Click to Translate to English Click to Translate to French  Click to Translate to Spanish  Click to Translate to German  Click to Translate to Italian  Click to Translate to Japanese  Click to Translate to Chinese Simplified  Click to Translate to Korean  Click to Translate to Arabic  Click to Translate to Russian  Click to Translate to Portuguese


Forum Home Forum Home > General Discussion > Latest News
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - Experts decry lack of flu pandemic readiness
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login

Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic

Experts decry lack of flu pandemic readiness

 Post Reply Post Reply
Author
Message
arirish View Drop Down
Admin Group
Admin Group
Avatar

Joined: June 19 2013
Location: Arkansas
Status: Offline
Points: 38145
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Experts decry lack of flu pandemic readiness
    Posted: January 22 2018 at 9:48pm
Experts decry lack of flu pandemic readiness, commitment

Armed with 1940s-vintage flu vaccine technology and supported by only anemic funding for developing truly revolutionary vaccines, the world is woefully unprepared for the next influenza pandemic, and the Trump administration is ignoring the problem, two experts wrote in a New York Times op-ed piece yesterday.

"There is no apparent effort to make [next-generation flu] vaccines a priority in the current administration. Its national security strategy published last month cites Ebola and SARS as potential bioterrorism and pandemic threats, yet makes no mention of the risk of pandemic influenza nor any aspect of critical vaccine research and development," write infectious disease expert Michael Osterholm, PhD, MPH, and his book coauthor Mark Olshaker.

Osterholm is director of the University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), which publishes CIDRAP News. He and Olshaker last year wrote Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Killer Germs, which details the most pressing public health threats and includes a nine-point action plan.

The urgency expressed in the commentary was echoed by other experts.
'Worst-case scenario'

In their op-ed piece, Osterholm and Olshaker point out that the infamous "Spanish flu" pandemic of 1918-19 killed 50 million to 100 million people worldwide—at a time when the globe held only a quarter of the population it now houses.

In addition, the current flu season demonstrates how disruptive even everyday seasonal flu can be.

"The next few weeks," the two write, "will highlight how ill prepared we are for even 'ordinary' flu. A worldwide influenza pandemic is literally the worst-case scenario in public health."

Amesh Adalja, MD, senior scholar with the Center for Health Security at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, concurs.

"The difficulties currently being experienced in handling a predictable rougher-than-usual flu season should be a wake-up call to all that we will be greatly underprepared for the infectious disease emergencies we are certain to face in the years ahead," he told CIDRAP News.
Antiquated weaponry

Outdated flu vaccines lie at the heart of the problem.

"Our current vaccines are based on 1940s research. Deploying them against a severe global pandemic would be equivalent to trying to stop an advancing battle tank with a single rifle," Osterholm and Olshaker write. "Limited global manufacturing capacity combined with the five to six months it takes to make these vaccines mean many people would never even have a chance to be vaccinated.

"The only real solution is a universal vaccine that effectively attacks all influenza A strains, with reliable protection lasting for years, like other modern vaccines."

A universal vaccine targets the "conserved" portion of influenza viruses, the parts that vary little from strain to strain. Such a vaccine would protect against not only the four strains commonly circulating during flu season in any given year but also any strains—such as H7N9 avian flu, which has caused mounting cases in China in recent years—that cause a future pandemic.

"I don't think anything else is more important for public health than developing a universal influenza vaccine," said John Barry, author of The Great Influenza, a definitive account of the 1918-19 pandemic that was said to be instrumental in building momentum for US preparedness efforts during the George W. Bush administration.

"The threat of a pandemic virus aside, a vaccine targeting conserved portions of the virus would very likely be far more effective than current seasonal vaccines, saving hundreds of thousands of lives a year," Barry says. "It makes no sense that it has not been a higher priority in past decades."

Adalja adds, "The pressing need for a universal flu vaccine, as expertly argued in the op-ed, is becoming more critical as the threat of H7N9 looms. Facing such challenges with technology that is obsolete and suboptimally effective is a recipe for disaster."

