Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Level 4.....then what? |
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Ella Fitzgerald
Valued Member Joined: January 15 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 586 |
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Posted: February 09 2006 at 6:33am |
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Ok, I'm struggling with trying to predict what our world will be like when a level 4 is finally announced by WHO. I'm thinking it will take 24-48 hours for panic to set in and plan to start collecting my last minute preps during that time. I will shop in the middle of the night to prevent contact with crowds. I'm really struggling with when I should pull my kids out of school and when we should start confining ourselves to our house. Any insight, wisdom, predictions is greatly appreciated. Obviously level 4 is the next 'official' step so as my fellow avian flu talk buddies...then what? Edited by Ella Fitzgerald |
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Truth be told I ask those same questions to myself...and since we do not know how everything will be going..we will all have to do what we feel is right at our own pace and time set... Preps are an ongoing thing here..and I will try not to have to do to many last minute things,but also want to look like the paniced throng..so as not to stick out...and it will also deepend on how WHO handles the level change... My kids will be a top priority..and will be pulled the minute this has gone H2H..proof positive(I have the feeling it has,but since there might be a cover-up..wel time will tell). Start confinement i would say when your heart tells you so...don,t depend deeply on the media and go with your gut instinct...you are in the know and part of the loop..you will know long before the panic hits... |
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libbyalex
Adviser Group Joined: December 20 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 795 |
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I have the same questions and no answers. Part of me thinks folks won't panic until later. How many times have you seen people preparing for a snow storm or hurricane at the very, very last minute? When do we stop working? Inevitably, we will feel it's time to stop working and pull our kids from school before the rest of folks do. Hmmm.
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We decided as a family to allow 24 hours to pull together once the H2H picks up. It's still not found here in American, maybe that should be the triggering factor...when it's here? Your kids are precious, schools are very contagious, just pull them out when the virus is confirmed here. Maybe inform the school of your plan so they understand that your kids will be home-schooled. Ask the school what their plan is? Do they have one? I read schools will close, but when will that decision be made? I don't have kids, so I haven't looked closely at what is planned. I agree that you should go with your gut. You are prepared and informed, I vote better to be a little early than late. |
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elbows
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 06 2006 Location: United Kingdom Status: Offline Points: 339 |
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A problem is that whilst it is better to be a little early rather than late, if you are too early then it will cause a lot of problems too.
For example it was tempting to go into emergency mode last May when things started getting more scary in China, but its now clear that would have been way too early and all stockpiled supplies would be long gone by now. I guess many people think we should already be at level 4. Im inclined to agree. So will WHO wait till we should be at level 5 before even declaring the phase to be level 4? For me I will get last minute supplies and implement lifestyle changes when things look like they are at level 5, regardless of what WHO reports. And I do not believe we are at level 5 yet. Even if there was more sustained H2H transmission in China in the past, it looks like they have stamped it out for now, or at least mostly contained H2H spread, otherwise it would already be global in humans by now. |
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Probably the best way to judge this would be to watch our politicians.............if we hear reports that they've gone into seclusion or they start giving speeches and interviews with a mask on, then it might be a good time to hole up. |
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That's the problem - the local high school, by law, has a complete loss of credit for 10 'unexcused' absences. Unfortunately, if we guess wrong, and the AF is not sickening people locally, the false alarm will cost a years worth of school since AF worry is not considered an excused absence. Seems petty, but it is a conundrum - all the preparing and acting for the end of the world only works if the world ends...otherwise it screws up life royally. How to walk the line?
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I don't think we need to worry until level 5. Or until we start getting reports of sick people here in North America. I think the Tv will quickly get involed and we'll have lots of news. I hope anyways.
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I don't think the US will really even notice Level 4. Most people will probably only start noticing at Level 5 and then, probably only to buy extra milk and bread. Truth be told, the vast majority of people don't act until action is forced upon them. ie: your neighbors and co-workers are sick. Uh-oh. To act prior to VISIBLE threat, especially like this, where you need to commit some real time and money on things that ultimately may be a complete waste (or such that at it takes years to use up) is completely against most peoples nature. They'll wait. We'll be panicking (or at least, fighting panicking and checking and rechecking our plans for holes) and going out of our gourds, but they will most likely just be very worried and hope the government will tell them where and when to go for their shot.
