Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
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Sooo....do you also have dreams of repopulating the earth? Im sure your little band of freeloaders are sure going to try, rather the recipients are willing or not.
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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I agree. It will be important to dig-in for quite awhile. It could possibly even mean an entire lifestyle change for a few years. If H5N1 becomes the dominant flu strain as h3n2 is now, we might be facing different h5n1 strains for the next several years to come. Severe and deadly flu seasons could almost become a way of life for the next decade. We would all get through it, but times could get a little challenging if h5n1 ever makes the jump.
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johngardner1
Valued Member Joined: August 20 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 678 |
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I prefer to call myself a survivalist, not a freeloader. You'll be going straight to the store Bojingles, just like the rest of you because you'll >have< to. You need food in order to survive.
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I am not a prophet
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Johnray1
Valued Member Joined: April 23 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 8159 |
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coyote
Admin Group Joined: April 25 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 8395 |
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If it is true, John wont have a " chance in hell!", whether he's a thug or not!
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Long time lurker since day one to Member.
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johngardner1
Valued Member Joined: August 20 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 678 |
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In order to be a thug, I'd have to steal from living people and hurt them. I only plan to survive.
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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John - I still think your barking up the wrong tree. I have food stocks laid in because I don't intend running the gauntlet of law enforcement and a starving, frightened population out on the streets. The last thing I'll be doing is picking stores clean because I plan on having everything I need long before it hits. That's what the non preppers will be doing because they're not listening to us now. Raiding gas station cash registers and moving food into store freezers is not how to survive this. Buying food and finding a clean source of water, and making sure you have light, heat and the ability to cook - that's what will keep you alive. It won't be like The Stand - it will be a very difficult time that with proper planning and forethought will be survivable though. If you have more medical supplies than food, you're prepping wrong. Rethink your preps while you can John, please.
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Jacksdad is correct Johngardner1, prep instead of trying to steal from the dead.
Places where you think people are dead may not be dead and kill you. I know I would kill you if you thought my business was deserted and I was there protecting my merchandise or even living on that merchandise. The other problem you may have is that the military or local police may get you. Prep and concentrate on food and water. You will be able to survive better if you do this than your idea. Take it from an old lady who was raised by an even older smarter southern hard as nails mother who said, "People will take food out of your childrens mouths to put into their childrens mouths." Don't chance running into people like us who will shoot first and not bother to ask any questions. |
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johngardner1
Valued Member Joined: August 20 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 678 |
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There won't be any clean water. Besides, if every one is mostly dead, I see nothing wrong with going to the stores. I'm not a thug, I'm a realist, I know my humble preps are going to go quick and if electricity cuts off I'm eating out of uncooked cans of food. I don't care if you have 5 years of preps, you will eventually be doing what I'm preparing for now. So don't worry about it. I plan to join a group anyway so the point is moot and only one possible survival strategy. Besides, you'd only protect your busines stock if you were still alive.
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johngardner1
Valued Member Joined: August 20 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 678 |
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Putting me in the position of being the bad person isn't realistic. I plan to hurt no one. If you live, go ahead and eat off your business, but if it's a truly abandoned restuarant I see nothing wrong with taking what I need. You will eventually run out of food, that's a fact, and if having your preps 'by then' if I read your comment correctly, if the bf hits out of the blue you're screwed. I have preps too, but I'm aware I can't afford to stockpile food that will go bad by the time I eat it. So I think my strategy is a bit more realistic than high-falutin ethics about survival in a wasteland of dead rotting corpses. And gov't and looting doesn't exist when 99% are dead and you have entire sections of the city to yourself.
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sassy pants
Valued Member Joined: March 10 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 49 |
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Hard to argue with your logic John,I'm expecting my "money maker" will be pricless if it goes as you predict
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johngardner1
Valued Member Joined: August 20 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 678 |
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Also, "Oh, I have preps," doesn't mean you'll succeed. That's why I suggested the survival group anyway, so that in numbers we would survive. I have a lot to offer a survival group. I'm just a survivalist, not a gang member like in Mad Max. I don't have a mohawk nor am I body pierced. I'm sorry, but I don't agree with your ethics.
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sassy pants
Valued Member Joined: March 10 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 49 |
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[QUOTE=johngardner1] nor am I body pierced.
Too bad!! Sandra |
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johngardner1
Valued Member Joined: August 20 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 678 |
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Maybe what you should be looking for is a more sane approach to the situation. You will end up without food. If we don't go to a place like Westport for the fish meat we will eventually find all the food that's left spoiled. Hiding out with your families should just be the first step, the next step is to find survivors, or how are your children going to survive in the long run? You may be prepping well but you're not >preparing< well. You have to be willing to question your ethics at this point in time, before they become a luxury and one you can't afford.