In Deadliest Enemy, Osterholm and Olshaker paint a fictitious yet chilling scenario of what an H7N9 flu pandemic could look like and how the disease would spread rapidly among today's highly mobile global population.
Lack of funding commitment

In their op-ed piece, the pair details the bleak reality of current US funding efforts.

"Although the National Institutes of Health has publicly declared developing a vaccine a priority, it has only about $32 million this year specifically for such research. The Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, the other federal agency responsible for developing and making available new vaccines for emergency response, has in fiscal year 2017 only a single project for $43 million supporting game-changing influenza vaccines."

But together those funds total less than 8% of what the US government spends each year on developing an effective HIV vaccine, which is still a long way off.

"By contrast," Osterholm and Olshaker write, "the search for an H.I.V. vaccine—still a scientific long shot—receives $1 billion annually (which it should). We estimate that international governments, vaccine manufacturers and the philanthropic community must make a similar commitment to influenza vaccine research if the kind of vaccine we need is to developed in the next 10 years."

They note that eradicating smallpox in the 1970s was arguably public health's greatest accomplishment, adding, "We have the tools to potentially accomplish this with influenza, and with the stakes as high as they are, isn't it worth a Manhattan Project-scale effort to defend ourselves?"

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2018/01/experts-decry-lack-flu-pandemic-readiness-commitment
Buy more ammo!
Back to Top
jacksdad View Drop Down
Chief Moderator
Chief Moderator
Avatar

Joined: September 08 2007
Location: San Diego
Status: Offline
Points: 42551
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2018 at 10:57pm
A universal vaccine has the potential to be a game changer - if it ever materializes. Without it, a major pandemic sparked by a virus like H1N1 Spanish Flu (or worse) would roll over us without even noticing our attempts to prevent it's spread. Absolutely nothing we do will stop it once it finds it's feet and puts us in it's cross-hairs. 

I find it interesting that the 50-100 million figure for deaths attributed to Spanish Flu is far more widely used than it used to be, even by experts like Osterholm. It used to be considered alarmist, but it seems that the lower estimates are now reserved for government officials intent on placating us. The truth is that the reality is far worse than the authorities would have us believe.

100 million people dead during the course of the 1918 pandemic, with as many as 90% of those succumbing to the virus's second wave. Truly terrifying to contemplate when you consider it only lasted about three months, which equates to a million deaths a day in a world with one quarter of today's population and far less reliance on technology. A virus packing the same punch today would see the healthcare system utterly overwhelmed, the lights go out, the faucets run dry, and every store shelf empty in weeks.

Prep well and be ready to shelter in place (or bug out if the situation dictates it) because no government agency will be able to help once it hits the fan.


"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
Back to Top
Satori View Drop Down
Senior Advisor Group
Senior Advisor Group
Avatar

Joined: June 03 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 28645
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 27 2018 at 4:49am
the flu was rather slow in getting to my neck of the woods
but it is now here with a vengeance
local news report says the hospital here (a 225 bed facility) has had over 200 cases of flu
they did not say how many of those cases resulted in hospitalization
but I can tell you the facility is at capacity
one day last week ,according to a reliable  source,there were NO general medical beds
NO IMC level beds and only one bed available in the ICU
a MAJOR medical facility about an hour away from here has patients in the hallways
and Friday one local elementary school had one third of their students call in sick

ANYBODY who thinks the healthcare system can effectively deal with a real pandemic is sadly mistaken
already the system is straining
“The point of modern propaganda isn’t only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.” Gary Kasparov
Back to Top
CRS, DrPH View Drop Down
Expert Level Adviser
Expert Level Adviser


Joined: January 20 2014
Status: Offline
Points: 16800
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2018 at 8:37pm
Originally posted by jacksdad jacksdad wrote:


Prep well and be ready to shelter in place (or bug out if the situation dictates it) because no government agency will be able to help once it hits the fan.

