Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
A thread for potential h2h cases? |
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maryk
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Posted: March 19 2006 at 8:18am |
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10 March 2006 8 March 2006 6 March 2006 1 March 2006 27 February 2006 20 February 2006 13 February 2006 9 February 2006 6 February 2006 2 February 2006 30 January 2006 25 January 2006 23 January 2006 19 January 2006 14 January 2006 10 January 2006 7 January 2006 5 January 2006 |
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northern_mamma
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Government Monitors doctor for bird flu
Reuters, India Sun Mar 19, 2006 12:11 PM IST MUMBAI (Reuters) - A doctor with fever and respiratory problems was under observation in Maharashtra where tens of thousands of birds were culled to contain a second outbreak of avian flu, officials said on Sunday. The latest outbreak -- in backyard poultry in Jalgaon district of Maharashtra -- was the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of bird flu, but it has not infected people so far. However, late on Saturday, a doctor walked into a local hospital and asked to be put under observation, joining a 11-year-old boy with high fever and a history of exposure to dead birds. "The doctor is not from the affected region and neither was he exposed to dead birds, but we didn't want to take a chance," T.P. Doke, Maharashtra's health director, told Reuters. Rest of the story here: |
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northern_mamma
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New fears as Chinese man dies of bird flu
James Meikle and agencies Tuesday March 7, 2006 The Guardian http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,1725057,00. html Health
officials in China were yesterday investigating a man's death from bird
flu in a province where no poultry outbreaks have been reported since
2004... |
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northern_mamma
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China confirms 15th human bird flu caseMar. 5, 2006 at 9:17PM http://www.washtimes.com/upi/20060305-085953-3184r.htm "...Those having close contacts with the man have been put under medical observation by provincial health authorities, Xinhua said. Experts say there is no evidence to suggest that China's bird flu virus has mutated to a form that can spread between humans. |
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northern_mamma
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Azeri official says family may have bird flu 04 Mar 2006 17:38:04 GMT, Source: Reuters This family keeps chickens, but this is probably still worth keeping an eye on. www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L04767284.htm BAKU, March 4 (Reuters) - A top official in Azerbaijan said on Saturday a family of six people could have contracted bird flu, although it was too early to be sure. "The preliminary diagnosis is severe pneumonia but this is a suspicious case," said Abbas Velibeyev, deputy health minister, on ATV television. When asked if the family, which keeps chickens and has seen two children die in the last month, was suffering from bird flu, he said: "there is such a possibility." Azerbaijan, which lies at the crossroads of Asia and Europe, discovered the H5N1 strain of bird flu among wild birds last month. Bird flu has since affected a poultry farm near the capital Baku. |
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[March 02, 2006>
City hospitals on alert (The Nation (Pakistan) Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge)LAHORE, FEB 28 (THE NATION) - The hospitals in the city are already on their guard amidst reports of traces of bird flu in NWFP, arranging to deal any emergency, taking all the cautions in tackling with the patients. The hospitals preparedness, in the face of reports of infected birds, was amply demonstrated when a cloth merchant died here of pneumonia manifesting bird flu-like symptoms at a local private hospital. Rashid Ali, 25, a resident of Gujranwala and the son of a cloth merchant, was admitted to a private hospital on February 26 where he was treated for two days, but died on February 28. "He was fine and talking to us till 12 noon. We left him in the ICU, but at 4 pm, the doctors told us that he is dead. We have been told by the staff that he had died at about 2:15 pm," said Aamir, a close relative of the deceased. He had been kept in complete isolation. The body was put in a big plastic bag while all the staff members were wearing gloves, gowns and masks. Blood samples of the patient had been sent to the National Institute of Health (Islamabad), and the report is still awaited. During the last 11 days, Rashid Ali is the third person of the same family, who had died. On February 17, his 19-year-old brother Sajid Ali had died of acute pneumonia while their mother is said to have died of the same disease on February 24. Abdul Qayyum, one of their relatives, confirmed this. When asked whether the hospital gave any instruction regarding pre-burial rituals, he said there were no specified instructions. Meanwhile, Director General Health Services Punjab Dr Aslam Chaudhry, in a circular to principals and Medical Superintendents of teaching hospitals and EDOs (Health), has said, in order to meet any emergency in case of occurring