We Will Reap what we Sow

I must confess, I’ve been taken aback by some of the plans that I’ve read here, and on other forums, regarding what people plan to do  in a pandemic.  I understand the fear, and the overwhelming desire to protect one’s families, but I wonder how many of you have really thought about the ramifications of simply hunkering down, and trying to wait out a pandemic.

The idea of essential workers reporting to their jobs, or of people helping out in the community seems to be dismissed as too dangerous, futile, or foolhardy. I’ve been chided for even suggesting it.

Lets say everybody does that.  Everybody say’s “Let someone else do it.”

And no one does.

What happens then?

If health care workers and their support staff (kitchen workers, housekeeping, security,etc) abandon the hospitals then the hospitals will close. Those who have heart attacks, strokes, or are injured will die right along with the flu victims.  If the hospitals close, the ambulances will stop running. No point, if there is no place to take patients. Doctors offices, overwhelmed,  and cut off from supplies will close.  The health care system will collapse.

Once the public understands that all medical care in unavailable, and that not even doctors will leave their homes to tend to the sick, no one will risk going out, unless staying at home is a death sentence.  Only those desperate for food or water will leave their homes.

Firefighters and cops, knowing if they are injured that no medical help will be there, will walk off the job.  Fires will rage uncontrolled, and spread thru out towns.  Brush fires and forest fires will go unchecked.  A lot of people who thought they were safe holed up in their homes will find themselves burned out, and their shelter and supplies gone.

The streets will become lawless, filled with hungry desperate people who know there is no law to stop them.  Criminals will be released from prison, as no one will be willing to guard or feed them. Several million hungry, desperate, hardened criminals ready to slit your throat for a bag of rice.  Your wife or daughter, perhaps they will keep alive for a while. 

If your home is attacked, you neighbors will probably cross themselves and hope the looters move on before hitting them.  Of course, the looters will pick them off too, one house at a time. Resist, and they will simply burn you out.

All food and medicine transportation will halt. Trains, planes, and trucks.  The electrical grid in many places will fail. Storm damage to power lines will not be repaired.  Hopefully, workers will remain long enough at nuke plants to power them down safely.  Otherwise . . .

If you are barricaded, and the looters don’t get you, pray you don’t have a heart attack or rupture an appendix.  Or your kid doesn’t burn himself on the camp stove. Or than any of a thousand routine, everyday medical problems or injuries doesn’t befall someone in your household.

People will die unattended in their homes, and their corpses will remain there, as no one will come pick up the dead.  This will only promote additional disease. Some bodies will be dumped in rivers and streams, or in open fields.  Typhus, Cholera, and dysentery will emerge as even greater threats than the flu virus.

Rats will devour the dead, overrunning the cities. Perhaps P. Pestis will re-emerge. It is still found in the S.W. part of the United States.  If you liked the flu, you’ll love the plague. Or perhaps the Hantavirus is more to your liking.  There are a lot of viral and bacteria options.

Within weeks, everything that can be looted will be.  The infrastructure will be destroyed. The ability to re-supply cities and towns in between pandemic waves will be lost, as will the ability to distribute vaccine when it becomes available.  Of course, no one will be manufacturing vaccine, so I guess that point is moot.

The military may try to restore order, but they will be stretched too thin, and badly outnumbered. I doubt they will persist in that fool’s errand. Most will go AWOL, or succumb to the flu, violence, or famine that will come.  Supplies lines won't be viable, and when those are gone, so are the military.

Oil and gas refineries will be shut down.  Manufacturing plants, drug companies, telephone systems, power plants, Internet providers, food processing plants . . . you name it. They all shut down. Everything stops. Much is destroyed. And our ability to restart these systems will be lost. 

An 18-month pandemic could turn into a new dark age. Instead of 3 million dead in the United States, we could see 100 million. Maybe a lot more. That year’s worth of dehydrated food won’t be enough. Not even close.  And our slow recovery from it could take decades.  Maybe we never recover.

Those that say they don’t want to risk doing essential jobs because it might risk exposing their families to the virus are likely to create a legacy that proves much more dangerous to the ones they love.   Do you really believe you can survive this? This isn’t like in the movies. Good guys get shot, or sick, or injured all the time.  That assault rifle and 50,000 rounds of ammo won’t do you much good, I assure you.  If the looters don’t get you and your family, something else will.  Famine, fire, disease, cold weather, bad water. . . the list is endless.

