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OT: looks like tough times ahead for Stock Market?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 07 2008 at 6:57am

2001.... crash...NASDAQ 5000 to about 14000.....
we survived.  some who hung on...too long, had a harder time.

Tough times?   true, but ... many people who sold high are in a cash position now....like 20% for conservative types.  They are looking forward to the market going lower. 

Then they will buy back many more shares than they sold.  $$$







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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GreenTeam Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 07 2008 at 10:17am
What are you guys doing with your savings? How are you handling the down market?
 
We finally decided to take money out of our mutual funds in our retirement savings and put it into the plan's money market fund. We already had some in bonds and we left it there.
 
We have a friend who got out of the market last October. How did he know to do that? I now wish we had gotten out sooner. We are down about 20%.
 
I've always been optimistic about the market, and that's why I was reluctant to move money out of the market sooner. We have about 20 years to retirement. But I have a feeling, and have been reading, that this is not your typical downturn. 
 
But now I feel unsure about selling when the market has been tanking. They always say buy low, sell high. Well, we were too optimistic to sell high. We've basically just sold low due to panic. But the market may go lower yet, and if so we'll be glad we got out.
 
Thoughts? 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GreenTeam Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 07 2008 at 10:18am
Just wanted to add that we are still "buying" with our retirement plan contributions.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 07 2008 at 1:58pm
We finally decided to take money out of our mutual funds in our retirement savings and put it into the plan's money market fund.
............................................................................................

I am 20% "cash" in a US treasury MMMF, money market money fund.  The rest is stock in  something people have to have every day... 
P&G etc...says Cramer...he made a bundle. hedge fund, and got out.  Best is to start young and put in old solid companies...talking late 1800's...turn of the century... If a good stock gets low people will buy it back.
Such a game it is.  Best to leave it I imagine if a person has 10 or more yrs to retire.
Would not want to give much thoughts to people who need to retire right now.  Some think worst scenario is 3- 5 yrs to be good again.  Who knows?


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 07 2008 at 2:01pm
you are right, I never sold low...rode it out and it soared back up after 5 yrs.  Can't say that for all stocks though.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GreenTeam Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 07 2008 at 2:20pm
After seeing today's carnage, I'm feeling better about selling yesterday!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 07 2008 at 2:29pm
What people don't realize is the point spread during just one day...some stocks rose to near 80 before lunch and then sold 5 points lower at the end of the day.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote LaRo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 07 2008 at 2:41pm
Well all I can say is don't believe anything you read and only half what you see.  Yesterday, you saw a miracle at the end of the day with the stock market shooting back up, now read this article and you'll learn more of what you didn't see.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/10072008/business/the_75_minute_market_rescue_132403.htm
r we there yet?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 07 2008 at 4:12pm
well... you would be amazed at what they do with huge blocks of stock....they have unspoken rules of up and down.  Institutions own giant blocks of stocks and ...Banks own themEvil%20Smile
called gettin capital.... I'm sure they have a cooler name.Cool
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 07 2008 at 4:36pm
whole lotta swappin going on...


Equity options are the most common type of equity derivative.[1] They provide the right, but not the obligation to trade a quantity of stock at a set price at a future time.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 07 2008 at 4:40pm
this will give you and idea of the very close relationship between men in government and men in banking...if you can tell them apart you are better than I am :)
.............................................................

In the current system, private banks are for-profit businesses but government regulation places restrictions on what they can do. The Federal Reserve System is the part of government that regulates the private banks. The balance between privatization and government involvement is also seen in the structure of the system.

Private banks elect members of the board of directors at their regional Federal Reserve Bank while the members of the Board of Governors are selected by the President of the United States and confirmed by the Senate.

The private banks give input to the government officials about their economic situation and these government officials use this input in Federal Reserve policy decisions.

