It mystifies me. Several months I was covering a huge outbreak moving through most of U.K. and Europe. Hospital beds full, condition near red in many areas, and then in the middle of February media coverage stopped. We have proof of person to person transference in Avian years ago. In Indonesia, the death rate is 83%.

So- two children get sick in San Diego- maybe a thousand in Mexico- and suddenly they are talking Pandemic.

Here is the deal on Swine Flu.

Mexico is contending with an outbreak of swine flu, suspected in the deaths of dozens of people and sickening perhaps 1,000. In the United States, at least eight cases have been confirmed with the infection, all of them in California and Texas; only one person was hospitalized. Here are some questions and answers about the illness:

Joel Warner....

The Sky is Falling: An Analysis of the Swine Flu Affair of 1976

by Joel Warner

 

In 1976, due to an outbreak of influenza at Fort Dix, New Jersey, the United States set a precedent in immunology by attempting to vaccinate the entire population of the country against the possibility of a swine-type Influenza A epidemic. While a great many people were successfully immunized in a very short period of time, the National Influenza Immunization Program (NIIP) quickly became recognized as a failure, one reason being that the feared epidemic never surfaced at all. But this massive undertaking deserves more analysis than just a simple repudiation. For example, all evidence linked to the pathology, microbiology, and historical cycle of influenza and the outbreak at Fort Dix suggests that the reactions of the scientists and other personnel involved in the NIIP were correct. However, one must also acknowledge the many complications and misjudgments that plagued the program after its initiation, from biological difficulties, logistical problems, to tensions with the media. The swine flu is a historical event that needs to be evaluated, regarding both its successes and its failures, so that lessons can be learned for future immunization programs.

Quesiton: Is there money to made here? Definitely. The crash program we were headed for with Tamiflu which later proved to be moderately useless against Avian, could be quickly initiated here for big bucks.

The questions is- what is the real death rate as compared to Avian in Vietnam and Indonesia? Are we seeing 63% and 83% CFR?

How is it we have been trying to get this type of media coverage in Europe and U.K. with almost the entire hospital system about to crash or in the Netherlands- and its all over the evening news?

Is someone trying to scare someone?

If I were a raw materialist I would do an Elton John, change the lyrics of Pandemic Now to fit Swine flu like Candle in the Wind from Marilyn Monroe to whom most of the living is a non-memory to Lady Di- to whom is becoming not much more as time passes.

Is it because its in Mexico?  Since we have a large minority population, does this now strike a chord which will sell ad space and papers?  Are people so weary warn of waiting for the Pandemic that now its time to finally be right and have all that prepping and worrying justified with something that has something like 2 deaths out a thousand. What is the CFR on that?   .2% compared to 63% worldwide for Avian and 83% for Indonesia.

For one source it is .44% for ordinary non-resistant TB which is perennial.

1976: President Gerald Ford orders a nationwide vaccination program to prevent a swine-flu epidemic.

Ford was acting on the advice of medical experts, who believed they were dealing with a virus potentially as deadly as the one that caused the 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic.

The virus surfaced in February at Fort Dix, New Jersey, where 19-year-old Pvt. David Lewis told his drill instructor that he felt tired and weak, although not sick enough to skip a training hike. Lewis was dead with 24 hours.

The autopsy revealed that Lewis had been killed by "swine flu," an influenza virus originating in pigs. By then several other soldiers had been hospitalized with symptoms. Government doctors became alarmed when they discovered that at least 500 soldiers on the base were infected without becoming ill.

conclusion: so for now I will watch and wait. Of course, I will finish my writing.. since it really doesn't matter what virus it is, the song remains the same.

Is it flu season anymore? Not really? What happened to all the - well its not flu season any more so its not a problem- flu is over.  Guess flu is not over.

We were writing about recombination and how three strains merged in Egypt and no one was particularly interested. In fact, there is a new strain of some kind now.

But, what can one say.

US medical authorities expressed strong concern Friday about an unprecedented multi-strain swine flu outbreak that has killed at least 60 people in Mexico and infected seven people in the United States.

"It's very obvious that we are very concerned. We've stood up emergency operation centers," Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) spokesman Dave Daigle told AFP.

One major source of concern was that the virus included strains from different types of flu.