Sage advice indeed!!  As a former Boy Scout (and leader), I live by the Scout motto "Be Prepared!" 
CRS, DrPH
Back to Top
jacksdad View Drop Down
Chief Moderator
Chief Moderator
Avatar

Joined: September 08 2007
Location: San Diego
Status: Offline
Points: 42551
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2018 at 11:28am
Same here, Chuck. I was a Patrol Leader myself many years ago, and I've been an adult leader as my son has moved through Cub Scouts and now Boy Scouts.

"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
Back to Top
carbon20 View Drop Down
Admin Group
Admin Group


Joined: April 08 2006
Location: West Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 24986
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2018 at 1:20pm
a guy i work with ,his family live in Cape Town South Africa ,

they just about to run out of water ,

he was asking me the best way to store water ,

it never ceases to amaze me how little people know about basic survival skills,

i told him how to construct a makeshift water tank,

and then went on to explain  how to distille fresh water from sea water ,(they live next to the Ocean)

he never had a clue,

my point is ,its ok to stock pile food and such , 

but you really have to prepare your mind ,

i.e know your S..t

and always be one step ahead of the "Mob"

the FIVE P's..........

prior ,preparation ,prevents ,poor ,performance......


                                                    i know i will survive 


thanks to AFT keeping me from not thinking im a little nutty 

PREP ON GOOD BUDDIES Wink

ps Jacksdad ,i gave him your saying about any government rushing to help .....lol

now thats Sound advice...............


                                 
12 Monkeys...............
1995 ‧ Science fiction film/Thriller ‧ 2h 11m a must for AFT
Back to Top
Satori View Drop Down
Senior Advisor Group
Senior Advisor Group
Avatar

Joined: June 03 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 28645
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2018 at 3:18pm
heard from a reliable source that a local hospital is having problems keeping masks for the staff in stock
one floor was running out and called supply for more
"they went all over the hospital and found us two boxes"

NOT two cases but two small boxes Dead
“The point of modern propaganda isn’t only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.” Gary Kasparov
Back to Top
jacksdad View Drop Down
Chief Moderator
Chief Moderator
Avatar

Joined: September 08 2007
Location: San Diego
Status: Offline
Points: 42551
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2018 at 4:25pm
"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
Back to Top
jacksdad View Drop Down
Chief Moderator
Chief Moderator
Avatar

Joined: September 08 2007
Location: San Diego
Status: Offline
Points: 42551
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2018 at 4:27pm
Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

ps Jacksdad ,i gave him your saying about any government rushing to help .....lol

now thats Sound advice...............




"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
Back to Top
Satori View Drop Down
Senior Advisor Group
Senior Advisor Group
Avatar

Joined: June 03 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 28645
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2018 at 5:59pm
Originally posted by jacksdad jacksdad wrote:

Not flu related, but an interesting development at the CDC...



https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/31/dr-brenda-fitzgerald-head-of-the-centers-for-disease-control-and-prevention-resigns.html



there ARE some good people in government

now someone get me a microscopeLOL
“The point of modern propaganda isn’t only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.” Gary Kasparov
Back to Top
arirish View Drop Down
Admin Group
Admin Group
Avatar

Joined: June 19 2013
Location: Arkansas
Status: Offline
Points: 38145
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2018 at 6:13pm

Comment: So, here's something else you can thank the Trump admin for! We're in the middle of an epidemic and medical supplies are running short!


Shortage of medical supplies as Puerto Rico still recovers from hurricane

Health care professionals in the Meriden area and across the U.S. are scrambling to address shortages of intravenous bags and other medical necessities, as Puerto Rico, a major supplier, continues to recover from Hurricane Maria.

“It’s greatly complicating things,” said Eric Arlia, director of pharmacy at Hartford Hospital. “At a minimum it’s taking at least 50 percent of our time managing drug and intravenous, or IV, shortages. After two three-day weekends, it’s more like 80 percent.”

Supplies of intravenous bags have traditionally been tight, but the hurricane has crippled one of three suppliers, Baxter International Corp. who up until recently, was running on generators.

“The medical products industry has a significant presence in Puerto Rico, and the disruption to this industry has had ramifications for patients both on the island and throughout the U.S.” stated Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb, M.D. “The FDA has been working closely with federal and Puerto Rican authorities to help stabilize the medical products manufacturing sector.”

