Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
"Think outside your box!" - Event Date: October 13 2006 |
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maybe I am not taking this seriously enough, but my preps are food, water, defense, and meds. It is mostly stuff we use anyway. I'm actually saving money by buying most things in bulk. I have not let this consume my life as it appears others have. I am not prepared to fight a battalion of Marines trying to take my preps, nor am I prepared to leave my home and take my family into the wilderness to hide from everyone. I can lock my doors, protect my home from criminals, even large mobs of criminals, and survive for a while with no electric power and no supplies, assuming no-one in my family becomes sick. I will help my friends and neighbors as best I can.
I think the govt will maintain minimum supply lines, and at worst sporadic essential services, but you will be on your own as they have said repeatedly. It also may not happen, or may not happen for years. I think people need to keep a grip on life and not go off the deep end, until the deep end presents itself. If it does happen, this is what i think will be the likely sitrep: Hospitals will be swamped within 3 -4 days. In that time frame stores may run out of many supplies, and when the deaths start to pile up with in a week, the govt will declare that panic is worse than the flu. Like what happens in a natural disaster people will be asked to stay home unless travel is absolutely necessary, the national guard may be mobilized, marshal law might be declared in affected areas and radio and TV will announce who and what jobs are considered essential. Essential worker ID cards will be given out either by companies or authorities to allow those that need to travel, get to work. looters will be shot on sight, and most people will stay home rationing what food they have. Food stores will stay open with sporadic supplies. Quarantines will be enforced in selected areas to try to stop the spread. Initial areas might be supplied by air drops or convoys. If it is highly lethal, at the second week in an affected area, many people will be dead, and the food shortage will not be as severe. if it is not highly lethal, the disruptions will be less. Eventually, life will go on for those that survive. personally I don't think neighbors will turn on each other. I believe in the triumph of humanity over adversity. War is a perfect example of this. the people in east Berlin did not turn on each other. the people in Croatia did not turn on each other. the people in the Nazi death camps did not turn on each other. the Irish didn't turn on each other during the potato famine. these groups of people faced very harsh conditions including famine, yet they did not turn on each other. Yes there will be criminals, there always are. they generally tend to be stupid and will probably succumb to disease first. they will be the ones out stealing TVs, getting sick and dying. just my opinion |
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Mach that was very a compelling scenario... I think if they had done a movie like that it would have seemed more real and understandable. They didn't give facts like that... it seemed emotional and chaotic. At least that's how I remember it. You are right. It could be years.... Mr. Brilliant said in the video that the experts said (15%) it could happen in the next few yrs and the rest of the experts felt it would happen in their children or grandchildren's lifetime.
The death rate from the experts was 7-15%... anyone else watch Mr. Brilliant? (I know...but it's his real name :)
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Mach, I agree with you to a point. However, your examples of community are not entirely valid:
"the people in east Berlin did not turn on each other." The reason being is that the US airlifted in food and supplies, remember the Berlin Airlift?
" the people in Croatia did not turn on each other". This was a regional political crisis, not a worldwide pandemic. They certainly did turn on each other -- they created death camps, rape camps and "etnically cleansed" whole towns of their people.
"the Irish didn't turn on each other during the potato famine". This was a regional famine and a large portion of the poplutation left the country to seek food and shelter. Which lends credence to most of our concerns about wandering bands pillaging the countryside.
" the people in the Nazi death camps did not turn on each other". Please. Those people had all they could do to keep from getting gassed, shot, raped and experimented on by the Nazis. Do you know what a Capo was?
You can believe what you want about your neighbors. I believe that good fences make good neighbors. I also, believe that I will never let down my guard to a starving man, no matter who it is.
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In all these situations there was acommon enemy for people to unite and focus against. Ina pandemic there will be no common enemy, that is a major difference.
I'm not saying let down your guard, I don't even do that now. I'm just saying i don't think we will see the wholsale lawlessness and violence that some people believe will happen. At least i hope not. I am preped for it though.