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I am not a prophet
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I think we should take a step back and look at this post. Apparently johngardner1 is envisioning 'The Stand" scenario. That is totally absurd to believe that 90% or more of the populace is going to die off. No time in recorded history has mortality rates been like that for a world epidemic. This scenario is for fantasy books and movies as it will never become reality. My advice to johgardner1 is to prepare for at the most a 10% world die off.
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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John, my basic problem here is how we view the world during and after a pandemic. You see a wasteland of rotting corpses. I see society being knocked back a century or two for a while - maybe even a couple of years - then bouncing back. I just don't invisage the high mortality rate you seem to. "I am legend" was a good movie, but I don't in my wildest dreams see that kind of CFR. Society gets its butt kicked once a century by a major pandemic, and it always survives. The vast (emphasis on vast) majority will survive, but how well will depend on their preparations beforehand. I already have most of what I need, and I'll get the rest when I feel it's time. I don't agree with the theory that governments can and will hide it. To hide something of that magnitude is beyond any government, and the bread and butter of conspiracy sites. We'll have warning, and I think most of us here will have a head start, if only by days, on the rest of the population. That's all I'll need.
No clean water? Of course there'll be no clean water. That's why it's ABSOLUTELY essential that you figure out how you're going to purify what you can get your hands on. Filters, solar stills, bleach, whatever - take your pick. Just make sure you know what you're going to do before it's too late.
I don't know where you're getting five years from - that's unrealistic and I don't believe has any basis in fact. Food will be available sporadically for the duration of a pandemic - you just have to make sure you have enough of a reserve to get you through the lean times, and periods of isolation (if you decide to SIP) when pandemic waves are peaking in your part of the world. Preps are sound and logical ways to get through a pandemic - you're the only person I've ever come across that doesn't see that. Anybody that doesn't prep is in for a very rude awakening, but at least you'll be in the majority. Personally, I like the idea that I'll apparently be one of the few who heeded the signs and got ready when it was still possible.
You keep talking about food running out and spoiling. Preps done properly are not that expensive and don't take up as much space as you'd think. Do some research on storing foods and you'll find literature that suggests some dried preps can last up tp 20 years. That's a hell of a long time. Fail to prep at your peril. That kind of cavalier attitude will come back and bite you where you won't like it.
My child will survive because Dad won't be out risking his life looting stores. There'll be curfews, other looters and law enforcement/military who'll be less than charitable if they find you on someones elses property. That's hardly the sane approach I'm looking for. And it's not an "ethics" thing. It's a "not getting shot scrounging for morsels that you could have bought beforehand" thing. Sorry John - I think you going to be in a whole lot of trouble if this hits us hard. You won't be ready.
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johngardner1
Valued Member Joined: August 20 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 678 |
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If a fairly large population did survive I would obviously not loot, that's suicide. I've stated before the possibility of large populations surviving, say 10 percent, and have even talked about the unlikelihood of pandemic armageddon. My scenario is not necessarily what I believe in, or my pet theory, but rather one of many scenarios we should go over in order to be prepared. But by not thinking of many alternatives, you yourself have locked yourself into just one scenario and if a different scenario than the one you planned for happens, you'll be out in the cold.
Also, I've tried to get a survival group going but everyone here thinks they'll make it on their own. And I did not say prepping wasn't important, we all know the importance of prepping, merely that five years of food will be consumed in five years and then you need to go out to forage, and that means looting what's left of the stores. If a population did survive, we forage for the community anyway. That's one of the reasons Westport is so important, it offers huge amounts of food in the form of fish meat. Plus it's far off the beaten path from the larger cities like Olympia and Seattle. We could remain there for the rest of our lives, make homes and families, all good things. Sometimes I feel people here are locking themselves into the fantasy of surviving the human race, just like in the books and movies, and think they have all the answers. If the world is gone, the stores are for you. If a group survives, we rebuild the economy and share in the resources of the stores. I'm not a bad person, I'll join a group instantly, not try to survive on my own and make my contribution.
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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10%? I would hardly call that a large population surviving. It's greater even than the Black Death - that only claimed a third of the population of Europe. To me it's an absurdly large number, and I don't feel it serves any purpose to talk about that kind of disaster here. It simply won't happen. And I still dispute the need for five years of preps - I think we're in danger of scaring away new preppers if we throw numbers like that into the mix.
I don't think you're a bad person, John. Quite the opposite. It just worries me that you'll end up no better prepared than the people who think this is all a joke akin to Y2K. You'll lose the time you've been given and it'll be too late when you realise that the empty cities, towns and fishing villages you seem to expect, with stores packed with food for the taking, are in fact still populated by a large and very hungry population, all looking for food in exactly the same places as you, with little or no success.