of the Avian Influenza (Bird Flu) in the province, and make arrangements for the items Zip Gowns (Disposable), Latex Gloves (Disposable), Goggles and Viral Transport Medium (VTM) for the safety of health care workers. OUR GUJRANWALA CORRESPONDENT adds: EDO (Health) Dr Zafar Iqbal Khan Niazi has ruled out the presence of bird flu in Gujranwala, and said the claim of a man stating that his wife and two sons died because of bird flu is wrong. Reportedly, the wife of a local trader Liaquat Ali got flu a couple of weeks ago. Both the mother and son Sajid Ali were referred to a hospital in Lahore where they died within two days. Rashid is also said to have caught the same infection. These deaths have caused panic in Mohalla Faisalabad and nearby vicinities. Liaquat Ali told that after first two deaths, he informed the health authorities about the outbreak of bird flu."But no one bothered to visit the area," he said, adding that doctors did not reveal the real cause of their deaths. However, EDO Dr Zafar Iqbal said the doctors were trying to find out the cause of the deaths, and after their reports, something definite would be said. (THROUGH ASIA PULSE) http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/-city-hospitals-alert-/ 2006/03/02/1424055.htm |
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northern_mamma
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2 siblings die of suspected bird flu in Indonesia
www.chinaview.cn 2006-03-02 13:28:07 (No mention here as to whether or not these two kids were exposed to birds or contracted BF from one another.) http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-03/02/content_4247469 .htm AKARTA, March 2 (Xinhuanet) -- Two children of the same family died recently of suspected bird flu virus at a hospital in Indonesia's Central Java province, a report said Thursday. Hanif Cahya Fitri, 12, died at the Moewardi Hospital in the town of Solo late Wednesday, one day after her brother Nandya Kurniawan, 10, passed away at the same hospital, reported Detikcomnews website. Doctors said the two siblings had developed bird flu symptoms like respiratory problems and high fever. They had been hospitalized for one week, it said. Indonesia now ranks second in global casualties caused by the avian influenza. The World Health Organization has confirmed 24 bird flu fatalities in the country. Enditem |
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northern_mamma
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Oh, good news, thanks. :-)
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I believe they ruled that out later the same day or the next. I'll see if I can find it again
Can't find it , but the theory was that Indonesians kepted cats as house pets in the city. But these turned out to be county homes, so cats where ruled out. It must have been on the newsnowbirdflu |
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northern_mamma
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This was posted elsewhere on Saturday, but it seems timely, given the discussion today re: cats as a potential intermediary... http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2006/s1578301.htm Failed Indonesian bird flu response concerns experts PETER CAVE: Are you seeing mutations in the virus in Indonesia?
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northern_mamma
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(Hold nose before opening this one...) CBS News, Feb. 27 WHO: Human Bird Flu Cases Risehttp://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/02/27/health/main1349539 .shtml "...Almost all human deaths from bird flu have been linked to contact with infected birds. and: "...But in China, it is believed the 9-year-old girl developed symptoms after a visit to relatives in the neighboring Chinese province of Anhui, where a 26-year-old female farmer also developed symptoms "following contact with diseased poultry." Edited by northern_mamma |
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northern_mamma
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Thanks for the positive feedback. I'm so grateful to have found this board.
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Yes thanks NM - I think we're going to have to go with our gut and from these articles, and other BF watchers plans to know when to lock ourselves in. Thanks for all of the research and postings.
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NM you are doing a good job, keep it coming.
Colleen |
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northern_mamma
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This was just reported in the last 20 minutes. I assume these are new infections? 7 more cases of bird flu detected (from Asian Age) http://www.asianage.com/main.asp?layout=2&cat1=1&cat 2=23&newsid=211087&RF=DefaultMain "New Delhi: Seven more cases of bird flu have been detected in Navapur in Maharashtra and Uchchal in Gujarat. " It's very confusing, as there's no detail or date on the article, but according to the newsnow.co site, which updates every five minutes, this was reported at 18:27 today (from India.) NM |
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I guess Dr. Niman's news is why Elbows thinks we still have some time left. Seems like it's a little more out of control with the spread to all countries - guess we continue to....wait.....and watch.....and read....and....and....shop.....wait.....read....