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How do you think WHO will announce the level 4....do you think they will just slink into their site and change it..or will it be all over the news...opinions please... |
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Angel
Valued Member Joined: December 08 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 346 |
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I don't think there will much reaction from the general public if the level moves to 4. The majority will never even know it has moved or "why" it has moved.
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Angel
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I think the public here will not worry/panic until BF is in the US. When the first human case is announced, that will be the time to go shopping.
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I agree, until then it'll get treated the same as it's now. But when the panic sets in oh boy. I think Who will change is quietly
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Tired
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 13 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 170 |
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If WHO decides to move it up to level 4, the average person would have
no freakin clue, IMO. A large amount of people in the states
probably doesnt even know what BF is exactly.
When people are dropping dead on the sidewalk in front of their homes, THEN they will wonder what is going on! Sad, but unfortunately true. |
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Better to be safe than sorry.... |
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Well...as they say...they will be using the police as their guides whether everything is ok: If the gold line on thier uniform pants is vertical - everything is fine. If the gold line is horizontal - it's trouble outside.
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Hello. I believe only when we hit level 5 with cases in the us will there be any real noticable knee jerk reactions from the public. However as the level rises to 4 small fragments of the public will, well, probably join this site, like I did and prep in earnest. More folks with many of the same items in their grocery carts will happen overnight (or at night) . There will be a higher stress level from the most at risk population. There will be more petty crimes and domestics and "EMS nursing home calls" will rise You will see more union Firefighter/Law Enforcement stickers on cars at the bulk food stores and gun shops. And officials will blow it off yet quietly stockpile. As far as bugging out or hunkering down (what a stupid term) ... timing is really the key. Too early and it's red flag season on you. Too late...bad thing. I have no timeline personally. I agree with using your gut feeling it's worked for me in the past before bad things happened and now is no different. The reason for the slow public awakening is that I have found that the press and people in general will suspend their own gut feelings to follow the lead of the local elected folks. In my county in Florida I sent an email to the county commissioners last week asking about prep. Here is what I got in reply, un edited except the county name. "The "county" isn't actually doing anything as it is not our responsibility. However, the XXX County Health Department, which is a division of the state and poartners with XXX County is preparing in collaboration with the state.
Sincerely, XX"
Apart from the informality and spelling (only partial criticism from a bad speller too) Not very comforting even in the level 3 stage. But it will keep the public calm, some say too much so. I agree.
One last long winded item, I was in SAMs club just today and noticed a larger than normal bulk and multicanned foods section than last week. Longer shelf life and good prices. Interesting huh?
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Oh yes, silly me for thinking the schools have a plan!!!! I asked my mother's doctor about the bird flu and he pretty much cut me off and said 'there is nothing we can do about it'. I asked him for one year of her perscriptions, and he gave me three months worth. Very interesting though; for a severe pain condition she has, he slipped her 9 months. I'm not a mom, I don't know how I would handle this. I was pretty freaked out yesterday and wouldn't have been able to sleep without knowing I had those last few items. Again, don't just prep for the bird flu, prep for EVERYTHING. Maybe as this get closer to your country (I'm in the US) just pull them out then. I really sort out the safe or sorry....if your kids loose credit a year of school??? Or if your kids are exposed to BF??? Just scary times we live in...maybe the parents here can help devise of plan of when to choose to keep the kids home? |
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Tired
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 13 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 170 |
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As for when to decide to keep the kiddies home from school, I am going
to rely solely on my gut feelings. I sure as hell am NOT going to
wait until they announce school closures!
