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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Egypt and Pakistan
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Albert View Drop Down
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    Posted: January 06 2008 at 9:46am

Greetings all.   I'm probably going to be somewhat of the lone voice in the wilderness when I say this, but h5n1 is not currently h2h.   Pakistan seemed to be getting close for awhile, but that is obviously under control.  Egypt was probably not even close to h2h and that outbreak appeared to be b2h cases, which ended a week ago.

You might read on other sites that there are 200 suspected cases in Egypt, but that is 100% not true.  It appears to be more of an attempt to play with the boards in some fashion, but trust me, none of it is true.  This is exactly why we won't work with other sites, we risk being a puppet.  Like I said, AFT is the last honest site around. 

 

For the next few days, we also don't want to post any "translated" speculation news in the News forum so we can keep information accurate, which also includes no Niman posts.  Posting about hundreds of "false" cases can make us look a little silly at this point.  Who knows, maybe some young kids put up a foreign looking website and they're feeding phony news to be translated.  Whatever the case, we ain't playin'.

 

Anyway, winter is also here so we all still need to keep a watchful eye for the next few months.  If h5 makes the jump, believe me, we will all know it and there will be no mistaking it.  

 
 
 
 
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anon54 View Drop Down
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Points: 309 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote anon54 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 06 2008 at 10:18am
Albert I agree, unless there are reports of massive deaths, I'll tend to ignore these other claims.Will I continue to prep yes.Will I panic no. You are entirely correct not to post any of these "reports". Until we hear claims of bodies piling up we can breathe easy.Yes I agree we should keep an eye on this situation.Thanks for keeping things honest.I trust the information on this board and our contributors.
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Albert View Drop Down
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Hi anon54, if anything, this should show us what not to look for.   With an incubation as long as 18 days, the "current scenario" floating around really doesn't fit all that well.  
 
 
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hachiban08 View Drop Down
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Points: 15627 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote hachiban08 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 06 2008 at 11:21am
I'm not really sure how to see the cases as cuz i havent done as much research as ya'll but I'll continue to research and i didnt hear nothing about 200 cases cuz if it was true, they'd had reported that on the telly.
hmm... so some is truths and some if false comments. just have ta kno how to sort them out right?=]
    
Be prepared! It may be time....^_^v
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detpat View Drop Down
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Points: 367 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote detpat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 06 2008 at 2:18pm
panic is always a bad idea anyway.
never underestimate the power of human stupidity
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jacksdad View Drop Down
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Points: 47251 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 06 2008 at 8:02pm
I agree Albert. I don't see anything to suggest H2H, or anything to back up the large number of cases that are being mentioned. When it does go H2H, it'll be more than obvious.
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Points: 770 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Evergreen Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 07 2008 at 11:04am
Thanks, Albert for your voice of reason. This is why I stay with AFT, because you tell it like it is without the hype. Don't need the drama. Just the facts, mam. D
    
235365 - Energy follows thought.   As you think, so you are.
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sassy pants View Drop Down
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Points: 49 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sassy pants Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 07 2008 at 12:26pm
Originally posted by Evergreen Evergreen wrote:

Thanks, Albert for your voice of reason. This is why I stay with AFT, because you tell it like it is without the hype. Don't need the drama. Just the facts, mam. D
    

Thats why he's the SKIPPER of this ship!!!     
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Albert View Drop Down
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Thanks EG.
 
Thank you sassy, this ship is somewhat of a cross between the Ark and the Titanic, lol.       
 
Also looks like the Egypt rumors are ending.  There wasn't one more additional case since the initial cluster a week or two ago.  
 
Like we all already know.  If h5 makes the jump, we will know it, and there will be no guessing about it.   
 
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Agreed Albert.

It's nice to be able to talk about this in a calm, thoughtful, and truthful manner. I get annoyed that people continue to foam at the mouth over translated news (and hourly "commentaries" from that nutjob Dr. Wink). Although I believe it is beneficial to keep an eye out for any alarming stories, for the most part, I believe anything that is "alarming" will show up in the American/English media, which can be considered more reliable and accurate. Why there are people who waste hours a day searching for alarming news on foreign sites, I shall never know.

It also annoys me that there are people who believe so strongly in foreign news that anything contradicting it is immediately dismissed as "wrong". All I can do is roll my eyes whenever, on other sites, as soon as a negative result is reported, it is automatically a "false negative" without second thought.

I don't want to bring up other forums, but as you've mentioned T42 or whoever translates stories from Arabic mentioned a few days ago that ZERO suspected cases she has followed over the past 2 years have turned out to be positive, true H5N1 cases. This begs the question: why do people still panic over these stories, or better yet, believe them at all?

I agree 100%. Despite what some say, if it ever goes H2H, we WILL know about it very quickly. We won't need foreign sites to tell us "it has started".
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Albert View Drop Down
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Points: 47746 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 07 2008 at 9:36pm

Nicely put abc1234.  The problem is that Dr. N knows about the track record of translated news with the zero confirmations, yet he continues to write commentaries to hype them.   Assuming he's reasonably intelligent, this almost seems intentional on his part.  Another problem is that his group has spent the last few years building up his reputation to a point that people now have a blind eye to what he's doing.  

 

Anyway, I don't want to beat this to death, but I also don't think that we should post his commentaries in News for awhile until we can be sure about his agenda at this point.  

 

Good to hear from you abc,

A
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