Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
2 dead (Jakarta Post says BF) & 2 more si |
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Posted: March 02 2007 at 11:10am |
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Candles,
Makes you wonder how many Dengue fever cases are actually H5N1. Dengue has seemed to be out of control in Asia over the last couple years. Dengue is nasty by itself without being mixed with bird flu.
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Candles - Thanks , In a rush again today , so I will keep it short .
I have copied ( or will try to copy my post across to the Indonesian news blackout thread - because I think thats were it belongs ) . |
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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2006/07/27/headlines/headlines_30009688.php Here is one of the H5N1 and Dengue cases , July 2006. Three blood tests by Phitsanulok Medical Science Centre had previously been negative for bird flu. The teenager's blood count showed he had dengue fever before yesterday's final test also confirmed H5N1.
Public asked to cooperate after bird-flu victim dies
A 17-year-old man from the northern province of Phichit has died of bird flu to become the country's first victim of the virus this year.Caretaker Prime Minister Thak-sin Shinawatra criticised the family of the victim for concealing the deaths of their chickens from livestock authorities. Public Health Minister Pinij Charusombat said yesterday that a laboratory test of a phlegm sample confirmed that the teenager was infected with the deadly H5N1 strain.
It was Thailand's 15th death from the virus since its outbreak in 2004. The last confirmed human case was recorded last December with the death of a five-year-old boy from Nakhon Nayok.
Pinij said the victim, who died on Monday in Phichit Provincial Hospital, was reported as using his bare hands to bury dead chickens before he became sick on July 15 with symptoms similar to those of avian flu.
Three blood tests by Phitsanulok Medical Science Centre had previously been negative for bird flu. The teenager's blood count showed he had dengue fever before yesterday's final test also confirmed H5N1.
On Tuesday, the Department of Livestock Development (DLD) said the H5N1 virus had been detected in poultry in Phichit. |
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Hi Ross experts predict dengue will be as far south as Sydney by 2010 .Your question . Has Dengue become more fatal or is misdiagnosis occurring ?
More fatal for sure follow link , this is a classic read . a more severe manifestation on second exposure is characterized by abnormal vascular permeability, hypovolemia and abnormal clotting mechanisms; fatality as high as 40-50% . Watch India this summer .......... They have several different strains going , if you get hit 2nd time its not good ... and in this report they warn lab techs for infection , several have happened ....
One man that died last year had both dengue and H5N1 .I will look for the post ...
MATERIAL SAFETY DATA SHEET - INFECTIOUS SUBSTANCES
SECTION I - INFECTIOUS AGENT NAME: Dengue fever virus (DEN 1, DEN 2, DEN 3, DEN 4) SYNONYM OR CROSS REFERENCE: Dengue fever, breakbone fever, Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), Dengue shock syndrome (DSS) CHARACTERISTICS: Spherical enveloped virion 40-50 nm in diameter; single-stranded, positive sense RNA genome surrounded by an icosahedral nucleocapsid; Flaviridae (Flavivirus) SECTION II - HEALTH HAZARD PATHOGENICITY: An acute febrile disease characterized by the sudden onset of fever for 3 to 5 days, with an intense headache, myalgia, arthralgia, retro-orbital pain, anorexia and rash, symptoms are usually self-limiting; dengue hemorrhagic fever, a more severe manifestation on second exposure is characterized by abnormal vascular permeability, hypovolemia and abnormal clotting mechanisms; fatality as high as 40-50% |
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Other diseases being called Dengue Fever ???
The article posted below is over a month old , but interesting because it says there has been 120% increase in the percentage of people dying from Dengue since Jan/2006 . Not an increase in the actual number of Dengue cases but an increase in the percentage who die by 120% on the base month of Jan/2006 . The figures are a bit confusing because they relate to different areas but what is , or should be common to all areas is the percentage of people dying . Has Dengue become more fatal or is mis-diagnosis occuring ? Year/Month Dengue Deaths Deaths Percent Cases Percentage Increase 2006 Jan 18941 192 1.02 % 0 2006 Dec 5400 77 1.43 % 40% 2007 Jan 4862 75 1.55 % 52% Most startling is the figure given for West Java . 2007 Jan 1889 42 2.23 % 120% The article says that the increased death rate is due to people seeking medical help later. Given the early stage symptoms similarities with Bird flu that does not sound very plausible to me . Interestingly if we assume that the true death rate from Dengue is in fact the same as it was in Jan/2006 that would mean that in West Java approx people 22 died from some other disease but were mis-reporteded as Dengue in Jan/2007 .