Everything I state is my opinion, and half of it is wrong. :-)
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Weird-one
V.I.P. Member Joined: August 02 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 76 |
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Mach, I think I’m of the same opinion as you. I see the potential for wide scale supply disruptions and some limited social disorder which I believe will dwindle as natural selection takes the entitlement crowd. I don’t see hoards of torch bearing people storming the castle like some scene from Frankenstein but rather an increase in small criminal activity from opportunists. I do anticipate neighbors banding together to help each other, I know I intend to. I think the odds of survival are better that way.
I live in a city and I intend to wait it out in my home where I have extra food, water, weapons, medical supplies and cash. I could bug out if I had to but, with all due respect to the bug out crowd, I consider this to be an undesirable solution to be implemented only if things get far worse than I anticipate. However if this happens it will be unprecedented in history and all bets are off. My theories may go right out the window as I go out the door to run for the hills!
I, like Wolfgang2000 don’t believe in a “Postman” type scenario afterward. I’m certain life will return to some semblance of what we now know.
Steve
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For once in my life I hope I'm wasting money!
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lkay
V.I.P. Member Joined: March 24 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 163 |
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Weird-one, I sure hope you and Mach are right! Your posts were reassuring.
I don't have close neighbors to band together with. One of my biggest fears is the "bad" guys will have the same idea. I feel like I need to "fear" the worst to be prepared but then again don't want to let that fear make me trigger happy either. Some days I can't seem to find the line between "being prepared" and "taking it to the limit". Maybe the line is differnet for everyone, but lately, I"m finding it harder to relax, smile, laugh and enjoy all the great things the good Lord has blessed me with. I like your way of thinking Mach. I need to realize I can only do so much and watch out for the deep end. |
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I agree with mach and Wierd-one. I fully anticipate that my
neighbors in my suburban neighborhood will work together to help each
other and to survive.
Although I feel I am one of the best prepared in the neighborhood we all have different strengths, skills , items, equipment, etc. I realize that I do not have every skill or every piece of equipment that may be valuable in a disaster but some one in my neighborhood does. I also realize that it will be virtually impossible to completely avoid exposure to a severe pandemic because it will be circulating for years. Realizing that there is a chance that I will be exposed I know that I might need help. What will you do if despite your best efforts you somehow catch the pandemic flu and your whole family is too sick to get out of bed. Without someone to help you, you will all die. But a caring neighbor could provide simple nursing care that would keep you alive. If you are one of the people that plans on locking all the doors and not helping others in need during the pandemic do you think anyone would be anxious to help you when you need help? I anticipate there will be people I know that need my help and will die with out it. If I help them there is a chance I will be exposed. If I am exposed there is a chance I will get sick. If I get sick there is a chance I will die. I would rather take that chance than have to live the rest of my life knowing I could have saved someone else's life and didn't. Unless this pandemic is much worse than the 1918 one, I think that for most people despite their preps, working together will provide the best chance of survival. |
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general
V.I.P. Member Joined: April 18 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 19 |
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Do you have enough food for your caring neighbors?
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I have some to share and would certainly share with any of my friends or family members that needed food. I expect many of my neighbors have more food stored than I do. Many of them are LDS (Mormon) and believe in having a years worth of food storage. |
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Weird-one
V.I.P. Member Joined: August 02 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 76 |
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Linda, I don’t profess to know the answers; I would find anyone who says they do questionable. But I don’t worry too much about something I can’t do anything about. As Mach wrote this could go on for years and since worry is corrosive to one’s soul, I suggest you prepare then relax; you’ve done what you can. It’s easy to get all wrapped up in this and overact thinking I’m not as well prepared as this person or I could do this one more thing. I’ve reined myself in a couple of times.
I think you hit the nail on the head when you wrote that the preparation line is different for everyone. The big question is where is that line between nothing and full tilt boogie for you. Unfortunately only you can say. Prepare, just don’t dwell on it.
Steve
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For once in my life I hope I'm wasting money!
