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Bird flu may slash Dow by 10%? I think like 50%? |
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gnfin
V.I.P. Member Location: California Joined: December 05 2006 Status: Offline Points: 1364 |
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Posted: January 14 2007 at 9:36pm |
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not for long.... the roaring 20's came after the 1918 pandemic.
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and 11 years later the stock market crashed and the depression lasted until WW2
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and here are the rest of the Markets interesting ...
Milestone Highs and Lows
Like most other stock market indices, the Dow undergoes periods of general increase and general declines or stagnation. A bull market is a term denoting a period of price increases, while a bear market denotes a period of declines. Wall Street generally considers a bear market in session when the main stock market index is more than 20 percent below its all-time high. By this definition, as of the close of 2006, the Dow will enter a bear market if it sustains a fall below the 10,000 point milestone, which it last touched in April 2005. There are two types of bull markets. A secular bull market is a period in which the stock market index is continually reaching all-time highs with only brief periods of correction, as during the 1990s, and can last upwards of 15 years. A cyclical bull market is a period in which the stock market index is reaching 52-week or multi-year highs and may briefly peak at all-time highs before a rapid decline, as in the early 1970s. It usually occurs within relatively longer bear markets and lasts about three years. The following are the secular bull and bear markets experienced by the Dow since its inception:
On October 3, 2006, the Dow achieved new record closing and intra-day highs for the first time in nearly seven years. Later that month, the index closed above 12,000 for the first time (October 19), and stayed above the milestone to set record weekly (October 27) and monthly (October 31) closing levels. While some experts might consider concurrent record highs in the near future on the DJIA and the Dow Jones Transportation Average as Dow Theory confirmation that the bear market ended in 2002, the depressed state of the technology market compared with 2000 may leave that a matter of dispute. It is notable, however, that both the tech-laden NASDAQ Composite and the broader S&P 500, while not yet at all-time highs, both achieved six-year monthly closing highs concurrently with the DJIA on November 30, 2006. |
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doabirds
Adviser Group Joined: June 27 2006 Status: Offline Points: 54 |
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And yet people keep buying already hyper inflated stocks with zero worries. Actually a pandemic known by the people for what it really is ot government lies would slash the dow by 30-40 percent. They know this so no developed country will report problems until its obvious. By then the wealthy oligarchs will have protected their portfolios. When it falls it will fall harshly for days on end or the feds will close the market like after September 11th. My advice regardless of a pandeic o not is to sell all paper investments and hoard hard currency, not dollar bills.
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gnfin
V.I.P. Member Location: California Joined: December 05 2006 Status: Offline Points: 1364 |
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If pandemic comes Dow down.It will destroy the dollar period.
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gnfin,
That is a pretty strong statement, can you provide links or supporting docs to verify your concerns. A potential pandemic is certainly a time to be conservative from an investing perspective but not time for stuffing your mattresses just yet with dollar bills.
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cap1
Adviser Group Joined: June 05 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 45 |
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I don't agree with everything this author says in the article hyperlinked below, but he appears to have done some research on the effects of the 1918 flu pandemic on the stock market and it may be a basis to start a current pandemic effect projection. I appreciate that there are many differences in our markets and economy, including the staggering amount of leverage and creative financial devices such as derivatives today which could dramatically exaggerate market moves. Nonetheless, this research suggests a temporary drop of around only 2% in the 1918-1919 market which quickly recovered. Interesting. http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={76CCCE81-5403-497A-BC87-E55B67BA9443}&siteid=mktw&dist=
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cap1
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gnfin
V.I.P. Member Location: California Joined: December 05 2006 Status: Offline Points: 1364 |
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Market will tank.
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gnfin
V.I.P. Member Location: California Joined: December 05 2006 Status: Offline Points: 1364 |
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To you sir possibly 50% of the worlds popalation may die according to Dr. Webster. He says theres a 50% chance of a pandemic,and 50% chance it will kill half the worlds population?What do you think of your report now?
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Legacy
Valued Member Location: Ohio Joined: April 20 2006 Status: Offline Points: 329 |
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Uh...like Cruiser said, would you please provide links to supporting data for this statement? My sense is that this is just your opinion, in which case we respectfully request that you state it as such.
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I do everything my Rice Crispies tell me to....
