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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Double talk- time to get Avian results

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    Posted: July 14 2006 at 5:48pm
Originally posted by aurora aurora wrote:

They say that we have low path avian influenza in open markets fairly often - sometimes in commercial flocks too.

Supposedly they don't know which virus was in the market yet. I find it hard to believe that they can't get a rapid test to find out what strain it is though.



According to several virologists and pathologists I have talked to on the phone there are tests available that can be done in 2-4 hours. I posted a specific DNA method used by both CDC and WHO which can read the sequence of a viral gene by a method called TAQING in a minimum of 24 hours. These two sources also told me that instead of being the "gold standard of verification" attempting to culture the virus and re-infect other animals was often very difficult and and could often result in no results at all from a specimen which could simply be tested seriologically.  This specimen ball fumblng resulting in no positive results - is a way to provide no data to the public.

The following two links are very "med geek techie." You may wish to skip to the third link which is an easier read.

http://www.fermentas.com/techinfo/pcr/dnaamplprotocol.htm


The strategy for initial laboratory testing of each specimen should be to diagnose influenza A virus infection rapidly and exclude other common viral respiratory infections. Results should be available with 24 hours.

http://www.wpro.who.int/NR/rdonlyres/1FC64B24-FEB2-4D88-9335-701A4DB1F801/0/labtest_to_identify_influenza_AH5_virus_in_specimens_from_Patients_with_an_influenza_like_illness.pdf

That is 24 hours. Not two weeks.  Isn't this a basically step by step description of how to test and verifiy the presence of Avian? Many of these methods are not new.

The following  test as per data can identify and test for "all forms" of Avian in 4 hours.

http://www.seig-pr.com/pressrelease/gbpavianfludetection.pdf


Quote - name withheld per request of scientist

"Both CDC and WHO currently use highly efficient and rapid testing methods developed by our firm which are more reliable and offer cutting edge technology. "

USDA 4-7 hour testing

These results can be expected within 4-7 hours after receipt by NVSL.

http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/!ut/p/_s.7_0_A/7_0_1OB?contentidonly=true&contentid=2006/06/0223.xml

Comment : There is no desire here to infer any sort of coverup or conspiracy. The gist of this is that

a) extremely fast tests are available for both human and avian which although not "gold standard" can map a gene, comparative with high path avian, and identify the strain.

b) It is highly suspect when such a great number of  preliminary results which are positive suddenly are found to be false when turned over to an official organization to be verified.  This has happened in many of the major alledged cases of Avian.

Why am I hearing one story from scientists and geneticists who can read and sequence genes and identify high path Avian and another in formal information releases?

Honest question. What is the truth?



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pugmom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 14 2006 at 6:12pm
MedClinician--also, in the news are many reports of negative findings after they have taken BLOOD samples.  Isn't it true blood antibody testing can only be done about 21 days into the infection?  One needs nasopharyngeal samples early on, right?  The person is Thailand was judged negative base on a blood sample, and it was early after onset.  This kind of ambiguity drives me nuts!
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Originally posted by pugmom pugmom wrote:

MedClinician--also, in the news are many reports of negative findings after they have taken BLOOD samples.  Isn't it true blood antibody testing can only be done about 21 days into the infection?  One needs nasopharyngeal samples early on, right?  The person is Thailand was judged negative base on a blood sample, and it was early after onset.  This kind of ambiguity drives me nuts!


Commercial rapid antigen tests are less sensitive in detecting influenza A (H5N1) infections than are RT-PCR assays.15 In Thailand, the results of rapid antigen testing were positive in only 4 of 11 patients with culture-positive influenza A (H5N1) (36 percent) 4 to 18 days after the onset of illness.

http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/353/13/1374

The Point :  If you do a quickie blood test on an infected person who has not had the the time to create the antigens - you are going to get a false negative.

You could compare this to an early on test of an AIDS patient who is infected but it is too soon to test.

Main Point :  As is self-evident, the setup of of a fast efficient triage of patients is crucial to handling outbreaks and is equal in importance to preparation of vaccines or anti-viral synthesis.

Notice that the 4 hour test can be modified in a matter of days to screen for an Avian mutated virus.
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"Isn't it true blood antibody testing can only be done about 21 days into the infection?  One needs nasopharyngeal samples early on, right?"

And am I remembering correctly that if you wait too long it won't show up in a nasopharyngeal sample but only in a blood test?

So if you do blood work too early on or nasopharyngeal samples too late in the infection, you can have a patient who is infected but have only negative tests?
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The other stupid testing comment I discovered somewhere today was a USDA official who said that they have never found avian influenza in smuggled meat.

Of course not! They haven't been testing it!


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jhetta Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 14 2006 at 7:38pm
I think it is pretty clear the USDA does not want to find H5N1 in the US... they are alreay having trouble with exports to Russia...
 
Just what do you think would happen to Tyson Foods and friends... if the Federal USDA Officials... allowed H5N1 to be found in the US.
 
 
We can not even get them to state what type of low path they are finding... if indeed it is low path!
 
Notice... they have not been putting many new seqences in the bank lately.... it is bad for business with H5N1 looming.

Here are a few that have been sequenced... in the US, Mexico and I included just a few for Canada...note only those that have been sequenced are included.

Note they are culling for H5 and H7 even if they are low path because they can become high path!