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I have set aside food for my neighbors and a way to distribute it without contact. 25 lbs of rice is only $7 and 10 lbs of beans are $6. I can't feed the neighborhood for 6 months, but I can help.
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I agree. It's easy to get wrapped up believing it will happen next week. It might, but if it doesn't happen for years, that stress will eat you alive, destroy your happiness and probably produce desease as your body and immune system wear done from the constant stress.
Prep, enjoy, prep some more as you are able, but plan on it not happening also, so that you can enjoy life and not spend your last dime on another 25 lb bag of rice.
I learned in the military to beleive in peace, but prepare for war. That way your covered either way, and you minimize the stress while waiting for the war to start.
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Our plan is to stay put as long as possible. We live in the suberbs and if the looting got that bad, the roads would be jammed with other people trying to get out too. I think that staying put is the best course of action, until you fear for your life in spite of efforts to protect yourself. Even if we had to leave, we have bug out backpacks filled and would hope to make it to a neighbor's house or a nearby relative. I think that driving out of town would be impossible and we're not so fit anymore that we could walk that far loaded down with our packs. I'm hoping that if it gets that bad, our neighborhood would block itself off with cars and form it's own milita. I'm for staying in place.
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lkay
V.I.P. Member Joined: March 24 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 163 |
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Steve and Mach, thank you. You both pretty much described my life lately and the stress I've felt. This has stressed and worried me more than anything ever has and I have let it take center stage. This is a wonderful place, but I have to realize I can't do everything that everybody is doing. I've printed out "books" of information here, but instead of my list getting shorter, it only seems to grow. All this is completely new territory for me and I hate living in this "how can I do it all" mind set. I"m going to read and reread what you two suggest and know it's what is best for my family and myself. My husband's already said what good is all this going to do if you get sick from stressing over it all.
I really appreciate the good advice. |
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4A&M I thought we talked about trip wires and tangle foot. Whether you use tin cans, or light sticks you have to be awake to hear / see the alarm. Cans will be good if you think the "alarm" will scare them off. It may just make them charge in.
You would be surprised what you can make with a rat trap, a piece of pipe, and a 22 blank. Or a clothes pin and some wires.
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Hi Wolfgang 2000, so can you tell me what you can make with a rat trap, a piece of pipe, and a 22 blank or a clothes pin and some wires? Thanks a bunch.
Dixie
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Wolfgang, we did talk about that.... and I bought 7 glow stick trip wire kits online, militarty surplus. Four are for my Dad, so he'll have two at each of his possible location and we'll have three left for us. I'll be making up other kits too, though, noise kits, so I am reading this all voraciously.
I'm like DixieGirl, I have my curiosity peaked, what can you make with those items? Thanks!
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I'm not going into details on the rat trap. I'll just say you can make your own claymore mine, which is illegal to do.
The clothes pin how ever is just a trigger to an alarm. It's really simple. Put a thumb tack on the inside of each side of the pin. Attach wires to the thumb tack. The wires run to your alarm inside. Attach clothes pin to stationary object down low. Use a piece of plastic, or other non conductive material, and put it between the jaws of the clothes pin. Hook trip wire to insulator material, and run it across area you want to protect, and attach it to another object.
Bad guy hit trip wire and pull out insulator, thus closing the circuit. Alarm in house activated. You are alerted, bad guy is not. You can buy a battery pack and a buzzer at radio shack. Instant area alarm.
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Wolfgang, thanks for the instructions.
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Weird-one
V.I.P. Member Joined: August 02 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 76 |
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Dixie girl, two ways to attach the clothes pin to a stationary object are to put a screw or nail through the hole of the spring on the clothes pin into a stake (don't screw it down tight) or to drill a small hole in the end of one of the handles, run a wire through it, twist it off and use the other end to attach to something stationary. I think the later is the more versatile. The insulator for the jaws can be a tab made from plastic milk carton with a hole in it for the trip line. It slips out without much force on the trip line.
G-R-I-T-S are the best!