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gnfin
V.I.P. Member Location: California Joined: December 05 2006 Status: Offline Points: 1364 |
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My opinion.
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FLA102052
Adviser Group LOCATION: FLORIDA Joined: January 04 2007 Status: Offline Points: 100 |
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Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. Markets "always" survive!
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FLA102052
Adviser Group LOCATION: FLORIDA Joined: January 04 2007 Status: Offline Points: 100 |
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I posted this (THE PARAGRAPHS BELOW) about a week ago and caught some flack for it. This recent posts by: gnfin - are a perfect example of what I am concerned about, and really the only thing "wrong" with this website.
WE MUST HAVE PEOPLE DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN FACT AND OPINION!!!!!!
From THE BIG PICTURE thread of last week:
THE ISSUE: The mixing of opinion and speculation (in some cases just plain crazy ideas) with the dissemination of “HARD NEWS FACT” blurs decision and negates planed actions so, so dangerously - especially in a time of national calamity such as we will see with H5N1.
And it eventually blinds a successful strategy, especially as events (and unforeseen problems) begin to speed up and move more rapidly each day - as we move toward the actual event.
The only reason I am interested in this "policy" issue here in this blog, is that this new “blog-medium" offers blessing if it is used to provide solid information in the midst of havoc, or – this medium could be the "actual" cause of creating said chaos and havoc - by seemingly providing misinformation as FACT.
This website may be the only voice of reason and information for us and for many - in the worst case. And, it is unregulated, which is great, but maybe some basic, fair and agreed to (by us) ground rules – at least as to dissemination of "hard News" as apposed to opinion - would be useful to some - if not all fo us.
This without any doubt will be a prudent call – especially if the pandemic rreally hits.
MESSAGE: Please seperate fact from fiction or opinion - in your posts!!!!
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gnfin
V.I.P. Member Location: California Joined: December 05 2006 Status: Offline Points: 1364 |
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Theres no way a market will survive this.
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FLA102052
Adviser Group LOCATION: FLORIDA Joined: January 04 2007 Status: Offline Points: 100 |
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just an ignorant fool.
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gnfin
V.I.P. Member Location: California Joined: December 05 2006 Status: Offline Points: 1364 |
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The stock market didnt survive during the 1918 pandemic ? Abe Lincoln came back as a penny?The market was killed during the great depression.Im sorry for you you feel that way,are you a stock broker? Whats your profession? The markets did come back but most lost everything first....
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This whole thread is a bit insane, to compare today with 1918 you may as well compare it to Roman times when they counted gold coins on an abacus. If you guage any investment strategies on any information further than 20 years ago, it is time for a new stock broker. In fact anything you read in the paper or on the web is old news as far as todays stock market is concerned and you will be way late for the early show if you make investment decisions based on anything you read on the web let alone here. The only investment strategy here is cash and lots of it stashed away to buy yourself out of a jam when SHTF.
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pspiegel
Valued Member Joined: May 17 2006 Status: Offline Points: 73 |
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gnfin, forgive me, please, but I'm becoming tired of the ad hominem attacks and unsupported, inflammatory statements. I suspect others on this forum are becoming tired of them as well. Would you please keep a little more balance? In any disaster, whether war, pandemic, depression, natural disaster or whatever, those who best survive are the ones who keep their perspective, don't panic and think calmly. Your posts (188 in about 6 weeks!) suggest that you might consider working on that aspect of your preparation. BTW, I expect that this post will set me up for a wall of flames. Spare me, please. For that matter, spare all of us. This is just a polite suggestion and request. |
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pspiegel
Valued Member Joined: May 17 2006 Status: Offline Points: 73 |
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On a more constructive note, gnfin, history shows that economies, however hard-hit, rarely die, and that savvy investors can survive, and even thrive in, crashing markets. You're a financial professional. What are your recommendations if/when a pandemic hits the economy?
To put it another way: Let's assume the sky will fall. How do we prep for it? |
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Invest in yourself people. Invest in yourself. You owe money you better pay it off.