In the end, private banking businesses are able to freely run a profitable business while the U.S. government, through the Federal Reserve System, oversees and regulates the activities of the private banks.

wikipedia




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote waterboy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 07 2008 at 5:27pm
BUY GOVERNMENT BONDS OR ANNUITIES ONLY WITH INSURANCE COMPANIES WITH BIG RESERVES. ALLIANZ HAS THOSE RESERVES....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 07 2008 at 6:20pm
hi... could we all agree that perhaps our lettering should be smaller than one half inch?  :)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 07 2008 at 7:24pm
Symbol
Last Trade
16:04 07 Oct
NYSE
Only Close
07 Oct 08
ChangeVolume
AZ$ 11.4011.40-0.35 (-2.98%)983,595
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote waterboy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 07 2008 at 7:32pm
OK SMALLER THAN A HALF INCH IS OK.SIZE OF POSTS ARNT GOING TO MATTER BY FRIDAY?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 07 2008 at 8:20pm
Friday will come and go and people who sold high or got into something comfy like cl or pg or jnj or pep  ...things people use every day, or FDIC insured accounts.... will be ok according to the experts.  This is where they put their money they say.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MelodyAtHome Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 07 2008 at 10:48pm
Mary, what does this mean...
cl or pg or jnj or pep  ? Thanks Oh and when does the FDIC start covering up to $250,000 on bank accounts?
Melody
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Emergency Preparedness 911
http://emergencypreparedness911.blogspot.com/
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 08 2008 at 4:30am

hi Melody, good question...here is the info on the FDIC Insurance... seems Suze Orman is giving them an assist in getting the word out on the main site-

http://www.fdic.gov/

....................................................


This personally does not feel like a comfort to me.  I myself would move anything not previously insured as if this extra insurance was not available.  It is good in that it gives people time
(over a year) to consider and protect their money by moving it in a thoughtful fashion Because-

...the basic deposit insurance limit will return to $100,000 after December 31, 2009.


over 1 year ...time enough to forget.

.............................................................................................................................................

Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 Temporarily Increases Basic FDIC Insurance Coverage from $100,000 to $250,000 Per Depositor

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE


On October 3, 2008, President George W. Bush signed the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, which temporarily raises the basic limit on federal deposit insurance coverage from $100,000 to $250,000 per depositor. The temporary increase in deposit insurance coverage became effective upon the President's signature. The legislation provides that the basic deposit insurance limit will return to $100,000 after December 31, 2009.

"This temporary increase in deposit insurance
coverage should go far to help consumers maintain confidence in the banking system and the marketplace," said FDIC Chairman Sheila C. Bair. "And clearly the public's confidence is key to a healthy and stable economy."

By letter dated October 3, 2008 (Financial Institution Letter 102-2008), the FDIC advised insured institutions they should inform depositors that
the coverage increase is temporary and effective only until December 31, 2009.

The legislation did not increase coverage for retirement accounts; it continues to be $250,000.

The FDIC has authorized insured institutions to use this statement to augment bank signage and customer information materials as of October 3, 2008:

On October 3, 2008, FDIC deposit insurance temporarily increased from $100,000 to $250,000 per depositor through December 31, 2009.
For an overview of deposit insurance coverage reflecting the temporary increase, go to http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/financial/2008/fil08102a.html.

Bankers and depositors also should visit www.myFDICinsurance.gov and use EDIE the Estimator to learn more about FDIC insurance coverage. Deposit insurance information is available on the FDIC's Web site at www.fdic.gov/deposit/deposits.

# # #

Congress created the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in 1933 to restore public confidence in the nation's banking system. The FDIC insures deposits at the nation's 8,451 banks and savings associations and it promotes the safety and soundness of these institutions by identifying, monitoring and addressing risks to which they are exposed. The FDIC receives no federal tax dollars – insured financial institutions fund its operations.

FDIC press releases and other information are available on the Internet at www.fdic.gov, by subscription electronically (go to www.fdic.gov/about/subscriptions/index.html) and may also be obtained through the FDIC's Public Information Center (877-275-3342 or 703-562-2200). PR-93-2008

source-

http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2008/pr08093.html
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 08 2008 at 4:39am
Mary, what does this mean... cl or pg or jnj or pep  ?
.....................................................................

those are stock symbols for

Colgate-Palmolive

Proctor& Gamble

Johnson & Johnson

Pepsi

type any stock symbol in here ... to get info on it.

http://finance.yahoo.com




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GreenTeam Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 08 2008 at 9:01am
I am wondering what average people like me, with retirement money in mutual funds, are doing right now during the crisis? Did you sell and go to cash months ago? Or are you selling now? Or are you riding it out? Thanks!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Evergreen Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 08 2008 at 9:12am
Cramer: It's a Worldwide Crash
Jim Cramer
10/06/08 - 11:49 AM EDT

This post appeared earlier today on RealMoney.

