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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Hurricane Norbert...

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    Posted: September 01 2008 at 9:12pm
NOAA

Category Two Hurricane


Hurricane NORBERT Public Advisory                                   


AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.4 WEST OR ABOUT 245 MILES
...395 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.


NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THEN NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...NORBERT
IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORBERT WILL THEN MAKE A SECOND
LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO ALTHOUGH NORBERT IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE BAJA
PENINSULA AS A HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...EAST
OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM...FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF WHERE NORBERT MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...21.4 N...113.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN

Category Two Hurricane:
Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers.

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FOLLOWING POSTS ARE THIS YEAR'S PREVIOUS HURRICANES

........................................................................................











































































PREVIOUS HURRICANES OF 2008......





future weather
.........................
 
 
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.http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/025213.shtml?tswind120?large#contents
 
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At the bottom right up there is

Josephine

just coming into view
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote H2HPrep Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 02 2008 at 1:21pm
Hanna and her brothers and sisters.
Maybe the southeast drought is over!
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It rained all summer here in the east, I had to buy an elec power washer to disapear the moss on my deck.  Almost too cold to swim.
 
Hanna not well formed here...
 
 
 
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This is an interesting site on storm surge...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/storm_surge.shtml
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UPDATE

.http://www.srh.weather.gov/mob/productview.shtml?pil=NHCTWDAT&version=0
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008
excerpt...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV IS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 93.9W AT
02/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 30 NM NORTH OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA MOVING
N-NW NEAR 7 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 19 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 993 MB. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO N OF 28N BETWEEN GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI AND PORT
ARTHUR TEXAS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS IN THE NRN GULF ARE
FORECAST TO IMPROVE AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES NORTHWARD AND A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF BY THU.

TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS CENTERED NEAR 20.5N 72.4W AT 03/0000 UTC
OR ABOUT 55 NM SOUTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND IN THE SERN
BAHAMAS AND ABOUT 390 NM SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU DRIFTING TOWARD THE
EAST. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE HANNA OVER THE SE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TOMORROW. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65
KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. HANNA IS PRODUCING
NUMEROUS SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS
THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE
SW ATLC WATERS FROM 15N-24N BETWEEN 65W-77W. HANNA IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE SE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...AND EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES...ARE
POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING MUDSLIDES AND FLASH FLOODING.

TROPICAL STORM IKE IS CENTERED NEAR 19.2N 46.3W AT 02/2100 UTC
OR ABOUT 895 NM EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IKE COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. IKE IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE WEST
IN TANDEM WITH THE CYCLONE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IKE HAS
AMPLE OUTFLOW AND A COMPACT...WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE CENTER IN ALL QUADRANTS.

TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE IS CENTERED NEAR 13.7N 25.9W AT 02/2100
UTC OR ABOUT 105 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 12 KT. THIS GENERAL W-NW MOTION AT ABOUT
THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. A LARGE
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND WILL STEER
JOSEPHINE TO PASS SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
OVER THE WARM OPEN WATERS OF THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...AND JOSEPHINE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY REMAINS IMPRESSIVE WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 24W-28W WITH OUTER RAINBANDS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WRN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
 
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008
800 AM AST THU SEP 04 2008

...HANNA PASSING NEAR THE BAHAMAS...

AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA...AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTHWESTWARD
TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST OR ABOUT 280
MILES...455 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 760 MILES...1220
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA WILL PASS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY...AND WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES BY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...RAINS AND
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA WILL REACH THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND
HANNA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...24.1 N...73.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST
.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB
 
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check above for more info..
 
 
IKE.... sept. 4, 2008........5am 144 miles per hr....
 
So far a ..........................Catagory 4
%5bTable%20of%20probable%20wind%20speed%20intensity%20range%5d
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Image:2008%2008L%205-day%20track.gif
 
HANNA
 
(downgraded to Tropical Storm)
 
Source- For more complete information
 
 
 
As of 11 p.m. EDT September 4 (0300 UTC September 5), Tropical Storm Hanna is located within 30 nautical miles of 26.5�N 76.3�W, about 50 mi (80 km) east of Great Abaco Island and about 540 mi (870 km) south of Wilmington, North Carolina. Maximum sustained winds are 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h), with stronger gusts. Minimum central pressure is 987 mbar (hPa; 29.15 InHg), and the system is moving northwest at 12 kt (14 mph, 22 km/h).