Strain Year Serotype
A/Mallard/Wisconsin/169/75 1975 H5 
A/Mallard/Wisconsin/944/82 1982 H5 
A/Mallard/Ohio/86 1986 H5 
A/Mallard/Ohio/556/87 1987 H5 
A/Emu/Texas/39924/93 1993 H5 
A/Chicken/Hidalgo/26654-1368/94 1994 H5 
A/Chicken/Mexico/31381-1/94 1994 H5 
A/Chicken/Mexico/31381-7/94 1994 H5 
A/Chicken/Queretaro/14588-19/95 1995 H5 
A/Mallard/Wisconsin/428/75 1975 H5N1 
A/Gull/Pennsylvania/4175/83 1983 H5N1 
A/turkey/Colorado/72 1972 H5N2 
A/mallard duck/Alberta/57/1976 1976 H5N2 
A/duck/Hong Kong/342/78 1978 H5N2 
A/duck/Michigan/80 1980 H5N2 
A/mallard duck/Alberta/645/1980 1980 H5N2 
A/mallard duck/Alberta/645/1980 1980 H5N2 
A/mallard/Alberta/645/80 1980 H5N2 
A/mallard/MI/18/80 1980 H5N2 
A/mallard/MN/25/80 1980 H5N2 
A/duck/MN/1516/1981 1981 H5N2 
A/duck/MN/1564/81 1981 H5N2 
A/Turkey/Minnesota/3689-1551/81 1981 H5N2 
A/turkey/TX/14082/81 1981 H5N2 
A/mallard/NY/189/82 1982 H5N2 
A/turkey/MN/1704/82 1982 H5N2 
A/Chicken/Pennsylvania/1/83 1983 H5N2 
A/chicken/Pennsylvania/8125/83 1983 H5N2 
A/Turkey/Virginia/6962/83 1983 H5N2 
A/Chicken/Virginia/40018/84 1984 H5N2 
A/Chicken/Washington/13413/84 1984 H5N2 
A/duck/Pennsylvania/84 1984 H5N2 
A/Mallard Duck/Pensylvania/10218/84 1984 H5N2 
A/Turkey/Virginia/40018/84 1984 H5N2 
A/Chicken/Florida/27716-2/86 1986 H5N2 
A/Chicken/Massachusetts/11801/86 1986 H5N2 
A/Chicken/New Jersey/12508/86 1986 H5N2 
A/Chicken/Ohio/22911-10/86 1986 H5N2 
A/Chicken/Pennsylvania/10210/86 1986 H5N2 
A/Quail/Oregon/20719/86 1986 H5N2 
A/Chicken/New York/12004-3/87 1987 H5N2 
A/Chicken/Florida/22780-2/88 1988 H5N2 
A/Mallard/Ohio/345/88 1988 H5N2 
A/Chicken/Florida/2507/89 1989 H5N2 
A/ruddy turnstone/Delaware/244/91 1991 H5N2 
A/Chicken/Pennsylvania/13609/93 1993 H5N2 
A/Emu/Texas/39442/93 (HP progeny) 1993 H5N2 
A/Emu/Texas/39442/93 (non-HP parent) 1993 H5N2 
A/Emu/Texas/39924/93 1993 H5N2 
A/chicken/Hidalgo/232/94 1994 H5N2 
A/Chicken/Hidalgo/26654-1368/94 1994 H5N2 
A/chicken/Hidalgo/28159-232/1994 1994 H5N2 
A/Chicken/Jalisco/14585-660/94 1994 H5N2 
A/Chicken/Mexico/26654-1374/94 1994 H5N2 
A/Chicken/Mexico/31381-2/94 1994 H5N2 
A/Chicken/Mexico/31382-1/94 1994 H5N2 
A/Chicken/Puebla/14585-622/94 1994 H5N2 
A/Chicken/Puebla/14586-654/94 1994 H5N2 
A/chicken/Puebla/8623-607/94 1994 H5N2 
A/Chicken/Puebla/8623-607/94 1994 H5N2 
A/Chicken/Puebla/8624-604/94 1994 H5N2 
A/Chicken/Queretaro/14588-19/94 1994 H5N2 
A/Chicken/Queretaro/26654-1373/94 1994 H5N2 
A/chicken/Guanajuato/28159-331/95 1995 H5N2 
A/chicken/Hidalgo/28159-460/95 1995 H5N2 
A/chicken/Jalisco/28159-600/95 1995 H5N2 
A/chicken/Mexico/28159-541/95 1995 H5N2 
A/chicken/Morelos/28159-538/95 1995 H5N2 
A/chicken/Puebla/28159-474/95 1995 H5N2 
A/chicken/Queretaro/14588-19/95 1995 H5N2 
A/Chicken/Queretaro/7653-20/95 1995 H5N2 
A/Chicken/Queretaro/7653-20/95 1995 H5N2 
A/chicken/VeraCruz/28159-398/95 1995 H5N2 
A/Turkey/Minnesota/10734/95 1995 H5N2 
A/chicken/Mexico/37821-771/96 1996 H5N2 
A/chicken/Chiapas/15224/97 1997 H5N2 
A/chicken/Chiapas/15405/97 1997 H5N2 
A/chicken/Chiapas/15406/97 1997 H5N2 
A/chicken/Chis/15224/1997 1997 H5N2 
A/chicken/Mexico/15407/97 1997 H5N2 
A/Chicken/Mexico/26654-1374/97 1997 H5N2 
A/chukkar/MN/14591-7/98 1998 H5N2 
A/chukkar/MN/14951-7/98 1998 H5N2 
A/mallard/MN/133/98 1998 H5N2 
A/pheasant/NJ/1355/98 1998 H5N2 
A/avian/NY/31588-3/00 2000 H5N2 
A/avian/NY/53726/00 2000 H5N2 
A/chukkar/NY/51375/00 2000 H5N2 
A/duck/NY/44018-2/00 2000 H5N2 
A/duck/NJ/117228-7/01 2001 H5N2 
A/mallard/AR/1C/2001 2001 H5N2 