"This is the first time that we've seen an avian strain, two swine strains and a human strain," said Daigle, adding that the virus had influenza strains from European and Asian swine, but not from North American swine. 

comment1: geez what about the swine flu strains we were posting about in China last year and the Avian right next them. Anybody follow up on that?

comment: I've been posting on the Pack Theory for more than a year- the one where there are multi-strains (3-4)  traveling together.  So this is so revolutionary... We have been talking about H1N1, H3N2, and H7 for months. 

Its infected 7 people in the U.S.

So much for the calm and non-alarmist reaction from the medical community. Just exactly what do they plan to do against a virus that is multi-strain and mutating?

So much for not even hinting about a Pandemic before everyone is in place and prepared. Nope, the media with 7 people in the United States infected is talking Pandemic.

Well, maybe I have given jaded a new meaning to myself. I guess I should go back to writing about building brick stoves and organizing communities when there are BITS (Bodies in the Streets).

But you see.. this is the kind of Pandemic that was wanted all along. Everyone can shine on this one with an extremely low CFR, massive need for vaccine that they maybe can make and "everybody" needs. What a money maker.

Now here is the deal. Mexico City  is shut down and everyone is wearing masks? Why? Our flu season in Bluefield was worse than this. I ran a 103 degree temp for a week. So did many of us. My son ran 105. There were no reporters at the hospital for Skye- baby being washed down to lower temp because he has the flu and almost died.

Weird science.

Well, give it a week. Let us see the numbers in the week. And then if the numbers are not scary- well give it a month- then we will get back to prepping for the real thing.

Medclinician

I smell the scent of research, grants, and drug company money. What a great way to get our mind off the economy, social security, unemployment (General Motors shut down.. any news of that tonight.. I mean for every job lost- another 10 will be gone) for months. Nope-a lot of workers are going home tonight who won't a job for months. That is the real news.

Albert wrote: Hi Med, there are 1000 infected in the last 30 days with a CFR of .07%, which is equal to that of the Spanish Flu.  Because this flu virus has adapted to humans, and made the leap as they say, it now has the "potential" to sweep the globe in a matter of weeks.  "Flu" viruses have more potential to spread globally than compared to other viruses that tend to usually die out.  A flu virus just doesn't die out as easy, and they only get worse.   So it's the "potential" of what this particular new virus might do.  The 1918 h1n1 strain killed 20 million in the first 6 weeks, and experts fear that this one has the potential to spread in that same capacity.  Sustained human to human transmission is rare, but when it happens with a flu virus, it could be all she wrote.

Hey there Albert. Well, I sure am feeling like the lone wolf on this one. Here is the data I am getting.

Epidemiologists are particularly concerned because the only people killed so far were normally less-vulnerable young people and adults. It’s possible that more vulnerable populations — infants and the aged — had been vaccinated against other strains, and that those vaccines may be providing some protection.

All eight U.S. patients recovered from symptoms that were like those of the regular flu, mostly involving fever, cough and sore throat, though some of them also experienced vomiting and diarrhea.

How is this new?

http://www.answers.com/topic/swine-influenza

"In swine, 3 influenza A virus subtypes (H1N1, H3N2, and H1N2) are circulating throughout the world. In the United States, the classic H1N1 subtype was exclusively prevalent among swine populations before 1998; however, since late August 1998, H3N2 subtypes have been isolated from pigs. Most H3N2 virus isolates are triple reassortants, containing genes from human (HA, NA, and PB1), swine (NS, NP, and M), and avian (PB2 and PA) lineages

H5N1 made the jump from bird to human and also probably H2H two years ago and this was verified by published papers in Washington state.

Currently the cancer death rate in the United States per year is .2%

Will a .007% CFR even effect the infrastructure?

I guess I have been looking at some new CFRs for the Pandemic of 31%.

One thing is for sure. The makers of Tamiflu are going to make a lot of money on this one. The only problem is it is likely to mutate as it did in the H1N1 types to be resistant. It has been said the older people aren't getting it because the vaccines they have had are effective. Also, the question is also- how much herd immunity does the general population have to this already. In 4 weeks- let's go back to 1918 - how much had it spread?

Well, this is how fast it spread...

Early in the morning of March 11, 1918, a young private reported to the Army hospital at Fort Riley, Kansas, complaining of fever, sore throat, and headache. Then, another sick soldier appeared, then another and another. By noon, the hospital had more than one hundred cases; in a week, there were five hundred. Forty-eight soldiers died at Fort Riley that spring. No one knew why.

So in the U.S. in one hospital we had a 500% spread in one week.

In September, the disease spread to the civilian population. It moved swiftly down the eastern seaboard to New York, Philadelphia, and beyond. Anna Milani remembers sitting on her front step one day: "Diagonally across from us a fifteen-year-old girl was just buried. Toward evening, we heard a lot of screaming going on. In that same house, a little eighteen-month-old baby passed away." That month, 12,000 Americans died of influenza.

It was a flu unlike any other. People could be healthy in the morning and dead by nightfall.

Is this the prognosis we are seeing for this virus? One interesting thing is the lack of specific symptom information, fevers (I did hear 104 in one case).

back to present time...

testing indicates some mainstream antiviral medications work against the virus. So we already have, so far antivirals that work. This they did not have in 1918.

So, I guess time will tell. If it is the biggee time to crank out those paragraphs huh...

The second weird factor is the way the Mexicans are taking it. They are reacting extremely intensely with masks and so forth. What are we doing now to help Mexico contain this aside from pronouncing it uncontainable.

Maybe my middle name is contrapoint.  I can feel the adrenaline when things are said like "it can't be contained, it is too late."

If CDC is trying to keep us all calm and so forth, why state this? We sure are getting like zip data on how these people caught it. None of them, or few seem related or even in contact with each other and no pigs. So- how much detective work has been done to see if there is a common vector to which they were all exposed.. like a place- or person.

Yes, airborne is a spreader. But the common cold is airborne.

I guess its a wait and see thing. In two weeks if we have 500,000 people with it, and clusters all over, we have a problem. President Ford sure went for this one in big way and it was one of the biggest false alarms in the last hundred years.

Much unlike my usual excitable posts, I want to be right about this. I want to be the voice of reason in the midst of alarm. I truly think we have much bigger fish to fry in some really vile biowarfare type hantavirus and designer prions in Class 5 labs. This is the take a whiff and in 6 hours you drop stuff.

Well.. good luck on this. Preppers, I guess your ready. At the almost micro CFR even if we lose a lot- it will be less than die from smoking or cancer, it seems.

It a febrile thing, so watch for temps. You realize the mere statement we can't contain this is not true. We can easily set up infrared scanner in airports and detect passengers with fevers. We especially can do this with border traffic- and the question sticking with me.. is was there a plane that came into San Diego because this would match that scenario perfectly, that had sick people on it.

Medclinician

It's a big deal because if the figures that Mexico have reported are correct, 7 % of people that are infected are croaking.

Penham, I agree with you when you are looking at the fact that the death rate in Mexico is 7% and they are nextdoor...we truly may be in real trouble.

We need to keep communicating so that we have knowledge. Knowledge is power.

alpha480v wrote: It's a big deal because if the figures that Mexico have reported are correct, 7 % of people that are infected are croaking.

This is not accurate.  Only 24 of the deaths have been officially confirmed. Sixty deaths were suspected, and once again we launch into the suspected versus the actual data, versus speculation.

One source, today Saturday 4/25/09 states 20 have been confirmed. This does not put the the death toll at 7%.

http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/html/20090424T230000-0500_150100_OBS_SWINE_FLU_OUTBREAK_WORRIES_WORLD_HEALTH_AUTHORITIES.asp

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said tests show some of the Mexico victims died from the same new strain of swine flu that sickened eight people in Texas and California.

Mexico put the confirmed toll at 20 dead, but 40 other fatalities were being probed, and at least 943 nationwide were sick from the suspected flu, the health department said.

Scientists said the virus combines genetic material from pigs, birds and humans in a way researchers have not seen before.

"We are very, very concerned," spokesman Thomas Abraham said.

These numbers put us at 2.1%.

What still mystifies me as we have had outbreaks in Zairie and the Congo of Ebola with numbers 30 to 40 times this CFR and no one was that concerned. The outbreak in Nigeria just last year was gruesome. Also, in the U.S. today we are seeing no new cases of the virus.

I seem to be hearing the word concerned over and over. We know that there are dozens, if not hundreds of strains of stuff currently mutating in the world, and outbreaks in dozens of countries, but the media is picking this one up with a vengeance.

And once again, as in Egypt with hundreds of suspected cases, there were only a few confirmed.

Coverup? Quite the opposite. Overkill.

To be fair, of course HIV started with just one patient zero and then became a serious problem. What we have here is an outbreak and a lot of worried people, surprisingly the most of all .gov.

In my other threads I posted and reposted that there are extremely grave issues and events happening throughout the world. For one, we have an extremely bad situation in Pakistan, GM just shut down putting a lot of people out of work, and I personally see this as a smoke screen to distract the public from other a lot more serious problems.

If anyone will actually go to the official government CDC site, beyond the "statements" being quoted you will find much different numbers as of 10 pm. EST last night.

http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/investigation.htm

According to the official CDC page

Human Swine Influenza Investigation

April 24, 2009 22:00 EST

Human cases of swine influenza A (H1N1) virus infection have been identified in the U.S. in San Diego County and Imperial County, California as well as in San Antonio, Texas. Internationally, human cases of swine influenza A (H1N1) virus infection have been identified in Mexico.

Investigations are ongoing to determine the source of the infection and whether additional people have been infected with similar swine influenza viruses.

CDC is working very closely with state and local officials in California, Texas, as well as with health officials in Mexico, Canada and the World Health Organization

Note: So according to CDC at present - only 7 cases have been confirmed by the CDC in Mexico.

The media is having a field day as well as the blogs on the Internet. Many sites have us halfway to a Pandemic based on 8 confirmed cases in the U.S. (as of 10 pm - last night) and

7 in Mexico.

So, here is the question and quit bluntly. Is CDC being totally transparent on this? The link is the most current link I could find to official ..gov data.

Medclinician

Medclinician

Like what the US Government says can be believed. Please. They are not exactly known as the bastion of truth. Governments are the same the world over. Lie and twist stats to make it seem not as bad as it really is. Mexico's government is no different.

We have to remember that we are dealing with a country in the tropical region.  They have a lot of illmess from mosquitos.....dengue etc. There is also illness from mumps...measels.  People are not vaccinated the way we are.  There may be a lot of coinfection.  That would cause a higher death rate.  Also...sadly, there is a new type of bug causing  Resp distress...animal origin.  I'll look for it.

I just called a friend of mine who is an epidemiologist and is on the Panflu task force in my state.  She participated in the CDC teleconference today and she said that everyone is very serious about this.  I said "This looks like it could be the real deal" and she said "It's very serious".  She is not a panic person, but she and the other offcials are ramping up the statewide systems preparing.  I think the government is doing the right thing by not pushing the panic button, and it will be very interesting to see if the WHO level is advanced in the next 48 hours.  I believe it will.  Better to be safe than sorry. 

alpha480v wrote: It's a big deal because if the figures that Mexico have reported are correct, 7 % of people that are infected are croaking.

just to put this into perspective

From all the sources out there pumping out numbers
58 dead
68 dead etc.. lets average that to 60 dead..

1000 people infected (so called official number)

1000 divided by 60 = 17 rounded up..

Just in Mexico city alone there are 20 million people
So.......
20,000,000 divided by 1000 = 20,000

Twenty thousand times 17 (20000 * 17) = 340,000 potential deaths just in Mexico city.

World wide there is roughly 6 billion people .. That would be around 100+ million deaths
More then likely the numbers would be much much higher then that considering the medical infrastructure just can not handle that many hospital cases, IE more people would die from not being able to get proper medical attention.


All this is based on numbers that are not hard facts though.. The infected Numbers are much likely to be much higher and the deaths could be higher also.. At this time it is mostly speculation. Don't kid yourself though.. This is not something to ignore or trivialize.

I wondered:  Do you work in health care?  I mean this honestly, not sarcastic...   Over the last 10 years or so I have grown to not trust our media coverage.  I was watching a news broadcast on Ebola in 96, when we had cases show in the US, and coverage was blocked mid broadcast, cut to commercial, and it came back on another topic like it never happened.  I watched the news for days, and no mention of the prior information was ever shown.  I feel that a good bit of the information we see now is censored for what they feel we should know.  This is coming from an honor grad and a Chem major, not a crackpot with conspiratory syndrome.  I am replying to your post b/c you are correct w/ your numbers on mortality and prior info, and seem to know your stuff;  OK, and,  by the way, I live in Atlanta, have an 8 yr old who is recovering from flu symptoms and a 104 fever (our Dr did not do a flu test, but did a throat culture, a blood culture, and CBC among others, and determined she had a viral infection of unknown origin), and myself and two co-workers have the same virus.  I am going back to the Dr to be checked for bronchial pneumonia tomorrow as I have a horrible cough and tingling/tightness in my chest that wont leave...   anyway, I believe I will be fine, I simply am still up @ 1 am b/c I can't sleep for coughing (hence I am here) (and rambling b/c I should have been asleep hours ago, sorry...)  but that last 10 lines is my way of wondering if this new flu is what we have since I know it is viral and we meet all of the symptoms, but did not have a flu test.  Oh, out of curiosity, my daughter and I both had very red eyes that felt dry and stung, hers were puffy and looked sleepy, mine had some matter in them when I woke up, but seem to be recovering OK, about 4 to 5 days into being sick.  I believe it comes w/ whatever we have caught.  But like I said, it is too late and I am too sleepy and sick to continue for now. 

So.  Your post and your numbers tell me you are an inelligent person.  Do you trust our media to tell us all of the truth?

brandyrenea wrote: I wondered:  Do you work in health care?  I mean this honestly, not sarcastic...   Over the last 10 years or so I have grown to not trust our media coverage.  I was watching a news broadcast on Ebola in 96, when we had cases show in the US, and coverage was blocked mid broadcast, cut to commercial, and it came back on another topic like it never happened.  I watched the news for days, and no mention of the prior information was ever shown.  I feel that a good bit of the information we see now is censored for what they feel we should know.

But wait- what about this...

Iowan has swine flu

Category: General Epidemiology • Infectious disease • Influenza • Iowa/area news • Public health • Various viruses
Posted on: January 8, 2007 1:00 PM, by Tara C. Smith

note: This was posted on January 8, 2007. So- what's the deal. We had swine flu in the U.S. more than two years ago. And a mix as well.

http://scienceblogs.com/aetiology/2007/01/iowan_has_swine_flu.php

Just looking from a different angle, maybe the government wants to get a handle on this as quickly as possible because they want to continue to tap into big businesses source of cheap labor across the border. If this really blows up people would demand the borders be closed and that illegal immigrants be rounded up and sent back home or quarantined until this all passes leaving a lot of businesses without the cheap labor that is keeping their companies afloat in these hard times. With such a high unemployment rate I'm sure plenty of people would love to at least exist on minimum wage jobs that would be left behind by illegals.

The deaths in Mexico are, thus far, unexplained, but one thing that most analysts seem to agree on is that the victims all arrived at the hospital after it was far too late. Combining that with lack of access to medicines, I won't be worried until more severe US cases pop up. 

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Item Catalog Number: 00955
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The formula contains PARACTIN, an extract derived from an herb that has been used in Asia and India for thousands of years to help with inflammation, and provides significant seasonal support.* Among the active ingredients of this medicinal herb is andrographolide, a phytochemical that exerts powerful immune-boosting effects on the human body.13* The formula's patented blend of these andrographolides helps control damaging inflammation caused by cytokines, easing symptomatic discomfort and speeding recovery.14* Only Immune Protect with Paractin contains both beta glucans and PARACTIN to help boost immunity and help with inflammation.*

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One capsule should be taken daily, especially during the fall and winter months, when immunity is low. The beta-1,3-D glucan complex takes about five days to prime the immune system for optimal protection, so daily supplementation is highly recommended. (To assist recovery, up to six capsules per day can be taken as needed on a temporary basis.)

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Wellmune WGP 3-6 (highly purified Beta 1,3/1,6 Glucan from a unique strain of Baker's Yeast)
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Camu camu (Myrciaria dubia) extract (wildcrafted berry) [std. to 20% natural vitamin C (50 mg)]
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Vitamin C (from camu camu extract)
50 mg

PARACTIN (Bioactive 14-Neo-Andro Compound) (Andrographis paniculata) extract (organic leaf) [patented blend of Andrographilides, 14-Deoxyandrographolides, and neoandrographolides]
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