Hanna is a large storm; tropical storm-force winds extend out up to 315 mi (510 km) from the center of Hanna.

Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches (50 to 75 mm) are expected in the northern Bahamas and along the U.S. East Coast from Georgia to New England, with isolated amounts to 5 inches (125 mm) possible. Storm surge levels of 2 to 4 feet (0.6 to 1.2 m) are possible to the east of the landfall point on the Carolina coast.

Watches and warnings
...................................................
 
Hurricane watch
 
 
 
 
Tropical storm warning
 
Tropical storm watch
 
  • United States: the Georgia coast from Altamaha Sound, GA northward to the mouth of the Savannah River
  • United States: the Mid-Atlantic coast from the North Carolina-Virginia border northward to Great Egg Inlet, NJ including Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac and Delaware Bay
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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 04 2008 at 8:30pm
    Image:2008%2009L%205-day%20track.gif
    NOAA.GOV
    5-day track    Category 4 hurricane
     
     
    HURRICANE IKE
     

    As of 11 p.m. AST September 4 (0300 UTC September 5), Hurricane Ike is located within 15 nautical miles of 23.6°N 59.5°W, about 475 mi (760 km) north-northeast of the Leeward Islands and about 755 mi (1215 km) east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds are 115 knots (135 mph, 215 km/h),

     
    with stronger gusts. Minimum central pressure is 945 mbar (hPa; 27.91 InHg), and the system is moving west at 12 kt (14 mph, 22 km/h).

    Hurricane-force winds extend out up to 35 mi (55 km) from the center of Ike, and tropical storm-force winds extend out up to 115 mi (185 km) from the center of Ike.

     Source- For More Complete Information
     
     
     
     
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    Tropical Storm Hanna
     
    Winds 70 mi per hr
     

    Tropical Storm Hanna is close to a Category 1 hurricane status. It is spinning just east of the central Florida coast producing squalls of heavy rain, tropical storm-force gusts, and the occasional tornado from Florida to North Carolina.

    Category 3 Hurricane Ike needs to be monitored closely though in the Bahamas to southern Florida for possible impacts Sunday Night into Tuesday.

    Josephine, a tropical storm in the eastern Atlantic remains a fairly weak tropical storm and is no threat to land.

     
     
    Hurricane Ike
    Category 3 hurricane 
     
    The show of possible strengthening did not last long. By the morning of September 5, northerly wind shear began to erode the northern part of the system and the cloud tops around the eye began to warm once more.
     
    The structure of the eye became less prominent by a microwave satellite showed that the inner structure of Ike was not deteriorating or beginning to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle.[23] A later pass made by the satellite found that the northern eye wall had eroded and most of the convection was in the southern semi-circle of the storm. This indicated that Ike was continuing to weaken as it remained in a hostile environment.[
     
     

    As of 11 a.m. AST (1500 UTC) September 5, Hurricane Ike is located within 15 nautical miles of 23.2°N 62.7°W, about 425 mi (685 km) north of the Leeward Islands and about 550 mi (885 km) east-northeast of the Grand Turk Island. Maximum sustained winds are 105 knots (120 mph, 195 km/h), with stronger gusts. Minimum central pressure is 954 mbar (hPa; 28.17 InHg), and the system is moving west at 14 kt (16 mph, 26 km/h).

    Hurricane-force winds extend out up to 35 mi (55 km) from the center of Ike, and tropical storm-force winds extend out up to 105 mi (165 km) from the center.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ike

     

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    %5bImage%20of%205-day%20forecast%20of%20predicted%20track,%20and%20coastal%20areas%20under%20a%20warning%20or%20a%20watch%5d
    Noaa
     
     
    IKE
    was Category 2 hurricane, now category 4
     
     
    YOU WILL LIKE THIS SITE...
     
    The map is interactive...click all over it and see what it offers.
     
     
     
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    Tropical storm Josephine has dissipated.
     
