| PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL |
| 123456 |
| Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Depression - Event Date: December 29 2008 - February 01 2009 |
Post Reply 
|
| Author | ||||||
Krys 
Valued Member 
Joined: February 13 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 34 |
 Post Options
 Thanks(0)
 Quote Reply
 Calendar Event: DepressionPosted: December 29 2008 at 8:25pm |
|||||
|
What Do You Think?
|
||||||
|
FireHorse
|
||||||
 |
||||||
|
coyote
Admin Group 
Joined: April 25 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 8395 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: December 30 2008 at 3:21am |
|||||
|
Voted yes. For the ones that are unemployed they are already into a depression. I think that we already have one foot in the door for the start of a depression and it may be worse than the one that we had back in the 30's.
|
||||||
|
Long time lurker since day one to Member.
|
||||||
|
||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group 
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: December 30 2008 at 5:18am |
|||||
|
It is the 'D' word and there are many articles on how hard it was to get them to say the 'R' word.
It’s a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it’s a depression when you lose your own. -Harry S TrumanThe 20-Hour Workweek - The unemployment rate seems low. That’s because it’s not counting all those underemployed workers.U.S. Jobless Rate Hits 14-Year HighI never gave them hell, I just tell the Valley girl expression - 'like where you are is where you are'. Medclinician |
||||||
|
||||||
|
MelodyAtHome
Valued Member
Joined: May 16 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 2018 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: December 30 2008 at 7:57pm |
|||||
|
All the news I hear is that it is going to get MUCH MUCH MUCH worse. I do believe that in January we will know more when we see how many retail stores, restaraunts, other businesses close and lay off those thousands of people. Those that don't go bankrupt and close down will be cutting to the bear bones when it comes to their employees.
Maybe some manufacturing that don't go bankrupt may decide to go to Mexico, Brazil or somewhere else...who knows.
I do know it will get much worse before we see any light at the end of the tunnel. I think we are down here in the deep abyss for some time...and I am a very positive person by the way by nature...not a gloom and doom kind of person. It's very sad what will happen to sooo many families and those with children.
Melody
|
||||||
|
Melody
Emergency Preparedness 911 http://emergencypreparedness911.blogspot.com/ |
||||||
|
||||||
|
Kilt2
Adviser Group
Joined: December 17 2007 Status: Offline Points: 7414 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: January 01 2009 at 12:37am |
|||||
|
no doubt in my mind
|
||||||
|
And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
|
||||||
|
||||||
|
Penham
Chief Moderator
Moderator Joined: February 09 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 14913 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: January 01 2009 at 10:14am |
|||||
|
Doesn't the unemployment rate have to be much higher for it to be an "official" depression? Although I realize the unemployment rate they are reporting could not possibly be accurate, it has to be much higher, taking into consideration the people who have run out of benefits, or only have part time work that used to work full time. Of course, look how long we were in a recession before we were actually told it was "official". We were saying here in this board we were in a recession back in April of 2008 and just in the past month or so we have been "officially" told we are in a recession. I think it has to get a bit worse before we are in an actual depression. Of course, my husband and I both still have our jobs, I might think differently if one of us was laid off. However, I don't think we are far off from a depression. Now that the holidays are over I think we will see some drastic changes.
|
||||||
|
||||||
|
Penham
Chief Moderator
Moderator Joined: February 09 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 14913 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: January 01 2009 at 10:20am |
|||||
|
We have the Post Office getting ready to layoff 40,000. That's what they reported in November, but I figured that wouldn't start until after the holidays, since they had all that extra mail and Christmas packages to deliver. I figure we are in for some rough times here coming up pretty quickly. The stores will be looking to layoff people now that the holidays are over also, with less people buying, they will need less sales people. Although around here, our local news was reporting they never hired any "seasonal" workers this year, they just worked the people they had and gave them more hours. I think the worst is yet to come and I think it will be coming pretty quickly.
|
||||||
|
||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: January 01 2009 at 9:38pm |
|||||
|
Don't know vote...because I believe the unemployment rate needs to be WAY higher and more people booted out of the homes they can't pay for.