A/duck/ME/151895-7A/02 2002 H5N2 
A/duck/NY/185502/02 2002 H5N2 
A/duck/NY/186875/02 2002 H5N2 
A/duck/NY/191255-79/02 2002 H5N2 
A/turkey/CA/D0208651-C/02 2002 H5N2 
A/turkey/CA/D0208652-C/02 2002 H5N2 
A/chicken/TX/298313/04 2004 H5N2 
A/parrot/CA/6032/04 2004 H5N2 
A/Mallard/Wisconsin/169/75 1975 H5N3 
A/Mallard/Wisconsin/169/75 1975 H5N3 
A/goose/Hong Kong/23/1978 1978 H5N3 
A/turkey/CA/6878/79 1979 H5N3 
A/herring gull/New Jersey/402/1989 1989 H5N3 
A/herring gull/New Jersey/406/1989 1989 H5N3 
A/ruddy turnstone/NJ/2242/00 2000 H5N3 
A/chicken/TX/167280-4/02 2002 H5N3 
A/gull/Delaware/4/2000 2000 H5N4 
A/gull/Delaware/5/2000 2000 H5N4 
A/shorebird/Delaware/109/2000 2000 H5N4 
A/shorebird/Delaware/230/2000 2000 H5N4 
A/shorebird/Delaware/243/2000 2000 H5N4 
A/Mallard/Wisconsin/34/75 1975 H5N6 
A/Mallard/Wisconsin/34/75 1975 H5N6 
A/duck/Potsdam/2216-4/1984 1984 H5N6 
A/shorebird/Delaware/101/2004 2004 H5N7 
A/shorebird/Delaware/75/2004 2004 H5N7 
A/herring gull/Delaware/281/98 1998 H5N8 
A/shorebird/Delaware/207/98 1998 H5N8 
A/shorebird/Delaware/27/98 1998 H5N8 
A/duck/NY/191255-59/02 2002 H5N8 
A/Turkey/Ontario/7732/66 1966 H5N9 
A/Turkey/Ontario/7732/66 1966 H5N9 
A/turkey/Wisconsin/68 1968 H5N9 
A/Mallard/Ohio/556/1987 1987 H5N9 
A/Turkey/Oregon/71 1971 H7 
A/magpie-robin/China/28710/93 1993 H7 
A/chicken/Jalisco/1994 1994 H7 
A/chicken/New York/1995 1995 H7 
A/duck/Mongolia/736/02-duck/Hokkaido/49/98 1998 H7 
A/rhea/North Carolina/39482/93 1993 H7N1 
A/Shorebird/Delaware/39/95 1995 H7N1 
A/gull/Delaware/2838/87 1987 H7N2 
A/laughing gull/Delaware/2838/87 1987 H7N2 
A/gull/Italy/692-2/93 1993 H7N2 
A/Chicken/New York/13142-5/94 1994 H7N2 
A/Chicken/New York/4447-7/94 1994 H7N2 
A/Chicken/NY/13142-5/94 1994 H7N2 
A/Chicken/NY/4447-7/94 1994 H7N2 
A/Turkey/New York/4450-5/94 1994 H7N2 
A/Chicken/New York/13833-7/95 1995 H7N2 
A/Chicken/New York/13833-7/95 1995 H7N2 
A/Chicken/New York/13833-7/95 1995 H7N2 
A/Chicken/New York/19542-5/95 1995 H7N2 
A/Chicken/New York/3112-1/95 1995 H7N2 
A/Chicken/NY/19542/95 1995 H7N2 
A/Chicken/NY/3112-1/95 1995 H7N2 
A/Chicken/Rhode Island/4328/95 1995 H7N2 
A/Guinea Fowl/New York/13820-3/95 1995 H7N2 
A/Chicken/New York/3202-7/96 1996 H7N2 
A/Chicken/New York/8030-2/96 1996 H7N2 
A/Chicken/NY/13202-7/96 1996 H7N2 
A/Guinea Fowl/Pennsylvania/7777-1/96 1996 H7N2 
A/Chicken/New York/6777-3/97 1997 H7N2 
A/Chicken/NY/6777-3/97 1997 H7N2 
A/Chicken/PA/9701027/97 1997 H7N2 
A/Chicken/PA/9701027B/97 1997 H7N2 
A/Chicken/PA/9701524/97 1997 H7N2 
A/Chicken/PA/9701530/97 1997 H7N2 
A/Chicken/Pennsylvania/11767-1/97 1997 H7N2 
A/Chicken/Pennsylvania/11767-1/97 1997 H7N2 
A/Chicken/Pennsylvania/11767-1/97 1997 H7N2 
A/GuineaFowl/NY/13820-3/97 1997 H7N2 
A/Quail/PA/20304/97 1997 H7N2 
A/Turkey/PA/7975/97 1997 H7N2 
A/Turkey/Pennsylvania/7975/97 1997 H7N2 
A/Chicken/NJ/9777-7/98 1998 H7N2 
A/Chicken/NY/1387-8/98 1998 H7N2 
A/Chicken/NY/21665-73/98 1998 H7N2 
A/Chicken/NY/3572/98 1998 H7N2 
A/Chicken/NY/6013-19/98 1998 H7N2 
A/Chicken/NY/6031-19/98 1998 H7N2 
A/Chicken/PA/13552-1/98 1998 H7N2 
A/Chicken/PA/9801289/98 1998 H7N2 
A/Chicken/Pennsylvania/13552-1/98 1998 H7N2 
A/GiuineaFowl/NJ/13246-9/98 1998 H7N2 
A/Goose/New Jersey/8600-3/98 1998 H7N2 
A/Goose/NJ/8600-3/98 1998 H7N2 
A/GuineaFowl/NJ/13246-9/98 1998 H7N2 
A/Quail/New York/13989-51/98 1998 H7N2 
A/Quail/NY/13989/98 1998 H7N2 
A/Quail/PA/20304/98 1998 H7N2 
A/Turkey/NJ/9778-8/98 1998 H7N2 
A/Chicken/New Jersey/20621/99 1999 H7N2 
A/Chicken/New York/34173-3/99 1999 H7N2 