    On September 5, the combination of wind shear, dry air, and cooling waters caused Josephine to weaken into a tropical depression. Josephine deteriorated into a remnant low the next morning as it continued to dissipate over the open waters of the eastern Atlantic.
     
     
    source-
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    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

     
    800 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
    STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF RALEIGH
    NORTH CAROLINA...AND ON HURRICANE IKE...LOCATED ABOUT 210 MILES
    EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSEPHINE...LOCATED ABOUT 855 MILES WEST OF THE
    CAPER VERDE ISLANDS.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.

    $$
    FORECASTER BEVEN
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     Image:Hurricane%20Ike%20RGBimage.jpg
    HURRICANE IKE NOW A CATEGORY 4
     
     
    Current storm information

    As of 5 p.m. AST (2100 UTC)
     
     
    September 6,
     
    Hurricane Ike is located within 15 nautical miles of 21.4°N 69.7°W, about 90 mi (145 km) east of Grand Turk Island.
     
    Maximum sustained winds are 115 knots (135 mph, 215 km/h), with stronger gusts. Minimum central pressure is 949 mbar (hPa; 28.03 InHg), and the system is moving west-southwest at 13 kt (15 mph, 24 km/h).
     
    Hurricane-force winds extend out up to 45 mi (75 km) from the center of Ike, and tropical storm-force winds extend out up to 140 mi (220 km) from the center.
     
    Storm surge levels of 13 to 18 feet (3.9 to 5.5 m) are expected in the warning areas north of Ike. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated amounts up to 12 inches (300 mm), are expected in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos.
     
    Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), are expected in eastern Cuba and Hispaniola, with isolated peak amounts as high as 20 inches (500 mm) possible.
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    HURRICANE IKE

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/vis-l.jpg

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    HURRICANE IKE



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    HURRICANE IKE  (115 knots) 130 miles per hour

    may weaken over CUBA then regain speed...
     
    From NOAA.GOV
     
     
    HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
    1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

    SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE
    LAST 6 HOURS.  THE LAST PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
    RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 949 MB AT 1100 UTC WHICH WAS VERY
    SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FIXES.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 115
    KT.  A RECENT SSMI OVERPASS INDICATES THAT AN OUTER RAINBAND COULD
    BE FORMING AN OUTER EYEWALL.  HOWEVER... EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
    CYCLES...INCLUDING THEIR IMPACTS ON INTENSITY...ARE VERY DIFFICULT
    TO ANTICIPATE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS...EITHER UP OR DOWN...IN
    INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES EASTERN CUBA
    TONIGHT. 
     
    ONCE INLAND...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BUT THE DEGREE OF
    WEAKENING DEPENDS ON HOW LONG THE CENTER REMAINS INLAND. 
     
    THELATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS IKE INLAND FOR APPROXIMATELY 36
    HOURS SO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS SHOWN.  HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL
    DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN THE CENTER OF IKE
    MOVING BACK OVER WATER SOONER.  IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
    SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 2 DAYS
     
    SINCE THE WATERS OVER
    THE GULF ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE HIGH...
    RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.

    IKE IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
    ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD OVER FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN
    INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 265/13.  IKE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
    WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARDS
    THE WEST-NORTHWEST. 
     
     IN 2-3 DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
    THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES CAUSING SOME WEAKENING OF THE
    RIDGE AND A REDUCTION IKE'S FORWARD SPEED.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
    MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO BYPASS THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A
    CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. 
     
    ONLY THE HWRF MODEL SHOWS
    ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS MATERIALIZING TO TURN IKE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
    WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE
    TOWARD THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
    THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH
    AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.

    SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING FLOWN BY THE NOAA
    G-IV...AND THIS DATA...ALONG WITH SPECIAL SOUNDINGS FROM NATIONAL
    WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...ARE PROVIDING ENHANCED DATA INTO THE
    DYNAMICAL MODELS.



    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL      07/1500Z 21.0N  73.4W   115 KT
    12HR VT     08/0000Z 20.9N  75.2W   120 KT
    24HR VT     08/1200Z 21.4N  77.6W    85 KT...INLAND
    36HR VT     09/0000Z 22.2N  79.9W    70 KT...INLAND
    48HR VT     09/1200Z 23.0N  81.8W    65 KT...INLAND
    72HR VT     10/1200Z 24.5N  85.0W    70 KT
    96HR VT     11/1200Z 26.0N  87.5W    85 KT
    120HR VT     12/1200Z 27.0N  90.5W   100 KT

    $$
    FORECASTER RHOME

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/071431.shtml

     
     

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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 07 2008 at 8:32am
    YOU WILL LIKE THIS SITE...
     
    The map is interactive...click all over it and see what it offers.
     
     
    .................................................................................................................................
     

    As of 11 a.m. AST (1500 UTC) September 7,

    Hurricane Ike is located within 15 nautical miles of 21.0°N 73.4°W, about 15 mi (30 km) west-southwest of Great Inagua Island and about 130 mi (205 km) east-northeast of Guantanamo, Cuba. Maximum sustained winds are 115 knots (130 mph, 215 km/h), with stronger gusts. Minimum central pressure is 949 mbar (hPa; 28.02 InHg), and the system is moving west at 11 kt (13 mph, 20 km/h).

    Hurricane-force winds extend out up to 60 mi (95 km) from the center of Ike, and tropical storm-force winds extend out up to 145 mi (230 km) from the center.

    Storm surge levels of 13 to 18 feet (3.9 to 5.5 m) are expected in the warning areas north of Ike. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated amounts up to 12 inches (300 mm), are expected in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), are expected in eastern Cuba and Hispaniola, with isolated peak amounts as high as 20 inches (500 mm) possible.

                    Watches and warnings

     As of 11 a.m. AST (1500 UTC) September 7, the following warnings and watches are in effect:

    Hurricane warning
    Hurricane watch
    Tropical storm warning
    • Haiti: the northern peninsula from the the Dominican Republic border westward and southward to Gonaïves
    Tropical storm watch
    WIKIPEDIA
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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 07 2008 at 9:06am
     
    HURRICANE IKE    SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 7 ..... NOAA.GOV
    .
    .
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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 07 2008 at 9:19am
     
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
    1119 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2008

    ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
    THE SURROUNDING WATERS...
    ...HURRICANE IKE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF OF
    MEXICO...


    AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
    LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 585 MILES...EAST
    SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST.

    IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
    WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
    HURRICANE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND MOVE
    NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA
    LATE MONDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS
    AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    SCALE.
     
    FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
    TONIGHT BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT
    APPROACHES EASTERN CUBA.
    IKE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER
    EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA ON MONDAY.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...FROM THE
    CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145
    MILES.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.

    GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-081530-
    /O.CAN.KKEY.HU.S.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
    /O.NEW.KKEY.HU.A.0001.080907T1519Z-000000T0000Z/
    FLORIDA BAY-GULF SIDE OF THE LOWER KEYS OUT 20 NM-
    GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
    OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
    CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
    WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST OUT 20 NM-
    OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
    CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
    WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
    KEY WEST TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS OUT 60 NM-
    1119 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2008

    ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...

    ...NEW INFORMATION...

    UPDATED WARNINGS/WATCH SECTION TO INSERT HURRICANE WATCH.
    UPDATED 11 AM POSITION FOR HURRICANE IKE.
    UPDATED PREPAREDNESS SECTION TO INCLUDE TRANSPORTATION INFORMATION.

    ...AREAS AFFECTED...

    THIS STATEMENT DETAILS SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY ACTIONS
    TO BE TAKEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY CONCERNING THE
    EFFECTS OF HURRICANE IKE.

    ...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE
    SURROUNDING WATERS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS OF THE WATCH AREA.


    ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    AS OF 800 AM...MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY
    EVACUATION FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS AND TOURISTS. ANYONE NEEDING
    TO FIND INFORMATION ON AVAILABLE HOTELS IN FLORIDA MAY CALL THE
    FLORIDA ASSISTANCE HOT LINE AT 1-800-287-8598.


    GENERAL MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS FOR FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS HAS
    BEEN INVOKED TODAY IN THREE PHASES
    ...
     
    BEGINNING WITH ALL LOWER KEYS
    RESIDENTS INCLUDING THE CITY OF KEY WEST AT 8 AM...
     
    MIDDLE KEYS
    RESIDENTS INCLUDING MARATHON AND KEY COLONY BEACH BEGINNING AT
    NOON...
     