Obama is going to put people back to work on road and schools. Please...very few people who are now out of work will benefit from rebuiding or building roads and schools in this country. The wealthy concrete companies who already have workers waiting to work and big construction companies who already have workers waiting to work will benefit. So that will take care of maybe .5 - 1% of the people unemployed. Banks, manufacturers, small business, restaurants, retail will not be hiring people back because we are building roads and schools. This is all going to take time folks it will take 5 - 8 years before this gets back to better. Our politicians really messed this up really good loaning money for homes, cars and toys people could not pay for. Both Republicans and Democrats are a fault they all knew what they were doing and did not care...Politicians motto...live for today do not worry about tomorrow! |
||||||
|
||||||
|
Truth
V.I.P. Member
Joined: December 28 2008 Location: San Tropez Status: Offline Points: 231 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: January 02 2009 at 7:03am |
|||||
|
Though Flumom, I believe that Obama has more plans to getting people back to work than simply building roads and school, at least if you bother to listen to him. One Obama's big inititives is to build The Green Economy, meaning alternative sources of fuel that will make us A) no longer dependent of ME oil, B) Create millions of new jobs and C) help stop global warming. It would be a 3rd industrial revolution if it worked. Imagine making electric cars, cars that run on ethanol, solar cars (such as toyota is making now) and then doing the same with the way we heat our homes. This would be huge. And I know I will be ready to invest in the first big companies that are actually taking enthanol use to a new level.
Also consider the fact that Obama is willing to invest in areas previously shunned by the Bush administration, such as stem-cell research and biogenetics. This should create many jobs and much wealth. team this together with his more socialized programs such as roads, schools, and healthcare and we may be getting somewhere. |
||||||
|
||||||
|
cgh18
Valued Member
Joined: November 28 2006 Status: Offline Points: 142 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: January 02 2009 at 7:40am |
|||||
|
There are a few other things to consider in this recess/depression. People owe more money to credit holders and banks. The cost to live is much higher. There are fewer ways to earn money without punching a clock. There is no trade or barter system like in the old days. So things are tough all the way around with no end in sight.
|
||||||
|
cgh
|
||||||
|
||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: January 02 2009 at 6:41pm |
|||||
|
Truth you know less about the "Green Economy" than you know about Politics! Alternative fuels, solar, are not jobs for the "regular" person, the people who are researching these green items are already hard at work doing this and throwing more money at this is not going to do anything for people out of work.
Ethanol is going to hurt the world food crisis...we DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CORN! What you want people to starve for fuel and let us not forget it takes lots of water to produce ethanol another poor use of our resources. I will not go into stem-cell because I am pro-life. However, for the "regular" person who has lost their job going Green, Roads and Schools will not bring this economy back. Time and only giving loans to people who can pay them back will solve this "Recession/Depression" not Obama's "feel good solutions". What our Politicians have created with the "Bail Out of Banks" NOW the Auto Industry, Retailers, Steel Companies, Democrat Govs for their States want to be bailed out, hey why not Bugs Bunny too. If we got smart we would kick all the Congressmen and Senators out of office and start over with another crew and if they mess up kick them out and redo until we get people in government who will do a good job for the American People! |
||||||
|
||||||
|
Truth
V.I.P. Member
Joined: December 28 2008 Location: San Tropez Status: Offline Points: 231 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: January 03 2009 at 5:04am |
|||||
|
Nonsense, you havent proved that you know ANYTHING about politics! Really, the only thing youve stated is that you have friends high up in Washington and therefor you are in the know. And you want me/us to take you for your word without you telling us anything.