Hospitals across the country are reporting shortages of intravenous fluids, particularly sodium chloride 0.9-percent injection bags, a type of saline bag. Saline intravenous fluids, used to inject drugs in hospital and out-patient settings, have been in short supply since 2014, but the electrical issues in Puerto Rico has exacerbated the shortage.

The FDA is working with Baxter to help restore operations on the island, and with other manufacturers.

“This remains a key area of focus for the agency and we expect that the shortage of IV fluids will improve in early 2018 based on the information we are receiving from the manufacturers,” according to the FDA’s latest statement.

Locally, hospitals and doctors within the Hartford Healthcare network are monitoring supply and need, and also talking to manufacturers. They are sharing supplies as needed between facilities, and also using alternative treatments that require staff retraining. MidState Medical Center in Meriden and the Bradley Memorial Campus in Southington are part of the Hartford Healthcare network.

“We meet two times a week with the pharmacy and the supply chain,” Arlia said.

Hospital administrators have also met with U.S. Sen. Richard Blumenthal to explain the challenges.

“We’re asking what can be done to speed recovery of manufacturing and repair the island’s ailing infrastructure,” Blumenthal said.

Further complicating matters, a second supplier – Braun Medical Inc. – was forced to shut down its plant in California three weeks ago for repairs. A third manufacturer, Hosperia, was recently sold to ICU Medical.

“What we really need in this country is more redundancy,” Arlia said. “Things happen. It’s a setup for failure.”

Masonicare in Wallingford is also feeling the pinch as manufacturers ration the supply.

“The shortage is real and a concern to all providers,” said Masonicare spokeswoman Margaret Steeves. “We are fortunate that we have been able to meet our needs and patient care has not been affected; nevertheless, we are watching it very, very closely.”

The Connecticut Hospital Association is also monitoring the situation.

“The FDA has indicated the supply problem should be resolving soon,” said CHA spokeswoman Michele Sharp. “The bulk supply of this product is essentially outside the control of hospitals and healthcare providers.”
http://www.myrecordjournal.com/News/State/Hospitals-face-supply-shortage-after-Hurricane-Maria.html
Buy more ammo!
Back to Top
Satori View Drop Down
Senior Advisor Group
Senior Advisor Group
Avatar

Joined: June 03 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 28645
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2018 at 6:34pm

Hospitals using alternative for Morphine due to shortage


http://www.wwltv.com/news/local/hospitals-using-alternative-for-morphine-due-to-shortage/512654086


people have NO idea how very fragile our medical system is

oh the stories I could tell

but that will have to wait until I retire

I don't want to get fired

“The point of modern propaganda isn’t only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.” Gary Kasparov
Back to Top
Satori View Drop Down
Senior Advisor Group
Senior Advisor Group
Avatar

Joined: June 03 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 28645
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 01 2018 at 8:40am
one local hospital FORCING nurses to work overtime
and another hospital is now rumored to be instituting the same policy this week
“The point of modern propaganda isn’t only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.” Gary Kasparov
Back to Top
Satori View Drop Down
Senior Advisor Group
Senior Advisor Group
Avatar

Joined: June 03 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 28645
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 01 2018 at 1:00pm

To Deal With a Flu Onslaught, Emergency Rooms Expand Into Waiting Rooms

https://www.wsj.com/articles/to-deal-with-a-flu-onslaught-emergency-rooms-expand-into-waiting-rooms-and-hallways-1517481000


The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in its latest briefing Friday that hospitalization rates are now similar to those of the 2014-15 flu season, when up to 56,000 people died from flu-related illnesses.


“The point of modern propaganda isn’t only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.” Gary Kasparov
Back to Top
FluMom View Drop Down
Senior Admin Group
Senior Admin Group
Avatar

Joined: February 11 2008
Status: Offline
Points: 19061
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (3) Thanks(3)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 01 2018 at 8:44pm
Why blame Trump for shortages of anything. Obama, Bush, Clinton are the ones who chased out of the U.S. all the companies making saline, and all the other items as well as drugs. Trump has been in office for one year and you blame him for everything.