    AND FINALLY THE UPPER KEYS RESIDENTS...INCLUDING ISLAMORADA
    AND OCEAN REEF AT 4 PM. T
     
     
    HE EVACUATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
    MONDAY
    ...BEFORE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE.
    THE OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
    UNIVERSITY...JUST OFF THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE AT U.S. ROUTE 41...
    TAMIAMI TRAIL...IN MIAMI WILL OPEN AT 8 AM THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
    NOT ALLOW PETS.


    AS OF 800 AM...THE CITY OF KEY WEST WILL OPERATE AN EVACUATION
    SHUTTLE...FOR RESIDENTS WHO LACK THEIR OWN MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION
    .
    THIS SHUTTLE WILL TAKE RESIDENTS TO THE MONROE COUNTY SHELTER IN
    MIAMI. PICK-UP LOCATIONS IN KEY WEST WILL BE AS FOLLOWS.
    .
     
    .DOUGLASS
    GYM IN BAHAMA VILLAGE...KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL...SEARSTOWN ON NORTHSIDE
    DRIVE...AND BERNSTEIN PARK ON STOCK ISLAND. THE SHUTTLES WILL ALSO
    PICKUP RESIDENTS AT NORMAL BUS STOP LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
    KEYS UP THROUGH MARATHON. GREYHOUND OPERATIONS WILL CONTINUE A
    REGULAR BUS SCHEDULE WITH DEPARTURES AT 545 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
    LAST DEPARTURE SCHEDULED AT 855 AM MONDAY.


    DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK...ALONG WITH ALL COUNTY AND STATE
    PARKS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED ON MONDAY
    AND TUESDAY. ALL COUNTY...STATE AND FEDERAL OFFICES WILL BE
    CLOSED ON MONDAY. THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS WILL REMAIN
    OPEN FOR ALL COMMERCIAL FLIGHTS TODAY...BUT THE LAST COMMERCIAL
    FLIGHT WILL BE AT 705 PM. OTHERWISE...GENERAL AVIATION WILL REMAIN
    OPEN UNTIL NOON MONDAY.

    ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

    FOR KEY WEST...THERE IS A 69 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
    39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 21 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED
    WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER.

    FOR MARATHON...THERE IS A 65 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
    39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 16 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED
    WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER.

    FOR MIAMI...THERE IS A 41 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
    39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
    74 MPH OR GREATER.

    ...MARINE IMPACTS...

    AS OF 800 AM...SNAKE CREEK AND OLD JEWFISH CREEK DRAWBRIDGES ARE
    LOCKED DOWN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
    THIS EVENING.

    ...NEXT UPDATE...

    THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE IKE
    TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED BY 3 PM...OR SOONER IF NEW
    INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

    $$

    FLZ076>078-081530-
    /O.CAN.KKEY.HU.S.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
    /O.NEW.KKEY.HU.A.1009.080907T1519Z-000000T0000Z/
    MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
    1119 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2008

    ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...

    ...NEW INFORMATION...

    UPDATED WARNINGS/WATCH SECTION TO INSERT HURRICANE WATCH.
    UPDATED 11 AM POSITION FOR HURRICANE IKE.
    UPDATED PREPAREDNESS SECTION TO INCLUDE TRANSPORTATION INFORMATION.

    ...AREAS AFFECTED...

    THIS STATEMENT DETAILS SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY ACTIONS
    TO BE TAKEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY CONCERNING THE
    EFFECTS OF HURRICANE IKE.

    ...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE
    SURROUNDING WATERS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS OF THE WATCH AREA.

    ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    AS OF 800 AM...MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY
    EVACUATION FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS AND TOURISTS. ANYONE NEEDING
    TO FIND INFORMATION ON AVAILABLE HOTELS IN FLORIDA MAY CALL THE
    FLORIDA ASSISTANCE HOT LINE AT 1-800-287-8598.

    GENERAL MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS FOR FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS HAS
    BEEN INVOKED TODAY IN THREE PHASES...BEGINNING WITH ALL LOWER KEYS
    RESIDENTS INCLUDING THE CITY OF KEY WEST AT 8 AM...MIDDLE KEYS
    RESIDENTS INCLUDING MARATHON AND KEY COLONY BEACH BEGINNING AT
    NOON...AND FINALLY THE UPPER KEYS RESIDENTS...INCLUDING ISLAMORADA
    AND OCEAN REEF AT 4 PM. THE EVACUATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
    MONDAY...BEFORE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE.
    THE OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
    UNIVERSITY...JUST OFF THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE AT U.S. ROUTE 41...
    TAMIAMI TRAIL...IN MIAMI WILL OPEN AT 8 AM THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
    NOT ALLOW PETS.