The so called Green Economy would put american people back to work. It would give blue collar and white collar jobs to their respected industries i.e auto, housing, construction, retail, etc. For example one in ten people are tied to the auto industry, now imagine if you kept that industry making electric cars, you would be keeping 10% of workforce. And your diatribe about ethanol makes little sense. First of all ethanol is mainly derived from sugar cane and not corn. Or at least that's how it is in Brazil, which is the world's leading ethanol producer. BTW, in Brasil the use of anything has surpassed the use of oil and natural gas. And I am certainly not clear on what your problem is with water. Ethanol is another crop, sure we dont have enough crop land to have such a use of ethanol as Brazil does but the point is to use mixed alternative energies. I am in favor of nuclear energy as a part the energy equation. It is by far the cleanist form of energy. The problem is where to store it. I dont find Obama's approach to be "feel good". I see millions of jobs being created through this 3rd industrial revolution. You are just incredibly cynical and not knowledgeable enough to have a mature conversation with. Try, instead of telling us how important and connected you are, defending your views and maybe just maybe youll sound less like a hack. |
||||||
|
||||||
|
Penham
Chief Moderator
Moderator Joined: February 09 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 14913 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: January 03 2009 at 4:28pm |
|||||
|
I did not vote for Obama, but if he is going to "create jobs", I would like to see jobs created in the energy field. In areas like wind farms, solar power and that type thing. What about training people to built these type power plants and build/remodel individual homes to run off solar energy. This would put alot of people to work, would help individuals with their energy bills, we would use less energy as a nation. I despise nuclear power, because of the nuclear waste attached to it. I would not like to see us go in this direction at all. I would fight to keep nuclear power "out of my backyard" as I did back in college, when we fought to keep Black Fox from being built near Tulsa, way back in the day. I would like to be able to afford to convert to solar power in my home, but it is costly, upwards of $10,000 and the tax credits are very minimal, not worth the cost. I would love to be able to afford to go solar. Of course solar won't work everywhere, but here where I live, it is sunny almost everyday. There is a wind farm less than 20 miles from me, but we need more.
|
||||||
|
||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: January 04 2009 at 12:39am |
|||||
|
Oooo Truth, the truth hurts. Ethanol is made from corn in this country and to produce Ethanol it takes much water...you have very little knowledge.
Obama will not pull us out of this mess with his "feel good" ideas is my opinion and I have a right to my opinion. The small business person will do more for this economy than Obama. Penham is correct that Solar is too expensive and we are no where near a breakthrough on cost for solar. Wind farms will fair better than solar. I also agree with Penham build Nuclear power plants just not near me! Truth you had better get a thicker skin when you participate in this blog or you will always have hurt feelings and say not nice things. Poor baby you better study before you make statements that ethanol in this country is made from sugar cane. |
||||||
|
||||||
|
SouthTexas
V.I.P. Member
Joined: April 29 2007 Status: Offline Points: 61 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: January 04 2009 at 12:49pm |
|||||
|
Recession? Depression? In my small South Texas town you couldn't tell. REstuarants are packed, supermarkets are busy, and even the manager of the local Wal Mart said Christmams sales were up thi year over last.
Until....
Yesterday I walked into the local chain lumber yard. Four checkers with no customers. Several sales people standing around. Two of them even asked to assist me - a rarity here. When I drove into the yard to pick up my lumber, there was no wait. Usually 3 or 4 cars in line. One of the four standing around yard boys came to me to get my lumber. order.
Hummmm...a sample of what is to come?
|
||||||
|
The Lord be magnified.
|
||||||
|
||||||
|
quickdraw
Adviser Group
Joined: August 10 2006 Status: Offline Points: 219 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: January 04 2009 at 1:15pm |
|||||
|
I voted yes because Obama is going to make everything worse.Jmo
|
||||||
|
Everyday is a good day and if you dont believe that try missing one.
|
||||||
|
||||||
|
LaRo
Valued Member
Joined: March 14 2008 Status: Offline Points: 350 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: January 04 2009 at 2:43pm |
|||||
|
The gov will probably come out with unemplolyment figures soon. If they say it's at 10%, the real number is probably 20%. Like all the other statistics flowing from gov central, the numbers are kinda "a little off center."
|
||||||
|
r we there yet?
|
||||||
|
||||||
|
Truth
V.I.P. Member
Joined: December 28 2008 Location: San Tropez Status: Offline Points: 231 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: January 04 2009 at 3:21pm |
|||||
|
Flumom, I dont think Penham is for nuclear power whether its in his backyard or in yours, read his blurb again. And I didnt make a mistake saying that ethanol is mainly derived from sugar cane, that's how it is in 90% of the world. The fact that the US has mainly used the approach of the laborious undertaking of converting corn to ethanol is more a problem with the various corn growers lobbies and associations than it is with a sound and intelligent strategy- you do realize that this is not the case in the up an coming production areas such as Florida and California?