A/Chicken/NJ/15814-9/99 1999 H7N2 
A/Chicken/NJ/15827/99 1999 H7N2 
A/Chicken/NJ/16224-6/99 1999 H7N2 
A/Chicken/NJ/17206/99 1999 H7N2 
A/Chicken/NJ/20621/99 1999 H7N2 
A/Chicken/NY/1398-6/99 1999 H7N2 
A/Chicken/NY/14714-2/99 1999 H7N2 
A/Chicken/NY/14858-12/99 1999 H7N2 
A/Chicken/NY/21586-8/99 1999 H7N2 
A/Chicken/NY/22409-4/99 1999 H7N2 
A/Chicken/NY/34173-3/99 1999 H7N2 
A/Quail/NY/11430/99 1999 H7N2 
A/ruddy turnstone/Delaware/130/99 1999 H7N2 
A/Avian/NY/70411-12/00 2000 H7N2 
A/Avian/NY/73063-6/00 2000 H7N2 
A/Avian/NY/74211-2/00 2000 H7N2 
A/Avian/NY/76247-3/00 2000 H7N2 
A/Avian/NY/7729-6/00 2000 H7N2 
A/Avian/NY/81746-5/00 2000 H7N2 
A/Chicken/New Jersey/30739-6/00 2000 H7N2 
A/Chicken/NJ/30739-6/00 2000 H7N2 
A/Chicken/NY/30749-3/00 2000 H7N2 
A/pheasant/NJ/30739-9/2000 2000 H7N2 
A/Avian/NY/118353-1/01 2001 H7N2 
A/Chicken/FL/90348-4/01 2001 H7N2 
A/Chicken/NJ/118555-2/01 2001 H7N2 
A/Chicken/NY/119055-7/01 2001 H7N2 
A/Chicken/PA/143586/01 2001 H7N2 
A/unknown/NY/74211-5/2001 2001 H7N2 
A/Chicken/NJ/150383-7/02 2002 H7N2 
A/Chicken/NJ/151244-18/02 2002 H7N2 
A/Chicken/NJ/608/02 2002 H7N2 
A/chicken/PA/143586/2002 2002 H7N2 
A/Chicken/PA/149092-1/02 2002 H7N2 
A/Chicken/VA/32/02 2002 H7N2 
A/GuineaFowl/MA/148081/02 2002 H7N2 
A/Turkey/NC/11165/02 2002 H7N2 
A/Turkey/VA/158512/02 2002 H7N2 
A/Turkey/VA/67/02 2002 H7N2 
A/chicken/MD/MINH MA/03 2003 H7N2 
A/Turkey/Oregon/71 1971 H7N3
A/pheasant/MN/917/1980 1980 H7N3
A/Turkey/Oregon/71 1971 H7N3 
A/turkey/TX/1/79 1979 H7N3 
A/pheasant/MN/917/1980 1980 H7N3 
A/turkey/Minnesota/1237/80 1980 H7N3 
A/turkey/Minnesota/916/80 1980 H7N3 
A/turkey/MN/1200/80 1980 H7N3 
A/mallard/Alberta/699/81 1981 H7N3 
A/Chicken/Pennsylvania/21525/83 1983 H7N3 
A/gadwall/MD/3495/83 1983 H7N3 
A/ruddy turnstone/New Jersey/65/1985 1985 H7N3 
A/turkey/CO/13356/91 1991 H7N3 
A/Turkey/Colorado/13356/91 1991 H7N3 
A/Chicken/New Jersey/15086-3/94 1994 H7N3 
A/chicken/NJ/15086-3/94 1994 H7N3 
A/Quail/Arkansas/16309-7/94 1994 H7N3 
A/chicken/Pakistan/16/99/95 1995 H7N3 
A/chicken/Pakistan/447/95 1995 H7N3 
A/chicken/Pakistan/CR2/95 1995 H7N3 
A/chicken/Queensland/667/95 1995 H7N3 
A/Turkey/Utah/24721-10/95 1995 H7N3 
A/mallard/MN/187/98 1998 H7N3 
A/mallard/MN/190/98 1998 H7N3 
A/mallard/MN/284/98 1998 H7N3 
A/mallard/MN/88/98 1998 H7N3 
A/Chicken/New York/12273-11/99 1999 H7N3 
A/Chicken/NY/12273-11/99 1999 H7N3 
A/Chicken/NY/14714-9/99 1999 H7N3 
A/pintail/MN/423/99 1999 H7N3 
A/laughing gull/NY/2455/00 2000 H7N3 
A/blue-winged teal/TX/2/01 2001 H7N3 
A/Duck/NJ/117228-7/01 2001 H7N3 
A/Duck/PA/143585/01 2001 H7N3 
A/Duck/Nanchang/1944/93 1993 H7N4 
A/chicken/NSW/1/97 1997 H7N4 
A/blue-winged teal/TX/11/01 2001 H7N4 
A/blue-winged teal/TX/11/01 2001 H7N4 
A/ruddy turnstone/Delaware/2770/87 1987 H7N5 
A/ruddy turnstone/Delaware/2378/1988 1988 H7N7 
A/chicken/Ireland/1733/89 1989 H7N7 
A/non-psittacine/England-Q/1985/89 1989 H7N7 
A/red knot/New Jersey/325/1989 1989 H7N7 
A/RedKnot/Delaware/259/94 1994 H7N7 
A/mallard/MN/17/99 1999 H7N7 
A/ruddy turnstone/Delaware/134/99 1999 H7N7 
A/Duck/Ohio/421/87 1987 H7N8 
A/mallard/Alberta/114/1999 1999 H7N9 
A/ruddy turnstone/DE/1538/00 2000 H7N9 
A/ruddy turnstone/DE/629/00 2000 H7N9 
A/ruddy turnstone/DE/629/00 2000 H7N9 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jhetta Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 14 2006 at 7:44pm
Animal Disease Concerns Cloud Market and Price Outlook in 2006
http://www.aphca.org/news/file/OutLook2006.html
 