75 Deaths From 4,862 Dengue Fever Cases In Indonesia In Jan Alone By Mohd Nasir Yusoff JAKARTA, Jan 30 (Bernama) -- A total of 4,862 dengue fever cases with 75 of them ending in the patients' death have been recorded in January alone in Indonesia, according to the Health Ministry report. The cases occurred in 14 of the country's 33 provinces with the special region of Jakarta registering the highest figure, Dr Erna Tresnaningsih, the head of the ministry's directorate of animal-borne disease control, said. Jakarta has the highest number of dengue fever patients, followed by West Java, Central Java and Lampung on Sumatera Island, she said. She said in December 2006, a total of 5,400 dengue fever cases were reported in 28 provinces leading to 77 deaths. In January 2006, the number of cases reached 18,941 in 33 provinces and leading to 192 deaths, she said. The health ministry had taken several measures to reduce the rate of fatalities from the disease that always spread ahead and after the rainy season through the aedes aegepti mosquito. "The key to its prevention is the environment and the people. If the environment is free of pools of water which can be used by the mosquito to breed and the people maintain environmental health, the disease is surely more controllable," she said as quoted by Antara news agency Tuesday. She admitted that efforts to control the disease had not yielded the desired results because public participation was still relatively low. Meanwhile in West Java, a total of 42 people have died in the outbreak of dengue fever in the province since early this month. The province recorded 1,889 confirmed cases of dengue fever between Jan 1 and 29, Head of the Provincial Health Office Dr Yudhi Prayudha said, adding that the number of deaths rose sharply from only 27 in the same period last year mostly because the patients sought medical treatment only at a very late stage. |
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The military will set up bird flu treatment centres at two army hospitals to ensure wider access to medical care people infected with the virus, the committee said in a statement. Any level changes yet ??????
Indonesian military to help fight bird flu
Fri 2 Mar 2007 11:43:14 GMT
By Fitri Wulandari |
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Source: United Nations Radio Hi just posting update for Jakarta . Date: 01 Mar 2007 Situation in Jakarta back to normal after heavy floods
The UN office responsible for coordinating humanitarian affairs-OCHA-says the flood recovery efforts which are still continuing just got a major boost from a private individual –Saudi Arabia’s Prince Alwaleed bin Talal bin Abdulaziz Alsaud who donated nearly $300,000.00. OCHA says the donation will help fund clean-up activities, as well as the provision of food, basic supplies and health services in hard-hit areas. |
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kparcell
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This story of the infections that is linked above continues to be available at this link and the link can be found in the e-archives of the Jakarta Post. However, the story does not appear in the printed paper and is no longer linked from the online version. The story of the policeman's death has also dissapeared - it is not in the online version for that day or in the weekly roundup - and originaly was buried on the city pages, preventing distribution outside of Jakarta including the affected communities.
The blackout continues. update feb 28: bird flu reports now linked from national news in past online additions |
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kparcell
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Here is link for Jakarta Post story above
http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailnational.asp?fileid=20070227.G08&irec=7 This is that paper's first infection news in more than 2 weeks other than report of policeman's death, but perhaps not only infections. These infections are not obviously directly connected to previous cases, and the testing agency remains national. |
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kparcell
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There is a story that the fellow died just 2 days after his chickens, which suggests a common source, and here is everything the Jakarta Post has to say today about BF today:
.......................................... Bird flu Sunday, February 25, 2007 I was looking to make an art work that connected me to my Global Issue -- bird flu. So I decided to choose eggs because chickens are the center of this virus. As a result, I made an egg shape in the wood and I had it cut out. Inside, I put another six eggs that say "Bird Flu" in English, also translated into Laotian, my native language, and Indonesian (flu burung). It felt great to see my art work as part of the JATI exhibition and I will take inspiration from it for my future artwork. -- Chatuphone Philavong (Tuta), Grade 10 ....................................... |
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Kparcel - The policeman was actually from
the Subang area not Bandung . Which is a bit more to the east of most of the previous cases. But was hospitalized in Bandung. * Jakarta * Subang * Bogor * Bandung More precisely he worked as a Policeman in Subang and lived in a small village which I would expect is nearby. |
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kparcell
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Here is the same link recently posted about suspected BF death of police officer.