The reason, flumom, that its called an *economy* is that everything is incorporated in it and by it. Its not simply throwing up a few solar panels and growing soy it entails a completely new direction and all-encompassing change of living, of how we do things, of INDUSTRY! And yes, that should brings millions of new jobs if done the right way. The thing about our situation now is that we almost have to do make these changes. As good old TJ said "Invention is the birth child of necessity". We can no longer depend on foreign oil for one or will find ourselves involved in more ME wars and be at the every whim from speculators at OPEC. Our markets will continue fluctuating with every dubious word that's muttered from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or every rocket that flies from Gaze to Israel. We are no longer in control. We no longer have a solid industrial base as our car companies cant compete with foreign companies and everything else is being sent abroad to the BRIC to be manafactured (Brasil, Russia, India and China) and finally whether you believe it or not most scientist and experts and simple every day empiricist (like myself) acknowledge Global Warming and the fact that is we dont turn thing around this planet will be in serious peril. So for all these reasons a green economy is a good economy and anyone who has listened to Obama's domestic policy knows that at least in his words he is serious about building one. And notice I say "in his words" because how do I know if he will actually follow through with his policies. You on the other hand have not given the man the benifit of the doubt. You have judged him before he's even been sworn in. Youre a true hater. Dont be a player hater flumom. |
||||||
|
||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: January 04 2009 at 4:01pm |
|||||
|
Obama does not deserve the benefit of the doubt because he has no experience as a leader and he is taking his marching orders from the "group" who helped get him elected. I have judged no one and I hate no one that takes way too much energy. I would say that you Truth have a real problem of judging and hating not me. Are you one of those "Angry Democrats"?
|
||||||
|
||||||
|
purplepanther
Adviser Group
Joined: March 04 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 107 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: January 09 2009 at 12:13pm |
|||||
|
i work at McDonalds we seem to be always busy;Walmart is busy ,the dollar stores but I guess it is just depends where you are working at. i think McDonalds,Walmart and the dollar stores maybe the last ones hit hard but it seems that more people are buying the dollar items more at McDonalds |
||||||
|
||||||
|
Penham
Chief Moderator
Moderator Joined: February 09 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 14913 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: January 09 2009 at 1:22pm |
|||||
You are correct! people are still eating out, but they are eating out at cheaper places like McDonald's instead of the more expensive restaurants. The same with stores, people are shopping, but they are really looking for the bargains and the cheaper prices. I am a vendor for a major company, so I am in several stores every week, Dollar Tree, Walmart, KMart, BigLots and several grocery stores are some of the places I go, so I see the activity is stores on a daily basis and I see what's in their warehouses. It was kind of scary the other day, I walked into a Dollar Tree and there were no customers in there, I was the only one in there, besides the employees, that has never happened before.
|
||||||
|
||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: January 09 2009 at 9:35pm |
|||||
|
Penham... you are right about the unemployment rate for a depression, it was quite high.
......................................................................................................................................
The U.S. had not returned to 1929's GNP for over a decade and still had an unemployment rate of about 15% in 1940 -down from 25% in 1933.
wikipedia
................................
HOOVERVILLE
................................
 A Hooverville was the popular name for a shanty town built by homeless men during the Great Depression.
They were named after the President at the time, Herbert Hoover, because he allegedly let the nation slide into depression. The term was coined by Charles Michelson, publicity chief of the Democratic National Committee.[1] The name Hooverville has also been used to describe the tent cities commonly found in modern-day America.
Homelessness was present before the Great Depression, and hobos and tramps were common sights in the 1920s, but the economic downturn increased their numbers and concentrated them in urban settlements close to soup kitchens run by charities.
These settlements were often formed on empty land and consisted of jerry-built shacks and tents. Authorities did not officially recognize these Hoovervilles and occasionally removed the occupants for technically trespassing on private lands, but they were frequently tolerated out of necessity. The New Deal had special relief programs aimed at the homeless, the Federal Transient Service (FTS), which operated 1933-35.