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Corn
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harpmandoodle, sorry meant to say....... because those infected are mostly impoverished. It doesn't get around as fast. .......How's that? just typing in a hurry. fruedian slip? |
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Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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northern_mamma
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This interview with Dr. Niman from last fall seems exceptionally timely. http://www.arcticbeacon.com/20-sep-2005.html Human to Human Passage of Deadly Avian Flu Verified Overseas; World Health Organization Refuses to Acknowledge As True Microbiologist, Dr. Henry Niman, says don't rely on government to protect against Avian flu since it is "playing catch-up" and vaccines are ineffective against new strains. He warns Avian flu is coming and it could be deadly.
20 Sep 2005
"Although there has been much controversy about whether human to human contact has been confirmed in H5N1 cases, Dr. Niman said 15 to 20 clusters have been uncovered overseas and human to human passage of the deadly virus has been known since 2004." |
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northern_mamma
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Five new cases in hospitalIrdiani Mohd Salleh http://www.nst.com.my/Current_News/nst/Sunday/National/20060 226083412/Article/index_html "Health authorities are conducting house-to-house screenings in the affected area and those found with H5N1 symptoms will be admitted for tests," [Health director-general Datuk Dr Ismail Merican ]said. |
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Corn
I cant beleive you just said that you are glad it is poor people and not rich people...!!!! I think you meant that if rich travellers had got it, the authorities would not be able to cover up.... it's the We're just lucky I think needs attention peace |
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Corn
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I would bet right now there are at least 5 hot zones with H2H. India, Indonesia- Java, Mylasya, Middle Africa, Mid East (namely Turley and Iraq) and I'm sure 3 or 4 more. You say Who knows? well who don't? All these false negitives and news that is a day late and a dollar short. All we are fed is a steady supply of government news releases writen backwards like "India says 94 out of 95 test negitive." and so on. This contact with dead bird excuse is getting pretty old. We're just lucky it's been mostly poor people infected and dying in place and not the rich world travelers. = (because those infected are mostly impoverished. It doesn't get around as fast.) |
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Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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Kiwi, The authorities look for H2H first by contacts of a case becoming ill. Any contact who becomes ill at the same time or several days after the first is de facto considered to be exposure from a common source and not H2H. This is more for their convenience than anything else. Why look for problems when H2H would present itself by exponential growth of cases and wouldn't be able to be hidden. Those cases where H2H are apparent even to a casual observer are tested and the genetic makeup analyzed. They are looking for uniqueness. Have changes occurred that make it more efficient in transmission. Hope this helps. SZ |
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kiwi
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these tests that are being carried out on people with flu, and coming up negative to H5N1 - yet are still dying because of respiratory illness maybe due to a change in the original H5N1 virus?( maybe now the BF H5N1 has a cousin so to speak?) so does anyone know how H2H testing would be done? since H5N1 is BF then what is H2H flu called?...........would the powers that be, be quick off the mark to tell us? a few lines out of our local paper dated 25th feb 2006 - waikato times NZ, headline reading, Indonesia lauches war against BF - South Korea, meanwhile, yesturday confirmed it recorded its first cases of BF spreading to humans in 2003-04. There was no explanation for the delay in reporting the results. - AP. |
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northern_mamma
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China sees threat of "massive" bird flu outbreak http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2006-02/26/content_ 524014.htm "...Earlier on Saturday, Xinhua reported that two new human cases of bird flu had been diagnosed in the east of the country. A Chinese girl in eastern Zhejiang province and a woman farmer in neighbouring Anhui province were currently in critical condition, Xinhua cited the Ministry of Health as saying. The woman farmer, who was diagnosed on Feb. 11 with symptoms of fever and pneumonia, had come into contact with sick and dead poultry, Xinhua said. The girl, a nine-year-old from Anji County, had visited relatives who kept poultry but it was not clear how she had been infected, Xinhua said." |
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northern_mamma
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Three Suspect H5N1 Children Hospitalized in Manisa Turkey http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02240601/H5N1_Turkey_Manis a_3.html From Niman: "...A geographical cluster of three patients is cause for concern. More information on symptoms and possible relationship between D.A. and H.A. would be useful." (Posted in News by Rick) |
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northern_mamma
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For what it's worth. (Posted also by Sniffles.) http://www.voanews.com/english/2006-02-24-voa65.cfm
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shrug
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posted on February 24, 2006 11:41:45 am A global flu pandemic cannot be avoided solely by containing an outbreak at its source, because the H5N1 bird flu virus is now so widespread that a form able to spark a pandemic could emerge more than once, say researchers Great idea NM -- keep our eyes on the birdie
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Also note the WHO timeline in no way, shape, or form mentions all of these cases were related. It states 'sporadic' reporting. Very different from the article posted above, even if it is from '05. November of '05 was only 3 months ago...