Meanwhile, market uncertainty in the Russian Federation, the world’s largest poultry importer, as US poultry import permits were cancelled due to sanitary irregularities and later reissued is expected to lead to lower imports.
 
Deliveries to other regions, such as disease-affected countries in Africa, may actually increase. For example, in Egypt, where consumption and egg and poultry prices dropped by 30-40 percent after the first outbreaks, the recovery in consumer confidence is pushing up chicken prices fivefold to record levels.
 
Poultry are reported to be in short supply because of loss of breeding stocks and the inability of industries to respond quickly to changing demand.
 
One implication of the rapid consumption recoveries that characterize market response to AI is that countries that are heavily dependant on poultry as an income earner for rural smallholders may be forced to import frozen chicken to meet urban demand.
 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pugmom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 14 2006 at 7:45pm
Yes, Aurora, your comments on the testing of blood vs. nasopharyngeal samples is exactly how I have read it many times.  Also, if you visit the links posted by MedClinician, this is the recommendations by the CDC too.  These statements by foreign countries that people have negative blood tests, when the people are newly infected, are misleading and shows they are not even testing right. 
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Originally posted by Jhetta Jhetta wrote:

I think it is pretty clear the USDA does not want to find H5N1 in the US... they are alreay having trouble with exports to Russia...
 
Just what do you think would happen to Tyson Foods and friends... if the Federal USDA Officials... allowed H5N1 to be found in the US.
 
 
We can not even get them to state what type of low path they are finding... if indeed it is low path!
 
Notice... they have not been putting many new seqences in the bank lately.... it is bad for business with H5N1 looming.

Here are a few that have been sequenced... in the US, Mexico and I included just a few for Canada...note only those that have been sequenced are included.

Note they are culling for H5 and H7 even if they are low path because they can become high path!



Jhetta - once again a thanks for all your work on this site and the volumes of information you come up with. Since no allegations are being made here, I think we can mention companies such as Tyson which are massive meat producers and distributors.

Are they worried?

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/21/business/21poultry.html?ex=1153108800&en=b270d2b6be90177b&ei=5070

In Senate testimony earlier this month, Michael Leavitt, secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, declared that it was "just a matter of time" before birds infected with the virus found their way to the United States.

The stakes are enormous. United States poultry producers like Tyson, Pilgrim's Pride and Gold Kist sell 26 billion pounds of chicken each year. Restaurant chains — chief among them McDonald's, KFC and Wendy's — sell 45 percent of that.

Sales of chicken are growing. Over the last 10 years, consumption of chicken has increased by 22 percent, while beef consumption has remained flat, according to the Department of Agriculture.

If Europe and Asia are any indication, chicken sales could take quite a hit. In February, after avian flu was discovered in wild swans, poultry consumption declined 70 percent in Italy. In France, sales are down 30 percent since avian flu hit a turkey farm last month. In some areas of India, sales are down 40 percent since last month's discovery of avian flu in chickens.

These declines came even though none of the 175 human cases of avian flu confirmed by the World Health Organization since 2003 resulted from eating poultry.

note : How about duck's blood soup? Does this count?

Why it is possible H5N1 or low path will not be tested for or results be announced?

http://www.meatprocess.com/news/ng.asp?n=67224-tyson-beef-bse

Tyson's comment on Avian flu case found in Delaware

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/02-13-2004/0002109347&EDATE=


Double Talk :

http://www.poultryhelp.com/aitexas040220.html

Phase One : to the tune of "Don't worry be happy."  2004 Outbreak in Texas

In recent weeks, two other strains of low pathogenic AI have been detected in the United States; the H7N2 strain was found in two flocks in Delaware and four of the 35 live chicken markets in northern New Jersey.  The low-pathogenic H2N2 strain was detected in a Pennsylvania flock.  In Delaware, more than 226 farms have been tested, with no additional infection detected.