    AS OF 800 AM...THE CITY OF KEY WEST WILL OPERATE AN EVACUATION
    SHUTTLE...FOR RESIDENTS WHO LACK THEIR OWN MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION.
    THIS SHUTTLE WILL TAKE RESIDENTS TO THE MONROE COUNTY SHELTER IN
    MIAMI. PICK-UP LOCATIONS IN KEY WEST WILL BE AS FOLLOWS...DOUGLASS
    GYM IN BAHAMA VILLAGE...KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL...SEARSTOWN ON NORTHSIDE
    DRIVE...AND BERNSTEIN PARK ON STOCK ISLAND. THE SHUTTLES WILL ALSO
    PICKUP RESIDENTS AT NORMAL BUS STOP LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
    KEYS UP THROUGH MARATHON. GREYHOUND OPERATIONS WILL CONTINUE A
    REGULAR BUS SCHEDULE WITH DEPARTURES AT 545 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
    LAST DEPARTURE SCHEDULED AT 855 AM MONDAY.

    DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK...ALONG WITH ALL COUNTY AND STATE
    PARKS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED ON MONDAY
    AND TUESDAY. ALL COUNTY...STATE AND FEDERAL OFFICES WILL BE
    CLOSED ON MONDAY. THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS WILL REMAIN
    OPEN FOR ALL COMMERCIAL FLIGHTS TODAY...BUT THE LAST COMMERCIAL
    FLIGHT WILL BE AT 705 PM. OTHERWISE...GENERAL AVIATION WILL REMAIN
    OPEN UNTIL NOON MONDAY.

    ...WINDS...

    WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR ALL ROAD TRAVEL THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
    EVENING. WINDS MAY BECOME UNSAFE FOR TRAVEL MONDAY NIGHT.

    ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

    FOR KEY WEST...THERE IS A 65 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
    39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 18 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED
    WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER.

    FOR MARATHON...THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
    39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 13 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED
    WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER.

    FOR MIAMI...THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
    39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
    74 MPH OR GREATER.

    ...MARINE IMPACTS...

    AS OF 800 AM...SNAKE CREEK AND OLD JEWFISH CREEK DRAWBRIDGES ARE
    LOCKED DOWN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
    THIS EVENING.

    ...NEXT UPDATE...

    THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE IKE
    TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED BY 3 PM...OR SOONER IF NEW
    INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.


    $$

    APA

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    HURRICANE IKE


    HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
    1100 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

    DESPITE IKE'S TRACK OVER LAND DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO...THE
    CYCLONE STILL HAS A GOOD CLOUD SIGNATURE AND RADAR STRUCTURE. THE
    INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS ONLY LOWERED TO 85 KT.

    A RECONNAISSANCE
    AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE IKE THIS AFTERNOON
    AND DETERMINE HOW MUCH
    WEAKENING HAS OCCURRED.

    EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER
    WILL BE BACK OVER WATER SOUTH OF CUBA SOON.

    IF THIS
    MATERIALIZES...IKE MIGHT NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY
    SHOWN...
    AND THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
    SLIGHTLY UPWARD WHILE IKE IS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN.

    IN ABOUT 2 DAYS...IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO

    WHERE THE WATERS ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW...AND
    RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.

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    Some determinants point to Hurricane IKE possibly making landfall east or west of Galveston Texas.

    Ike's current wind speed is 100 mph


    http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/hurricane-ike-2008


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    Energy Firms Prepare for Ike

    By ISABEL ORDONEZ
    September 9, 2008

    With Hurricane Ike on the horizon, energy companies in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico are bringing employees onshore again and preparing to halt production just days after they began restaffing following Hurricane Gustav.


    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122088186183509943.html?mod=yahoo_hs&ru=yahoo
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    HURRICANE IKE

    currently 75 mies per hour


    The map below is interactive...click over it and see what it offers.
     