Gee you all believed Obama when he blamed Bush for everything bad...lol you all have short memories! At least Trump is bringing back companies to this country with the new Tax laws! Maybe we can get medical supplies being made in the main land U.S.

We have all known for a long time that the government will not protect us from any pandemic that is why we at all here. So it is not a big surprise that this flu is bad and we may get a worse one. So prep on, some of may live through the bad one and many will die.
Always Be Prepared
Back to Top
Technophobe View Drop Down
Senior Moderator
Senior Moderator
Avatar

Joined: January 16 2014
Location: Scotland
Status: Offline
Points: 51105
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2018 at 2:44am
I did believe Obama.  I was wrong.  The previous administration did make things difficult for him, but not impossible.   The buck still stops with the President himself, at least in the majority.

Now I have learned from my previous mistake.  Even more of the buck stops with the President this time, as his party has the majority in all three houses.  He has more manouvering space than Obama did.

More to the point, I can see the money being squeezed out of America's excuse for a health system.  This is a nasty year for flu (which any President aware of anything beyond his own ego should have seen) and needed extra funding to prepare, not radically less.  Our current government is right-wing, the equivalent of Republican, we are facing a HUGE divorce bill over brexit, the last government left the current one no money at all and yet still it put extra flu plans in place for this year.  Our flu cases have peaked already and our death toll is tiny.

The more people covered by health insurance, employment law and welfare, the less people are forced to work when ill.  Sick workers spread disease.  If you don't want universal healthcare for humanitarian reasons, at least consider it for self-protection.

You have yourselves to bleme.  Sorry!
Absence of proof is not proof of absence.
Back to Top
Technophobe View Drop Down
Senior Moderator
Senior Moderator
Avatar

Joined: January 16 2014
Location: Scotland
Status: Offline
Points: 51105
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2018 at 2:58am
Ps., Just imagine how things woukd have gone during the ebola outbreak if this had happened before it.  Remember Thomas Duncan?

CDC to cut by 80 percent efforts to prevent global disease outbreak



Four years after the United States pledged to help the world fight infectious-disease epidemics such as Ebola, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is dramatically downsizing its epidemic prevention activities in 39 out of 49 countries because money is running out, U.S. government officials said.

The CDC programs, part of a global health security initiative, train front-line workers in outbreak detection and work to strengthen laboratory and emergency response systems in countries where disease risks are greatest. The goal is to stop future outbreaks at their source.

Most of the funding comes from a one-time, five-year emergency package that Congress approved to respond to the 2014 Ebola epidemic in West Africa. About $600 million was awarded to the CDC to help countries prevent infectious-disease threats from becoming epidemics. That money is slated to run out by September 2019. Despite statements from President Trump and senior administration officials affirming the importance of controlling outbreaks, officials and global infectious-disease experts are not anticipating that the administration will budget additional resources.

Two weeks ago, the CDC began notifying staffers and officials abroad about its plan to downsize these activities, because officials assume there will be “no new resources,” said a senior government official speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss budget matters. Notice is being given now to CDC country directors “as the very first phase of a transition,” the official said. There is a need for “forward planning,” the official said, to accommodate longer advance notice for staffers and for leases and property agreements. The downsizing decision was first reported by the Wall Street Journal.

The CDC plans to narrow its focus to 10 “priority countries,” starting in October 2019, the official said. They are India, Thailand and Vietnam in Asia; Jordan in the Middle East; Kenya, Uganda, Liberia, Nigeria and Senegal in Africa; and Guatemala in Central America.

Countries where the CDC is planning to scale back include some of the world’s hot spots for emerging infectious disease, such as China, Pakistan, Haiti, Rwanda and Congo. Last year, when Congo experienced a potentially deadly Ebola outbreak in a remote, forested area, CDC-trained disease detectives and rapid responders helped contain it quickly.

In Congo's capital of Kinshasa, an emergency operations center established last year with CDC funding is operational but still needs staffers to be trained and protocols and systems to be put in place so data can be collected accurately from across the country, said Carolyn Reynolds, a vice president at PATH, a global health technology nonprofit group that helped the Congolese set up the center.