Phase 2 :  Be worried - and then in 2004

USDA CONFIRMS HIGHLY PATHOGENIC AVIAN INFLUENZA IN TEXAS

WASHINGTON, Feb. 23, 2004--The U.S. Department of Agriculture today confirmed that the H5N2 strain of avian influenza in a flock of chickens in Texas is highly pathogenic avian influenza, the first such case in the United States in 20 years.  USDA is working closely with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to forestall any human health impacts from this outbreak.  There is no evidence to date of any human health implications of this HPAI virus in Texas.

“The H5 strain can be high or low pathogenic, and the clinical signs observed at the outset of this outbreak suggested that the disease was low path avian influenza,” said Dr. Ron DeHaven, USDA’s chief veterinary officer.  “However, further testing by our National Veterinary Services laboratory in Ames, Iowa, determined that this strain is highly pathogenic avian influenza.”

Note : Humans cannot catch H5N2?

77 cases of H5N2 in Japan. Link referenced on this page is not accessable.

CORRECTION : page is now accessable although content and link to article missing or modified.   3:00 p.m. 7/16/06

http://64.233.187.104/search?q=cache:3NbiYdyEDOEJ:www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/01/11/health/main1202004.shtml+human+deaths+h5n2&hl=en&gl=us&ct=clnk&cd=10

(backup buffer data)


Dozens In Japan May Have Mild Bird Flu
Up To 77 May Have H5N2; Would Be First Human Cases Of Strain

(recovered data)

Japan is leaving no stone unturned in preventing bird flu, by killing 770,000 birds in Moriya farm, 100 km north of Tokyo, where a weaker strain of the virus, H5N2, was detected. This activity followed the announcement by health officials that the H5N2 virus may have infected around 77 people, most of whom were chicken farmers. Turkey, a country that has experienced bird flu human fatalities, has received praise from a visiting US bird flu team, for its efforts in containing the disease.


Comment : Mild strains of Bird Flu can infect people and be dangerous and if in food can infect people without even touching a bird.


A little background on H5N2


http://www.cuhk.edu.hk/health_promote_protect/influenza_english.pdf


Comments:  Low path Avian has already crossed the species barrier and infected humans. Low path Avian mixed before passing is one step closer to a highly virulent form which could spark a pandemic.


The presence of low path Avian in the U.S., in food, or in people, is  not insignificant and "just the way things are." It is a problem.



















 







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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 15 2006 at 9:17am
this cought my eye....if i read it right and did the math right......26 billion pounds of chicken is sold by those companys every year?.....thats 2817 3pound (proccesed weight) chickens every second...yes every second.....and tyson said they were testing how many every week? does any one know?........those numbers make it imposible to screen for the virus .evan at a 1.50 a pound retail i would think there is definetly some politics involved in possibly disrupting a 39 billion doller industry (im guessing at 39 billion, or is it more?)
The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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WTO Entry Agreement Expected in Weeks
http://www.sptimesrussia.com/index.php?action_id=2&story_id=18017

By Valeria Korchagina and Stephen Boykewich
Tuesday, June 27, 2006

Sources in the ministry also said the talks had been very intense, with Economic Development and Trade Minister German Gref and some of his staff regularly traveling abroad for talks with U.S. officials.

Russia appears, at least partially, to be responding without much fuss to key U.S. demands .

Signing a bilateral agreement with the United States remains the last obstacle for Russia before it can begin the formal part of joining the WTO by signing a multilateral agreement with the WTO’s 149 member countries.

Russia has been seeking to join the WTO for the last decade.

The United States has long insisted Russia strengthen protection of intellectual property rights, as well as make concessions in the agricultural and financial sectors.

Some results appear to be visible in the first sphere. The government recently adopted a new strict licensing procedure for businesses involved in publishing audio and video products. Further legal changes to the copyright laws are also due to be submitted to the State Duma soon.

“There has certainly been some progress on the IPR front,” the U.S. diplomat said.

Progress may also have been made on agriculture, where the dispute between the two sides was revived a few months ago after apparently being resolved.

In a March 29 speech to the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, Putin said the United States was “artificially pushing back the negotiating process” by submitting a list of areas for “additional negotiations.”

U.S. officials, meanwhile, said the dispute was over agriculture import rules that the United States considered unduly harsh. Over the years, a particularly sensitive issue has been the importation of chickens into Russia, which is the United States’ biggest poultry export market.

In an apparent concession, Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov recently ruled that Russian food safety officials had the option of applying international standards to agricultural imports rather than use the stricter domestic standards.

“That was something the Americans had been pressing the Russians to do for months, and they finally did it three or four weeks ago,” said Andrew Somers, the president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia.

Though it remains unclear which standards Russian inspectors will ultimately use, “the fact is it shows movement by the government” toward addressing U.S. concerns, Somers said.

Russia Says WTO Deal Reached, U.S. Disagrees
http://www.sptimesrussia.com/index.php?action_id=2&story_id=18225

By Douglas Busvine

Reuters July 13, 2006

MOSCOW — Russia said on Thursday it had achieved a breakthrough in talks with the United States on joining the World Trade Organization, but the U.S. side said no final deal had yet been reached.

Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying that Presidents George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin should sign a WTO protocol in St. Petersburg on Friday or Saturday, when the annual Group of Eight summit begins.

“I hope that a protocol will be signed before the G8, tomorrow or the day after,” Kudrin was quoted by Interfax as saying.

Kudrin said a deal had been reached on financial services, but talks were continuing on other areas. U.S. officials said no comprehensive WTO entry agreement had yet been struck.