http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailnational.asp?fileid=20070223.G04&irec=3 Midas has already supplied text on that Policeman's death thread. I'm adding the link here to highlight the info for those following these updates on this potential cluster and news blackout. This is the first death and first BF news reported from Indonesia since February 11 and is from same city, Bandung, as previous 2 deaths, which were very similar: fast. Fast is probably good because less time to infect others, but the persistence of this virus in Bandung is consistent with H5N1 evolving to be more easilly transmitted from birds to people. The Jakarta Post has placed this story on the City pages - off the front page. |
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kparcell
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kparcell
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How to back-date a weekly update for a news blackout that started February 14: February 14? What February 14?
http://www.thejakartapost.com/weekly.asp ...just slip those days quietly into the previous week. There. See? No Birdflu here :) You see any bird flu here? http://www.thejakartapost.com/weekly.asp?startdate=2/13/2007 [the jakarta paper added the stories after this was posted] |
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kparcell
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Judy, here is a second source, from a report today, confirming that global capacity is likely no more than 500 million doses, which would cover 250 million people. Also, the State of California's practical estimate is that 6 months after pandemic onset we would expect to see enough vaccine for 1% of the population per month.
http://www.in-pharmatechnologist.com/news/ng.asp?n=74359-world-health-organisation-avian-flu-vaccine-pandemic |
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kparcell
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Here is another major story from Jakarta Post about plans to relocate all bird markets out of the capital...no mention about how people will purchase poultry after that. This may be the response to that paper's recent editorial about lack of bird-market regulation, and is also interesting because it continues the latest national trend to report nothing about current outbreaks, even already-known outbreaks.
http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailgeneral.asp?fileid=20070219134430&irec=5 Here is the text: ................................................................................................ Jakarta bird market to be relocated in 2008 JAKARTA (Antara): The Jakarta Administration has planned to relocate all bird markets in the capital city to Cibubur, East Jakarta, in 2008 in an anticipation of bird flu outbreaks. "The process of relocating bird markets will be conducted in stages. We are now still waiting for the issuance of a regional regulation concerning the plan. The work will also not be easy as it involves a lot of people," Edi Setiarto, head of the Jakartafishery, husbandry and marine services, said on Monday. The Jakarta Administration has planned to relocate bird markets and poultry farming to Cibubur, East Jakarta. In an effort to stop bird flu virus from spreading, the capital city has banned back-yard farmings of chickens, ducks, geese, pigeon, and quail in human settlement areas. The city authorities will also rearrange locations of poultry slaughter houses. Jakarta at present has two official poultry slaughter houses and around 1,200 non-official ones. A draft regulation on the matters is currently being discussed by the Jakarta regional legislative council (DPRD). ............................................................................................................ |
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Judy
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Kparcell: "..... there would be enough for 250,000 people globally and Indonesia would get none. " If that figure is correct, a whole lot of people on this earth would get none.
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If ignorance is bliss, what is chocolate?
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kparcell
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Here is a link to a new Reuter's report on the most recent stats from the WHO
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L19217514.htm The WHO has Indonesia with 63 dead of 81 infections, while Indonesia's Health Ministry put it a 65 dead a week ago -their last report - and was testing four more suspected infections at that time. In related threads on this forum, latest reports say Indonesia has agreed to resume sharing with the WHO when vaccine is guaranteed. http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/18/news/flu.php Last weeks reports had Indonesia only asking that the WHO not distribute Indonesia's samples and claimed that such a guarantee of vaccine had already been secured through a private deal with a manufacturer. Could it be that when that manufacturer discovered that WHO had given away the samples they had purchased, that deal dissapeared? Looks like we have a BF news blackout in Indonesia, not merely a witholding of samples. Here is the last report from Jakarta Post, an interview with a health ministry official 2 days ago: http://www.thejakartapost.com/Archives/ArchivesDet2.asp?FileID=20070217.B07 It's a good read, closing with the statement that if every manufacturer in the world was forced to produce BF vaccine, then there would be enough for 250,000 people globally and Indonesia would get none. |
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kparcell
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one week later, no news for 5 days on test results...