Some of the men who were forced to live in these conditions possessed building skills and were able to build their houses out of stone. Most people, however, resorted to building their residences out of box wood, cardboard, and any scraps of metal they could find, together with a stove, bedding and some cooking utensils.
Most of these unemployed residents of the Hoovervilles used public charities or begged for food from those who had housing during this era. Democrats coined other terms, such as "Hoover blanket" (old newspaper used as blanketing) and "Hoover flag" (an empty pocket turned inside out). "Hoover leather" was cardboard used to line a shoe with the sole worn through. A "Hoover wagon" was an automobile with horses tied to it because the owner could not afford gasoline; in Canada, these were known as Bennett buggies, after the Prime Minister.
A Hooverville was the popular name for a shanty town built by homeless men during the Great Depression. They were named after the President at the time, Herbert Hoover, because he allegedly let the nation slide into depression. The term was coined by Charles Michelson, publicity chief of the Democratic National Committee.[1]
The name Hooverville has also been used to describe the tent cities commonly found in modern-day America.
Homelessness was present before the Great Depression, and hobos and tramps were common sights in the 1920s, but the economic downturn increased their numbers and concentrated them in urban settlements close to soup kitchens run by charities.
These settlements were often formed on empty land and consisted of jerry-built shacks and tents. Authorities did not officially recognize these Hoovervilles and occasionally removed the occupants for technically trespassing on private lands, but they were frequently tolerated out of necessity.
The New Deal had special relief programs aimed at the homeless, the Federal Transient Service (FTS), which operated 1933-35.
Some of the men who were forced to live in these conditions possessed building skills and were able to build their houses out of stone. Most people, however, resorted to building their residences out of box wood, cardboard, and any scraps of metal they could find, together with a stove, bedding and some cooking utensils.
Most of these unemployed residents of the Hoovervilles used public charities or begged for food from those who had housing during this era. Democrats coined other terms, such as "Hoover blanket" (old newspaper used as blanketing) and "Hoover flag" (an empty pocket turned inside out). "Hoover leather" was cardboard used to line a shoe with the sole worn through. A "Hoover wagon" was an automobile with horses tied to it because the owner could not afford gasoline; in Canada, these were known as Bennett buggies, after the Prime Minister.
|
||||||
|
||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: January 09 2009 at 9:41pm |
|||||
|
.Depression cake
....................................
Depression cake was a type of cake that was commonly made during the Great Depression. The ingredients of depression cake have relatively little or no milk, sugar, and eggs because they were either expensive or hard to get at that time.
Similar cakes are known as "War Cake" as they avoided using ingredients which were scarce, or were being conserved for the use of soldiers. A common Depression Cake is also known as "Boiled Raisin Cake," or "Eggless, Milkless, Butterless Cake." It gets the title "Boiled" due to the boiling of raisins with the sugar and spices, to make a syrup base, early in the recipe.
Some bakers do use butter in this recipe though. Boiled raisin type cakes date back at least to the American Civil War.[1]
Ingredients The ingredients include: sugar,
strong coffee, water or apple juice, shortening, dark raisins or diced pitted prunes, med. apple, unsifted all-purpose flour, baking soda, baking powder, cinnamon, allspice, cloves, nutmeg, chopped walnuts, almonds, or pecans. Also, pears were sometimes substituted with apples[2] wikipedia
....................
................................................................................................................................
Can You Make A Silk Purse From An Old Sow's Ear?
  The answer to "silk purse making", of course, is "probably not".
Size: 5 1/2" X 8 1/2" - 305 pages source |
||||||
|
||||||
|
Dr.Who
Adviser Group
Joined: January 08 2009 Status: Offline Points: 392 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: January 10 2009 at 5:36am |
|||||
|
This isn't even a recession so it can't be a depression. A recession is two or more quarters in a row where there is negative growth. So far we have had two quarters with positive growth (the first and the third).