“No deal has been reached at this point,” said one official traveling with Bush on a pre-G8 visit to Germany.

U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab has held two days of talks in Moscow in a bid to seal Russia’s decade-old bid to join the 149-nation trade club.

“We are continuing to meet and are committed to a commercially strong agreement,” Schwab’s spokesman, Sean Spicer, said in an email statement. “Both sides still have important unresolved issues.”

One source familiar with the talks said earlier that the problem areas of access to Russia’s farm produce market for U.S. exporters and its protection of intellectual property rights were still not settled.

Russia is the biggest economy outside the world trade body. An accord with the United States would eliminate one of the last remaining obstacles to Russia’s WTO membership and set a positive tone for the G8 summit.

Kudrin said the U.S. side had dropped a demand that foreign banks be allowed to open branches in Russia instead of being required as they are now to open subsidiariesan arrangement that gives Russia greater supervisory powers.

“We agreed that foreign insurance companies would be allowed to open branches, but we insisted that foreign banks will not open branches in Russia,” Kudrin said, according to RIA Novosti.

Kudrin later said that talks were continuing and progressing on other areas.

“Agriculture remains an unresolved question. On the question of intellectual property we have almost reached agreement,” he said.

“I hope that within a day or two we will succeed,” Kudrin said.

Senate Democrats urged Bush on Wednesday not to rush into a deal, questioning Russia’s reliability as a trading partner.

“Numerous actions by Russia have created significant doubts about whether the government of Russia has the political will to comply with its obligations,” Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid and 19 other Senate Democrats said in a letter to Bush.

Senior U.S. lawmakers and leading software, movie and music industry groups have urged the Bush administration not to sign a bilateral agreement until Moscow stamps out copyright piracy.

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Russian WTO entry bid talks falter
http://today.reuters.com/News/newsArticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=2006-07-15T124256Z_01_L15456009_RTRUKOC_0_US-TRADE-RUSSIA-USA.xml
 
Sat Jul 15, 2006 8:43am ET8

By Douglas Busvine

ST PETERSBURG, Russia (Reuters) - Russia and the United States failed on Saturday to strike a bilateral deal allowing Russia to join the World Trade Organization but agreed to set a deadline to wrap up talks within three months.

Negotiators who have been discussing Russia's 13-year-old WTO bid virtually non-stop since Wednesday were unable to achieve a final breakthrough on a key "deliverable" ahead of the Group of Eight summit in St Petersburg.

"There is more work to be done," President George W. Bush told journalists after meeting summit host Vladimir Putin. "The intention to achieve an agreement is there."

U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab negotiated into the early hours on Saturday with Russian Economy Minister German Gref, but the two sides ran out of time.

"It's a complex process," Putin told a joint news conference with Bush. "We will continue to talk while standing up for our interests."

The talks made breakthroughs on financial services and defense of intellectual property rights, but foundered on the relatively minor issue of safety inspections on U.S. exports of frozen beef and pork, Gref said.

"I expect this problem can be solved by the end of October and we will be able to sign a deal," Gref told reporters, adding this would enable Russia to seal entry terms by next spring.

Schwab said the two sides were drafting a "blueprint" aimed at reaching a final deal within two to three months

"We've made significant progress, in fact virtually closed the industrial tariff side, virtually closed the services side, excellent progress on intellectual property rights and very close on agricultural issues," Schwab said.

Russia is the largest country outside the 149-member trade club, and a bilateral deal with Washington would remove the last major obstacle to its accession.

The failure of the bilateral WTO talks is likely to undermine efforts by G8 leaders here to revive the stalled Doha round of global trade talks.

WTO chief Pascal Lamy was due to brief the G8 on the Doha round, which must reach agreement soon or fail, as Bush loses his power to "fast track" trade deals in mid-2007. Britain and Germany are pushing hard on the issue.

CONGRESS KEY

Rampant video and music piracy in Russia has infuriated the U.S. entertainment industry and, ahead of mid-term elections this autumn, top U.S. Democrats have lobbied against Russia's WTO bid.

"We're tough negotiators," Bush said. "The reason why is that we want the agreement we reach to be accepted by the United States Congress."

Twenty Senate Democrats published an open letter this week expressing "serious concerns" over the possibility of a Russia-U.S. WTO deal, which would require the approval of U.S. lawmakers to take full effect.

As its part of any pact, the United States would have to provide Russia the same tariff treatment all other WTO members enjoy. This would require Congress to grant Russia "permanent normal trade relations".  

Gref said the theme of intellectual property had been closed and would not be reopened, under a road map which would allow the multilateral WTO admissions procedure to run parallel to the Russia-U.S. bilateral talks.

He cautioned that Russia's WTO bid could fall prey to electoral politics if there was any further delay. Both Russia and the United States hold presidential elections in 2008.

"If we don't close the talks next spring we will fall into the election cycle. It will be our last chance," said Gref.

(Additional reporting by Darya Korsunskaya and Steve Holland)

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Guiding Principles for International Outbreak Alert and Response

The Guiding Principles for International Outbreak Alert and Response are an articulation of the consensus of partners in the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network on how to prepare for field activity, to activate international support, to coordinate response in the field, to evaluate and follow up outbreaks of international importance.

Detailed standard operating protocols support the Guiding Principles and address the broad spectrum of operational issues and the challenges of coordinated international outbreak response.