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Jacksdad, you are correct even if we have a 20% to 50% death rate, life will get back in order in six months to one year. During that time we will have food, water and electricity on a sporatic basis.
Some people I believe are looking for a survival group because it is easier for someone else to have the food and water and they will add what ever they can. Everyone must prep for at least 3 to 6 months and go on a diet so that the preps really last 5 to 9 months. We all eat too much anyway. |
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johngardner1
Valued Member Joined: August 20 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 678 |
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Everyone here has the right to air their opinion. Listen or not, it's up to you.
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I am not a prophet
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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I am listening, John. I'm just not sure I see things the way you do. And I'm certainly not trying to pick a fight - I'm trying to help. I think your expectations of a pandemic - and consequently your plans to deal with it - are way off the mark. And dangerously so. To my way of thinking, only 10% of the population surviving IS a pandemic armageddon.
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LaRo
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A 20 to 50% death rate, how are you getting your estimate? The birds (chickens) have a 100% death rate, At the start of this problem, we were having a 50% death rate in humans, it has consistently risen, we are now at 90% for those who get bird flu. This is with faster treatment and more of it. The 1918 flu was around 2% or so death rate, we don't have any way of determining what the death rate will be at this time. But based on what we're presently seeing and the treatment available, a much higher death rate is called for. First of all with the 90% death rate humans are experiencing, that is with respirators, tamiful, and 24 hour medical care and treatment. What happens when you have none of this assistance and the only medication is tylenol and you have to treat yourself.
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r we there yet?
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johngardner1
Valued Member Joined: August 20 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 678 |
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I'll admit that when I think of pandemic I think of total annihilation, but I agree that your scenario is possible but not the only possibility. I think we need to cover things like maybe four or five days of isolation before the wave is over. Also, I'm hoping that at least some people will form a survival group here, we have medical personnel and everything here. It's the perfect opportunity to survive more easily.
Westport for newer readers is a small fishing town on the western side of Washington State's penninsula. We went on a fishing trip there once. Even with poles people were raking in the meat. If we use nets we could feed dozens or even hundreds of people. Since so many people know how to can food here there are all sorts of options.
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LaRo I am pulling stats out of my hat. Unless we go through this no one knows how many will die. Each of us has to make a guess so we feel comfortable with what preps we have made.
We can guess a death rate of anything from the 2% that happened in 1918 to 99% that some people fear. No matter what the death rate we have to prepare for what we think is best for our families. Fear of what is to come is not helpful like my mama says,"Do the best you can." |
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Johnray1
Valued Member Joined: April 23 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 8159 |
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Could it have been a global flood?
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Suzi
Admin Group Joined: September 02 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 2769 |
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If I lived in a large city and had no connections I would make my move now. I would use one of my days off from work to take a bus trip along the coast. I would apply for a job at all the places that could employ me. I would get a job at the new, better location and move there. I would keep my mouth shut for awhile and get to know the people. Maybe I would find people who are prepping or maybe I could give some good people the warning they need to start prepping. The smaller the town the better. I would not draw attention to myself. When people asked me why I left the city I would say something like crime. If fishing is key to survival I would get a part time job doing something in that area. I would build the connections necessary to learn what I need to know to survive later in the new place. If I did not have room to stockpile a lot of food I would vacume seal (dry) food, wrap it in a plastic bag, put it is a bucket with a rubber gasket, wrap the bucket in plastic and bury these in the woods all around the outskirts of my new location. I would be careful to be able to identify the locations of the buckets. How much does a GPS thingey cost? Or maybe just left of the third tree. I would have a plan B and C. Somebody might kill me but I would not starve and I would not die of the flu.
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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A GPS is cheap and would be a great way to find buried preps. I bought one on clearance at Target for $37 a while ago which will find a spot to within a foot which would work great. Nice idea
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johngardner1
Valued Member Joined: August 20 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 678 |
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suzi, what you propose ( burying the goods) is called a "cache," sounds like cash when you say it vocally. I don't know if you do (i dont) but laundry buckets do exist and are quite large. Or you can get a few cheap coleman coolers, like the kind you take camping, lock it up and bury your goods.
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BillB
Valued Member Joined: March 22 2008 Location: Alabama Status: Offline Points: 2 |
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" We need to know where each other lives and form a mutual rendezvous point to form a
survival group. I have mentioned a town on the Washington State penninsula called
Westport, it's a fishing town and there are lots of boats..."
How would the locals like having a bunch of survivalists relocating to their area ?
They may not take too kindly to it.
There are lots of survival sites out there. Some guys are looking for workers to live
on their farm providing they help with the work. I looked into it. One guy in TN
will accept workers on his farm who bring some of their own preps.