Here it is, the dawning of the selloff that will finally put us at levels where ... we will sell off again.

For two years the credit markets have been submerged under central bank happy talk and a sense that the worries were about inflation. You can see why in the outlines of the institutions that are failing now.

The problem is the Europeans got stuck fighting the inflationary war that ended in July. Rates are ridiculously high in Europe vs. the crunching of debt that is happening and will continue to happen.

In our country, the "Fundamentals are Sound" group at Treasury, and the "Whip Inflation Now" group at the Federal Reserve couldn't switch fast enough either.

But boy, are they great at public relations. There has been remarkable awe at how well Treasury, the Fed and the FDIC are handling the crisis.

It seems very misplaced. Some of it is pure economic ignorance. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke studied the Depression, or so they say, and knew more about how to stop it than anyone. Actually, he knew less than anyone, and he and his merry band of governors and presidents presided over the deflationary destruction of Western finance with a bias toward -- are you ready? --inflation. Yes, that's still their bias. We were able to jump-start the economy in 2003 with rates as low as 1%. But our rates are twice that now even though we are in a deflationary spiral, not an inflationary one. We should be printing money left and right here but Bernanke is Hoover and we all know it now.

There's another sainted figure, who I guess must call the media all the time to burnish his image. That's Tim Geithner, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York president, who is supposed to be the eyes and ears of the Fed. We learn from The New York Times Monday that Geithner was the genius behind the "not too big to fail" decision to keep Lehman out of the Federal Reserve system. That was brilliant. We had rescued Bear, but not twice-its-size Lehman, perhaps because the watchdog/press hound Geithner didn't understand the complexity of Lehman's book, or because it was time to mete out punishment to the worst banker on earth, Dick Fuld.

And I thought the guy had a handle on it. I was fooled, but unlike Geithner, I would have had to call Fuld a liar, and you can't do that without subpoena power and a bunch of sources who would betray him. I knew only the people who surrounded him, and they told me everything was fantastic, just a little slow.

Of course, we know the truth now. The Fed has been put out to pasture, a victim of being theoretical, not practical, an organization that simply didn't take seriously those of us who warned them in person and on TV. What did they think, we made it up for ratings? Is that what they thought? You think I, a reputed bull, want to go on TV and scream that they knew nothing? I would rather recommend Colgate(CL Quote - Cramer on CL - Stock Picks), but given the crisis it sure seemed worth waking them up.

Even as late as the summer, the Fed thought for sure the price of iron and copper meant more than the implosion of housing-based finance.

Now along comes Sheila Bair and Hank Paulson, who alternately want us to believe that everything is sound (with public pronouncements that the worry is misplaced) and that there is a list of obscure banks that might have to be taken over.

Then Paulson comes to the Capitol and says the truth, that the Western world of finance is going to break, and Bair seizes Washington Mutual and tries to seize Wachovia(WB Quote - Cramer on WB - Stock Picks), no doubt to save Citigroup(C Quote - Cramer on C - Stock Picks), which could have risen, done an equity offering and joined Bank of America(BAC Quote - Cramer on BAC - Stock Picks), JPMorgan(JPM Quote - Cramer on JPM - Stock Picks) and Wells Fargo(WFC Quote - Cramer on WFC - Stock Picks) as the new titans of finance.

Of course, either the FDIC doesn't know the tax law changed to make it so if Wells bought WB it wouldn't have to pay taxes on ordinary income for years, or was oblivious to the imminent passage of TARP.

This, plus the disintegration of Lehman, which then left Morgan Stanley (MS Quote - Cramer on MS - Stock Picks) and Goldman Sachs (GS Quote - Cramer on GS - Stock Picks) in the hands of the shorts, was too much for everyone, and now no one lends to banks and it makes no sense to them, and no one wants commercial paper because it makes no sense to them.