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From the WHO timeline...Vietnam reports a human case in Nov. 05...so it seems to me as if it NEVER left Vietnam, just not many cases reporting between lulls. Previous human case was July 05...it's had a lot of time to mutate there...as Joe said, we need to keep our eyes peeled here. WHO reports no substantial mutation to support H2H, but sounds like the virus is getting closer each day... http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/Timeline_24%2 002.pdf |
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Spoon
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Yeah... The Vietnam story is dated Jan. 2005.
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It's not so much the apocalypse... but the credit card bills ;-)
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Falcon
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Avian influenza – situation in India – update 23 February 2006 The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare in India has informed WHO that no human cases of H5N1 infection have been detected to date. Tests conducted on samples taken from persons under investigation and their close contacts have yielded no positive results as of today. Testing has been undertaken at the National Institute of Virology in Pune and the National Institute of Communicable Diseases in Delhi. It was not clear if samples from a 27-year-old poultry worker from Gujarat State, said to have died of respiratory disease on 17 February, were among those tested. In India, as in all countries experiencing their first outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza, WHO strongly recommends that patient samples be sent to a WHO collaborating laboratory for diagnostic confirmation. Certainty about the status of human cases in a newly affected country is important for accurate risk assessment. In addition, analyses conducted by WHO-approved laboratories can yield information about the possible evolution of the virus and clues about how the virus may have arrived in the country. Genetic and antigenic studies of circulating viruses also help ensure that work on the development of a pandemic vaccine stays on track. this is dangerous, first they say theres human cases then theres none? So which is it? They're playing with fire and we're going to get burned for it. They know something and I got a feeling they're hiding something |
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Hold on isn't the Vietnam information old 2003/2004/2005 news. They
haven't had any cases since then. Have they? |
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The Vietnamese B2H2H2H was the beginning of a sustained H2H
string. I see the date. Hang on tight, we're getting closer to
the pandemic. It still needs to evolve.
Mild, mild, mild, mild. Keep on saying it, and it may come true. |
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Falcon
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Highlight:
Officials in Ohio have seized chicken meat smuggled from Asia to several restaurants and food stores, and they say they intend to step up investigations in the state. The cases are sounding alarms in the wake of concerns about a deadly bird flu virus that has spread across Asia in recent months. Despite the scare, experts say well-cooked poultry, even if it has been exposed to the virus, is probably not a risk. |
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Falcon
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Summary:
http://www.newstarget.com/004314.html
gee I wonder why they're pushing everyone into coming up with vaccines for humans |
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Sounds like Vietnam is close to sustained H2H with three people people sick in one househould within weeks of each other. They say they killed a duck, but a couple of weeks passed so that would rule out all of them contracting it from the duck. It would be nice to see the outcome of the study of the virus in those 3 patients...our 'pros' on here (Joe, Dr. Niman, Rick) should be made aware of this so they can keep an eye out...