...but here is an interesting and recent Jakarta Post commentary that points out that nothing is being done about illegal poultry trade, creating crowded conditions that they say result in lower immunity among animals http://www.thejakartapost.com/Archives/ArchivesDet2.asp?FileID=20070216.F08 It's well known that all of the backyard chicken ranches have been shut down, probably putting more pressure on the factory farming. Well, we try, and perhaps we've carved another year out for science to seek vaccine. But are all those dozens and perhaps scores of human infections that aren't happening reducing possibilities of H5N1 combining with seasonal flu to produce a transmittable bug that most of us have quite a bit of immunity to? Are we breeding a stronger bug? |
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kparcell
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Hi Ross
I'm sorry if I've seemed to pick on you. I think your exasperation is entirely understandable, and I sincerely admire your willingness to consider the possibility that you're being a bit unfair, but I'm sure that poverty has led to BF flourishing in Indonesia and that country's reluctance to share info, not indecency. |
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Kparcel ...
We have never asked for their savings , just the decency to allow us to defend ourselves from the Bird flu they have allowed to flourish within their jurisdiction. Bad behaviour is bad behaviour whether you are poor or rich . After saying that , their government is much better than many around the world . And full marks to them for maintaining a form of democracy . all the best . |
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kparcell
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Indonesia is the fourth largest country and the third largest democracy, but has less money (47b) than the US will spend this winter "exporting democracy" to Iraq. I'm going to stop now before I say something unkind, however I'm sure it's inappropriate to attack the poor for not giving you their savings.
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This is the country that claims to be so poor they .....
1. Can't properly compensate owners of confiscated/culled poultry. 2. Threatened to not to share Bird flu samples with the world for financial reasons. And has just annouced the purchase of Fighter Jets from Russia. Indonesia forex reserves rise to $43.3b JAKARTA, Feb 16: Foreign exchange reserves in Indonesia rose by 161 million U.S. dollars to 43.3 billion dollars at the end of January compared with the previous week, according to a central bank report reaching here yesterday, reports Xinhua. Bank Indonesia said the international reserves were predicted to hit 47 billion dollars by the end of the year on estimate of increasing surplus in the current account balance. |
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4,900 cadres prepared to fight bird flu
SEMARANG, Central Java: The Central Java provincial administration has prepared around 4,900 cadres to help fight the deadly bird flu virus. The recruitment of the cadres was conducted jointly with the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) under the Participatory Learning Action program. Tukiman Taruno of UNICEF'S Central Java office said in Semarang Thursday that the program started with the training of five cadres in each regency and city. Each group was later charged with training 28 new cadres in their respective regions. With a total of 35 regencies and cities throughout Central Java, around 4,900 cadres have so far been recruited, Tukiman said. "Under the training program we try to encourage the participation of the public and stimulate their awareness of the danger of the bird flu virus," he said. Due to the high risks posed by bird flu, the program also involved the Family Welfare Movement, the Association of Indonesian Teachers, Nahdlatul Ulama, Muhammadiyah and others. Tukiman said the cadres had been trained in detecting bird flu infections, maintaining bio-security, culling infected fowls and disseminating information to the public. -- JP |
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wannago
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Why is he wearing a mask? These chooks look rather dead
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wannago
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A worker selects chickens before sending them to the market from a poultry storehouse in Jakarta
15 Feb 2007
Source: Reuters A worker selects chickens before sending them to the market from a poultry storehouse in Jakarta January 14, 2007. Indonesia has restricted sharing bird flu strain samples overseas to ensure its people benefit from any vaccine and to stop foreign parties "dancing over the corpses of others", the health minister said on Thursday.
REUTERS/SUPRI |
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kparcell
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Indonesia says it will resume sharing BF samples.
http://www.dogflu.ca/02162007/08/indonesia_to_resume_sharing_bird_flu_samples |
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Sounds just like India a few months ago . Encouraging tourism during the
height of a dreadful Dengue fever epidemic . |
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kparcell
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2 days since last news on this possible cluster, but plenty in the news about Indonesia stressing how tourism is unaffected by BF and about Indonesia refusing to share info with the WHO. By now, there ought to be results on tests of the 4 suspected cases associated with the two recent deaths, but nothing. I'd like to believe that if the tests were positive then Indonesia would say so, but given their concern about tourism it seems likely that if the tests were negative we'd hear about it even more quickly....