This next phase of work may be at risk if CDC cuts back its support, she said. “It would be akin to building the firehouse without providing the trained firemen and information and tools to fight the fire,” Reynolds said in an email.

If more funding becomes available in the fiscal year that starts Oct. 1, the CDC could resume work in China and Congo, as well as Ethiopia, Indonesia and Sierra Leone, another government official said, also speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss budget matters.

In the meantime, the CDC will continue its work with dozens of countries on other public health issues, such as HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, polio eradication, vaccine-preventable diseases, influenza and emerging infectious diseases.

Global health organizations said critical momentum will be lost if epidemic prevention funding is reduced, leaving the world unprepared for the next outbreak. The risks of deadly and costly pandemic threats are higher than ever, especially in low- and middle-income countries with the weakest public health systems, experts say. A rapid response by a country can mean the difference between an isolated outbreak and a global catastrophe. In less than 36 hours, infectious disease and pathogens can travel from a remote village to major cities on any continent to become a global crisis.

On Monday, a coalition of global health organizations representing more than 200 groups and companies sent a letter to U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar asking the administration to reconsider the planned reductions to programs they described as essential to health and national security.

“Not only will CDC be forced to narrow its countries of operations, but the U.S. also stands to lose vital information about epidemic threats garnered on the ground through trusted relationships, real-time surveillance, and research,” wrote the coalition, which included the Global Health Security Agenda Consortium and the Global Health Council.

The coalition also warned that complacency after outbreaks have been contained leads to funding cuts, followed by ever more costly outbreaks. The Ebola outbreak cost U.S. taxpayers $5.4 billion in emergency supplemental funding, forced several U.S. cities to spend millions in containment, disrupted global business and required the deployment of the U.S. military to address the threat.

“This is the front line against terrible organisms,” said Tom Frieden, the former CDC director who led the agency during the Ebola and Zika outbreaks. He now heads Resolve to Save Lives, a global initiative to prevent epidemics. Referring to dangerous pathogens, he said: “Like terrorism, you can’t fight it just within our borders. You’ve got to fight epidemic diseases where they emerge.”

Without additional help, low-income countries are not going to be able to maintain laboratory networks to detect dangerous pathogens, Frieden said. “Either we help or hope we get lucky it isn’t an epidemic that travelers will catch or spread to our country,” Frieden said.

The U.S. downsizing could also lead other countries to cut back or drop out from “the most serious multinational effort in many years to stop epidemics at their sources overseas,” said Tom Inglesby, director of the Center for Health Security at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

CDC spokeswoman Kathy Harben said the agency and federal partners remain committed to “prevent, detect and respond to infectious disease threats.”

The United States helped launch an initiative known as the Global Health Security Agenda in 2014 to help countries reduce their vulnerabilities to public health threats. More than 60 countries now participate in that effort. At a meeting in Uganda in the fall, administration officials led by Tim Ziemer, the White House senior director for global health security, affirmed U.S. support to extend the initiative to 2024.

“The world remains under-prepared to prevent, detect, and respond to infectious disease outbreaks, whether naturally occurring, accidental, or deliberately released,” Ziemer wrote in a blog post before the meeting. “. . . We recognize that the cost of failing to control outbreaks and losing lives is far greater than the cost of prevention.”

The CDC has about $150 million remaining from the one-time Ebola emergency package for these global health security programs, the senior government official said. That money will be used this year and in fiscal 2019, but without substantial new resources, that leaves only the agency's core annual budget, which has remained flat at about $50 million to $60 million.

Officials at the CDC, the Department of Health and Human Services and the National Security Council pushed for more funding in the president's fiscal 2019 budget to be released this month. A senior government official said Thursday that the president's budget "will include details on global health security funding," but declined to elaborate.