By abdicating any sense of community responsibility. by `playing it safe’ and not risking exposure in order to keep the lights on, the food and drugs moving, and the hospitals open, we create a self fulfilling prophesy. Or rather, nightmare.

I submit that if we let this happen, we endanger far more lives than we would by fighting this virus. That by keeping society running, not on all cylinders perhaps, but running none the less, we can avoid this apocalyptic vision.  But to do that, to keep society from breaking down to the point we can’t restart it, people are going to have to take personal risks. Cops and doctors and nurses and truck drivers and power plant employees and thousands of other essential personnel are going to have to accept the risks, endure the hardships, and do their jobs if there is to be anything left when all of this is over.

But hey, if you aren’t willing to do it, why should anyone else be?

Sometimes we have to face our fears, and yes, even risk our lives, in order to maintain a viable society.  There was a time when we felt our country, our community, and our neighborhoods were worth self-sacrifice.

Is this really the kind of post-pandemic world you want for your kids?

If so, I suppose we deserve whatever happens.

By hunkering down, baring the doors, and refusing to help your neighbors and maintain our communities in a time of crisis you might spare yourself and your family. Or at least delay their demise for a few extra months. You may even get lucky, and manage to save a few humans. But we will have lost something far more important.

We will have lost humanity.

i AM NOT SURE IF i BELEIVE SOCIETY WILL FALL AS WE KNOW IT FOR ONE WE HAVE LIVED THROUGH A PANDEMIC BEFORE and the economy went on anyway.  I dont beleive the structure will collapse as the building and resourses are there .  

 AND I BELEIVE THE GOVERMENT IS DOING MORE THAN THEY SAY but then I may be dumber than I look.

In Canada during y2k there were plans and locations set up for water distributation and shelter.  These plans never fully came out for public knowledge  even now but many people knew of t he plans   

I beleive there will be food distribution centers and schools opened up for shelter and other things .  I beleive  companies will quaratine private workers to keep some of the infracture going .The idea of being quarantined and safe from the virus will probally appeal to alot of people. I beleive that alot of people will volunteer  where they can. Some jobs may disappear but other will spring up. There are more good people than bad and I cant imagine anyone wanting to become a looter 

It wont be perfect  and early days of this will be awlful and I wont tell anyone not to prepare. I beleive strongly in preparing but  Im trying to remember that the flu could take awhile to hit us it could die off one its own.  It could mutate to a less dangeous flu .   It could kill off our enemies before it ever gets to us.We could get a vacine together in time.   We could force the goverment to change drug patent rules so that medications can be copied more quickly.        

almost all the the pandemic disapeared on their own The Hong Kong flu still exists but in much smaller numbers but it still kills.

H5N1 will sweep the globe in just mere days when it makes the final jump.    We may not have to worry about looters.  There may not be any of them around by the time it's done.   The outbreak in Indo is obviously the lethal Sichuan Sheet version of H5N1.   The Turkey and Iraq strains are also lethal without Tamiflu treatment.   It's disturbing to think how bad the death rate could be.   Untreated cases don't seem to survive.   

My hope is that we will need to organize and that will start at the graSS ROOTS LEVEL. I TOO AM A SINGLE MOM WITH ENOUGH FOOD FOR SIX MONTHS AND DONT SEE HOW I COULD PROTECT MY FAMILY WITHOU TTHE HELP OF MY NEIGHBOURS AND  THE GOVERMENT 

I BELEIVE THE CLOSER THIS GETS TO A REALITY FOR ALL,THE SOONER PLANNING CAN OCCUR AND I BELEIVE IT WILL. 

I BELEIVE IN NOT ACCEPTING CHARITY  ITS A TRAP AND PLAN TO PUT ENOUGH FOOD AND THINGS TOGETHER TO SURVIVE BUT WE WILL NEED TO HELP EACH OTHER OUT TO REALLY SURVIVE.  I CANT STAND THE THOUGHT OF NOT HAVING FOOD FOR MY NEIGHBOURS BUT I CANT LET MY CHILD DIE. 

WE WILL NEED TO START A BOARD ABOUT GETTING PEOPLE TOGETHER TO

PLAN  LIKE IT OR NOT IF WE DONT FEED THE LOOTERS THEY WILL KILL US

TIMING IS EVERYTHING  THE CLOSER WE GET TO THE TIME THE MORE CREDIBLE WE WILL BE

Fla_Medic -

Um, I hate to ask but... is this just now occuring to you?  All of the possibilities you mention have been apparent to me for many months now, as potential "worst case scenarios".  Regardless of what I personally do or do not do, those things may happen.

