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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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WHO: Warning BF Pandemic is Imminent

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outsidethecamp View Drop Down
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    Posted: February 20 2006 at 5:39pm

WHO: Bird flu pandemic is imminent

Governments must act swiftly to prevent outbreak, officials say

Vietnamese workers in protective clothing feed chickens at a poultry farm in the outskirts of Ho Chi Minh City
A poultry farm in the outskirts of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, is considered a model for others because it has not seen a single case of disease or infection since it opened in 2001.
Adrees Latif / Reuters

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MEDPAGE TODAY
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MSNBC News Services
Updated: 3:25 p.m. ET Feb. 23, 2005

World Health Organization officials urged governments on Wednesday to act swiftly to control the spread of bird flu, warning that the world is in grave danger of a deadly pandemic triggered by the virus.

The illness has killed 45 people in Asia over the past year, in cases largely traced to contact with sick birds, and experts have warned the H5N1 virus could become far deadlier if it mutates into a form that can be easily transmitted among humans. A global pandemic could kill millions, they say.

“We at WHO believe that the world is now in the gravest possible danger of a pandemic,” Dr. Shigeru Omi, the WHO’s Western Pacific regional director, said Wednesday.

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He said the world is “now overdue” for an influenza pandemic, since mass epidemics have occurred every 20 to 30 years. It has been nearly 40 years since the last one.

Better coordination critical
Speaking at the opening of a three-day bird flu conference in Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh City, Omi said it is critical that the international community better coordinate its fight against the virus.

As bird flu experts met to devise plans to combat the H5N1 virus, scientists said they lacked knowledge about whether the strain that has led to the slaughter of tens of millions of birds has the pandemic potential of the 1918 Spanish flu that killed between 20 million and 40 million people.

They cautioned that more evidence is needed about how infectious the virus is in humans.

To become a pandemic strain, H5N1 would have to adapt sufficiently on its own, or mix its genetic material with a human virus to become highly infectious in humans who have no protection against it.

“We don’t know whether the virus that is currently circulating among poultry in southeast Asia, the H5N1, will eventually be able to reassert its genetic material with a human influenza virus. That is the key question,” Professor Albert Osterhaus, a leading European virologist at Erasmus University Hospital in Rotterdam, told Reuters in an interview.

So far the H5N1 strain has shown no evidence that it has become highly infectious in humans. Scientists also do not know how many people may have been exposed to it.

But Laurence Tiley, a molecular virologist at Cambridge University in England, said the H5N1 strain is lethal.

“It is the most likely candidate for adapting and becoming a pandemic strain because we are not going to be able to get rid of it easily,” he said.

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mightymouse View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mightymouse Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 20 2006 at 7:20pm

Thanks for post outsidethecamp.

From above article:

“We at WHO believe that the world is now in the gravest possible danger of a pandemic,” Dr. Shigeru Omi, the WHO’s Western Pacific regional director, said Wednesday.

WHO finally speaking with a straight tongue?.  Time to finish those last minute preps.  I give it three weeks - just a hunch.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 20 2006 at 7:24pm

Nah, Omi has said things like this before... tomorrow Nabarro will come out and down play everything again.  They are worse than watching a tennis match.

SZ



Edited by SophiaZoe
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Teagen Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 20 2006 at 7:32pm
If I am not mistaken this article ran Feb. 23,2005 one year ago.

WHO has really downplayed the threat since then even though it continues to spread.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mightymouse Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 20 2006 at 7:50pm
Right- should have looked at the date. I was getting ready to barricade the door and start eating my mre's.  This waiting reminds me of being back in the service.  Hurry up and wait.  All the anticipation before any action.  Then bing, bang, boom - wake up with a hangover, try to forget what just happened,  and go on. 
Nothing matters - Therefore everything matters
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote outsidethecamp Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 20 2006 at 7:52pm
Sorry...
This just showed up today in my Bird Flu Alert message inbox.  Didn't know it was "old news".

God bless us all...
Peggy in MN
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 20 2006 at 8:28pm
"John Oxford, professor of virology at Barts
hospital, London, said the likelihood of a human
avian flu pandemic is "high and within a span of, 18 months".




Monday February 20, 2006
The Guardian

The UK is braced for a possible bird flu outbreak, prompting a flurry of
tests on dead wild birds from around the country, after it was confirmed
that a duck in France had the deadly H5N1 strain.

Random samples of birds are being tested and people have been asked to
report unexplained deaths of wild birds, particularly geese, ducks and
swans.

The government has said the discovery that the bird found near Lyon in
southern France had died of the lethal strain of the virus made it "more
likely" that the disease would reach the UK.


France is the seventh European Union country to confirm it had been hit
by the disease, which can be passed to humans from direct contact with
infected birds or faeces and has claimed 91 lives since 2003.

A spokesman for the Department for Environment, Food and Rural affairs
said: "We have asked people to contact us and there have been nine
swans tested in the last week or two. All proved negative.

"The Veterinary Laboratories Agency Laboratory in Weybridge is in the
middle of a huge amount of samples form other parts of Europe. Samples
are getting sent from this country as well."
Ornithological experts have said unusually cold weather in mainland
Europe had resulted in wild birds infected with H5N1 heading towards
Britain in search of food and water.