It doesn't look like many in this forum are keen to the idea. It is a major move.
I won't post the link as it may not be allowed. Look around.
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sassy pants
Valued Member Joined: March 10 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 49 |
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[QUOTE=BillB]" We need to know where each other lives and form a mutual rendezvous point to form a
survival group. I have mentioned a town on the Washington State penninsula called
Westport, it's a fishing town and there are lots of boats..."
Sounds like oll John had a misfire, BUSTED!!!!
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johngardner1
Valued Member Joined: August 20 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 678 |
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Westport is on the migratory route of birds flying south for the winter from Siberia, just like Seattle. If the situation is bad enough (we've gone thru this discussion, so lets not) then survivors will be few. They may even be glad to have us there. Otherwise if there are those kind of survivors we might as well stay where we are unless food becomes an issue. If westport is not an option, and if seattle is vacant for the most part, you can all move here. I know the location of a lot of stores. We're a port city too, we have boats up the yingyan in certain areas, in acouple of years the fish population will be up and we'll have meat. Plus it's temperate, mostly rains here, which is why we have the only cold rainforest in the northern hemisphere. The city is designed to feed a population of over half a million, there are dozens of smaller districts nearby and small towns are everywhere in the state. We could all survive here. |
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johngardner1
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Plus there are farms, including apple farms and vinyards all over the place, that means fruit.
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Ro2935
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Or there is always Buckingham Palace, plenty of rooms, bomb shelter and hospital facility, croquet lawns and a tennis court with the added bonus of a perimeter wall please remember there will be a dress code for afternoon tea and dinner..
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BillB
Valued Member Joined: March 22 2008 Location: Alabama Status: Offline Points: 2 |
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" Plus there are farms, including apple farms and vinyards all over the place, that means fruit. "
A real Garden of Eden. Sorry to have to stick a fork in your rice but you are romanticizing
a disaster on Hollywood's scale.
For a glimpse into what survival after a massive holocaust like a devastating BFP
might really look like go here, these folks have dropped out and are living it now:
That is the farm in Tennesee I mentioned earlier. They are survivalists living off the
land.
Here is another that looks more comforting:
Both are taking applications for membership.
I hope the worst does not happen, but if it does it will be ugly.
I have been researching communes and communities like these for about a year now.
I have also been prepping all that time. I hope it never happens.
Don't get me wrong, if I got a serious invite from a well intentioned established land
owner in NW Washington State I would probably go for it. But to squat unvited is
just dangerous. You should be prepping for a long home stay.
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Johnray1
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johngardner1
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I can understand you don't want to travel all the way to the west coast, so let's just say that washington state is a possibility and let's look for more opportunities. Got any ideas for the east coast other than the freshwater fish?
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Johnray1
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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You probably shouldn't move into the country too soon to form a survival group in the event there isn't a Panflu. Now, if we do have an h5n1 Panflu, then it might be a good idea to work with people in your area. I have a few friends suggesting to me that we should all head up to the mountains for 6 months if it hits. I think the point that I would consider more drastic planning (moving) would be if we started to see rolling blackouts (power outages). If we lose the infrastructure such as power and water, we would probably have to go to plan B. Some experts have suggested that if the economy was to completely shut down for any extended period of time, there is no guarantee in restarting it. Fun stuff.
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Johnray1
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Albert
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Who said anything about raiding stores, lol?
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Albert
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Now that I think about it, we could actually have John do all the raiding for the group.
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I don't know about you guys. Think about how much stuff you will have to move to make it somewhere else.
I don't have a trailer to move that much stuff and I would not want to chance leaving my home for fear of getting the flu on the road to where?? And oh yes let's not forget the bad guys and that the military/police just might take all your guns and ammo from your car/truck if you come up on them on the road. Get your preps together, stay at home, and when it is over figure out with who is left how to deal with the situation whatever that may be. However, I will be buying extra seeds this spring and vacuum packing them for future use. Anyone out there know if this is how to save seeds? |
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Johnray1
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johngardner1
Valued Member Joined: August 20 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 678 |
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Fred Meyers carries seeds. We need to potato farm however, I can dice potatos into disks for instance, creating a type of home french fries. All you have to is bury your potatos from the store (we need to do it within 2 weeks of panflu however or the taters will be rotten.)
Plan B should be a rendezvous. We need to think of an area that can support us. The freshwater fish sounds good but the ocean will give us more. We need an area that has enough rain for crops, but with few storms. Washington is perfect for us.
Remember, if the power goes out, don't run your generator inside, you'll die from the carbon monoxide.
Albert, with a couple people to help me push grocery carts, I would be more than happy to go forage. I call this "Roving," meaning I am a rover and I get supplies for our group. I know what to look for in terms of medical supplies too.
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