Cash could run out in flu pandemic as ATMs go unst

Cash could run out in flu pandemic as ATMs go unstocked, warns watchdog
Nov 25,2006
By Barney Jopsonand Andrew Jack

Cash supplies could dry up at the peak of a flu pandemic in parts of the country as bank branches close and leave automated teller machines unstocked, the City watchdog has warned.

The Financial Services Authority said the vulnerability of the cash supply system was a serious weakness that the government, regulators and industry needed to address. Its comments came as the watchdog revealed the preliminary conclusions of a six-week exercise designed to simulate the impact of a flu pandemic on the financial services sector.

A growing number of companies and governments around the world have launched simulations to assess the risks of a pandemic, which the World Health Organisation has estimated could infect up to a third of the world's population and cause up to 7m deaths, even in a mild form.

The current H5N1 strain, which has proved lethal in birds and could mutate into a form easily transmissible among humans, has infected 258 people and killed 153 across the globe.

In the FSA exercise, which involved 70 of the City's biggest institutions plus the Treasury and Bank of England, the FSA assumed that at its peak a pandemic would lead to almost 50 per cent of staff being off work.

Richard Maddison, deputy head of financial stability at the FSA and the exercise's director, said: "For retail banks, as we turned up the absence levels and threw more problems at them, they were making decisions about closing branches, and the number of ATMs available was falling significantly."

The Post Office, another cash provider, was also impaired. "There would be areas where people were likely not to have cash," Mr Maddison said. Credit and debit cards could limit the impact but the exercise revealed doubts about whether out-of-date cards could be replaced if issuers were left with fewer staff.

During the exercise, the institutions received notices each week outlining developments in the pandemic and its effects on their operations and the wider economy. They were required to provide the regulator with details of their responses.

The events of a five-month pandemic were squeezed into the six-week simulation. Absence rates due to sickness, caring, mourning and fear rose from 15 per cent to 49 per cent as the pandemic took hold. The FSA then lifted rates by another 10 per cent in some areas by injecting a freak blizzard that caused transport chaos into its scenario. In the City, the exercise revealed more work was needed to determine how a return to "business as usual" would be managed after a pandemic. To keep their core operations running, Mr Maddison said City institutions were shutting down activities such as telephone sales and marketing for new business. "Given the decisions you've made, how are you going to return to normal trading, bring staff back in, and pick up where you left off? What about the backlog of work? How are you going to prioritise that?"

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/66783950-7c2a-11db-b1c6-0000779e2340,_i_rssPage=34c8a8a6-2f7b-11da-8b51-00000e2511c8.html

    

    

Never mind about ATM machines. You will not need cash at all. All you will neeed is shelter,water and food. These alone will keep you alive. Make sure you have enough to last for many months. Money and all the rest is not really necesaary. Don't bother with the bills. The water, gas and electricity will be down for months anyway.

There is something else you will need - a weapon and the will and force to use it.. There will be  many desperate people who would be happy to compromise your well being, and that of your loved ones, by stealing your water and food, as well possibly as your shelter- (home).

If it comes to it good luck. And get ready to do stuff you may have to do, like harm people who want to harm you

try not to worry.... buy long 6 ft or more, black cloth and at some point hang it from windows,  will keep people away... hang from second story windows if you have them....for greatest effect.  Also... (have I been thinking on this or what?) build a plain coffin from pine wood to actual size and put it outside your front door... put some rocks wrapped in cloth in it.  If someone takes it away....make another.  I'll try to come up with more...

[snip]...in actual practice people tend to work together in a crisis, so now is the time to prepare to work together. [snip] Katrina/Rita proved this, unknown leaders/heros stepped up to help everywhere.

ian 123,

a ton of tinned food, as you suggest, is a good idea i think, but I doubt that gearing up to fight will help.

History shows that in populated areas people always do better in groups, and in this case that will require planning because of the need for social distancing.

Cash/money is the best tool for social distancing because money is a portable marketplace: good in trade for anything, and so allows you to trade with the least amount of contact. A major pandemic lasting over a year could leave us with a global depression/recovery lasting for several years, and that's hard to store supplies for. Cash is a solution, and a willingness to cooperte with others to work and trade for cash - to grow crops, do childcare, teaching, etc.