The spread of the lethal strain has heightened fears that the disease
could mutate into a form which is easily communicable from person to
person and lead to a human flu pandemic.
Animal health minister Ben Bradshaw attempted to allay fears by stressing
that it is not inevitable that the disease would spread to this country. He
said early identification of any outbreak is paramount.

Britain had had a contingency plan in place for three-and-a-half years
and was well prepared. "We are appealing to poultry keepers to be ready
to house their birds should such an order be issued, which would happen
if there were there an outbreak to be found in this country."

John Oxford, professor of virology at Barts hospital,
London, said the likelihood of a human avian flu pandemic is "high and
within a span of, say, 18 months".



http://www.guardian.co.uk/birdflu/story/0,,1713623,00.html




http://www.24dash.com/content/news/viewNews.php?navID=47&new sID=3243

Edited by Rick
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 20 2006 at 8:36pm
Can I suggest you let people go and read the news for themselves and put
the links only on your posts. People with weak hearts might want to be
eased gently into this sort of news. Good job it was old news.

Peace for now
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote outsidethecamp Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 20 2006 at 8:41pm
Sure...

I'm new to this & wasn't sure how to go about posting news articles.

Will do in the future.

God bless us all...
Peggy in MN
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 20 2006 at 9:00pm
Maybe also change the thread title by editing it a bit. Will be good for
multiple hits though left as it is.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 20 2006 at 9:08pm

The board rules as to manner of posts... whatever the majority wants.

My vote though is for the articles to be C&P'd here.  Saves time, IMO.

Maybe Rick could do a poll????

SZ

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 20 2006 at 9:14pm
See what you mean. Was just suggesting, as many have already done, go
read first then come back here for making comments. Also copyright might
be a problem on some cut&pastes. Saving time might cost bucks if thats the
right word. 'You're the gov', I remain 'very 'umble' in your presence
SophiaZoe and always at your most respected service 'me lady'.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mightymouse Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2006 at 5:09am

For my $.02 I think the copy and paste method is definitely superior to a mere link.  This site is like a huge and ever evolving database of various types of information and opinions.  If a picture is worth 10,000 words, certainly an article is worth more than a link.  Personally when I see just a link I am apt to just skip over it (dial-up might have something to do with it) and go to the next thread.  Those with weak hearts might be better served to go read Alice In Wonderland.  If you can't take the heat - go sit in your rocker and pretend the world is a 'happy place' filled with 'birds of paradise'.  Another comment while I'm at it.  A lot of Rick's posts in picture format prevent one from selecting a snippet to comment upon (must copy the whole article) which is too redundant.  This would have a tendenancy to discourage some who like to comment upon, or bring particular attention to a piece of the article.  This is no way a negative comment to Rick, and not to be taken personally.  Just an observation.  The visual aspects of the white background is effective but compromises the usefulness of interaction.  Trade-offs and compromises.  Most everyone would like things 'their way' and can't understand why others can't agree, but as the AV will in the future prove.  There is more than one way to kill a human.  I say - damn the weak hearts - full articles ahead!

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dejuan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2006 at 5:37am

Oh my lord Mighty Mouse.  IN 21st century dial up internet access still exists???  LOL OH how spoiled I am..  Keep the articles comming we work a s a team.

 

Dejuan

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mightymouse Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2006 at 5:46am
I live in the sticks.  HeeHawVille.  Lucky to have dial-up.  Very lucky to have flush toilets.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2006 at 5:59am
We know where to come for santuary. You will be the only survivor
mightymouse

Edited by harpmandoodle
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mightymouse Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2006 at 6:12am

Don't think so.  Hopefully one of.  But I'm an organ donor also.  Probably seeing as some of my ancestors come from Scotland some 'MI5/quack' will cross the puddle and come in the middle of the night and run off with my liver.   I will awake to a sore (place where one sits) and feeling a bit 'off'.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2006 at 6:38am
"A lot of Rick's posts in picture format prevent one from
selecting a snippet to comment upon (must copy the whole article) which
is too redundant."

-------

I generally provide a link to the actual article itself, which allows anyone
to go to the site and do a quick cut and paste if they wish to extract a
snippet, and by using the "find" feature of their software, - quickly zero in
on the key word(s). That takes less time, than it takes me to find the
original information or track down a hunch.

The whole process takes the reader few seconds and clicks.

Taking a "screen shot", helps me to physically process and post the
information a little more quickly when news is breaking and I'm under
time constraints.

There are many different people, ages, and backgrounds and cultures
here. I think screen shots assist some of us pre-digital geezers , who our
rapidly accelerating towards their glorious decrepitude, emotionally
process this information.

When I have time, I'll post without the "screen shots". It's a judgement
call.

What I post represents a small fraction of the data I sift through. I still
have my day job.

How information is presented will change as the situation unfolds.

Will there be fries with that sir?


Edited by Rick
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2006 at 6:39am
Dont say I didn't warn you then Mightymouse! Always here to oblige

Edited by harpmandoodle
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mightymouse Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2006 at 6:53am
Rick - Thanks for your answer.  Makes perfect sense under the circumstances.  Appreciate your hard work.  I am sure most on this site have little time and want to get right to the 'meat' and I can't blame them and the providers feed many.   
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