 2,750 people into Bas-Uele, raising the risk that the Ebola outbreak could spread across the border. “There is a big concern about Ebola spreading to Central African Republic after this displacement,” said Michel Yao, the WHO’s representative in the CAR.
 
“We are worried as the refugees are close to the epicenter of the outbreak,” he told the Thomson Reuters Foundation, adding they could become infected and carry the virus back home. Yao said, while this latest Ebola outbreak is Congo’s eighth, the most of any country, CAR lacks experience in dealing with such an epidemic, and its health system is weak after four years of conflict.

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