Now is the time to prepare to work with others in groups to protect each other and this a good forum for finding others to work with.

 The federal Goverment controls how far a market can drop befor it is closed to prevent this. Its hard to beleave that there are so many people worth so much on paper that if they all tried to gather all the cash at the same time that they would all be broke. This is something that everyone should be aware of and avoid hording large amounts of cash.  I don't understand.  Are you saying my paper money would be devalued? I have been saving money at home in the event of the pandemic so I would still be able to pay for fuel or whatever when other ran out of cash. I realize credit cards would be useless, but cash also.

Thank you Timber, I understand what you're saying. We saw price gouging after the hurricanes from water-equipment-lodging, etc. Yes your dollars did not stretch as far any longer.

I also agree people should get out of debt now. The interest payments on loans and credit cards could be paying for supplies. Cancel the extras and see how much you save, it’s amazing what you can do to cut corner. Adding money to mortgages, each year, month and better yet weekly can really save interest costs. We did pay off the land and decided to finish building in phases when we have the cash. So another year or so living in my husbands’ to be shop will be okay. I’m still going to have some cash at home.

birdshot.cc very interesting site, thanks.

Having goods with real value will be key, such as food and basic supplies, because they may be unavailable at any price due to distribution issues.

However, you do not want to be without cash.  There are certain things and a great many scenarios where all the electronic money in the world or even barter won't do you a bit of good, but the cold hard green stuff, will.

 

My wife and I each have $500 in 20's, 10's, 5's and 1's, and $10 in quarters, and $10 in dimes stashed away at home.  We each have a similar $100 in bills and coins hidden in a secret and secure place in our vehicles, no, not the glove compartment or other obvious place.  It's just peace of mind that we will never be stuck in a do-or-die situation, and not have ANY cash at our disposal.

 

This is a good general policy to have, for "everyday" emergencies as well as wide-spread SHTF type situations.  We agree not to touch this unless it is a real, Honest-To-God emergency, not just a whim or convenience.  If that sounds like a lot of money for some people, just start out small and add a little every payday.  Start with $50, and add another $50 every payday for 10 cycles.  Make sure you get mixed denomination small bills and change.  Don't forget that a payphone or a vending machine may be useless to you without proper change, and may make all the difference in the world to you on some dark and desperate day.  Anticipate that while YOU may have money, others with whom you exchange may have NO MONEY to give you change, so you need small bills to make exact change.  If all you have are Ben Franklins, what you want costs $125, you just lost $75 that you may desperately need later, all because you didn't have the exact amount.

 

Think, think, think.... with all of us thinking, I'm sure we'll uncover even more reasons to have some cash on hand.

Timber,

I agree with much of what you write above. Cross-training is a proven metasystems approach to disaster preparedness and it is being employed by many businesses preparing for pandemic: the redundancy protects the system by moving beyond it to address needs when normal operations fail. Local money creates the ultimate metasystem: a redundant marketplace that can answer needs that the global marketplace cannot.

In local money systems the cash is only good within the community. People will still use national currency, if they have it, to purchase imported goods. The local currency continuously recirculates locally, supplying cash for local labor and local production, even if the national currency goes away and doesn't come back. So the local cash is ideal for generating local food and water supplies, which is the greatest concern if flu shuts down borders and transportation, and cripples the global marketplace. During the 1918-19 pandemic, most towns still had true local marketplaces with local food production, and so cash tended to recirculate locally, but, as you say, not today.

During the Great Depression in the US, the suffering lasted years longer than it needed to because the federal government decided to pump national currency into public works projects rather than supporting the development of local currencies nationwide. The towns that used local currency on their own did well because although the national currency flowed out, the local currency recirculated and so powered local production and trade.