Steve
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For once in my life I hope I'm wasting money!
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Steve, thanks so much for that additional info. By the way, I do like grits -even though my yankee DH says they're really for paving roads!! (He eats rice with sugar, too, instead of gravy or butter! Aaaargh....
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Weird-one
V.I.P. Member Joined: August 02 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 76 |
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Dixie Girl, I was actually referring to GRITS, Girls Raised In The South!
Steve
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For once in my life I hope I'm wasting money!
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I guess I have been in this house too long!! ha
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Ha, Dixie Girl, I'm from AL too and I didn't get it either, was thinking to myself "grits rule!" Ha, ha.
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4abbie&maddie, hey there! Thank God I wasn't the only one not to get it! ha ha. Hope you have a great weekend.
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Weird-one
V.I.P. Member Joined: August 02 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 76 |
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4A&M, you buff yet from thrashing away at that petrified stump of fatwood in your basement? I’ll bet you have a new job as a belly button model or are winning bets you can bounce a quarter off your 6 pack abs down at the bar!
Steve
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For once in my life I hope I'm wasting money!
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Hardee, har-har. No, I'm in pretty good shape for a 35 year old, but not belly-button model kinda shape!! ha, ha!! You're a trip, that sure made me smile!!!
I've passed by that stump every morning, afternoon, etc. that I go to get in my car and it's glaring at me to come and hack at it. I think it's daring me to try it again - I swear I almost took my foot off the last time I took a whack at it. I'm going to let it sit down there, I've bought wood, and I've got full tanks for the heat, so I'm planning that to be my "stress release" when TSHTF. I'm going to want to kill someone and that'll be a good thing to go take out my frustrations on. I'm probably going to move it soon, put it behind something so I'm not looking at it every single day. It's beckoning!
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Here is something for you all to think about. A motion activated driveway alarm. These are battery operated, portable and wireless. You can get a inexpensive one for about $20.00. I seen them advertised in Harbor Freight, and Harriet Carter, and places like that. I have one, that is a little more expensive, on my driveway. The only draw back is false alarms on windy days, and they will pick up animals. Deer set mine off all the time.
You all might sign up to get the Harbor Freight catalog. It's not just tools. They have all sorts of stuff.
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Harbor Freight - is this the one you have? I'm thinking of ordering one.
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MississippiMama
Valued Member Joined: November 07 2006 Status: Offline Points: 136 |
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Wolfgang2000, thanks for the reminder, This has been on my list for a long time. I will order one this week.
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Mississippi Mama
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No the one I have is called the "Reporter". It goes for about $70.00. I went with that one because of the range. It's about 100 yards from my gate to the house. It also allows multiple transmitters for one receiver. I'm not 100% happy with it. When it is very hot or cold there are a lot of false or missed alarms.
I was thinking about the less expensive one for around the house. To match your out of the box night time perimeter alarm. Mount the "eye" to cover the area you want to cover. You can carry the receiver to the room you are in at the time.
As I said they are not 100%. But they could be another "tier" perimeter defense.
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Anharra,
Wahoo, that's a good one! I'm going to look into that for sure.
I don't know about the magnet thing... anyone here got any ideas or opinions on that? I think that it could possibly be a help to your dad, if he's inside and the light comes on, it's damaged the intruder's night vision when it comes on - they'll have about a 15-30 second lapse before thier eyes adjust to that burst of light. If your Dad is inside looking out, he's not going to be affected like that, so I'd think that it would be a benefit. One of the things we'd all have to be cautious of with these types of night devices is the idea of people working together, one set it off, get us distracted with that while another moves in somewhere else.
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I'd think that it would be a benefit.
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good idea if he could see the intruder...
and they have giftwrap :) (xmas)
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Since it will only come on when motion activates it I don't see a problem. The one I have has a off switch, so if you don't want it to come on just turn it off. You should also be able to select a sensitivity setting. It is very similar to what I have in the feed room of my horse shed.
I've bought from Smarthome before. They are good people, a little pricey, but good people.
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