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Better to be safe than sorry.... |
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I agree with Stormriderfla, it'll happen slowly, as more people wake up to this. In the meantime I hope it will give me enough time to stock up
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meewee
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 595 |
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I wouldn't wait for school closures either...I for one won't be there serving food I will have left once it hits the US! Meewee |
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God Bless us all!
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swankyc
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 11 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 314 |
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Aodhan, spot on. Americans tend not to notice some things until they literally explode. Ella, I think the problem with waiting until the middle of the night once things explode is that half of everyone else on the planet will be doing the same thing. |
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I'm not afraid, I'm paranoid. Dont talk too loud, they are listening.
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stardust
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 21 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 224 |
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I don't think that most people even know what WHO is and what they do.
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"Prepping is Power"!
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steve 101
Adviser Group Joined: February 07 2006 Location: New Zealand Status: Offline Points: 138 |
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very few people use their initiative. They would rather die than do something that other people arnt doing. Conforming is very important to the vast majority of the population. More important than life. I think that they will not declare level 4 or 5. Keep you ignorant and you dont panic.If you havent got all your supplies in now i would suggest you get them. Stick your grains and lentils in the freezer overight to kill weevils and eggs. Preserve eggs. Rub them with parafin oil and store point down. Should keep for 6 months. Anybody any idea if you can preserve fertile hen eggs. I have done them as above and will need to be thoroughly washed with detergent before incubating. I suspect that there will be very few of our feathered friends left anywhere in a few months. Finally can we all pray for all those people and birds and animals in Africa. |
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RicheeRich
Valued Member Joined: February 08 2006 Status: Offline Points: 203 |
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I think that most Americans don't care what the WHO level is at this point. Since all of the deaths are happening in other countries, it's not our problem, right? A more important milestone might be the first American citizen dying from H5N1, regardless what WHO says or does. When it does happen, it will probably be from bird-to-human contact, which will be dismissed by our government as insignificant, since only the human-to-human spreading can cause pandemic conditions. As long as they can get away with feeding us this line, things could remain pretty tame, but I'm not counting on it. I am betting (planning around) that this "First Dead American" milestone will be the trigger that will motivate sufficient numbers of Americans to start taking action, and then we will start seeing the shortages, irrational behavior, and other stuff we have been discussing all over this message board. By the way, if you want to see how this stuff has ALREADY started affecting the U.S., take a look at the stock market charts for Tyson Foods (symbol TSN) and read the fine print in their latest quartly report !! |
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gypsybeach1
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 03 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 57 |
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one way to tell if local people are dying is to check to
local obituary pages. Even if the media isn't doing any stories on bf, the obits reflect the number of people that died in the area. Most people have their obit published withing 3 days of dying. If it spikes, watch out. tammy |
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swankyc
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 11 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 314 |
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true story from back when we had that spy plane downed in China. Radio station I used to listen to was doing "moron on the street" interviews and like 9 in ten idiots didnt know the country that had the plane. People were saying Australia, Canada and other nonsense liek that. Never underestimate how ignorant people can be. |
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I'm not afraid, I'm paranoid. Dont talk too loud, they are listening.
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CountryGirl
Valued Member Joined: February 03 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 30 |
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Oh I think things will happen if the level is raised to a 4. But I think it will be done fairly quietly and behind the scenes to avoid a panic. I think many international companies especially those that have facilities in Asia and China that have plans in place. I think airports will be taking temps of all that arrive from affected parts of the world. I think there will also be shoe disinfectant baths like you saw done with mad cow, I think it was mad cow. This will be when corporations start shelling out some money and I also think this is why WHO wants to be real careful before they raise the level as false alarms will be costly and have some major ramifications. Remember some of these corporations have already done the SARS thing in some branches of there business. A level 4 means start getting things ready and put some precautions in place. This is just my opinion or perhaps my hope.
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Country Girl
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Corn
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1219 |
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Retiredcopper Quote Probably the best way to judge this would be to watch our politicians.............if we hear reports that they've gone into seclusion or they start giving speeches and interviews with a mask on, then it might be a good time to hole up. Don't look now
Edited by Corn |
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Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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