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    HURRICANE IKE
    Current winds at 85 mph

    ......................................................................

    HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
    500 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

    SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING BETTER
    ORGANIZED.
    AN AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE
    CENTER AND THERE ARE NUMEROUS OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. IKE
    CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS PRODUCING TROPICAL
    STORM FORCE WINDS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERMOST
    FLORIDA KEYS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
    SAMPLING THE HURRICANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 963 MB AND
    SFMR WINDS OF 73 KNOTS. THE MAXIMIUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SO FAR IS 81
    KNOTS. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UP TO 75
    KNOTS.

    ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IKE HAS BEGUN TO RECOVER FROM THE
    MANY HOURS OF INTERACTION WITH LAND. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD
    CONTINUE AS IKE MOVES OVER A COUPLE OF WARM EDDIES ASSOCIATED WITH
    THE LOOP
    CURRENT AND MOVES WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
    ENVIRONMENT.

    THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES IKE A CATEGORY THREE
    HURRICANE BASED ON A BLEND BETWEEN STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL
    HURRICANE MODELS. HOWEVER...THE INTENISITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN
    AND IKE COULD END UP BEING A CATEGORY HIGHER OR LOWER THAN
    FORECAST.


    RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IKE IS MOVING TOWARD
    THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS AROUND THE
    SOUTHWESTERN EDGE A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
    ATLANTIC. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
    BUILD AND EXPAND WESTWARD FORCING IKE TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL
    WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT TREE DAYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
    OF MEXICO.

    THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE
    NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. MOST OF
    THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHWARD TURN WILL OCCUR AFTER THE
    CYCLONE IS ALREADY INLAND.

    I HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 24 TO 48
    HOUR FORECAST TRACK SINCE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED.

    THEREAFTER...THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT SO HIGH BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE
    MORE SPREAD OUT...BUT THEY ALL BRING THE HURRICANE ASHORE ALONG
    THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
    FORECAST.



    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 10/0900Z 23.5N 84.9W 75 KT
    12HR VT 10/1800Z 24.0N 86.0W 80 KT
    24HR VT 11/0600Z 24.7N 87.7W 90 KT
    36HR VT 11/1800Z 25.2N 89.7W 100 KT
    48HR VT 12/0600Z 25.8N 92.0W 105 KT
    72HR VT 13/0600Z 27.5N 96.5W 105 KT
    96HR VT 14/0600Z 31.5N 98.0W 40 KT...INLAND
    120HR VT 15/0600Z 34.5N 97.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

    $$
    FORECASTER AVILA

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    Evacuations begin in Texas ahead of Hurricane Ike

    By MONICA RHOR, Associated Press Writer

    excerpt-
     
    HOUSTON - The frail and elderly were put aboard buses Wednesday and authorities warned 1 million others to flee inland as Hurricane Ike steamed toward a swath of the Texas coast that includes the nation's largest concentration of refineries and chemical plants.
     
    story-
     
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    HURRICANE IKE
     
    Was a Category 2 at 8pm
     
    winds at 100 mph
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    HURRICANE IKE
     
     
    Read
     
    FORECASTER FRANKLIN in full at
     
     
     
    HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  41A
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
    700 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
     
    Excerpt-
     
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. 
     
     IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    SCALE...
     
    AND IT COULD INTENSIFY INTO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE OVER
    THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

    IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
    OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
    STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM.

    AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT THE MINIMUM
    CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

    COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
    LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE
    EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.  ABOVE NORMAL
    TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE
    NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
    SO...BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE
    APPROACHES.

    IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER
    SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

    REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...25.3 N...88.0 W.  MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
    MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
    HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT.


    $$
    FORECASTER FRANKLIN



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    HURRICANE IKE

     CATEGORY 2


    FROM-
    FORECASTER AVILA


    HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  45A
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
    700 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

    ...LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS
    COAST..
    .

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
    BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
    COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

    PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
    AN PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
    COMPLETION.


    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO
    PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
    FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
    INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


    AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
    LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES...585
    KM...
    EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 230 MILES...370 KM...
    SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.


    IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
    TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN
    TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...

    THE
    CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY
    OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
    CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE TODAY...LONG
    BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.