This time, the Central Banks are preparing to once again pump national currencies into circulation. But you can't eat money or buy food that isn't there, and the national currency will flow out rather than support local production of food. One notable exception is Switzerland. The Swiss were hit very hard by the Spanish Flu and they haven't forgotten. They've already ordered enough of the St Jude vaccine to inoculate every citizen at least once, and they have a secondary national currency - a redundant national currency called the Wir - that cannot leave production and enter international currency markets. More than 95% of national currency in the US and other countries leaves production and ends up in international currency markets - 19 of every 20 dollars. That means that every dollar of local currency has 20 times the power of national currency to produce locally. It doesn't further enrich the rich or finance wars. It grows food and pumps water.

As for taxes, local currencies is taxed exactly like national currency, but of course taxes must still be paid with national currency. Some economists are working hard to change that and if and when they do we will see dramatic economic improvements. For example, there is a town in Argentina that accepts local money for taxes and the result has been the creation of a healthy local marketplace that feeds trhe poor. Meanwhile, communities using local currencies caution individuals and businesses to use only as much local currency as they can manage and still meet their national-currency expenses. For example, a merchant might limit the amount of local currency they accept to 50% of the purchase. Since local currency is 20 times as productive as national currency and all of that production stays local, even smaller percentages of local currency help build strong local marketplaces fast.

I think we have a good chance of beating H5N1, but sooner or later a pandemic is going to shut down the global marketplace. Using local currencies alongside national currency is an historically proven solution to economic crisis that has been largely lost to living memory, but the information has been collected and posted on the internet by people using local systems to fight poverty and unemployment today all over the world. You can google it or visit www.birdshot.cc and follow the links to the cc library. Birdshot is a completely volunteer operation that charges nothing, and, in fact, some of those links were gathered from this site.

 hi to all,   good to see you post again Bruss, hope all is well, miss your posts. On the money issue,  If you can put a few dollars away a week ,thats great, I'm saving change, the bills are going for preps.I think we will know on this and other forums, when  bird flu hits first. but it's some thing to think about, and I will. As my dear departed stepfather would say."stash the cash", and I believe it was a horse's name, one of course that he played. roxy

roxy,

That's a good idea, i think: start saving cash in the mattress. Here is something else to think about: You can't eat cash in a crisis - you need a local marketplace to grow and sell food. But the national currency will flow out and not come back. So, unless there is very very much national currency and it is being invested in local agriculture for everybody...

One of the products that can be procuced almost anywhere with elbow grease and a little money for materials is food. Local currency systems are ideal for local agricultural development because they are great at paying for that labor. In some towns and cities the farmer's markets are already members of local money systems. In Ithaca, New York, for instance, farm labor is paid $10 per hour in local currency (the highest farm labor wage in the US) and that works because the money goes around and around. Interestingly, the money doesn't attract migrant labor because it is no good outside of the region. What a great thing it would be for employment, food production, the poor and hungry, and everybody (except slavers) if that was done in every community - and it can be! You can read about the Ithaca system at www.ithacahours.com. They even sell a local-money startup kit, i think it cost under $20 last time I checked.

As I mention above, there is that town in Argentina that accepts local money for taxes, and that works really well for food production as you might imagine, because everybody is willing to trade with local currency and the town redistributes it to the poor who use it to buy local food. That would be a very excellent place to be in a major pandemic. Nobody will have to shoot anybody there, or hide behind locked doors, because they have the food autonomy and cash availability that local currency produces. I repeat that example because getting people to trade with local currency so that you build a local marketplace requires that people trust that they can spend the money, and when the town accepts it in taxes then that hurdle is passed and the system can take off even when there is no lack of national currency.

If we have a couple of years before pandemic, and who knows, then most places have time to start local money systems. My own town has a tourism economy - totally national currency and almost zero local production. This is the hardest nut to crack because there is almost nobody to start with...except artists, cooks, child care providers, back-yard gardners, health care people, taxi drivers, teachers...and anybody who dreams of starting their own business but can't compete with Walmart.

Old Indian saying:

I doubt trade will come to a halt. In 1918-1920 food stores stayed open, people still bought food. Supplies were sporatic in many places, but shipments did happen and food stores did sell.

ian123 wrote: I really can't see what use money would be at all in a prolonged pandemic disaster. You can't eat it or drink it or get shelter from it.   I won't care how many millions you offer me for my tin of sardines - it will not be for sale.

