How many makes it Multiple Out Breaks?

Correct me if I'm wrong but are we having multiple outbreaks or just a busy week?

Indonesia, 2/3rds of provinces BF 2 dead, (human deaths Jarkata city of millions, Sumatra island, Java?)

China  2 deaths reported a week average.  (Reluctantly given info)

Turkey (Human deaths and more to follow. It ain't over till the fat lady sings.)

Iraq least 2 dead (hundred  so suspected cases.)

Dead Indian Sailor in Germany/ Lithuania.  Where was previous port of call?

Bulgaria spread in Swans

Romania's been erily quiet no news announcing victory. (They've been hammered.)

Nigeria Kill

Cyprus  Bird Positives

Morraco (sp)?

Serri Leone (rumor of infected raw meat?)

India (Multiple species bird die off?

Lake in the Ladakh region of Jammu and Kashmir (Don't forget sailor in dead in Lithuania/Germany from India.)

Ukrane (and lower surounding region to Turkey) 

Saudi Arabia Falcons

Hong Kong smuggled birds positive

England Swans

Sure I left off a few. What if most the news is a week to 2 old?

Joe knows more about South America and Congo Regoin in Africa.

H2H? ......mmmmmmmmm....we could wait for that officially from what source? or do we compute birds now as harbengers of B2H & H2H.

Whereever outbreaks occur in birds. Birds die. People die.  Human clusters  develope in a 1/3 off bird outbreaks? . Turkey, Vietnam, Iraq, Indonesia. etc. How many do we need and in what given news time lag effect on the reoprting of the cases? 

How do you decide multiple? Its out of Asia with a bang.

How much did the Haj have to play in this and how much will the Olympics?

Don't we have to start drawing out own conclusions at some point? We need to come up with some type of forcasting model of our own facts, hypothises, conclusions and some fiction  and press release it based on that.

Could we form a committe of say twenty represenatives from different areas and vote on it?

DO we say in the US when I hear of it in New York? or La or Seattle. then it's multiple?

To me birds and humans are the same message in a way. .

Let's put our case together for level 4 and put it out there. Its definitely a level 6 for birds. why not a level 4 for humans?

Lets start some $hit with the WHO and lay our case out to them in the press. Let's call them chicken.

I don't think I have enough knowledge to help with this...but I'm 100% behind you - the WHO website doesn't even have Iraq on their map that shows the spread.  They are (I would guess) at least 2-3 weeks behind on their updating.  What gives????  If we are relying on them for the news of H2H, we may all be endagering ourselves. 

Corn - you are AWESOME!!!  Great thinking....

Exactly what we have been saying. I think many people are in agreement with the Alert Level to 4.

The only people that don't seem to be in agreement are the WHO.

I have opened a new page on the subject of Middle East falconry as a vector/venue for spreading Avian Flu.  I invite you to join in at the following URL:

http://www.avianflutalk.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=1348&PN= 1

I am simply the messenger, upgrading public awareness of Arab falconry causing the spread of several avian pandemics, including avian influenza and newcastles.

U.C.R. has been tracking avian influenza across the Middle East, long before today's popular scare, and we have been warning various agencies about the potential for situations like Saudi Arabia.

The anticipated raise in threat warnings, may possibly be delayed or averted by SHUTTING DOWN Arab falconry, which is one of U.C.R.'s goals.  For this action, U.C.R. should be appreciated.