Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
A thread for potential h2h cases? |
Post Reply | Page 12> |
Author | ||||||||
northern_mamma
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 16 2006 Status: Offline Points: 53 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Posted: February 19 2006 at 10:55am |
|||||||
Again, I'm relatively new here but wondering if there is an area specifically dedicated to potential h2h cases so we can monitor them more closely. Here are three I've seen in the past 24 hours: 1) Bird flu spreads, India tests dozens of people
19 Feb 2006 12:57:54 GMT Source: Reuters:
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L1988090.htm "Preliminary investigations by the rapid response teams at Navapur indicate that this patient had no exposure to poultry," a federal health ministry statement said." 2) People's Daily Online China: Bird flu kills Thai boyBird flu kills Thai boy, UPDATED: 10:49, February 19, 2006 http://english.people.com.cn/200602/19/eng20060219_244036.ht ml "The boy died in hospital on Wednesday, Thai Deputy Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakula was quoted as saying. He was not known to have had direct contact with chickens, but investigations are continuing. " 3) Khaleej Times: India to Begin Testing Humans for H5N1, (AP)19 February 2006 "Meanwhile, a scientist said an unknown number of people in the area were reported to be suffering from flu and fever, though there was no immediate indication they had contracted bird flu." (Posted earlier in another forum by a member.) ~~~ NM |
||||||||
stardust
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 21 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 224 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
I think that's a good idea. There are so many stories now it's hard to keep track. Plus H2H is what we are all watching out for.
|
||||||||
"Prepping is Power"!
|
||||||||
Guests
Guest Group |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
Good idea.... we'll see if it has legs.
|
||||||||
northern_mamma
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 16 2006 Status: Offline Points: 53 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
Thanks, that'd be great. I hope we learn that in each of those three cases it was the result of some sort of bird contact; will just have to wait it out I suppose...
BTW, I have a Google News Alert set up for bird flu, it works great and I get many stories emailed three or four times a day. I imagine a number of you are doing the same or something similar. Very helpful to get that news pushed to the inbox. NM |
||||||||
cosmicpixie
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 13 2006 Location: United Kingdom Status: Offline Points: 89 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
i posted this on a thread yesterday- www.who.int/csr/don/2006_02_17/en/index.html IRAQ,39 yr old man died 27ht January after showing symptoms on 18th Jan.He was the uncle of the countrie's first case,a 15 yr old girl who died 17th Jan.He had cared for her while she was ill,BUT did have a history of being in contact with infected birds,SO,it can't be H2H for sure but then there is still the possibility it was.... |
||||||||
northern_mamma
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 16 2006 Status: Offline Points: 53 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
I'm adding the following link (posted elsewhere, but I'm trying to place all possible h2h articles in one place. I find this particularly alarming, given Dr. Niman response to it. He says: "The hospitalization of relatives of the suspected fatal bird flu case in western India is cause for concern. Initial media reports indicated that the index case tested positive for bird flu. Later reports indicated he was not a bird flu case because of a lack of contact with birds. http://www.zeenews.com/znnew/articles.asp?aid=276891&arc hisec=REG&archisubsec= It's short enough, I'll paste it below. I think that brings to FOUR the number of potential h2h cases we are now watching? Source: ZEENET News
|
||||||||
Guests
Guest Group |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
Please add the following link to your browser to keep up to date with H2H. The following site is superior to Google most of the time, it provides real- time updates from over 22,000 news sources. I live in an eastern standard time zone. Northern_Mamma, and anyone else in a different time zones, could keep an eye peeled. http://newsnow.co.uk/newsfeed/?name=Bird+Flu |
||||||||
Deej
V.I.P. Member Joined: December 29 2005 Status: Offline Points: 285 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
thanks rick
|
||||||||
dee
|
||||||||
northern_mamma
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 16 2006 Status: Offline Points: 53 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
Excellent, Rick, thanks much. And yes, I'll keep a vigil over here on the West Coat. :-) Northern Mamma |
||||||||
Smaug
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 06 2006 Status: Offline Points: 67 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
I agree we should have a separate thread for H2H transmission. With most of the third world having cases it is just a matter of time before a successful mutation of H5N1 occurs.
|
||||||||
northern_mamma
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 16 2006 Status: Offline Points: 53 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
Thanks for the feedback, Smaug. Do you mean we should keep this thread going or start a new one? (Doesn't matter to me, I have no sense of ownership about it, I just want to make sure we can all find the h2h info as quickly and easily as possible.)
I guess I'm asking on behalf of the moderator--if you (or others) feel it should be moved or if we should just continue to follow this one. I can see it's getting hit pretty hard with page views so assume there is a lot of interest in it. Not difficult to understand, I guess. (Would just ask if it's moved we port the above messages over so we carry our "tally" with us. NM |
||||||||
northern_mamma
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 16 2006 Status: Offline Points: 53 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
Here's another one to watch: www.hindustantimes.com/news/181_1631996,001300820000.htm 8 fresh human cases suspected as culling continues "There are eleven patients now admitted in the isolated ward for suspected bird flu, including eight who were admitted on Monday following door-to-door survey and three others were admitted on Sunday," Munde said. The blood samples of all these people were sent to National Institute of Virology in Pune for testing and reports are expected in three days, he added. The three patients, who were admitted on Sunday, were those in contact with the Ganesh Sonar who died in Surat last week and two of his family members, Munde said." |
||||||||
gypsybeach1
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 03 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 57 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
hey, didn't a previous article say that ganesh had no
exposure to poultry and died of "acute respritory distress. and then his mother and brother were admitted with flu symptoms? and now an additional 3 more that were in contact with ganesh. this sounds like a significant cluster. |
||||||||
northern_mamma
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 16 2006 Status: Offline Points: 53 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
Yup.
|
||||||||
Guests
Guest Group |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
|
||||||||
Falcon
Valued Member Joined: February 20 2006 Status: Offline Points: 684 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
Suspected Human-To-Human
Disclaimer <> document.write("Email This Article"); Email This Article MainPage http://www.rense.com This Site Served by TheHostPros |
||||||||
Falcon
Valued Member Joined: February 20 2006 Status: Offline Points: 684 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
Turkish government accused of slow response to bird flu as human cases rise
|
||||||||
Guests
Guest Group |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
Posted on Sun, Feb. 19, 2006 India begins mass slaughter of fowlAJIT SOLANKIAssociated PressNAVAPUR, India - Health officials and farm workers in protective clothing began slaughtering hundreds of thousands of chickens in western India on Sunday, hoping to prevent the spread of the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus. Europe stepped up its battle against bird flu as the European Union's top poultry producer, France, grappled with its first reported case of the lethal virus. European poultry farmers said consumption has fallen and caused hundreds of millions of dollars in losses. Germany ordered some birds killed on the Baltic Sea island of Ruegen. The number of deadly flu cases in Italy rose to 16. Indian officials reported a 27-year-old poultry farm owner had died of bird-flu-like symptoms, though tests had yet to determine what killed him. "At this juncture we can only suspect that the cause of his death could be bird flu," Surat district officer Vatsala Vasudev told the Press Trust of India news agency. Workers in Navapur, a major poultry farming region in western Maharashtra state, dumped bird carcasses and gloves, goggles and blue gowns used by health teams into deep pits at poultry farms. Bird flu has devastated poultry stocks and killed at least 91 people, mostly in Asia, since 2003, according to the World Health Organization. Most human cases of the disease have been linked to contact with infected birds. Scientists fear that the virus could mutate into a form that is easily transmitted among humans, sparking a pandemic. Since early Sunday, more than 200,000 chickens had been killed in Navapur of about 500,000 expected to be slaughtered within a 1.5-mile radius, said Anees Ahmed, the Maharashtra state minister for animal husbandry. Poultry farms were closed to everyone but health officials and workers in protective gear. Chicken shops were shuttered. The government has banned the sale or transport of chickens from the area, and checkpoints have been set up to inspect trucks. India exports some $84.4 million worth of poultry products a year to Europe, Japan and the Middle East, and has seen a rise in overseas orders in the past year as countries such as Indonesia struggled to control bird flu outbreaks. "Now countries will shut us out," said Ajit Ranade of the Bombay Veterinary College. Neighboring Nepal on Sunday said it was banning imports of all poultry and poultry products from India, while Bangladesh said it would step up surveillance along its border with India to prevent smuggling of birds into the country. In Egypt, authorities closed the Cairo zoo after six of 83 birds that died there recently tested positive for the H5N1 strain. Health authorities said tests still had not found the disease in humans. Egyptian officials, meanwhile, pleaded with citizens not to dispose of dead chickens, turkeys or other birds by throwing them in the roads, irrigation canals or the Nile River. "More than 90 percent of the cases so far have been found in poultry kept in cages on roofs or balconies of apartment buildings. We ask the people to cooperate and not to dump anything into the Nile, please," Health Minister Hatem Mustafa el-Gabaly said. France on Saturday joined Austria, Germany, Greece, Italy, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine in the ranks of countries with deadly bird flu in Europe. Some farmers in the southeastern French town of Joyeux, where the infected wild duck was found, began slaughtering their birds as a precaution. "I panicked," 64-year-old Gabrielle Josserand said after killing her two geese and eight ducks. "But I chose to act right away." http://www.sunherald.com/mld/sunherald/news/breaking_news/13 907638.htm |
||||||||
Guests
Guest Group |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
Sounds like Vietnam is close to sustained H2H with three people people sick in one househould within weeks of each other. They say they killed a duck, but a couple of weeks passed so that would rule out all of them contracting it from the duck. It would be nice to see the outcome of the study of the virus in those 3 patients...our 'pros' on here (Joe, Dr. Niman, Rick) should be made aware of this so they can keep an eye out...
|
||||||||
Falcon
Valued Member Joined: February 20 2006 Status: Offline Points: 684 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
Summary:
http://www.newstarget.com/004314.html
gee I wonder why they're pushing everyone into coming up with vaccines for humans |
||||||||
Falcon
Valued Member Joined: February 20 2006 Status: Offline Points: 684 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
Highlight:
Officials in Ohio have seized chicken meat smuggled from Asia to several restaurants and food stores, and they say they intend to step up investigations in the state. The cases are sounding alarms in the wake of concerns about a deadly bird flu virus that has spread across Asia in recent months. Despite the scare, experts say well-cooked poultry, even if it has been exposed to the virus, is probably not a risk. |
||||||||
Guests
Guest Group |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
The Vietnamese B2H2H2H was the beginning of a sustained H2H
string. I see the date. Hang on tight, we're getting closer to
the pandemic. It still needs to evolve.
Mild, mild, mild, mild. Keep on saying it, and it may come true. |
||||||||
Guests
Guest Group |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
Hold on isn't the Vietnam information old 2003/2004/2005 news. They
haven't had any cases since then. Have they? |
||||||||
Falcon
Valued Member Joined: February 20 2006 Status: Offline Points: 684 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
Avian influenza – situation in India – update 23 February 2006 The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare in India has informed WHO that no human cases of H5N1 infection have been detected to date. Tests conducted on samples taken from persons under investigation and their close contacts have yielded no positive results as of today. Testing has been undertaken at the National Institute of Virology in Pune and the National Institute of Communicable Diseases in Delhi. It was not clear if samples from a 27-year-old poultry worker from Gujarat State, said to have died of respiratory disease on 17 February, were among those tested. In India, as in all countries experiencing their first outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza, WHO strongly recommends that patient samples be sent to a WHO collaborating laboratory for diagnostic confirmation. Certainty about the status of human cases in a newly affected country is important for accurate risk assessment. In addition, analyses conducted by WHO-approved laboratories can yield information about the possible evolution of the virus and clues about how the virus may have arrived in the country. Genetic and antigenic studies of circulating viruses also help ensure that work on the development of a pandemic vaccine stays on track. this is dangerous, first they say theres human cases then theres none? So which is it? They're playing with fire and we're going to get burned for it. They know something and I got a feeling they're hiding something |
||||||||
Spoon
Valued Member Joined: January 29 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 607 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
Yeah... The Vietnam story is dated Jan. 2005.
|
||||||||
It's not so much the apocalypse... but the credit card bills ;-)
|
||||||||
Guests
Guest Group |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
From the WHO timeline...Vietnam reports a human case in Nov. 05...so it seems to me as if it NEVER left Vietnam, just not many cases reporting between lulls. Previous human case was July 05...it's had a lot of time to mutate there...as Joe said, we need to keep our eyes peeled here. WHO reports no substantial mutation to support H2H, but sounds like the virus is getting closer each day... http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/Timeline_24%2 002.pdf |
||||||||
Guests
Guest Group |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
Also note the WHO timeline in no way, shape, or form mentions all of these cases were related. It states 'sporadic' reporting. Very different from the article posted above, even if it is from '05. November of '05 was only 3 months ago...
|
||||||||
shrug
Valued Member Joined: February 06 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 21 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
posted on February 24, 2006 11:41:45 am A global flu pandemic cannot be avoided solely by containing an outbreak at its source, because the H5N1 bird flu virus is now so widespread that a form able to spark a pandemic could emerge more than once, say researchers Great idea NM -- keep our eyes on the birdie
|
||||||||
northern_mamma
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 16 2006 Status: Offline Points: 53 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
For what it's worth. (Posted also by Sniffles.) http://www.voanews.com/english/2006-02-24-voa65.cfm
|
||||||||
northern_mamma
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 16 2006 Status: Offline Points: 53 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
Three Suspect H5N1 Children Hospitalized in Manisa Turkey http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02240601/H5N1_Turkey_Manis a_3.html From Niman: "...A geographical cluster of three patients is cause for concern. More information on symptoms and possible relationship between D.A. and H.A. would be useful." (Posted in News by Rick) |
||||||||
northern_mamma
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 16 2006 Status: Offline Points: 53 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
China sees threat of "massive" bird flu outbreak http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2006-02/26/content_ 524014.htm "...Earlier on Saturday, Xinhua reported that two new human cases of bird flu had been diagnosed in the east of the country. A Chinese girl in eastern Zhejiang province and a woman farmer in neighbouring Anhui province were currently in critical condition, Xinhua cited the Ministry of Health as saying. The woman farmer, who was diagnosed on Feb. 11 with symptoms of fever and pneumonia, had come into contact with sick and dead poultry, Xinhua said. The girl, a nine-year-old from Anji County, had visited relatives who kept poultry but it was not clear how she had been infected, Xinhua said." |
||||||||
kiwi
Valued Member Joined: February 19 2006 Location: New Zealand Status: Offline Points: 51 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
these tests that are being carried out on people with flu, and coming up negative to H5N1 - yet are still dying because of respiratory illness maybe due to a change in the original H5N1 virus?( maybe now the BF H5N1 has a cousin so to speak?) so does anyone know how H2H testing would be done? since H5N1 is BF then what is H2H flu called?...........would the powers that be, be quick off the mark to tell us? a few lines out of our local paper dated 25th feb 2006 - waikato times NZ, headline reading, Indonesia lauches war against BF - South Korea, meanwhile, yesturday confirmed it recorded its first cases of BF spreading to humans in 2003-04. There was no explanation for the delay in reporting the results. - AP. |
||||||||
Guests
Guest Group |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
Kiwi, The authorities look for H2H first by contacts of a case becoming ill. Any contact who becomes ill at the same time or several days after the first is de facto considered to be exposure from a common source and not H2H. This is more for their convenience than anything else. Why look for problems when H2H would present itself by exponential growth of cases and wouldn't be able to be hidden. Those cases where H2H are apparent even to a casual observer are tested and the genetic makeup analyzed. They are looking for uniqueness. Have changes occurred that make it more efficient in transmission. Hope this helps. SZ |
||||||||
Corn
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1219 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
I would bet right now there are at least 5 hot zones with H2H. India, Indonesia- Java, Mylasya, Middle Africa, Mid East (namely Turley and Iraq) and I'm sure 3 or 4 more. You say Who knows? well who don't? All these false negitives and news that is a day late and a dollar short. All we are fed is a steady supply of government news releases writen backwards like "India says 94 out of 95 test negitive." and so on. This contact with dead bird excuse is getting pretty old. We're just lucky it's been mostly poor people infected and dying in place and not the rich world travelers. = (because those infected are mostly impoverished. It doesn't get around as fast.) |
||||||||
Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
|
||||||||
Guests
Guest Group |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
Corn
I cant beleive you just said that you are glad it is poor people and not rich people...!!!! I think you meant that if rich travellers had got it, the authorities would not be able to cover up.... it's the We're just lucky I think needs attention peace |
||||||||
northern_mamma
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 16 2006 Status: Offline Points: 53 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
Five new cases in hospitalIrdiani Mohd Salleh http://www.nst.com.my/Current_News/nst/Sunday/National/20060 226083412/Article/index_html "Health authorities are conducting house-to-house screenings in the affected area and those found with H5N1 symptoms will be admitted for tests," [Health director-general Datuk Dr Ismail Merican ]said. |
||||||||
northern_mamma
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 16 2006 Status: Offline Points: 53 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
This interview with Dr. Niman from last fall seems exceptionally timely. http://www.arcticbeacon.com/20-sep-2005.html Human to Human Passage of Deadly Avian Flu Verified Overseas; World Health Organization Refuses to Acknowledge As True Microbiologist, Dr. Henry Niman, says don't rely on government to protect against Avian flu since it is "playing catch-up" and vaccines are ineffective against new strains. He warns Avian flu is coming and it could be deadly.
20 Sep 2005
"Although there has been much controversy about whether human to human contact has been confirmed in H5N1 cases, Dr. Niman said 15 to 20 clusters have been uncovered overseas and human to human passage of the deadly virus has been known since 2004." |
||||||||
Corn
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1219 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
harpmandoodle, sorry meant to say....... because those infected are mostly impoverished. It doesn't get around as fast. .......How's that? just typing in a hurry. fruedian slip? |
||||||||
Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
|
||||||||
Guests
Guest Group |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
I guess Dr. Niman's news is why Elbows thinks we still have some time left. Seems like it's a little more out of control with the spread to all countries - guess we continue to....wait.....and watch.....and read....and....and....shop.....wait.....read....
|
||||||||
northern_mamma
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 16 2006 Status: Offline Points: 53 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
This was just reported in the last 20 minutes. I assume these are new infections? 7 more cases of bird flu detected (from Asian Age) http://www.asianage.com/main.asp?layout=2&cat1=1&cat 2=23&newsid=211087&RF=DefaultMain "New Delhi: Seven more cases of bird flu have been detected in Navapur in Maharashtra and Uchchal in Gujarat. " It's very confusing, as there's no detail or date on the article, but according to the newsnow.co site, which updates every five minutes, this was reported at 18:27 today (from India.) NM |
||||||||
Guests
Guest Group |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
NM you are doing a good job, keep it coming.
Colleen |
||||||||
Guests
Guest Group |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
Yes thanks NM - I think we're going to have to go with our gut and from these articles, and other BF watchers plans to know when to lock ourselves in. Thanks for all of the research and postings.
|
||||||||
northern_mamma
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 16 2006 Status: Offline Points: 53 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
Thanks for the positive feedback. I'm so grateful to have found this board.
|
||||||||
northern_mamma
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 16 2006 Status: Offline Points: 53 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
(Hold nose before opening this one...) CBS News, Feb. 27 WHO: Human Bird Flu Cases Risehttp://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/02/27/health/main1349539 .shtml "...Almost all human deaths from bird flu have been linked to contact with infected birds. and: "...But in China, it is believed the 9-year-old girl developed symptoms after a visit to relatives in the neighboring Chinese province of Anhui, where a 26-year-old female farmer also developed symptoms "following contact with diseased poultry." Edited by northern_mamma |
||||||||
northern_mamma
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 16 2006 Status: Offline Points: 53 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|||||||
This was posted elsewhere on Saturday, but it seems timely, given the discussion today re: cats as a potential intermediary... http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2006/s1578301.htm Failed Indonesian bird flu response concerns experts PETER CAVE: Are you seeing mutations in the virus in Indonesia?
|
||||||||
Post Reply | Page 12> |
Tweet
|
Forum Jump | Forum Permissions You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot create polls in this forum You can vote in polls in this forum |