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Exactly - Financial preparations should be one of the most important
aspects of your preps . While there is no sure fire formula for safe investing in these circumstances might I suggest the following ... - At the start of a pandemic gold related stocks are most likely to rise. That is gold mines etc. If you need to be in debt you could use this rise to pay-down your debt at the start of a pandemic. - During a Pandemic some stocks will still do reasonably well. Stocks related to the supply of food , sanitary products , energy utilities etc. - Some stocks may even prosper - Medical diagnostic services , private hospitals , suppliers of medications , on-line service providers etc . - Some stocks are much less dependent on Day to day economics That is companies that have a long term perspective , for example - Biotech companies . Stocks to avoid - Retail sales , Companies that lend money , companies that are heavily in debt , airines , group entertainment. Please add to the above list , suggestions welcome . ( so go for it gnfin , here is you chance to show your stuff ) |
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gnfin
V.I.P. Member Location: California Joined: December 05 2006 Status: Offline Points: 1364 |
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? good question... |
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Gnfin, I don't know anything about annuities but investing in insurance before what I imagine wil be the biggest insurance pay out in history sounds risky to me. Don't you think many insurance companies will declare bankruptcy? What would happen to your investment in that case?
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Scotty
Adviser Group Joined: March 06 2006 Location: United Kingdom Status: Offline Points: 846 |
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I don't know what the unemployment rate was in the great depression. I don't know how far the Dow Jones fell. Can you help me on this gnfin?
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VtDoc
Adviser Group Joined: March 31 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 240 |
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gnfin, First you state that the market will lose 50% of its value, then later you say 90%, then still later you say 100%. That's a whole lot of evolution of opinion (about an area in which you are a self-described expert) in less than 2 days. Then the personal attacks and insults start. The pattern of your posts is clearly designed to get your post-count up, and a lot of statements have a very distinctive troll-like quality to them.
The fact of the matter about this issue (as you correctly state) is that it is largely based on opinion. However, a whole lot of financial experts, who are willing to go on the record, have a vastly different projection of the outcome from yours. This doesn't necessarily make it more likely to occur their way, but an opinion based on a well-reasoned and well-explained scenario gets me more on their side of things than on yours.
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gnfin
V.I.P. Member Location: California Joined: December 05 2006 Status: Offline Points: 1364 |
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I help people.. |
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My thoughts, you are all right, each opinion at this point is correct since we really don't know how bad the pandamic will be, we just know it's coming. If the death rate is low, the stock market will be damaged slightly, it the death rate is high, much more damage and could be shut down. The thing we are looking for is not dollars stuffed in mattresses, or certificates we can paper the wall with. What we are all looking for is a safe place where our hard earned money will be safe and will have as much or more value after this ends as it had before. Any suggestions? |
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Scotty
Adviser Group Joined: March 06 2006 Location: United Kingdom Status: Offline Points: 846 |
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My information is as follows:
Dow Jones fell by 80% in four years, unemployment was roughly 27% and G.D.P. fell by 25%. Most people remained in work. It is now generally accepted that the depression was in part a correction of an inflated stock market and this this was severely exacerbated by the U.S. government's monetary policy. The markets were starved of cash and the adherence to the gold standard deepened and prolonged the problem. It seems unlikely that any government will use this tactic again. Next time they will print money and inflate the economy. |
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gnfin
V.I.P. Member Location: California Joined: December 05 2006 Status: Offline Points: 1364 |
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No comment. |
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Glow
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 07 2006 Status: Offline Points: 242 |
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Buy low ,sell high....best time to buy is when everyone else is selling in a mad rush. But first and foremost, have your debts paid off and have your preps(food, water, hard cash, masks, gloves, etc) in place!!...After that if you do have "some" extra money wait and watch...when you see a mad rush of selling and prices start crashing you then buy. Then sit back and pray for the best(if you make money it is good, but pray foremost to survivie.)....my plan is 100% isolation...I think that will be the best bet of survival.
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gnfin
V.I.P. Member Location: California Joined: December 05 2006 Status: Offline Points: 1364 |
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How will you be buying if no one is working,and everyone is in isolation?
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Glow
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gnifin, you buy ...you must "catch that moment"...careful monetering of the media...TV media comes somewhat a bit behind from electronic news...electronic news is preferable since it is usually more timely. Timeing is of most importance....also, I'm more apt to very careful in not going overboard...don't try to get greedy...it could cost you. When the stock market last started tanking, I got out around 40% of my investments and put them in real estate ....two years after that real estate started going up up and up...I said to myself "these prices can't continue"...and as we can see real estate is starting to slow down...I got out of one home 18 months ago and I can say it was a great deal.....so, timing and researching is key...but in a case as this bird flu, first comes your life and that of family and friends...so make sure your money go first to all your preps...then sit and watch....and read, read, read......through the gathering, and sorting of information coupled with right timing is how money can be made.