The last depression (the great depression) happened when the sitting president (FDR) tried to fix the economy by enacting a huge government spending program (social security). If we had not just elected a president who promised to give us several huge government spending programs I would have said that the recession (which does not even qualify as a recession) would run its course just like all the other recessions that happen on average every eleven years. But since we most likely will be embarking on huge government expenditures at tax payer expense I can only hope that we learned a just a little bit from the great depression. |
||||||
|
||||||
|
Penham
Chief Moderator
Moderator Joined: February 09 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 14913 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: January 10 2009 at 6:39am |
|||||
|
if (location.pathname.match('/news/specials/crisiswallstreet/2008/index.html')) { document.write(' '); } else { document.write('Column Archive'); } Column Archive SPECIAL REPORT if (location.pathname.match('/news/specials/crisiswallstreet/2008/index.html')) { document.write('Issue #1: America\'s Money Crisis'); } else { document.write('Issue #1: America\'s Money Crisis'); } Issue #1: America's Money Crisis
< = =text/>var clickExpire = "-1";
It's official: Recession since Dec. '07The National Bureau of Economic Research declares what most Americans already knew: the downturn has been going on for some time.< ="http://i.cdn.turner.com/money/.element/ssi//2.0/cnnShare.js" =text/>< =1.2 ="http://i.cdn.turner.com/money//clickability/2200_1newlayout.js"> window.onerror=function(){clickURL=document.location.href;return true;} if(!self.clickURL) clickURL=parent.location.href;
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: December 1, 2008: 5:40 PM ET  < =1.1 ="http://i.cdn.turner.com/money/.element/ssi//2.0/Fader.js" =text/>
setTimeout("cnnImageFadeInit('031620081831launcher')",500);
cnnad_createAd("835312","http://ads.cnn.com/html.ng/site=cnn_money&cnn_money_position=220x200_ctr&cnn_money_rollup=business_news&cnn_money_section=jobs_and_economy&cnn_money_subsection=quigo¶ms.styles=fs","200","220"); < id=835312 style="VISIBILITY: ; : relative; style: " border=0 marginWidth=0 marginHeight=0 ="http://ads.cnn.com/.ng/site=cnn_money&cnn_money_=220x200_ctr&cnn_money_rollup=business_news&cnn_money_section=jobs_and_economy&cnn_money_subsection=quigo&s.styles=fs&tile=1231598068297&page.allowcompete=yes&domId=835312" Border=0 width=220 scrolling=no height=200 allowTransparency> NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The National Bureau of Economic Research said Monday that the U.S. has been in a recession since December 2007, making official what most Americans have already believed about the state of the economy . The NBER is a private group of leading economists charged with dating the start and end of economic downturns. It typically takes a long time after the start of a recession to declare its start because of the need to look at final readings of various economic measures. The NBER said that the deterioration in the labor market throughout 2008 was one key reason why it decided to state that the recession began last year. Employers have trimmed payrolls by 1.2 million jobs in the first 10 months of this year. On Friday, economists are predicting the government will report a loss of another 325,000 jobs for November. The NBER also looks at real personal income, industrial production as well as wholesale and retail sales. All those measures reached a peak between November 2007 and June 2008, the NBER said. In addition, the NBER also considers the gross domestic product, which is the reading most typically associated with a recession in the general public. Many people erroneously believe that a recession is defined by two consecutive quarters of economic activity declining. That has yet to take place during this recession. This downturn longer than most
The NBER did not give any reasons or causes of the recession. But it is widely accepted that the housing downturn, which started in 2006, is a primary cause of the broader economic malaise. The fall of housing prices from peak levels reached earlier this decade cut deeply into home building and home purchases. This also caused a sharp rise in mortgage foreclosures, which in turn resulted in losses of hundreds of billions of dollars among the nation's leading banks and a tightening of credit. The current recession is one of the longest downturns since the Great Depression of the 1930's. The last two recessions (1990-1991 and 2001) lasted eight months each, and only two of the 10 previous post-Depression downturns lasted as long as a full year, according to the NBER. In a statement, White House Deputy Press Secretary Tony Fratto said that even though the recession is now official, it is more important to focus on the steps being taken to fix the economy. "The most important things we can do for the economy right now are to return the financial and credit markets to normal, and to continue to make progress in housing, and that's where we'll continue to focus," he said. "Addressing these areas will do the most right now to return the economy to growth and job creation." President-elect Obama's transition team did not have an immediate comment on the recession announcement. But other top Democrats said this is further proof of the need for another economic stimulus package, which Obama has advocated. "With rising costs of living, rising unemployment, record foreclosures and depleted savings, we must do more to help families make ends meet," said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in a statement. "With the cooperation of our Republican colleagues, we intend to send a plan to the White House as soon as possible following President-elect Obama's inauguration next month." How long will it go?