I tend to think things won't be quite so bad, for quite so long, as you envision.  First, many people won't see the threat as being that bad initially (or truly can't afford to stop working), they will keep going to work.  Medical, governmental and infrastructure employees will have first dibs on vaccines or treatments like Tamiflu (according to our state pandemic response plan) and there will probably be substantial $ incentives for them to continue to show up for work.  People who have had the pandemic flu and recovered, should be safe to go to work at essential jobs.

I may cheer heroic firemen, but I'm not about to rush into a blazing inferno 7 story apartment building because I spotted a child in a window on the 7th floor - I haven't got training or equipment to deal with that, it would basically be "suicide by heroism" for me to try.  Most people are in the same boat regarding a pandemic.  Our jobs aren't "essential" in a basic necessity of life way.  Some of us can continue to work from home as long as we have an internet connection. But although we don't have essential "keep the grid up" type jobs, we DO have responsibilities within our families that make us essential, THERE. 

Your warning tells me I have to be prepared for the fact that there may be many who are in "essential services" who may choose to stay home an protect their families rather than heroically go out and try to "save the world".  We saw that with police in New Orleans, many of whom simply walked off the job.   Dereliction of duty or simply "my family is more important than ANY job"?  We'll never know until we've walked a mile in their shoes.

I do like the idea of the "neighborhood watch" scenario where a few concerned neighbors take turns patrolling the street, keeping looters out and providing at least SOME protection for that single mother with 3 kids you mentioned.  If the neighborhood is relatively flu-free and the neighbors are cooperative, it could work.  If it gets to the point that neighbors are squabbling and those without provisions are demanding that those with provisions, take food from their own children's mouths to "share the wealth", then things are getting hairy and may degenerate into an "every man an island" situation, which would be very bad.  A good reason to prompt your neighbors to start laying in supplies now.  I am prepared to help others a bit, but what I consider "a bit" will probably seem insufficient to a cold hungry neighbor.  I definitely can't feed 100 people for a week, even, and expect to have anything left for me and my family.  At the end of that week, my pantry will be bare and we will all be in the same boat, having simply postponed the inevitable, with the difference that there are now two additional cold hungry people.

As laudable as the intention is behind the "keep a stiff upper lip, carry on now" attitude, it's a decision everyone needs to make for themselves. 

Hi Fla_Medic,

I believe your heart is in the right place, but statistics prove there aren't enough masks or any other medical equipment to last through even a month of this coming pandemic.  Every 'professional' has said that the hospitals and governments are not and can not be prepared for this - it's too huge. 

I've been 'warning' people to prepare, and their daily lives are just too busy to think about something so seriously affecting them.  My family...and I mean my WHOLE family has a plan and we are going to stick to it.  Everybody together and the house sealed off after 24 hours of H2H announcement.  We will HAVE to turn people away who didn't listen or plan for this.  We could help our neighbors, but then we are endangering ourselves but possible exposure or shortages of supplies for ourselves.  I believe we are all on our own in this - either you prepare and do the best you can and possibly still get sick, or you just suffer through what is to come with nothing.  I believe some world event is coming that will force my family to rely on each other no-matter-what.  Our supply of food and needs is for us, period.  Adults can make their choices now...I wouldn't go to a hospital for NOTHING if this does come about, not even a heart attack.  We'll die the old-fashioned way; right at home.

Fla_Medic
You are a good man. Keep us on our toes and humanity. Great topic. everybody needs to think about now and sort out.

I have bought steric acid (the main ingredient in Tamiflu and plan on distributing that as a tonic mixed with Vodka. and have a few other preps with others in mind.

We will all try to do the best we can do for others. It just if the darn bug weren't so communicable.

I plan to hanker down  with my own supplies but I want some assurance from the goverment that there will be some set up for the starving. I do beleive the goverment can set up food distributation centers in schools.  I do beleive we have the time  to plan and the manpower and the resources to survive this burnt around the edges but ok.    

Ihave no intention of ever standing inline for a handout but at the same time 

It does me no good if there are people looting and killing inthe streets

REalist pandemic planning has to be on two levels self care and proud to be that way and community care.

Well, I finally get my chance to put in my 2 cents.