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gnfin,
Not everyone will be in isolation and I believe those in strict isolation will be the minority. Businesses and the Financial institutions in particular have prepared extensive contingency plans to address their capabilities to continue to function and operate even at greatly reduced employee levels. I know our company is fully prepared to keep going at full production capability but we will enforce very strict "social distancing" protocols not only for the employees but customers, delivery people etc. The world will not screech to a halt when a pandemic does evolve. There is a lot of information already addressing this topic in the business continuity section of this forum.
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gnfin - if insurance companies such " as Allianz hold $1.40 in reserves "
as you state , could you please advise us in what form that money is held for example - cash , goverment bonds , shares ? . |
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Both sides are speculating. I tend to agree with gnfin that the market will tank. How much? Whose to guess. However, it is just as much speculation to say that the market will not tank. How much risk can you afford?
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gnfin
V.I.P. Member Location: California Joined: December 05 2006 Status: Offline Points: 1364 |
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Reserves.
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Captivate
advanced Member Joined: December 14 2006 Status: Offline Points: 24 |
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Insurances companies have all their money tied up in stocks, bonds, other interest and dividend earning investments. It is their predominant source of income. They had much more trouble with the dot com stock marker bust than they did with Katrina, which hardly affected earnings (insurance companies are very good at not paying claims - things like the swell of water created by a hurricane flooding your house is NOT covered, even though you pruchased and paid dearly for a policy prominently labeled "Hurrican Insurance". Neat, right?)
A pandemic, for life insurance companies, would be a double whammy, a presumably dropping stock marker mixed with much higher than predicted claims. In my view, life and health insurance companies in large part, will just close their doors. Health insurance also assumes an average level of sickness that will greatly increase, something like 100 times higher even in a mild pandemic.
Altho the casuality insurance example has given me pause. Could health insuranc find a similar loophole for H5N1 and not pay any claims? Plus, the fact is much of the USA care system (at least ER) is already 100% utilized, so that CAN'T cost anymore. A limited # of ventilators nationally etc. also limits their potential payouts for their use. Since we import everything, loss of available medicines of all kinds, antibiotics et. al., will save them money, plus the fact there will no way to perform heart bypasses, cancer sugeries, transplants, stroke operations or treatments, chemotherapy, kidney dialysis, many other expensive treatment costs that will be saved (along with the close to 100% death rate of these cases without care removes ongoing costs too!). Its possible the medical insurers will experience an INCREASE in profitability during this period. They will lose most paying premium customers, but if the investments are well chosen (growth stocks in caskets, vaccine manufacturing, etc.) , the companies could come up rosy! They sure won't pay anything out on triage care on a cot in a parking lot, the treatment the vast majority of flu (and any other critical care need) will get. So, no payout on the regular medical care treatment costs, no payout on bird flu (if they can exclude it), jackpot! The bird flu payout will be low, anyway.
Predicting the stock marker is not clear.
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Is a tank a crash?
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gnfin
V.I.P. Member Location: California Joined: December 05 2006 Status: Offline Points: 1364 |
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safe |
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gnfin
V.I.P. Member Location: California Joined: December 05 2006 Status: Offline Points: 1364 |
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Learn
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$140 per $100 of what ?
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gnfin
V.I.P. Member Location: California Joined: December 05 2006 Status: Offline Points: 1364 |
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cash..
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Gnfin ,
This is confusing . Annuity claims over what period ? I point out that in an earlier post you stated the figure to be " companies are required to have such as Allianz at $1.40 per hundred in reserves." Not $140 per $100 . Would you clarify these points please. |
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Glow
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 07 2006 Status: Offline Points: 242 |
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Whatever tanks , resurges.....that has been the history of the stock market....the foolish are the ones that buy when things are going great and stock prices are threw the roof....these same people are the ones to sell at the first sign of any trouble...they don't research, and analyze the information..they are just "bandwagon" people....they follow the other sheep......sad but true...the prudent know that when these "bandwageners" start to sell, that soon after prices fall and that is when they come in and buy...just don't get greedy.....never have all your eggs in one basket.
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