Can't they maybe come up with an alternate system of trade other than with cash?

Cash/money is the best tool for social distancing because money is a portable marketplace: good in trade for anything, and so allows you to trade with the least amount of contact. A major pandemic lasting over a year could leave us with a global depression/recovery lasting for several years, and that's hard to store supplies for. Cash is a solution, ............................................................................................................................

boocracker,

i agree with you completely that planning to get your gun and fight for your peanut butter is an ungood idea and that what we really need is a plan for having food available over the long haul. That's why I am stressing the historical success of local money systems during past crisis: they finance production and trade.

Empty ATMs is the least of our money worries.

Here is something for fun and to help illustrate the real money problem as it relates to flu:

Do you know how many US dollars the government of China has stored away in its mattress? Not stocks, bonds, and US properties, not dollars held by companies and citizens, I'm talking about dollars that the Chinese government has, physical cash money, like you have in your wallet. Here is a way to visualize how much loose US cash the Chinese government has.

Find ten people who will each give you a single dollar. Find ten more. Ten more. Starts to get hard, but it's only a dollar each. When you have 100 dollar bills, wrap them in a band. Now do it again. Do it again. When you have ten wrapped bands, each with 100 dollar bills, put them in a shoe box. Now you have 1000 dollars. Ok, you've worked hard enough, so just use your imagination for the rest :)

Fill one hundred of these shoe boxes with dollars, and then stack them in a shipping crate so you can ship them to China in exchange for cheap plastic "stuff" from Walmart. Do that ten times until the crate is jammed with 1000 shoe boxes full of dollar bills. That is 1 million dollars.

Now do that again and again until you have ten shipping crates stuffed with money. Neatly stack those shipping crates on the bow of a cargo ship. Then line up 10 stacks of 10 crates. Then do that again, working your way aft, until you have that cargo ship jammed with 1000 crates filled with 1000 boxes of cash each. That is 1 billion dollars.

Now do that again. And again and again until you have 10 cargo ships jammed with 1000 crates full of boxes of cash. If you are dizzy take a break here.

Get those ships underway because you have more left to do and you don't want to create a traffic jam. Begin again. And again and again, until you have 10 convoys of 10 cargo ships steaming towards China, each with 1000 crates stuffed with 1000 boxes of dollars each. Get a cup of coffee, you'll need your energy.

Do that all again - the dollars, the shoe boxes, the crates, the stacks, the ships - and again, and again...until you have

1000 CARGO SHIPS PACKED WITH CASH.

That is how much US cash China has in plain old ready money. About $1,000,000,000,000 (1 trillion dollars). And the US has rusty bicycles and broken kitchen appliances from China. No offense to the Chinese laborer or the US consumer, that is just how it is, and everybody knows it. Hey, paper for plastic, what's wrong with that? Read on and see.

This month, China decided that it has too much of that US paper (go figure) and it has now begun to unload that cash on the currency market. So the currency market now has excess US cash and so US cash is cheap, or, in other words, the value of the US paper is going down and down, and will continue to go down for quite a while. This means that the price of oil is going to go up and up in US dollars. Of course, the oil producing nations must accept US cash for oil. If they do not, then they will be in deep trouble. Only one guy EVER said "no" to US cash for his oil, and a few months later his country was invaded by the US and now he is waiting to be hanged. But the oil-rich countries do not want to be stuck with a lot of cheap US cash that is going down in value so they are also unloading it on the currency exchange just like China is unloading it.

You guessed it, that means the value of US dollars could go down faster still, which means the price of oil and cheap plastic stuff from Walmart goes up and up, faster and faster. It also means that more and more folks from around the world will be buying stuff from the US because they have all that cheap cash, so the US will also have lots of work available, and so this a problem that also has some good aspects for US workers. They can expect their national minimum wage to go up for the first time in many years, for instance.

So, what does this all have to do with flu?

Well, almost all of that cash is going to end up in currency markets. Less than 1 dollar out of every 20 will stay in the hands of people where it is used for production, and that 1 dollar will be worth less and less and less and less. If panflu comes, US citizens will try very hard to spend those cheap dollars on food and batteries and such. And so food and batteries and such will become very scarce in stores and the price of what is left will go up and up and up and up. The stores will soon have no food and batteries and the citizens will soon have no money. So, many of the stores will send their workers home and many of the citizens will stay at home to avoid flu anyway, and so many many people will stop earning money. With no earnings, those folks will stop spending and paying their bills, and so more and more and more stores will send workers home, and so more and more manufacturers and warehouses will send workers home, and more and more and more folks will have no earnings and so will buy less and less...this is what the recent simulation in the City of London proved.

Soon, money will become very very scarce, as scarce as food, with more and more cash staying in currency markets, driving the value of cash down even though people will want it very badly. Credit Card companies will stop honoring cards because too many people will stop paying the monthly installments. Banks will close and ATMs will be empty. With nobody buying, nobody will be producing. Many crops will not be planted, and some that are planted will not be harvested, because the machines will break down and the parts will not be available. Few of the crops that are harvested will be shipped away from where they are grown because they will be needed right where they are and shipping will be very expensive and difficult because gas will be hard to get, stores will be closed, and truck parts unavailable...

The US Federal Reserve MAY start printing money like toilet paper, but that MAY be about all it is good for. And the oil producing nations may finally all get together and say "we don't want cheap US dollars any more". In fact, they may do that very soon, even without any flu at all because the US is not about to go to war with any more countries and OPEC has already started talking about switching from the petrodollar to the petroeuro. If the oil producers stop taking US dollars then oil buyers will stop needing to buy US dollars on the currency exchange and the value of the dollar will drop with no known bottom.

This is almost certainly why China is dumping its US dollars now: because the value of the dollar is threatened by oil producing nations switching to the petroeuro and looming global economic crises such as panflu. China is dumping its US dollars relatively slowly because as the value goes down they get less for them. It's a catch 22 situation for China. But with the US military stretched thin and the US deep deep deep in debt, China sees that the US can no longer afford to force oil producers to accept US dollars, even if the new Democrat controlled congress changes stripes and wants war.

By the way, probably most of you don't know this, but for a long time now, oil producing countries have had to accept US dollars and NOTHING other than US dollars for oil. The US dollar is the "petrodollar", the only money that most of the world can buy oil with, and that is why the US dollar has been king and the US economy has been the largest and strongest in the world, and that is why the US has been uninterested in alternative fuels or controlling greenhouse gas, but instead wholly interested in huge military mite to force the petrodollar on the world. Many people say that is why the US invaded Iraq - to protect the petrodollar and the US economy, not to get oil.

But the party is over.

Economists have seen this coming for a long time, but, like tobacco company scientists, many politically-influenced economists have lied and continue to lie. Check the news. You will see that the dollar's value is going down down down and nobody mentions the petrodollar and very few mention China dumping dollars. I realize that this means that you probably will not believe what I have written here, but if OPEC switches to the petroeuro, then perhaps you will remember and you will know that there is something you can do:

Use local money to create a local marketplace to grow and buy local food and water. Economic crisis leading to the creation of local money systems that work right along with national currency has happened before. It really works.

I apologize for this terribly long post, but I wanted to put all this money info in one thread. It's just my opinion, of course, and I won't interrupt those of you who want to tell me it is nonsense. Hey, I might be wrong about petrodollars and Chinese divestiture...but I'm not. On the other hand, China might stop dumping dollars because the oil producers might decide that they prefer the stability of the US military "protecting" them in exchange for sticking with the petrodollar. Who knows? It's people who make these decisions, and people are hard to predict, as you may already know. And after China decided to dump dollars, the US suddenly began to talk about talking to Iran and Israel decided to talk about talking peace with Hamas...go figure.

kparcell

 

 

 

http://www.avianflutalk.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=13579

Thanks for teh great post kparcell!

Do you have any ideas how this will affect the value of stocks.  I'm guessing that large international companies will be affected but will not necessarily colapse whe the dollar does.

do not accept anything given to you. that means trade, barter, cash etc. think about the smallpox infected blankets given to the indians. have on hand what you need now, at any cost.