I have a son (my one and only offspring) who would be classified as an essential service personnel.  I have begged, pleaded, cried hysterically, whined, nagged, and harangued him to be prepared to resign when the pandemic hits.  He has his first child on the way, and I would love to see him be around to raise HIS son.  My son just looks at me like I am insane.  No such thing as abandoning the post in this family!  I would gladly send my husband or even myself in his place, but I haven't seen street patrol for over 20 years and would do little more than take up space.

But here is my hope...there are a lot of older people out there who have raised their families will step up to the plate and allow the young people to guard themselves and their young family.

The closer this thing gets the more bitter I get.  My husband & I sacrificed a bunch to be able to send our son to private school where he would actually receive an education.  We sacrificed more to send him through four years of college.  Now that the sacrifices are over, I may be standing by while he sacrifices himself.  Sacrificing my one and only child for a society that would just as soon spit on him as smile.

How many of you out there have been spit on?  A big, fat, hawking glob, right in the face?  I have.  How many of you out there have been treated as social pariahs because of your profession?  I have.  How many of you out there have been treated like an ignorant, on-the-take looser because of your profession?  I have.  How many of you have had to answer for a decision you had to make in a split second, over and over and over and over?  I have.  American society hates its cops.  It's the same society that my son risks his life day after day to protect.  It's the society that will look to him and his brothers and sisters in blue to protect them and then listen to them b!tch about not doing a good job when only 25% of them are out there trying to keep that self same society from coming apart at the seams.

Do I sound bitter...you betcha.  Pandemic flu wasn't in the grand plan.  But you know what...we are just gonna have to deal with it.  What ever comes, or doesn't.  That's just the way it is, always has been, always will be.

This is one of the more interesting threads yet.

Ring around the rosy

Pocketful of posy.

Ashes!  Ashes!

We all fall down!

 This song’s lyrics refers to the Bubonic Plague which raged through England in 1666.  The “ring around the rosy” refers to one of the first skins symptoms of the disease.  “A pocketful of posy” refers to the fact that caregivers who actually dared to take care of the sick would often fill their pockets with flowers to overcome the stench of the dead and dying.  “Ashes…we all fall down” is reminiscent of going back to dust when we die.

If tshtf - all of the fears mentioned by others above will come home to roost in varying degrees in various locations.  Responsibility for survival may very well fall upon individual shoulders.  Trying to hold 'everything' together will most likely prove a wasteful exercise in futility resulting in attendant losses in many directions.  Just like the twin towers - many will initially run to the rescue - but there will come a tipping point - and all will come crashing down.  And it will happen quickly.  It takes time to build.  Destruction will come in the blink of an eye - like a thief in the night.  Be prepared. 

Chaos will be eventually followed by order.  This may take a bit ot time.  Anyone's guess at this point - But things will not be the same.  The Phoenix that raises from the ashes will not be the same entity as before.

We don't know what is coming down the road - we can only imagine - but we do know that horrors have happened in the past.  Civilizations have disappeared altogether.  Wars and pestilence have ravished the world.  Why do we think that the future will be any different.  But you get knocked down - you get back up - changed and hopefully stronger - and you go on.

We have been stocking up for quite some time.  We too bought into Y2K. But midnight came and went.  Perehaps this midnight will come and go also 'with much ado about nothing'.  We have relatives in the area (10) who may well end up on our doorstep.  We are planning accordingly.  I tried to tell one of them about this and his comment was "Oh - with you the sky is always falling".  Another one said "I don't want to hear it.  I've got enough problems"  I am sure that if our food goes into their mouths it will be with some bitterness on my part.

ProudestMonkey says it well:

It would be to our benefit to accept the fact that If a pandemic occurs, many  people will die. We can not save everyone; that would be like trying to carry the weight of the whole world on our shoulders, which would only result in mental and emotional breakdown. 

We must tend to our own garden first.

Swanky gives us hope:

 That's just it, you're also arguing against the straw man.  "everyone" isnt going to hole up until pandemic blows over.  "Everything" is NOT going to fall apart.

The heros and heroines will step up to the plate.  The Audie Murphys of the world are still out there.

Life will go on and after all this is over perhaps a far, far better place will rise from the ashes.

DM - well put, my Audie Murphy is Gary Gordon, one of the Delta snipers that won a medal of honor during Somilia (Black Hawk Dawn).  My thought is to put my family first - but you never know how that twists and turns.  It could be the best way to protect my family is to help protect the neighbors that live next to me.  It is difficult to prepare for the unexpected, because it is not expected.  To be prepared to go down swinging is the attitude I hope I have when/if the SRHTF for any event. 

Again - I liked your post, our grandfathers did amazing things.