Read more:

CDC Director Brenda Fitzgerald resigns because of conflicts over financial interests

Ebola's lessons, painfully learned at great costs in dollars and human lives

Thomas Duncan, the Texas Ebola patient, has died


                          

Source:  https:///www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/02/01/cdc-to-cut-by-80-percent-efforts-to-prevent-global-disease-outbreak/?utm_term=.0786d03a9777
Absence of proof is not proof of absence.
Back to Top
Loribearme View Drop Down
Advisor Group
Advisor Group
Avatar

Joined: September 06 2007
Location: United States
Status: Offline
Points: 1342
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Loribearme Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 06 2018 at 6:37am
I'm concerned that this is just the first wave and by October this year could be a replay of October 1918.
Back to Top
carbon20 View Drop Down
Admin Group
Admin Group


Joined: April 08 2006
Location: West Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 24986
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 06 2018 at 2:05pm

New Look at 1918/1919 El Niño Suggests Link to Flu Pandemic

El Niño—Spanish for the child—is the name climate scientists have given the occasional periods of Pacific Ocean warming that play havoc with global weather patterns. For example, El Niño is known to intensify winter storms for residents of the West Coast, Gulf states, and southeast United States. El Niño also dampens Atlantic hurricane formation and can increase the number of Pacific hurricanes.

The coming and going of El Niño and disruption of global weather patterns have broad consequences for agriculture, energy consumption, and public safety. Some scientists have proposed that El Niño and its consequences might be intensifying due to global warming. The strong El Niño events of 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 support this idea.

However, a new NOAA-funded study shows that the 1918/1919 El Niño was one of the strongest of the 20th century, a finding counter to earlier analyses that viewed it as weak. This research could ultimately lead to a better understanding of how El Niño events impact weather in the United States and globally. It also suggests a possible link between El Niño and the 1918 flu pandemic. NOAA's Climate Program Office funded the study.

Led by Benjamin Giese, Ph.D., at Texas A&M University, the research team relied on a newly available atmospheric circulation dataset covering 1908 through 1958 to draw a more complete picture of the 1918/1919 El Niño. During World War I, ocean and atmospheric observations were sparse. The lack of direct observations has hampered understanding of the 1918/1919 El Niño.

The new atmospheric dataset, produced by NOAA and University of Colorado scientists through the 20th Century Reanalysis Project, [https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/20thC_Rean/] filled in missing atmospheric data needed to produce a computer model of ocean conditions for that time period.

"What people have been doing to look at past El Niños is to use very sparse datasets and extrapolate based on patterns we know about during recent years," Giese explains. "But those patterns can change."

The team discovered that the pattern of the 1918/1919 El Niño was quite different than those observed in recent years. It was strong in the central Pacific but not along the South American coast. Since most of the observations in 1918 were along the coast, those observations missed the region of greatest warming.

The study raises questions about our understanding of El Niño and climate change. The results from the scientific team's "hindcast" portray El Niño events as stronger at the beginning and end of the 20th century with weaker events in the middle. The scientists say that their method could be applied to other El Niño events for which observed measurements were sparse.

The scientists also noted that the 1918/1919 El Niños central Pacific location links it more closely to drought in India. A severe drought took place in India in 1918, as the monsoon rains failed to develop that summer. The drought coincided with a flu pandemic that was sweeping the globe at that time – with tragic results. The influenza pandemic killed an estimated 18 million people in India. Globally, the 1918 pandemic is thought to have claimed about 50 million lives.

"1918 was one of the worst droughts of the 20th century in India. There was famine and a lack of potable water, thus a compromised population," says Giese. "It is clear that climate played a role in the mortality of peope in India. This is an example of how climate can impact human health. I think it raises intriguing questions."

Co-authors include Gilbert Compo, Prashant Sardeshmukh, and Jeffrey Whitaker of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory; Niall Slowey and Sulagna Ray of Texas A&M University; and James Carton of the University of Maryland. Compo and Sardeshmukh are also affiliated with CIRES, the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, a joint institute of the University of Colorado at Boulder and NOAA.

The study, "The 1918/1919 El Niño," is published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society and is available online at http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2903.1.

From NOAA Public Affairs, 2010

12 Monkeys...............
1995 ‧ Science fiction film/Thriller ‧ 2h 11m a must for AFT
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply
  Share Topic   

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down