Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Family Cluster (3) H7N9 Bird Flu China |
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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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Posted: January 28 2014 at 10:03pm |
Family cluster of bird flu cases brings China’s total H7N9 infections to 110Li Jing jing.li@scmp.com PUBLISHED : Wednesday, 29 January, 2014 A family cluster of H7N9 bird flu cases has been reported in Zhejiang where both parents and their daughter contracted the disease, bringing mainland China’s total number of the confirmed cases over the last year to 110, Xinhua News Agency reported. An official with the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention told Legal Evening News on Tuesday that the parents, who live in Xiaoshan, had worked as vegetable dealers in a wet market before falling sick, and that the daughter had also briefly helped at the market. Yet it was still unclear if human-to-human transmission among the family members in Xiaoshan was to blame, or whether all of them had been exposed to live poultry, the report said, adding that the health authorities are still investigating. On Tuesday, Jiangsu province reported one new case of H7N9, while three new cases were reported in Guangdong and four in Zhejiang. Among the total 110 confirmed cases this year, 20 people have died. The National Health and Family Planning Commission admitted earlier this week that it could not rule out the possibility of "limited" human-to-human infections of H7N9, but there was no evidence of sustained transmission yet. Meanwhile, police have tightened the crackdown on rumour-mongering of the disease, according to Xinhua. Police in Shenyang, capital city of Liaoning province, detained one man on Monday for spreading the rumour that the virus is contained in pickled chicken feet - a popular snack - on social media. Authorities in Shanxi’s Taiyuan and Qizhou also arrested three for making up infectious cases in both cities. http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1416539/family-cluster-bird-flu-cases-brings-chinas-total-h7n9-infections-110 |
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Kilt2
Adviser Group Joined: December 17 2007 Status: Offline Points: 7414 |
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Family clusters are the the way it shows mutation.
The clusters get longer and longer and then leave the family and get to the village as the clusters while still blind - come to an end - show the virus is making the changes it needs to strike a new host - Humanity. When the cluster gets to 100 people, shut the gates because the pandemic will begin within days. This is it. |
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Looks like Chinese health officials are leaning toward all 3 family members having contact with infected poultry. Comical. They're also back to arresting people who report cases. The virus could be changing, or h2h transmission is a little more common than what people are led to believe. |
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cobber
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Clusters are the canary in the coalmine for sure, but be aware of what type of cluster we are dealing with. An infection from an animal host is nothing to be to concerned about. If its an infection which passes from mother to daughter (for example) we have a problem.
The distinction is very important So far I believe they all worked in the markets and were exposed to birds. More info needed. The Chinese are a little lacking with where, what, and how details. If anyone has more info please post. I'm hellishly busy and don't have the time to research. Things we need to know is dates between infections with in the family's. This will give an indication. If they all got sick with in a few days of each other we have a common host. If the virus started more than five days apart we may be dealing with H2H. This is only an indicator Were all family members working in the markets? I read other blogs saying they all worked together. If there was one family member who stayed away, we may have H2H. Again this is only an indication. Kilt2. I've always said the thing to watch for is a small cluster in a remote location. To me this is a very strong indicator of H2H. I think clusters of 100 is almost too late. I suppose it depends on what you plan to do. I plan to buy shares in biotechs. I want a head start on the market.. By the way NNVC is good. (and cheap at the moment) . NVAX is good too, but a bit overpriced currently.
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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I agree, not nearly enough info here i.e. onset date for symptoms, did they test the poultry, etc.... One thing about the Chinese is that they will never release much info. If three from the same family contracted it from the market, then you would have to think there are a lot more infected from that same market. Way too many unanswered questions with this cluster.
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Experts investigate 3 cases of H7N9 bird flu in same family Health authorities in Zhejiang Province are investigating the source of infection in a family of three all diagnosed with the H7N9 bird flu, one of whom has since died.A 49-old-man surnamed Yu from Hangzhou,
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/national/Experts-investigate-3-cases-of-H7N9-bird-flu-in-same-family/shdaily.shtml#jtss-email According to this article, the father was diagnosed on January 20th, his 23 year old daughter three days later and the wife on January 27th. Do these dates suggest H2H? |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Those onset dates clearly signal human transmission in my opinion
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cobber
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Just looked up the timing!!!!!!!!
on Jan 20, A male 49 named Yu from the town of Hangzhou on Jan 23, A female 23 daughter of Yu on Jan 27, A female wife of Yu!!!!! Points to Human to Human I've lost count of how many H2H possibilities we have had. There was that health care worker (doctor?) always a sign! There was three suspected clusters back in August 2013. I think at least one was a probable H2H http://www.bmj.com/press-releases/2013/08/06/first-probable-person-person-transmission-new-bird-flu-virus-china There was also several odd occurences back in March 2013. I think it was also three family clusters too.. I also picked up on an oddball possibility between people from different towns. They both visited the same location on the same day. They both got sick and wasn't picked up by any media at the time. Now the Chinese government has confirmed "limited transmission" im beginning to think we are further down the rabbit hole than anyone believes. I expect the lid to blow off this sucker any day now, and mainstream media will be involved....
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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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China finally admits to Inter-human transmission of Bird-flu H2H
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Satori
Valued Member Joined: June 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 28655 |
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MANY thanks for that update Mahshadin VERY much appreciated just one more reason why I like this site you get the news LONG before it ever makes it to the main stream media (if it ever does ) |
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This article refers to FIVE confirmed clusters. Did I miss something?
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/chinese-new-year-2014-bird-flu-infection-fears-billion-people-head-home-1434463 |
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cobber
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Five cases is an understatement. There have been many more. The Chinese government said that all of these clusters were caused by a common host animal within the families vicinity. Most of the bloggers here think there is evidence of H2H
My rough cluster count was at around twelve, but you can be well assured there would be many more unreported cases. Interesting to note: There were reports of strong arm tactics on medical staff at some of the hospitals to not speak to the media. As recent as yesterday they were arresting people for blogging about H7N9 saying they were spreading vicious rumors. i don't know much about these stories as there is little information around them. Seems like a coverup The Chinese government are playing this one very close to their chest. I don't know if they are afraid of loss of tourism or trade... Maybe?? There was at one stage early on when a very high level military official blamed the USA for launching H7N9 as a bioweapon. Who knows Either way we now know H7N9 is a problem and we need to keep our eyes peeled |
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