The Guiding Principles for International Outbreak Alert and Response aim to improve the delivery of international assistance in support of local efforts by partners in the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network, and seek to promote the highest standards of professional performance in the field.

:: Guiding Principles for International Outbreak Alert and Response

  • WHO ensures outbreaks of potential international importance are rapidly verified and information is quickly shared within the Network.
  • There is a rapid response coordinated by the Operational Support Team to requests for assistance from affected state(s).
  • The most appropriate experts reach the field in the least possible time to carry out coordinated and effective outbreak control activities.
  • The international team integrates and coordinates activities to support national efforts and existing public health infrastructure.
  • There is a fair and equitable process for the participation of Network partners in international responses.
  • There is strong technical leadership and coordination in the field.
  • Partners make every effort to ensure the effective coordination of their participation and support of outbreak response.
  • There is recognition of the unique role of national and international nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in the area of health, including in the control of outbreaks. NGOs providing support that would not otherwise be available, particularly in reaching poor populations. While striving for effective collaboration and coordination, the Network will respect the independence and objectivity of all partners.
  • Responses will be used as a mechanism to build global capacity by the involvement of participants from field-based training programmes in applied epidemiology and public health practice, e.g. Field Epidemiology Training Programmes (FETPs).
  • There is commitment to national and regional capacity building as a follow up to international outbreak responses to improve preparedness and reduce future vulnerability to epidemic prone diseases.
  • All Network responses will proceed with full respect for ethical standards, human rights, national and local laws, cultural sensitivities and traditions.


Just alot of pretty sounding words ...
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Originally posted by 4thegirls 4thegirls wrote:

 
Guiding Principles for International Outbreak Alert and Response

The Guiding Principles for International Outbreak Alert and Response are an articulation of the consensus of partners in the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network on how to prepare for field activity, to activate international support, to coordinate response in the field, to evaluate and follow up outbreaks of international importance.

Detailed standard operating protocols support the Guiding Principles and address the broad spectrum of operational issues and the challenges of coordinated international outbreak response.

The Guiding Principles for International Outbreak Alert and Response aim to improve the delivery of international assistance in support of local efforts by partners in the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network, and seek to promote the highest standards of professional performance in the field.

:: Guiding Principles for International Outbreak Alert and Response

  • WHO ensures outbreaks of potential international importance are rapidly verified and information is quickly shared within the Network.
  • There is a rapid response coordinated by the Operational Support Team to requests for assistance from affected state(s).
  • The most appropriate experts reach the field in the least possible time to carry out coordinated and effective outbreak control activities.
  • The international team integrates and coordinates activities to support national efforts and existing public health infrastructure.
  • There is a fair and equitable process for the participation of Network partners in international responses.
  • There is strong technical leadership and coordination in the field.
  • Partners make every effort to ensure the effective coordination of their participation and support of outbreak response.
  • There is recognition of the unique role of national and international nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in the area of health, including in the control of outbreaks. NGOs providing support that would not otherwise be available, particularly in reaching poor populations. While striving for effective collaboration and coordination, the Network will respect the independence and objectivity of all partners.
  • Responses will be used as a mechanism to build global capacity by the involvement of participants from field-based training programmes in applied epidemiology and public health practice, e.g. Field Epidemiology Training Programmes (FETPs).
  • There is commitment to national and regional capacity building as a follow up to international outbreak responses to improve preparedness and reduce future vulnerability to epidemic prone diseases.
  • All Network responses will proceed with full respect for ethical standards, human rights, national and local laws, cultural sensitivities and traditions.


Just alot of pretty sounding words ...


Reading into this, no doubt the aims, plans, and intent are noble and extremely well worded. Trying to look at this rather as a  glass half-full than half-empty, this is certainly a model to work towards.

Perhaps some useful comments on ideals versus reality would be :

1) Bioweapons can effect the national security of any nation. The effects of outbreaks, epidemics, and even pandemics, may contain information which has the capability to totally disrupt or almost destroy a countries economy as well as giving feedback to  terrorists or hostile rogue nations on specific bio agents which may prove extremely effective to use in an attack.

2) Thus you face a problem. How much information can be released globally and on the network, without at the same time creating situations in which a country may be revealed to be extremely vulnerable to certain forms of bio attack?

3) Is it necessary, in fact would it not be prudent for any nation to make an attempt to put some sort of defense up, as well as a plan to handle potentional economic and social breakdown, before releasing information?

On the surface, and in a perfect world of no politics, economics, and especially no terrorists or bioweapons, such an organization seems feasible and workable. Yet, in the real world, it can only function "to a point."

There is a fine line between free speech, free information, and free press, and release of data that may be out of context and also unsubstantiated. Data which can hurt people, lose jobs, shut down companies, even cause a stock market crash. This can be seen as an unstable Middle East and numerous concerns drive prices up. Hurting the economy and destabilizing America is a primary goal of its enemies.

How many cell agents, moles,  or sleepers are in WHO from what organizations? Would it not be reasonable to assume people who are making bioweapons could take information gathered to "help the world." and use the same information to hone a bioweapon that could destroy it.

It is painful, every time we turn from pure science and pathology and medicine, to politics. But the fight to work together against the coming Pandemic is mired in issues that are now emerging as we attempt to prepare for Avian.

So instead of pointing fingers, we can turn to the Tyson corporations of the world and say - "Help us. Now is the time to use your immense power to help control the spread of the Pandemic. If you are feeding 80 countries and the leading provider of world meat, then you must help, or you will have no one left alive, or far too few left, to buy it."






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