    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
    HIGHER GUSTS.
    IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
    HOURS...AND IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE THE
    CENTER REACHES THE COAST.


    IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
    EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER
    ...AND
    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.
    AN OIL PLATFORM IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RECENTLY
    REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 109 MPH...176 KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF
    400 FEET.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.

    COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
    LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
    EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
    LANDFALL...EXTENDING A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER
    DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE.


    SURGE FLOODING OF UP
    TO 25 FEET...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER...COULD OCCUR AT THE HEADS OF BAYS.
    COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF
    6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
    LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
    WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
    COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
    GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

    IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
    EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
    AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.


    ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
    LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
    POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND
    SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.


    REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...26.9 N...92.2 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
    MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    1000 AM CDT.


    $$
    FORECASTER AVILA

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       ***IKE ***


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    PREDICTION IS...
     
    IKE may become a CATEGORY 3 Hurricane by landfall.
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    HURRICANE IKE
    INFO HERE...


    http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&date=2008-09-13_00:10
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    HURRICANE IKE


    From NOAA
    FORECASTER STEWART


    HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 47B
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
    800 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

    ...IKE'S OUTER RAINBANDS LASHING THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
    LOUISIANA COASTS...

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
    NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
    REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.


    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
    PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
    FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
    INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.


    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 800 PM CDT...0100Z...THE CENTER OF VERY LARGE HURRICANE IKE WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.3 WEST OR ABOUT 70
    MILES...115 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 95 MILES
    ...155 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BEAUMONT TEXAS.

    IKE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 13
    MPH...20 KM/HR. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
    WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
    TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
    BY LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

    DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
    INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...
    WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
    IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
    SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST SATURDAY
    MORNING AS A
    CATEGORY THREE
    ...MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...
    ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

    IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
    OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
    STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM. DURING
    THE PAST HOUR...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON
    GALVESTON ISLAND AND A GUST TO 70 MPH WAS MEASURED AT A NOAA BUOY
    JUST OFFSHORE GALVESTON ISLAND BEFORE IT STOPPED REPORTING.

    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
    RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

    COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET
    ...WITH NEAR 25 FEET
    IN SOME AREAS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
    BATTERING WAVES.
    ..CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
    CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
    USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
    CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE
    NORMAL ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

    DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
    SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.


    IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
    EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
    AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

    ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
    LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.


    REPEATING THE 800 PM CDT POSITION...28.4 N...94.3 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB.

    THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
    HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.


    $$
    FORECASTER STEWART



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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2008 at 7:48pm


    Jim Cantore says ... "The sad part is the number that stayed."

    He says that only 40% left Galveston Island. 


    ( on MSNBC later heard that 40% elected to stay...)

    VIDEO
    http://www.weather.com/multimedia/videoplayer.html?clip=328&from=news_top_video
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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2008 at 11:46am
     
    Asked to describe the city’s damage, Mr. Varela assessed it as a 10 on a scale of 1 to 10.
     
     
     
    Huge Storm Slams Into Coast of Texas
     
    By JAMES C. McKINLEY Jr. and IAN URBINA
    Published: September 12, 2008
     
    HOUSTON — Hurricane Ike made landfall at Galveston, Tex., early Saturday as it threatened to devastate it and other towns along the Gulf of Mexico with a wall of seawater 20 feet high.
     
     Read here-
     
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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2008 at 2:41pm

    September 12th, 2008
    Posted: 11:01 PM ET

    (CNN) — One person died Friday after drowning in the water off the coast of Corpus Christi, Texas, as Hurricane Ike approached, authorities said.


    Read here

    http://cnnwire.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/12/19-year-old-dead-in-texas/


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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 14 2008 at 9:08pm
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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 15 2008 at 6:21am
    .

    Ike destroys oil facilities, damages pipelines

    At least 10 affected after preliminary survey, damage worse than Gustav

    updated 6:00 p.m. ET, Sun., Sept. 14, 2008
     
    Reade here... photos also....
     
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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote coyote Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 15 2008 at 6:26am
    Well that should make gas prices go up. ???? is how much and for how long?
    Long time lurker since day one to Member.
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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 15 2008 at 9:25am
    Look at GAS Prices here..
    .
     
    Prices here have not gone up much.   Anywhere from 3.54 to 3.87
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