I'd like to say "no reason to panic", but sometimes that makes people even more nervous :) |
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kparcell
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The WHO is probably out of loop in Indonesia at the moment.
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pheasant
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is the who still doing confermations in indo?
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The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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kparcell
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Thank you, BabyGirl. The rough translations provide names and regions:
2 dead in Bandung 1 dead in Tangarang 4 suspected/hospitalized Bandung (3 from Garut, 1 from Mangunjaya) Other reports: None of these are confirmed BF by the WHO 2 of dead are confirmed BF by Indonesian Health Ministry, 2 of sick are reported neighbors of one confirmed dead. That's 5 very recent cases from the village of Garut - 2 dead, 3 remain hospitalized. |
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The only other place where we might get a clue is if it starts to spread in the hospital. I often read where people are concerned about the hospitals being overwelmed with patients, but on the other hand, do you think it would be wise to even go near one for treatment. What if you only have the normal flu and go to a hospital and certainly if it is h2h, it's going to be there. Would going near a hospital be wise? What about a doctor, wouldn't he or she be in line to be spreading the h2h flu? Once again, i feel the smart thing is going to be isolation, lots of preping, plenty of water and food, a good gun and plenty of ammo and being proficient in its use. Keeping a low profile and taking care of your own if they get sick. Hopefully with the isolation your illinesses will be just a normal cold or headache. Nothing drastic, don't shovel the snow so you don't have a heart attack, don't drive anywhere - no auto accidents. If the heat is out, dress in layers, stay warm.
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I think the biggest problem with Indonesia or anywhere H5N1 is endemic in the local animal population is determining if everyone was exposed to the virus via an animal or another person. Until cases are simultaneously in the hundreds of cases of people, we won't know if it is H2H or not.
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What is that BabyGirl, 7 suspects, 3 deaths and one released? Is that only today?
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Metrotvnews.com, Bandung: the Hospital (RS) Handsome Sadikin Bandung again treated the patient suspect bird flu from the Mangunjaya Village, the Arjasari Subdistrict, the Bandung Regency, West Java, Ahad (11/2). The patient named Kiki was 6.4 years old. Kiki was treated in isolation space, because his condition resembled the bird flu sufferer. Beforehand, he could undergo the maintenance in the Soreang regional Public Hospital, the Bandung Regency. The previous day, Dase Suherman, the patient who was suspected mengindap bird flu from the Village Bantar the Magnitude, the Mekar Sari Village, the Ngamprah Subdistrict, the Bandung Regency, was permitted to come home. Dase was stated healthy, after the doctor did not find the bird flu virus in his body. (/BEY) |
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Metrotvnews.com, Garut: A patient suspect bird flu that was treated in the doctor's Hospital Slamet, Garut, of West Java, Ahad (11/2), finally had died. The patient was nine years old had the initials S in the critical condition when the first time being brought to the hospital. The patient it was known suffered the sign of the illness that was similar to bird flu like the high fever, breathless and coughs. The patient from the Earth Village was suspended, the Sukarame Village, the Garut Regency, that could be beforehand treated in the Bayongbong Community Health Centre. However the patient had finally been reconciled to RS Dr Slamet because of the condition for his health continued to descend and to it was worried about be affected by bird flu. S did not have the story of direct contact with the poultry. However, S it was known often gardened with his father. When gardening, they often used fertiliser from the waste of the poultry to make the land fertile. Up to now, the team of the doctor did not yet know related the assurance of positive casualties was infected by the bird flu virus. Now, the sample of casualties's blood is currently researched in the laboratory in Jakarta. In Tangerang, a resident suspect bird flu from Balaraja, Tangerang, Banten, Ahad the night, also it was reported died. This patient could not be in fact treated intensive in the hospital. The body is currently brought came home his family to be buried. (YUL) |
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kp thanks for your persistance. great updates.
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kparcell
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CIDRAP reports 2 dead from BF, 4 sick:
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/news/feb1207indonesia.html |
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