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Posted on Sun, Feb. 19, 2006 India begins mass slaughter of fowlAJIT SOLANKIAssociated PressNAVAPUR, India - Health officials and farm workers in protective clothing began slaughtering hundreds of thousands of chickens in western India on Sunday, hoping to prevent the spread of the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus. Europe stepped up its battle against bird flu as the European Union's top poultry producer, France, grappled with its first reported case of the lethal virus. European poultry farmers said consumption has fallen and caused hundreds of millions of dollars in losses. Germany ordered some birds killed on the Baltic Sea island of Ruegen. The number of deadly flu cases in Italy rose to 16. Indian officials reported a 27-year-old poultry farm owner had died of bird-flu-like symptoms, though tests had yet to determine what killed him. "At this juncture we can only suspect that the cause of his death could be bird flu," Surat district officer Vatsala Vasudev told the Press Trust of India news agency. Workers in Navapur, a major poultry farming region in western Maharashtra state, dumped bird carcasses and gloves, goggles and blue gowns used by health teams into deep pits at poultry farms. Bird flu has devastated poultry stocks and killed at least 91 people, mostly in Asia, since 2003, according to the World Health Organization. Most human cases of the disease have been linked to contact with infected birds. Scientists fear that the virus could mutate into a form that is easily transmitted among humans, sparking a pandemic. Since early Sunday, more than 200,000 chickens had been killed in Navapur of about 500,000 expected to be slaughtered within a 1.5-mile radius, said Anees Ahmed, the Maharashtra state minister for animal husbandry. Poultry farms were closed to everyone but health officials and workers in protective gear. Chicken shops were shuttered. The government has banned the sale or transport of chickens from the area, and checkpoints have been set up to inspect trucks. India exports some $84.4 million worth of poultry products a year to Europe, Japan and the Middle East, and has seen a rise in overseas orders in the past year as countries such as Indonesia struggled to control bird flu outbreaks. "Now countries will shut us out," said Ajit Ranade of the Bombay Veterinary College. Neighboring Nepal on Sunday said it was banning imports of all poultry and poultry products from India, while Bangladesh said it would step up surveillance along its border with India to prevent smuggling of birds into the country. In Egypt, authorities closed the Cairo zoo after six of 83 birds that died there recently tested positive for the H5N1 strain. Health authorities said tests still had not found the disease in humans. Egyptian officials, meanwhile, pleaded with citizens not to dispose of dead chickens, turkeys or other birds by throwing them in the roads, irrigation canals or the Nile River. "More than 90 percent of the cases so far have been found in poultry kept in cages on roofs or balconies of apartment buildings. We ask the people to cooperate and not to dump anything into the Nile, please," Health Minister Hatem Mustafa el-Gabaly said. France on Saturday joined Austria, Germany, Greece, Italy, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine in the ranks of countries with deadly bird flu in Europe. Some farmers in the southeastern French town of Joyeux, where the infected wild duck was found, began slaughtering their birds as a precaution. "I panicked," 64-year-old Gabrielle Josserand said after killing her two geese and eight ducks. "But I chose to act right away." http://www.sunherald.com/mld/sunherald/news/breaking_news/13 907638.htm |
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Falcon
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Turkish government accused of slow response to bird flu as human cases rise
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Falcon
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Suspected Human-To-Human
Disclaimer <> document.write("Email This Article"); Email This Article MainPage http://www.rense.com This Site Served by TheHostPros |
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northern_mamma
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Yup.
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gypsybeach1
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hey, didn't a previous article say that ganesh had no
exposure to poultry and died of "acute respritory distress. and then his mother and brother were admitted with flu symptoms? and now an additional 3 more that were in contact with ganesh. this sounds like a significant cluster. |
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northern_mamma
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Here's another one to watch: www.hindustantimes.com/news/181_1631996,001300820000.htm 8 fresh human cases suspected as culling continues "There are eleven patients now admitted in the isolated ward for suspected bird flu, including eight who were admitted on Monday following door-to-door survey and three others were admitted on Sunday," Munde said. The blood samples of all these people were sent to National Institute of Virology in Pune for testing and reports are expected in three days, he added. The three patients, who were admitted on Sunday, were those in contact with the Ganesh Sonar who died in Surat last week and two of his family members, Munde said." |
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northern_mamma
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Thanks for the feedback, Smaug. Do you mean we should keep this thread going or start a new one? (Doesn't matter to me, I have no sense of ownership about it, I just want to make sure we can all find the h2h info as quickly and easily as possible.)
I guess I'm asking on behalf of the moderator--if you (or others) feel it should be moved or if we should just continue to follow this one. I can see it's getting hit pretty hard with page views so assume there is a lot of interest in it. Not difficult to understand, I guess. (Would just ask if it's moved we port the above messages over so we carry our "tally" with us. NM |
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Smaug
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I agree we should have a separate thread for H2H transmission. With most of the third world having cases it is just a matter of time before a successful mutation of H5N1 occurs.
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