Nonetheless, several economists said the real concern is that there is no end in sight for the downturn. Some suggested that the best case scenario for the economy is that it would reach bottom in the second quarter of 2009. And even if that happens, that would still make this recession the longest since the Great Depression. Rich Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research, said the only good news for the economy is that some of the steps already taken by the government earlier this year could start to spur growth soon. For example, he said interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which started in September 2007, "should be working their magic any day now." In February, Congress passed a $170 billion tax rebate meant to stimulate the economy. But that only boosted GDP during the second quarter. The financial market and credit crisis worsened during this summer, prompting Congress, the Treasury Department and the Fed to pump trillions of dollars into the economy through a variety of programs, including a $700 billion bailout of banks and Wall Street firms and hundreds of billions of lending by the Fed to major companies and lenders. But Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of Economic Cycle Research Institute, said that at this point, the only solution for the recession is time. "All the hand waving and real cash that policymakers are throwing at the problem won't change the fact we're stuck in this nasty recession," he said. "The ultimate cure of a recession is letting it run its course." Achuthan's research firm tracks weekly leading economic indicators that are supposed to signal a change in direction for the economy four or five months ahead of time. Those indicators are continuing to fall at a record pace. Still, he said he's not worried about the current recession turning into a depression, as many Americans fear. "Even with indicators in a tailspin, this still is only a very severe recession," he said. "There's lots of gloom, but we don't see doom." |
||||||
|
||||||
|
Penham
Chief Moderator
Moderator Joined: February 09 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 14913 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: January 10 2009 at 6:44am |
|||||
|
The source is at the very bottom of the story, you have to scroll all the way to the bottom. Even the experts are saying we are at least in a recession and have been for at least a year.
|
||||||
|
||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: January 10 2009 at 1:22pm |
|||||
|
Yes, they didn't want to focus on recession. No need to spook the masses... anyway...from what I see on the Great Depression we are doing fairly well so far... for the total picture. Although in some states they are hard hit like Calif...has 9% unemployment? But mostly the average is about 7% or so for the country. My area has jobs. So people may have to relocate into states that have more to offer. |
||||||
|
||||||
|
Dr.Who
Adviser Group
Joined: January 08 2009 Status: Offline Points: 392 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: January 12 2009 at 10:26am |
|||||
I would like to see jobs created in the sectors of the economy that will have the greatest leverage and boos the overall economy to the greatest extent. We could guess as to what those sectors might be. We can be pretty sure that already failing sectors are not the ones. But politicians are notoriously bad at not only knowing what is the right thing to do but also in doing the right thing when they know what it is. Even economist don't know what the right sectors are to be propped up. Here is an interesting read, it is called I, pencil and it is also fun: http://www.econlib.org/library/Essays/rdPncl1.html No one can predict how to do what to the economy so we are all better of with the metaphor of the invisible hand described here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invisible_hand I do urge you to read those two articles. They can change your whole perspective. |
||||||
|
||||||
|
Dr.Who
Adviser Group
Joined: January 08 2009 Status: Offline Points: 392 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: January 12 2009 at 10:59am |
|||||
Sometimes it really helps to read with a critical eye. I have snipped the article to leave just the relevant parts. Actually that is not an erroneous belief. It is one of the standard definitions of a recession. It is also the most practical. The definition used by this organization includes any downturn even if it is not declining and no matter how long or short it is. So using their definition an economy that is growing (but not as fast as politicians would like) and has been doing so for just a week can be called a recession. That is bogus. There must be some extended time frame or it is meaningless. And the logical time frame is two quarters. There should also be negative growth otherwise just saying that the growth is not as fast as we would like is meaningless too.