Which is where we are this morning, in a worldwide crash that will leave us with gigantic institutions that we have never heard of, with balance sheets that are ridiculously large that must fall, and a hedge fund community that has lost control of its asset base.

And in this moment we are supposed to be buyers?

I say let it fall without me. I say keep selling industrials unless they yield more than 4%.

I say it is no longer in the hands of the central banks. It is in the hands of rational people making rational decisions to get out before more institutions fail, more hedge funds liquidate, and still lower prices are upon us.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.
235365 - Energy follows thought.   As you think, so you are.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 08 2008 at 1:54pm
I am wondering what average people like me, with retirement money in mutual funds, are doing right now during the crisis? Did you sell and go to cash months ago? Or are you selling now? Or are you riding it out? Thanks!

Did you sell and go to cash months ago?
....................................................................................

some did even 2 weeks ago...

Cramer says if you need money in the next few yrs you could sell some and put it in an FDIC insured account.  you don't need to sell everything as the market will recover.

you can listen to his plans...

click on the videos
http://www.thestreet.com/video/index.html#1841494204

...........................................................................................................

hi... I'm not in mutual funds.  I pick my own few favs and keep an eye out. 
..............................................................................

here is some info from an expert...

a respected investment advisor who put all their money into mutual funds. Now their funds have lost a lot of value. My parents haven't sold, so technically they haven't lost any money yet. But it breaks my heart to see them so worried. What should they do to recover from this mess?

Suze: Mess is exactly the right word for what can happen when you put all your eggs in one basket—and that basket happens to drop. Between March 2000 and January 2002, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 53 percent. Mutual funds, which are for the most part made up of stocks, dropped with it, and now millions of Americans are looking at potentially serious shortfalls in their investment accounts. So you and your parents are certainly not alone.



just cut and paste this in the address bar at the top...

http://www.oprah.com/article/omagazine/living_suze_o_mess

http://www.oprah.com/slideshow/oprahshow/20080918_tows_suze

or

Protect Your Savings

http://www.oprah.com/article/oprahshow/20080918_tows_suzeresources





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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Evergreen Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 08 2008 at 2:52pm
Run, Don't Walk From Treasuries
Christopher Grey
10/08/08 - 01:06 PM EDT

"Americans love a winner. Americans will not tolerate a loser ... . The very idea of losing is hateful to an American." -- General George S. Patton

Why would any rational investor buy a long term U.S. Treasury today? This may seem like a strange question to ask right now.

Historically, at least since World War II and considering the dominant position of the dollar and the U.S. economy, Treasuries have usually been the ultimate safe haven investment in troubled times. These are troubled times, possibly the worst since the Great Depression, so why would a rational investor want to avoid Treasuries?

Here are a few reasons. In just the last month, the U.S. government has basically taken on nearly $7 trillion dollars of additional liabilities. I arrive at this number by adding the debt of Fannie Mae (FNM Quote - Cramer on FNM - Stock Picks) and Freddie Mac (FRE Quote - Cramer on FRE - Stock Picks), plus the rescue package, and the expansion of Fed's balance sheet. Our gross domestic product (GDP) is about $13 trillion, so that's an enormous amount of debt to add in just one month.

Further, the government has now explicitly increased bank deposit insurance, provided an implicit guarantee to trillions of dollars of money market funds and is in the process of now buying hundreds of billions of dollars of corporate commercial paper.

All of this means that the supply of Treasuries hitting the market to pay for all of this is going to be enormous. Also, the dramatic increase in future liabilities, without any offset in increased revenue, of the U.S. government reduces the creditworthiness of the U.S. as a borrower.

This is already reflected in higher premiums for credit default swaps, which are insurance against a future default, on U.S. Treasuries. Do you really believe this is end of how much money the government is going to spend to fix the financial system and prop up the banks? Nobody knows how big this problem is or how much more the government will need to spend or guarantee to fix it.

If the U.S. is the strongest and most powerful country in the world, why wouldn't investors always want to buy our bonds? Unfortunately, America's dominant position in the world, both politically and economically, is increasingly being questioned.

This is not the first time we have been through a rough patch like this in the post-World War II period. A similar period of declining American influence and credibility occurred in the late 1970s following the end of the Vietnam War, Watergate, the OPEC oil shock, rampant domestic inflation, and culminating in the Iran hostage crisis.

How did Treasuries perform during that period? The yield on the 10-year Treasury went from under 7% in 1977 to nearly 16% in 1981. During that period, Treasuries performed so badly compared with other investments, including stocks, real estate, commodities, municipals and corporate bonds, that they were sarcastically termed "certificates of confiscation."

Obviously, the actions of Paul Volcker, who was Fed Chairman at the time and substantially increased the fed funds rate, contributed to the selloff in Treasuries.

However, Volcker was taking those actions in an attempt to restore credibility in the U.S. financial system. His policies were more of a painful remedy, rather than a cause, of the problem. In fact, Treasuries were already performing badly before Volcker even started running the Fed. The underlying problem was a crisis of confidence in the U.S., not Volcker's policies.

What about the asset deflation that everyone keeps talking about? Shouldn't that keep inflation down and support Treasuries? There is, unfortunately, not a consistent and direct link between asset deflation and deflation in consumer prices.

Everyone already knows this is true in reverse. We had tremendous asset inflation in the 1990s and falling inflation. Since everyone, except commodity producers, benefited from that disconnect, few people questioned it.

While it is true that falling asset prices reduce demand, which does have a deflationary impact, there is a lot more to the inflation story than demand. As Milton Friedman said, inflation is a function of monetary policy and money creation. The more money printed, the more inflation you're going to have.

In fact, with the combination of asset deflation and excess money creation, the logical result is even more price inflation than if assets were inflating.

The reason is that the money being created needs to go somewhere. If it isn't going into assets, it will go into goods, services and commodities, all of which feed into reported price inflation. If our currency continues its decline, that will also increase inflation, especially for anything that's imported, regardless of what's happening with assets deflating.

Even so, isn't inflation today always going to be dramatically lower than in the late 1970s and early 1980s because of global competition keeping wages down? Unfortunately, this view is based on two faulty assumptions.

The first is that a big part of the decline in reported inflation during the past 20 years has been the result of more and more creative ways that the government has simply redefined what inflation actually is. Think of this sort of the way President Clinton said "That depends on what the definition of 'is' is."

Seriously, the government has gone to great lengths, using "hedonic" adjustments, changing the basket of goods and services for the inflation calculation, using "owner's equivalent rent" instead of housing prices, and even excluding certain items entirely that have rapidly increasing prices to reduce the reported inflation numbers.

The second problem is that global competition is no longer only a deflationary force. Wages have been rising rapidly throughout the developing world. Also, demand for goods and services in the developing world are exploding. This has put upward pressure on energy and other commodity prices.

Even based on the government's inaccurately low reported inflation figures, the recent headline numbers have been in the 5% to 6% range. Analysis by several independent economists and market watchers has shown that if inflation were calculated similarly to the calculations used during the early 1980s, our headline inflation numbers would be over 10% right now. That compares with a 10-year Treasury yield of around 3.5% -- before taxes. Buying a security that appears to guarantee a substantial loss is not my idea of a rational investment.

With stocks crashing, even the best corporate credits suspect, and cash yields also very low, what can a rational investor who is concerned about safety and some income buy right now? For an investor concerned with safety and income, I would focus on relatively short term AA- and AAA-rated municipal bonds, GNMAs and also the debt of Fannie and Freddie. Municipal bonds are probably the best value right now that they have ever been.

Historically, due to their favorable tax treatment and very low probability of default, municipal yields have been lower than Treasuries. Today, their yields are substantially higher than Treasuries mostly because of turmoil in the insurance markets and on Wall Street, both of which are heavily involved in the issuance, sale, underwriting and guarantees of municipals.

GNMAs yield substantially more than Treasuries and are backed the U.S. government. Fannie and Freddie debt is also now more explicitly backed by the U.S. government and yields substantially more than Treasuries.

What about diversification? Shouldn't Treasuries be part of any balanced portfolio? PIMCO's Bill Gross, who is considered by many people to be the best bond fund manager of all time, doesn't seem to think so. He has been selling Treasuries to buy more Fannie and Freddie debt.

Nevertheless, if you must own some Treasuries, you should probably buy TIPS, or Treasury Inflation Protected Securities. Although these don't really protect you from inflation because the government is reporting inaccurately low numbers, they are probably going to perform better than Treasuries that are not inflation protected.

The bottom line here is that U.S. bonds are only as good as the confidence investors have in our country and our government. That confidence has been shaken and will probably take years to restore. I am an optimist about this country, so I believe we will eventually get back on track.

However, in the short term, I believe that it is prudent to be very cautious. I agree with Seth Glickenhaus, a 94-year-old money manager who lived though the 1929 crash and the Great Depression, who believes that the U.S. has become soft. We have become more concerned about comfort than productivity. We have worshipped at the altar of immediate gratification and easy credit for decades.

Hard work and savings were too often replaced by borrowing and spending money we didn't have to buy things we didn't even need. These trends need to reverse if we're going to get out of this mess. This is a painful period for everyone.

Nobody likes recessions, but we can think of it this way -- the U.S. rose to become the greatest country in the world directly following the Great Depression, one of the worst periods in our history. Sometimes, it is in the darkest days that people, and countries, find their character and rise to become even better.

One thing that has not changed in all these years is that this nation still hates a loser and loves a winner. It's that kind of spirit that is going to carry us through this difficult period and toward an even better future.

235365 - Energy follows thought.   As you think, so you are.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2008 at 1:08pm
The market is going well under 8,000, and if anyone thinks it will "bounce" off a bottom, well, that ain't gonna happen.   The market will most likely remain flat for several years.   We are approaching truly historical times.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GreenTeam Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2008 at 1:23pm
Wow! By getting mostly out on Monday I've calculated that we've saved ourselves $20k so far this week. Even so, I wish we had gotten out sooner. I wonder what tomorrow will bring?
 
Albert, I hope you are wrong but I fear you are right.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2008 at 1:41pm


They have given 5 years as a forecast for all to be on the up swing.


citigroup is holding at 13.00
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2008 at 1:43pm

Reguardless of the bailout,banks have to tighten credit elgibility.Less loans equals less spending equals less business profit equals stagnant stock market.More jobs will be cut to improve the bottom line.And you can expect less full time jobs,and more temp services being used by companies to lower pay scale and to avoid insurance premiums.

Next the government will tell you all true Americans should be willing to have a minimum wage decrease for the good of their country."That was a joke I hope."
WR
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote quietprepr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2008 at 1:53pm
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

The market is going well under 8,000, and if anyone thinks it will "bounce" off a bottom, well, that ain't gonna happen.   The market will most likely remain flat for several years.   We are approaching truly historical times.
 
It is sad but true. We will probably feel the effects of this for at least the next ten years or so. Depression is looming larger every day. Have you noticed the only thing they keep comparing this to is the Great Depression? Thats because nothing else comes close...
"Learning is not compulsory... neither is survival." - W. Edwards Deming
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2008 at 2:07pm
Fear Grips Wall Street as Dow Plunges Over 675 Points to Below 9000- AP

Stocks plunged in the final minutes of trading Thursday, sending the Dow Jones industrials down more than 675 points, or more than 7 percent, to their lowest level in five years after a major credit ratings agency said it was considering cutting its rating on General Motors Corp. The Standard & Poor's 500 index also fell more than 7 percent.... » read more...



general motors stock fell and it's a reaction to that...and the realization that consumers can not buy... fear grips?  really...they can't wait to buy back at bargain basement prices.

what you see is the sell off at the high....last call
..waiting for the low...in order to swoop in.
a plan to the madness.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote endman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2008 at 5:49pm

If the Market goes down in the last minutes of the day then it’s the mutual funds that do all the selling

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote waterboy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2008 at 6:20pm
Stay whole in cash for the next two months. Dont jump into any rallies. This isnt over folks.Election and earning season are upon us. Earnings look real bad. Futures all over the World are down tonight. It will be a rocky road tomorrow. Stay dilegent.Fixed Indexed Annuities offered through ALLIANZ, Government bonds,t-bills,and cash.The bottom I feel is about Dow 6700??? Beware...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote LaRo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2008 at 6:36pm
the dow closed around 8500 today, so if they want to get off early, since tomorrow is friday, the dow should loose 850 points early in the day so they can close down the stock market
r we there yet?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2008 at 7:56pm
The bottom is going to be a lot lower. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote waterboy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2008 at 8:03pm
You may be right but I think not.If it was to go lower than 6700 were talking a depression and soup lines.Food storage is a good idea. After election things will change.Fear is whats moving this market lower now. McCain should of picked Romney. We wouldnt be here today if Romney was the VP pick. Consumer confidence MOVES markets. There is NO consumer confidence. Cramer has a good following. He said three days ago take everything you need out of the market for five years. Thats everything and more for most of us.We had someone to believe in... It was Romney. He single handedly turned around the Olympics.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2008 at 9:19pm
well it's for sure that financial talk here is popular.  NPR is also very good to listen to.
You can set up your own play list and sit back with a cool beverage...

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=95567816
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2008 at 9:20pm

Jim Crammer's videos are interesting.

http://www.thestreet.com/video/index.html#1841494204

Actually Jim suggested go 20% to cash...  that is fairly conservative.

let's face it, this isn't exactly... trying to time the market.  We knew it was coming.

We knew the market would go low.  Some people will get back in at a nice price.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 10 2008 at 5:38am
If Ford and GM are any indication of what's to come, that would put the bottom at around 1500 - 2000.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote waterboy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 10 2008 at 7:09am
Interesting however they are not a benchmark.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 10 2008 at 8:37am

I can't picture it that low.   true, no benchmark because ...the big corps that do not need
individuals to apply for credit to stay alive... will prop up the market enough to keep it at
oh...

someone please toss out a number :)


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 10 2008 at 9:19am

Your Money

Switching to Cash May Feel Safe, but Risks Remain

 
By RON LIEBER
Published: October 8, 2008

excerpt-

By fleeing for the comfort of safe and insured, however, investors with a time horizon

beyond a few years          (mine are young so leaving it put)

may be doing real damage to their long-term finances. If you’re tempted to make a big move to cash

right now,                 (you're timing it rather late in the game to make $$$)

you're doing something called market timing. It’s an implied statement that you've figured out the right moment to get out of stocks - and will also know the right time to get back in.

Please read article here-
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/09/business/yourmoney/09money.html?ref=todayspaper

.........................................................................................................

otherwise.......
Good Move.


Many conservative people have already sold high... at around 20% of holdings.

Many good stocks have dropped at least 10 points.

Some want to wait and see if they will go down more?

Another 5 points?

So as not to be greedy they won't wait...... too long

to get back in.

Personally I would not sell now at this low point in the market.

5 yrs from now things may be just fine.  So I myself would hold.

Unless I needed a few thousand for something a yr or 2 from now,
then I would sell a ... very little bit.



 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote PrepGirl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 10 2008 at 9:55am

delete

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delete
i answered my last two questions so delete 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote PrepGirl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 10 2008 at 10:11am
ExclamationNukeThumbs%20DownOMG CryCryCryCryCryCryCryCryCryCryCryCryCryCry
 
 
waterboy ...........
stocks dont look good today............................
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote PrepGirl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 10 2008 at 10:29am

Is it time...to think about which is safer ?

I think so.........

 

equals...a piece of paper how much is a piece of paper worth?  (this is a currency not of value anymore} not legal tender been discontinued so it was ok to post here. 1917
 
equals ...a safe investment always worth what its made of.
Folks time to think things over really hard.  Pay down debt.  Save money. In a safe way.
Stock up on food even more so now.  Things don't look to good to me. Now im no expert in the stock market .  But as a layman or regular citizen i dont like what I am seeing.
Take it for what its worth.
My old dad wise who survived alot always said gold is worth its weight.
Paper money is nothing if it crashes.
I think I will listen to dad.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote PrepGirl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 10 2008 at 10:33am
I don't mean to scare people.  But never in my life time have I seen things so bad.
Just to much over spending.  We can't keep up with the debt were in.  Spending needs to stop.  We need to start helping families.  Not big businesses that made bad choices.
Without the american workers and families what is America.  Nothing.
 
Our government needs to help the working families. NOW
 Or should I say all families in need weither they work or not.
Those who live high don't need help ...Like big business excutives
 
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