So if it is long compared to the many short recessions we have had is that a big deal if there is not negative growth? Because in the last year two of the quarters have had positive growth.
Recessions happen all the time. If we are in one now it is a natural part of the economy. the question is who wants to blow this out of proportion and why? We have had ten recessions since the great depression. This one is so mild it doesn't even meet the criteria we used in the past to define a recession. Recessions tend to be either mild and long or severe and short. Of course of one meddles with them they can be turned into depressions or at least made more severe or longer.
Ok there is your answer about who wants to blow it out of proportion. Who wants to bet after president Obama is in office for a few months the better definition of a recession will suddenly come into vogue and this will magically go away?
There is no end in sight but the bottom will be in 6 months. And since we don't even have negative growth now then in 6 mionths we will have even more positive growth. Gee, more positive growth sounds like an end to a fabricated recession to me.
That is correct!! We do not need government bailouts that are excuses for giving your money to other people. This is a natural cycle and we need to let it run it's course. if we mess around with it we might make it last longer, |
||||||
|
||||||
|
Penham
Chief Moderator
Moderator Joined: February 09 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 14913 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: January 12 2009 at 2:18pm |
|||||
|
From Wikipedia.
According to economists, since 1854, the U.S. has encountered 32 cycles of expansions and contractions, with an average of 17 months of contraction and 38 months of expansion[27]. However, since 1980 there have been only eight periods of negative economic growth over one fiscal quarter or more[28], and four periods considered recessions:
* Note that this latest recession doesn't meet the traditional two quarter drop in GDP, yet it is considered a recession by the NBER. I found above stated from Wikipedia. For some reason they are still saying we are in a recession, even though, it does not fit the macroeconomic definition of the reduction of the gross domestic product for two quarters. The National Bureau of Economic Research has a slightly different definition than the traditional macroeconomic definition in that it takes in other considerations such as employment, income, industrial production and wholesale-retail sales. I do believe we are in a recession, but I do not believe we are in a depression. I do believe we are headed for a depression. I do not think we should have done all these "bailouts", we should have left things alone. It would have been interesting to see what would have happened. Dr. Who, I will have to agree to disagree with you. I still feel we are in a recession. |
||||||
|
||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: January 12 2009 at 2:40pm |
|||||
|
I'm seeing that they feel construction is the sector they want to focus on. Makes sense, will take care of people, machinery, commodities, infrastructure, in a big way. I wonder if they will build that highway from Texas to Canada...with the wind power all along it? Makes an awful noise, unless they get smarter and use the wind turbines....less noise, less harm to birds.
There is a profound lack of trust out there...especially lack of trust in government. Not easy to get that back. and it won't come back by tossing $300.00 at everyone. What fool came up with that?
we need affordable healthcare... Govt. assist with higher education. Getting school and property taxes under control is paramount.
People with 645.00 mo mortgages ( !00,000.00 homes) are paying...5,500.00 per yr in school/property taxes. Can someone please tell me why every highschool in the area needs an indoor pool and a football field with night lighting that looks like the NFL?
If they put that kind of money into the mental...reather than the physical. And who plays much football in the real world? Not exactly going to get the job with that...I played great highschool football...
|
||||||
|
||||||
|
Dr.Who
Adviser Group
Joined: January 08 2009 Status: Offline Points: 392 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: January 13 2009 at 10:16am |
|||||
Good homework! hey, if you want to accept the less popular definition of a recession that is promoted primarily by a single private organization you are free to disagree with me. In a few months or a year when the new administration decides to start using the more standard definition of a recession and declares that it is over will you disagree with them too? You strike me as a person of integrity so I suppose you will. But I bet you also see that so many today are picking and choosing which definition they will use to make political hay. |
||||||
|
||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: January 13 2009 at 11:30pm |
|||||
|
China...important to our recovery
China to cool, not crash, and emerge a winner in 2009: Citi :: MENAFN ...
... .com -Monday, January 05, 2009 |
||||||
|
||||||
|
Post Reply
|
|
Tweet
|
| Forum Jump | Forum Permissions You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot create polls in this forum You can vote in polls in this forum |
Topic Options
purplepanther wrote:
