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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

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Mary008 View Drop Down
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.
 
 
 
Thank you to Elver for this link....
 
 
 
Gary Null Speaking Out at the NYS Assembly Hearing (10-13-2009) - Zoi Florosz (Cameras) | Gabriel Amauru (Video Editor/Motion Artist) | Steve Long (Video Editor) | Bing Thoven (Audio Design) | Richard Polonetsky (Producer) | Gary Null (Director/Executive Producer)

There are 3 videos.  The links to the other 2 are on the right.

 
 
 
 
.......................
 
 
 
GlaxoSmithKline
 
Pandemrix
...........................
 
 
 
There are no data on administration of AS03-adjuvanted vaccines before or following other
 
 
types of influenza vaccines intended for pre-pandemic or pandemic use
 
 
The side effects listed below have occurred with Pandemrix in clinical
studies in adults, including the elderly and in children aged from 3-9 years:

Very common:
........................
Headache
 
Tiredness
 
Pain, redness, swelling or a hard lump at the injection site
 
Fever
 
Aching muscles, joint pain
 

Common:
..................
 
Warmth, itching or bruising at the injection site
 
Increased sweating, shivering, flu-like symptoms
 
Swollen glands in the neck, armpit or groin
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Hi, Mary,
 
Have a question about the posting where Novartis claims the vaccine is inactivated.  Do you think this means attenuated or is it a killed virus?
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Mary008 View Drop Down
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.
 
hi... good question...       same...     inactivated or 'killed'
 
 used so far... outside the US.
 
 
 
 
What Pandemrix contains
......................................
 
 Active substance:

Split influenza virus, inactivated, containing antigen* equivalent to:

A/California/7/2009 (H1N1)v-like strain (X-179A)

3.75 micrograms** per 0.5 ml dose

* propagated in eggs

** expressed in microgram haemagglutinin

This vaccine complies with the WHO recommendation and EU decision

for the pandemic.

 Adjuvant:

The vaccine contains an ‘adjuvant’ AS03 to stimulate a better response.

This adjuvant contains squalene (10.69 milligrams), DL-α-tocopherol

(11.86 milligrams) and polysorbate 80 (4.86 milligrams).

 
 
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.
 
Draw imaginary line down from each red arrow to compare years, 2009 slightly outside
 
(The  little red line jutting up from the last curve..at 3rd arrow.)
 
As you can see... we are a bit outside the usual area as compared to years before...
 
Not alarming at this point.
 
 
 
Week 41
................
 
 
    A/H1N1 is 3,378  cases.....     out of     12,943    Influenza Like ....  Cases tested
 
or...
 
 
"... in clinical laboratory specimens (29% of all specimens tested are positive for
influenza A and all of those subtyped are pandemic H1N1 2009 virus."

This means that all Respiratory  illnes .... other than Influenza ...
 
is causing 71% of illness.    so...   what is it called?    
 
 
                                           >                       >                                                              >
 
During week 41, 6.9% of all deaths reported through the 122-Cities Mortality Reporting System were due to P&I. This percentage was above the epidemic threshold of 6.6% for week 41. Including week 41, P&I mortality has been above threshold for three consecutive weeks.
Pneumonia%20And%20Influenza%20Mortality
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.
 
There is a lot of illness out there...  From what I see of the Sentinal Reports related by
 
CDC around the country ... the Emergency Declaration by the President is prudent.
 
The good news is... so far the Pneumonia and Influenza Mortality is not off the charts...
 
at this point.  See Above...07- 2008 was worse....than 08-2009
 
 
........................................
 
 
 
and on the World Around us... this out from the CDC-
 
 
 
 
 

"... Although influenza activity is low in most countries in Europe, in Belgium, Israel,
the Netherlands, Norway, and parts of the United Kingdom consultation ILI/ARI rates
are above baseline levels.

 
... Rates of respiratory illness in Eastern Europe and Northern Asia are increasing but
are not yet at levels normally seen in an influenza season (baseline levels are not
defined in many countries of the area).

Of note, the proportion of cases in Asia that are related to seasonal influenza A(H3N2)
continue to decline globally as the proportion related to pandemic H1N1 2009 virus
increases.
 
 
Currently, only East Asia is reporting any significant numbers of influenza
A(H3N2) isolates.
 
 
In tropical areas of the world, rates of illness are generally declining, with a few
exceptions. Cuba, Colombia, and El Salvador are reporting increases in the tropical
region of the Americas.

In tropical Asia, of the countries that are reporting this week, all report decreases in
respiratory disease activity.

The temperate region of the southern hemisphere has no significant pandemic related
activity in the past week.
 
.........................
 
 
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Hi Mary :>)

It's so far fairly quiet here in my neck of the woods. Will probably change very soon though. My best, here in the Catskill Mtn's, Coyote
Long time lurker since day one to Member.
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hi coyote... 
 
Here also.  No school closings ... nothing in the news.
 
You all stay well.
 
 
ages and numbers of people hospitalized from flu
 
(they are not accurate on.. if this is a running total?  from begining of "flu season?"
 
 
NY Health Dept...
 
The number of people hospitalized with flu is currently low and appears to be increasing when compared to last week.
 
...................................
 
Downstate..Higher population... more Flu.
....................................................................
 

Flu-like Illness in NYS Hospital Emergency Departments as Percentage of Total Emergency Department Visits, by Region (year to date)

Map%20of%20new%20york%20state%20showing%20the%205%20regions Follow%20this%20link%20to%20view%20a%20table%20of%20flu-like%20illness%20in%20hospital%20emergency%20departments%20as%20percentage%20of%20total%20emergency%20department%20visits,%20by%20region%20%28year%20to%20date%29

 
 
 
 
 
 

Age Groups for Hospitalized Flu Patients for week ending 10/17/09

Follow%20this%20link%20to%20view%20a%20table%20of%20groups%20for%20hospitalized%20flu%20patients

 
 
 
Mary008
 
 
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Mary008 View Drop Down
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.
 
 
Safe
........
 
 
Made The Same Was As Seasonal Flu Vaccines
.............................................................................
 

BUT
 
...clinical data at the time
 
when pandemic vaccines are first administered
 
will inevitably be

limited.

 
Further testing of safety
 
and effectiveness
 
will need to take place

after

administration of the vaccine has begun.
 

( That limited Clinical Data, and testing    after    administration of the vaccine,
makes for a warm and fuzzy trust in it. )
 
 
Safety of pandemic vaccines

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 briefing note 6
 
 
6 AUGUST 2009 | GENEVA -- WHO is aware of some media reports that have expressed concern about the safety of vaccines for pandemic influenza. The public needs to be reassured that regulatory procedures in place for the licensing of pandemic vaccines, including procedures for expediting regulatory approval, are rigorous and do not compromise safety or quality controls.

Vaccines are among the most important medical interventions for reducing illness and deaths during a pandemic. However, to have the greatest impact, pandemic vaccines need to be available quickly and in large quantities.

During the 1957 and 1968 pandemics, vaccines arrived too late to be used as an effective mitigation tool during the more severe phases of the pandemics. Influenza vaccines had not yet been developed when the 1918 pandemic swept around the world, eventually killing an estimated 50 million people.
 
In 2007, as part of preparedness for an influenza pandemic, WHO worked together with health officials, regulatory authorities, and vaccine manufacturers to explore a broad range of issues surrounding the regulatory approval of pandemic vaccines. [1]
 

Ways were sought
 
to shorten

the time between the emergence
 
of a pandemic virus

and the availability of safe and effective vaccines.

Different regulatory pathways were assessed,

and

precautions                          needed to ensure quality, safety, and effectiveness

were set out in detail.
 
Fast-track procedures for approval
...........................................................
 
Regulatory authorities have shown great flexibility in developing

procedures
 
for fast-tracking the approval and licensing of pandemic vaccines.
 
In some cases,
 
pandemic vaccines
 
are not regarded by regulatory authorities as entirely “new” vaccines,

as they build
 
on the technology
 
used to produce vaccines for seasonal influenza,
 
established procedures for testing and regulatory control,
 
and an extensive body of safety data.
 
In such cases, approval procedures are similar to those
 
applied to "strain changes"
 
made each year
 
when seasonal vaccines are modified
 
to match circulating viruses in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.
 

Specific regulatory procedures have been devised

to expedite

the approval of pandemic vaccines.
 

In the USA, for example,

fewer data are required

when the manufacturer
 
already has
 
a licensed
influenza vaccine

and intends to use the same    manufacturing process

for its pandemic vaccine.
 
In the European Union, the European Medicines Agency
 
uses a rolling review procedure

whereby manufacturers can submit sets of data
 
for regulatory review
 
as they become available,

without

having to wait

until all data
 
can be submitted together in a single formal application.
 
 
Also in Europe, some manufacturers have conducted advance studies
 
using a so-called
 
"mock-up"
 vaccine.
 
Mock-up vaccines contain an active ingredient

for an influenza virus
 
that has not circulated
 
recently in human populations
 
and thus mimics
 
the novelty of a pandemic virus.

Such      advance studies             can greatly expedite regulatory approval.
 
 

Special safety concerns
 
Influenza vaccines have been used for more than 60 years and have an established record of safety in all age groups. While some serious adverse events have been reported, these have been rare.
 
 
Nonetheless, special safety issues will inevitably arise during a pandemic when vaccine is administered on a massive scale. For example, adverse events too rare to show up even in a large clinical trial may become apparent when very large numbers of people receive a pandemic vaccine.
 
Some adverse events will be coincidental-  that is, associated in time with vaccine administration, yet not directly caused by the vaccine.
 
Genuine adverse events

directly caused by the vaccine may also occur,
but cannot be predicted

in advance.
 
Given the safety record of seasonal vaccines,
such events are expected to be rare.
 
 
 

Time constraints mean
 
that clinical data at the time when pandemic vaccines are first administered
 
will inevitably be limited.
 
 
Further testing of safety and effectiveness will need to take place
 
after administration of the vaccine has begun.
 
 
 
For these reasons,
 
WHO advises all countries
 
administering pandemic vaccines to conduct intensive monitoring for safety and efficacy,
 
 
and many countries have plans in place for doing so.
 
 
On the positive side,
 
mass vaccination campaigns can generate
 
significant safety data within a few weeks.
 
 
International sharing of data from such post-marketing surveillance will be vital in guiding risk-benefit assessments and determining whether changes in vaccination policies are needed. WHO has developed standardized protocols for data collection and reporting in real-time, and will communicate findings to the international community via its web site.
_________________________
[1] Regulatory preparedness for human pandemic influenza vaccines. Report of a WHO Expert Committee on Biological Standardization. Geneva: World Health Organization, 2007 [pdf 625kb]
 
ex.html
 
 
 
 
 
...................
 
 
 
Knowing that there is a lack of normal Clinical Data to go by is a       Red Flag
 
pointing to the need for Government assistance for people who may be adversely affected
 
by  Fast Tract Vaccines.
 
 
 
 
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.
 
 
What Is Going On In The EU?
................................................
........................................................
........................................................................
 
 H1N1 Pandemic Vaccine
.............................................
 
 
 
 
 
 
Excipients enable enhanced functionality,
 
besides helping to innovate drug formulations and extend patents.
 
Oh really...

Here is the innovative, patent extending list of ingredients-

 

 

 
excipients
 
 
Suspension vial:
Polysorbate 80
Octoxynol 10................................................  sperm killer?
Thiomersal (5 micrograms)
Sodium chloride (NaCl)
Disodium hydrogen phosphate (Na2HPO4)
Potassium dihydrogen phosphate (KH2PO4)
Potassium chloride (KCl)
Magnesium chloride (MgCl2)
Water for injections
Emulsion vial:
Sodium chloride (NaCl)
Disodium hydrogen phosphate (Na2HPO4)
Potassium dihydrogen phosphate (KH2PO4)
Potassium chloride (KCl)
Water for injections
Plus
.............
AS03 (for "Adjuvant System 03") is the trade name for a squalene-based immunologic
 
adjuvant used in various vaccine products by
 
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK). It is used, for example, in GSK's A/H1N1 pandemic flu vaccine Pandemrix.
A dose of AS03 adjuvant contains[1]
10.69 mg squalene
11.86 mg DL-α-tocopherol
4.86 mg polysorbate 80
and
............
 
Missing information ...
Antigen/content
Cell Line?
Nutrient?
 
 
There are currently no data available on the use of Pandemrix in pregnancy.
 
Excipients: the vaccine contains 5 micrograms thiomersal
 
 
This vaccine complies with the WHO recommendation and EU decision for the pandemic.
 
 
h832en.pdf
 
 
 
 
.................
 
 
 
 

they give half the adult dose to a 6 mo old baby   :O
.............................................................................................
 
 
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.
 
 

National Vaccine Information Center
..............................................................
America's  Vaccine Safety WatchDog
 
 
Found
 
39335 events
 
with
 
Vaccine is FLU
 
 
 
Here-
 
 
.....................
 
 
 
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.
 
 
So... which one of these scenarios is playing out?
.........................................................................
 
 
 
All scenarios were evaluated under the assumption that
 
vaccination takes place early enough
 
so that the vaccinated persons have developed immunity
 
before the introduction
 
of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in the community.
.............................................................................................................................
 
(That right there seems to eliminate ...  everything ...    Let's get a Coke)
 

... starts early so that the first vaccinated persons develop an immune response

when the cumulative AR is 1%        ( laughed, Coke fizz went up my nose)
 
 
In all scenarios, 80% vaccination coverage was assumed (total coverage).
 
(80% of designated people vaccinated seems an unrealistic Goal)
 

Prioritisation scenarios as per CDC
...............................................................
........................................................................
...................................................................................
 
 
 
A)  If No Vaccine For Population
.......................................................

34.5%  of the population is expected to become ill.  
 
 
 
 
B)  Priority Groups
...................................
6 mo. to age 4 and high risk 5 to 18 yrs... Preg. women and caring for
children under 6 mo. ... Health Care/Emerg. personnel
 
Vaccination before epidemic would have negligible impact on  AR  (% of illness)
 
 

 
C)  Recommended Groups
...............................................

All of the people in B above plus,  6 months to age 24 and high-risk

individuals 25- to 64 years.

Vaccinating them before the epidemic   over all    and age specific

AR (Illness Attack Rate)  in the range of Seasonal Flu...   5% to 15% illness.
 
 
 
D)  Vaccinating early       DURING     the >>>> epidemic
 
when illness is at or under 1%  ...a predicted result in Illness 15.2% -19.9%.
 
 
 
 
E)   If vaccination is initiated at a >>>   Later Stage ...

80% of the whole population vaccinated >>  at intensive daily vaccination rates,

would reduce illness to 15%
 
...........................................
 
source-
 
Eurosurveillance, Volume 14, Issue 41, 15 October 2009
A MODELLING STUDY TO ASSESS THE IMPACT
OF VACCINATION TIMING AND
PRIORITISATION STRATEGIES
 
 
 
......................
 
 
Mary008
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.
 
 
Fight erupts in line at Nevada swine flu clinic
...............................................................................
 
(AP) - 2 hours ago
 
 
RENO, Nev. - A fight broke out Thursday at a Reno, Nev., clinic giving shots for swine flu
 
when someone reportedly tried to cut in line.
 
 
D9BL2C
G00
 
 
 
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.
 
 
Up to 5.7 mln US swine flu cases in four months: study
..................................................................................
 
 

(AFP)- 3 hours ago

 
 
WASHINGTON - Up to 5.7 million people in the United States may have been infected with
 
swine flu in the first four months of the outbreak, or more than 100 times the number of
 
laboratory-confirmed cases that were reported, a study said Thursday.
 

Article here-

 
 
 
..................
 
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.
 
File:Makkahi%20mukarramah.jpg
 
 
 
Saudis Try to Head Off Swine Flu Fears Before Hajj
............................................................................................
 
 
 
By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.
Published: October 29, 2009
 
Every year, the single largest gathering on the planet is the annual pilgrimage to

Mecca: 2.5 million people from 160 countries packed into a small city in Saudi Arabia

for five days.
 
 
 
 
 
 
Mary008
 
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Portland_panorama3.jpg
Portland Oregon from the east. By en:User:Fcb981/Eric Baetscher
File:Portland%20panorama3.jpg
Portland Oregon by Eric Baetscher
 
 

 

 

More swine flu vaccine due next week; but shortage persists

 

By Don Colburn, The Oregonian

October 29, 2009, 3:30PM
 
 
As of Monday, Oregon had received only enough vaccine to inoculate about 6 percent of the nearly 2 million Oregonians in those high-priority groups.

About 90 percent of next week's shipment will be in the form of injectable vaccine rather than FluMist nasal spray, officials say.
 
 
Article here-
tml
 
 
 
 
Mary008
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Originally posted by Mary008 Mary008 wrote:


File:Makkahi%20mukarramah.jpg



Mary, Remind me to never wear a Flowered Hawaiian shirt in Saudi Arabia. I wouldn't blend in when on vacation.   
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perhaps something more subdued...   from the 60's?
 
File:Vintage%20aloha%20shirt.JPG
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.
 
 
You Can Get A Flu Test Kit
............................................
 
 
Go In With Friends/family?
 
 
(I have no connection)
 
 
 
From Amazon.com
 

QuickVue Influenza A+B test, 25 tests per Box

Other products by QUIDEL
No customer reviews yet. Be the first.
Price: $499.99
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In Stock.
Ships from and sold by MedexSupply
 
 
 
 
 
 
Product Description
Quidel's CLIA-waived QuickVue® Influenza A+B test provides you with differential A or B test results allowing you to test and treat in just one visit. Prompt type-specific diagnosis enables a choice of antiviral therapy, helps avoid the overuse of antibiotics, and prevents healthcare costs related to unnecessary testing and treatment. The QuickVue Influenza A+B test has also been shown to detect cultured avian influenza viruses, including avian Influenza A subtype H5N1 virus; however, as with other rapid tests for influenza, the ability of the QuickVue Influenza A+B test to detect influenza Type A in patients infected with H5N1 has not been established. The QuickVue Influenza A+B test is CLIA waived, sensitive and specific, giving you the results you need. Right. Now. Rapid Diagnosis and Treatment Identifies influenza Type A or B in positive samples,
 
 
in about 10 minutes, for better patient management decisions. Most patients tested can be diagnosed and treated in just one visit. Accurate Detection QuickVue® Influenza A+B test detects both types A and B viral antigens. Accurate detection with nasal swab samples: 94% sensitivity and 90% specificity for type A 70% sensitivity and 97% specificity for type BEasy to Use 3 steps 1 reagent, 90 seconds hands-on time. 1 test procedure provides results for both A and B.
 
 
 
Convenient Packaging Each kit contains everything needed to perform the test, including foam-tipped nasal swabs and Positive and Negative Controls. Available in 25-test kit. Room temperature storage with 24-month shelf life from date of manufacture. Transport swab set also available separately. Features and Benefits:Feature: Provides A or B results from one test procedure.Benefit: No redundant procedure required for differentiated results The product referenced on this detail page is sold be 25/bx.
 
 
 
 
 
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Vaccine Availability Plummets in Canada...
 
check the comment section
 
VIDEO
...........
 
 
 
 
...................
 
 
 
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.
 
In Misstep, Schools Vaccinate 2 Without Parental Consent
..........................................................................................................
 
 
By ANAHAD O’CONNOR
Published: October 29, 2009

In a minor setback for New York City's effort to vaccinate schoolchildren against swine
flu, two students were inadvertently vaccinated without the consent of their parents,
city health officials said Thursday.
 
 
 
 
.......................................................................................
 
 
 
 
Students were given parental consent forms and, if signed, were able to get the H1N1
 
vaccine from the school nurse.
 
At this point, less than half of the parents have signed the form.
 
 
Governor Paterson denies declaring New York Swine Flu emergency
October 30, 4:20 PMNY Page One Examiner
Molly Zelvonberg
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Flu Shot Locator
............................
........................................
......................................................
..................................................................
 
 
 
 
 
...................
 
 
 
 
 
Mary008
 
 
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Verkhovna_Rada_Ukrainy.jpg

File:Verkhovna%20Rada%20Ukrainy.jpg
 
Parlament of Ukraine     photo by  Jurij Skoblenko aka Olduser
 
 
 
 
 

www.ukranews.com
.....................................
 
 
 
Ukraine
.............
......................
..................................
 
 
 
(14:22, Friday, October 30, 2009)

 
 
Ukraine Cabinet of Ministers has prohibited mass gathering of
 
people and introduced a three week holiday for educational institutions.
 
 
 
 ..................................
 
 
 
 
 
 
Mary008
 
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Ukraine sounds swine flu alarm
Published 30 October, 2009, 15:35
Edited 30 October, 2009, 18:53
 
 
VIDEO
 
http://www.russiatoday.ru/Top_News/2009-10-30/ukraine-sounds-swine-flu.html
 
 
 
 
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114 pediatric deaths... 2/3 had underlying conditions.   out of a population of 300 Million
.....................................................................................................................................
 
 
There could be more.... but this is low for our population.... 36,000 deaths for normal flu season.
 
 
Enough Vaccine for Young Kids and High risk groups.... more coming
.............................................................................................................
 
not seeing a spread of seasonal influenza yet....       (coming Nov- Dec.)
H1N1 Flu (Swine Flu) Press Updates
..............................................................
 
 

October 30, 2009

.
............
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.
 
Posted: Yesterday at 4:20pm
.
 
 
Do you want Your Pharmacist to Vaccinate?
 
 
 
Governor Paterson denies declaring New York Swine Flu emergency
.....................................................................................................................
 
 
October 30, 4:20 PMNY Page One Examiner
Molly Zelvonberg
 
 
.................
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Not a lot of new news here...  but another source to read if you like.
 
 
 
 
ProMed Mail on the UKRAINE
.................................................
 
 

< id=Back ="doSubmit'Back';" = value=Back>
Archive Number 20091031.3764
Published Date 31-OCT-2009
Subject PRO/AH/EDR> Influenza pandemic (H1N1) 2009 (80): Ukraine susp. RFI
INFLUENZA PANDEMIC (H1N1) 2009 (80): UKRAINE, SUSPECTED, REQUEST FOR  
INFORMATION
*******************************
A ProMED-mail post
<http://www.promedmail.org>
ProMED-mail is a program of the
International Society for Infectious Diseases
<http://www.isid.org>

Date: Fri 30 Oct 2009
Source: Digital Journal [edited]
40http://www.promedmail.org/pls/otn/f?p=2400:1001:57555::NO::F2400_P1001_BACK_PAGE,F2400_P1001_PUB_MAIL_ID:1000,79885
 
40 000 contract serious virus in Ukraine, 30 dead
9885
 
 
 
 
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Notice Information: - Warning - 14/10/2009

Title:
Important Safety Warning: Relenza inhalation powder must not be nebulised or administered by mechanical ventilation.

Product:
Relenza

Issue:
Relenza 5mg/dose, inhalation powder is not intended to be reconstituted in any liquid formulation and is not recommended for use in any nebulizer or
mechanical ventilator. This applies to all presentations of lactose-containing zanamivir inhalation powder (Relenza Diskhaler or Rotacaps).

Background Information / Related Documents:
 GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) has received a report of the death of a patient with influenza who received Relenza 5mg/dose, inhalation powder, pre-dispensed which was solublized and administered by mechanical ventilation. GSK is aware that Relenza 5mg/dose, inhalation powder, is being removed from its approved packaging and dissolved in various solutions for the purpose of nebulizing zanamivir for inhalation by patients with influenza who are unable to take oral medications or unable to inhale Relenza 5mg/dose, inhalation powder using the Diskhaler or Rotacaps.

 
Relenza 5mg/dose, inhalation powder is not intended to be reconstituted in any liquid formulation and is not recommended for use in any nebulizer or mechanical ventilator.


 This applies to all presentations of lactose-containing zanamivir inhalation powder (Relenza Diskhaler or Rotacaps).

 

Relenza or zanamivir for nebulization has not been approved by any regulatory authority and the safety, effectiveness and stability of zanamivir use by nebulization have not been established.


Relenza 5mg/dose, inhalation powder should only be used as directed in the prescribing information by using the Diskhaler or Rotacaps devices provided with the drug product.


Relenza 5mg/dose, inhalation powder is a mixture of zanamivir active drug substance (5 mg) and lactose drug carrier (20 mg).


This formulation is not designed or intended to be administered by nebulization. There is a risk that the lactose sugar in this formulation can obstruct proper functioning of mechanical ventilator equipment.

Further Information:
Relenza DHCP Warning

 
 
 
 
 
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.
 
Complete Info Here-
 
 
 
EU Population
.........................
 

(most likely Scenario C.)

Scenario C
Hong Kong flu-like
number of cases 175 million (35%)                       Deaths 175 000 (0.1%)
 

Scenario C. Hong Kong flu-like experience
 
 
(high attack rate; moderate case-fatality rate)
 
A further scenario of what could happen in the EU can be described as that similar to the Hong Kong flu in 1968
when the disease showed high attack rates in all age groups (as most of the population had not previously been
exposed to the virus) but moderate case-fatality rate (comparable to that of seasonal flu) [38].
 

Scenario D. Spanish flu-like experience
 
(high attack rate; high case-fatality rate)
As the worst case scenario, the Spanish flu in 1918 provides a good model. Attack rates were high (about 35% on
average, comparable to those observed in the following pandemics) but the case-fatality rate was extremely high
(3% in young adults and up to 6% in more vulnerable people) [39].
 

ii It should be recalled that even seasonal influenza accounts for a variable amount of mortality each year. For example, the last
season seems to have seen higher mortality than usual with the circulation of A(H3N2) viruses. See Nogueira PJ, Nunes A,
Machado E, Rodrigues E, Gómez V, Sousa L, Falcão JM. Early estimates of the excess mortality associated with the 2008-9
influenza season in Portugal http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=19194.
 
 
 
The majority of influenza A(H1N1)v cases reported
are children and young adults.
 
In Europe 77% of
cases are <30 years old [43].
 
 
In the US 60% of
cases are <18 years [44].

From seasonal influenza
it is known that the rate of severe complications is
highest among children less than 2 years old and
those who have high-risk medical conditions.
 
 
 
..................
 
 
 
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clinics have been closed so that health-care workers can concentrate on immunizing Albertans in high-risk groups

...................................................

 

 


I'm wondering if there is a concern about giving FluMist... I think it is crazy to

give this ... Pandemic virus ....  that goes right to the lungs, the way this does

In any vaccine form other than  >>>  dead  >>>> killed.


I think that is a good reason to stop Flumist vaccine in the schools.

It is too easy for little ones to give it to pregnant women and other vulnerable groups

before those groups are vaccinated.


What were they thinking?
..........................................


      

 Influeza   plus    MRSA     ='s    hemorrhagic pneumonia

 


........................................

 

 Posted: 10 July 2009 at 1:25am
 
 
H1N1 is showing signs that it can move outside the respiratory tract to other parts of

the body, something regular flu viruses normally do not do.
...................................................................................................
 

May cause systemic infection?    (we don't like to see the virus outside the lungs...)


They want to give this to children?
...........................................................

 

Please Read  and   r e m e m b e r   this     >>>>>
...............................................................................................

 

...It definitely causes local infection and may cause systemic infection. ...


From-

 
   Pulmonary Physicians of Tidewater, P.C.


Influenza
 

excerpt-

 

How about this nasal vaccine -Flumist - I've seen advertised on TV?

 

It costs more than twice as much as the injection, and insurance may not cover it for

adults. Medicare definitely will not cover it for those over 65.  This IS a live-virus

vaccine.  It can be spread to others, especially by health-care workers in contact with

the sick.  It definitely causes local infection and may cause systemic infection.  There is

frequent irritation and sniffles. 


We are not stocking it at our office.

 
Source-
http://lungdocs.com/id18.html

.. 

 


 
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.
 
 

FDA NEWS RELEASE

For Immediate Release: Nov. 2, 2009

Media Inquiries: Peper Long, 301-796-4671; mary.long@fda.hhs.gov
Consumer Inquiries: 888-INFO-FDA

FDA Publishes Guidance on Diagnostic Tests for 2009 H1N1 Influenza Virus

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration today published a guidance document that should help manufacturers develop diagnostic tests for the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus. Although there are not any FDA-approved or cleared tests that diagnose this specific infection, during this pandemic, manufacturers can submit a request to the FDA for an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA). If granted, the EUA will allow the test to be used during the national public health emergency declared by Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius in April. This guidance document outlines what information the FDA recommends that manufacturers include in these EUA requests.

The EUA authority allows the FDA to authorize use of unapproved or uncleared medical products or unapproved or uncleared uses of approved or cleared medical products following a declaration of emergency, when certain criteria are met. The authorization ends when the declaration of emergency is terminated or the authorization is revoked by the FDA.

The EUA authority is part of Project BioShield, which became law in July 2004.

While the FDA encourages manufacturers to submit appropriate premarket applications for these tests, the agency also recognizes that it may not be possible to generate complete clinical validation data that would normally be included in an application. However, this guidance outlines information the FDA recommends be included, and the FDA gives these requests thorough and careful review to protect the public health.

During this declared public health emergency, manufacturers of 2009 H1N1 influenza virus tests that are unable to submit a complete premarket notification may use the guidance to submit a request for an EUA.

The guidance document is part of the FDA’s ongoing efforts to provide public health authorities managing the pandemic with reliable and accessible diagnostic tests. The guidance is available online at http://www.fda.gov/downloads/MedicalDevices/DeviceRegulationandGuidance/GuidanceDocuments/UCM188679.pdf, and will remain in effect throughout the public health emergency.

For more information:

The FDA’s Guidance Document on 2009 H1N1 Influenza Virus Diagnostics
http://www.fda.gov/downloads/MedicalDevices/DeviceRegulationandGuidance/GuidanceDocuments/UCM188679.pdf 
The FDA’ Emergency Use Authorization of Medical Products
http://www.fda.gov/RegulatoryInformation/Guidances/ucm125127.htm
The FDA’s Emergency Use Authorization Questions and Answers
http://www.fda.gov/NewsEvents/PublicHealthFocus/ucm153297.htm

#
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.
 
 
 
An Inside Look at H1N1 Vaccine Production
60 Minutes Visits the Only H1N1 Production Line in the U.S.;
Plus, Find Out Where to Get Flu Shots
 
Vaccine H1N1
.......................
 

(comments are interesting)
 
 
 

America's New Airforce
........................................
60 Minutes (Drones)
 
 
 
 
 
 
...................
 
 
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.
 
I find this to be a disturbing developement...
 
Keep a sharp eye out for adjuvanted vaccine in the US.   (so far we do not use it)
 
 
 
 
 
Canada... is distributing...   adjuvanted vaccine
 
 
and the Press is ignorant?
 
to boost the immune system     ??      ......    Where did they get that info?
 
...................................................
 
 
 
...The agency says 1 million doses containing an adjuvant,
 
or compound     to boost the immune system,      will be delivered,
 
while another 800,000 doses without the adjuvant will be reserved for pregnant women.
 
 
A look at the latest H1N1 developments in Canada and around the world

(CP) - 2 hours ago

ZIIlW
Djw
 
 
...................................................................
 
 Adjuvants
..................

Agents that aid or increase the action of the principle drug ...in such a way as to enhance its effects.

wikipedia
 
 
..............
 
and if you look at the vaccine inserts,  they often say that the action of the adjuvant is ...
 
unknown.

Like selling a house ...as is... because the seller is not willing to address any problems.

And selling a vaccine... adjuvant action... unknown...   Hey we are saying up front
we don't know... and you bought it... 

do we see the similarities?  No intent to fraud/harm.   Honesty.
 
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here is the site for Influenza like illness... in the regions.  please realize that percentages you see along the left hand side are mainly driven higher by the illness in the larger cities.
Like where I live... there is not a lot of illness yet.  But I have seen some illness in the under 5 day care in the western part of the state ...one was closed a week or 2 ago.... and when we see that we know illness will rise.  (this type of info is gleaned from listening to WHO and CDC)
 
 
see how illness in  NY has shot up in 2 weeks...     note: distance between dots is one week.
 

 
find your area....  
 
 
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/regions2009-2010/hhssenusmap.htm
 
 
 
..............
 
 
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By Monday or Tusesday we should have seen an update from the CDC onj Week 43...
 
what is the hold up?
 
 
 
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.
 
 
From CIDRAP
........................
 

Lisa Schnirring * Staff Writer

Nov 5, 2009 (CIDRAP News) - An official from the World Health Organization (WHO)

today said he expects serious cases and deaths as pandemic flu activity picks up in the
 
Northern Hemisphere, and he warned people not to underestimate the virus, even
 
though illnesses are often mild.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
.............................
 
 
Mary008
 
 
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Key Flu Indicators

Each week CDC analyzes information about influenza disease activity in the United States and publishes findings of key flu indicators in a report called FluView.* During the week of October 25-31, 2009, a review of the key indicators found that influenza activity remained high in the United States. Below is a summary of the most recent key indicators:

  • Visits to doctors for influenza-like illness (ILI) nationally decreased very slightly this week over last week after four consecutive weeks of sharp increases. While ILI declined slightly, visits to doctors for influenza-like illness remain at much higher levels than what is expected for this time of the year and parts of the country continue to see sharp increases in activity. It’s possible that nationwide ILI could rise again. ILI continues to be higher than what is seen during the peak of most regular flu seasons.
  • Total influenza hospitalization rates for laboratory-confirmed flu are climbing and are higher than expected for this time of year. Hospitalization rates continue to be highest is younger populations with the highest hospitalization rate reported in children 0-4 years old.
  • The proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) based on the 122 Cities Report continues to increase and has been higher for five week now than what is expected at this time of year. In addition, 18 flu-related pediatric deaths were reported this week; 15 of these deaths were confirmed 2009 H1N1, and three were influenza A viruses, but were not subtyped. Since April 2009, CDC has received reports of 129 laboratory-confirmed pediatric 2009 H1N1 deaths and another 15 pediatric deaths that were laboratory confirmed as influenza, but where the flu virus subtype was not determined.
  • Forty-eight states are reporting widespread influenza activity at this time; a decline of one state over last week. They are: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This many reports of widespread activity at this time of year are unprecedented during seasonal flu.
  • Almost all of the influenza viruses identified so far continue to be 2009 H1N1 influenza A viruses. These viruses remain similar to the virus chosen for the 2009 H1N1 vaccine, and remain susceptible to the antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir with rare exception

*All data are preliminary and may change as more reports are received.

Learn more >> 

U.S. Situation Update

Weekly Flu Activity Estimates

U.S. Patient Visits Reported for Influenza-like Illness (ILI)

U.S. Influenza-like Illness (ILI) Reported by Regions

U.S. Laboratory Confirmed Influenza-Associated Hospitalizations
and Deaths from August 30 to October 31, 2009
Posted November 6, 2009, 12:30 PM ET
Data reported to CDC by November 3, 2009, 12:00 AM ET
Cases Defined by
Hospitalizations
Deaths
Influenza Laboratory-Tests** 17,838 672

*Reports can be based on syndromic, admission or discharge data, or a combination of data elements that could include laboratory-confirmed and influenza-like illness hospitalizations.

*Laboratory confirmation includes any positive influenza test (rapid influenza tests, RT-PCR, DFA, IFA, or culture), whether or not typing was done.

The table shows aggregate reports of all laboratory confirmed influenza hospitalizations and deaths (including 2009 H1N1 and seasonal flu) since August 30, 2009 received by CDC from U.S. states and territories**. This table will be updated weekly each Friday at 11 a.m. For the 2009-2010 influenza season, states are reporting based on new case definitions for hospitalizations and deaths effective August 30, 2009.

CDC will continue to use its traditional surveillance systems to track the progress of the 2009-2010 influenza season. For more information about influenza surveillance, including reporting of influenza-associated hospitalizations and deaths, see Questions and Answers: Monitoring Influenza Activity, Including 2009 H1N1.

The number of 2009 H1N1 hospitalizations and deaths reported to CDC from April – August 2009 is available on the Past Situation Updates page.

For state level information, refer to state health departments.

International Human Cases of 2009 H1N1 Flu Infection
See: World Health Organization.

**States report weekly to CDC either 1) laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations and deaths or 2) pneumonia and influenza syndrome-based cases of hospitalization and death resulting from all types or subtypes of influenza. Although only the laboratory confirmed cases are included in this report, CDC continues to analyze data both from laboratory confirmed and syndromic hospitalizations and deaths.

 

U.S. Influenza-Associated Pediatric Mortality
Posted November 6, 2009 (updated each Friday)
Data reported to CDC by October 31, 2009
Date Reported
Laboratory-Confirmed 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pediatric Deaths
Laboratory-Confirmed Influenza A Subtype Unknown Pediatric Deaths
Laboratory-Confirmed
Seasonal Influenza
Total
This Week (Week 43, Oct. 25-31) 15 3 0 18
Since August 30, 2009 73 12 0 85
Cumulative since April 26, 2009 129 15 1 145

This table is based on data reported to CDC through the Influenza-Associated Pediatric Mortality Surveillance System. Influenza-associated deaths in children (persons less than 18 years) was added as nationally notifiable condition in 2004.

For more information about influenza-associated pediatric mortality, see FluView.

For more information about the U.S. situation, see the CDC H1N1 Flu U.S. Situation page.

International Situation Update

This report provides an update to the international situation as of November 6, 2009. The World Health Organization (WHO) continues to report laboratory-confirmed 2009 H1N1 flu cases and deaths on its Web page. These laboratory-confirmed cases represent a substantial underestimation of total cases in the world, as many countries focus surveillance and laboratory testing only on people with severe illness. The 2009 H1N1 influenza virus continues to be the dominant influenza virus in circulation in the world. Since April 19, 2009, more than 60% of all influenza positive specimens reported to WHO have been 2009 H1N1. In temperate regions of the Southern Hemisphere, disease due to 2009 H1N1 has returned to below baseline. In tropical regions of the Americas and Asia, influenza activity due to 2009 H1N1 remains variable. In temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere, influenza-like illness (ILI) activity due to 2009 H1N1 continues to increase across many countries in Europe and Asia, as well as parts of the United States, Mexico and Canada.

 

 
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act."   G Orwell
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Ahhh ... the elusive week 43 :) thanks Mahs.
 
 
No wonder it took so long... pretty snazzy.   I like their new look.
 
 
wow... drop of 4,000 in the number of positive specimens.
 
wave ending.... not    (not much illness in my area... but flu like illness is still up there for New York State.
 
 
 
The people at risk should not slack off on trying to get the vaccine though.... as cases are still
 
moving along in some areas and could come back later in the winter.  Usually after the
 
holidays...but this is a weird year....who knows.
 
 
here is where you can check your state...  notice the numbers along the left side...
 
compare those numbers from region to region. ...most interesting. 
 
Compare region 6 numbers (they had a tough time ) with region 2 (my area)
 
Their low is my high... but remember the larger cities are driving those numbers.... we in
 
the stix are seeing less illness.
 
 
Scroll down to see
 
Influenza Positive tests reported to CDC...
 
drop of 4000 in week 43
 
 
 
..................
 
 
Mary008
 
 
 
 
 
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someone asked about pregnant women and vaccination....
 
Thanks to  CIDRAP for this link......
 
  
Entire article here...
 
The Lancet
......................
The Lancet, Early Online Publication, 31 October 2009
 
Importance of background rates of disease in assessment of vaccine safety during
 
mass immunisation with pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccines
 
 
 
 
 
The best thing is to discuss with your own Doctor the pros and cons.
 
 
 
.......
 
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Why no week 44?
................................
 
on November 10... there is only info showing for week 43 ending October 31.
 
 
too long a delay....
 
2009 H1N1 Flu U.S. Situation Update
November 6, 2009, 4:30 PM ET
 
 
 
 
Remember....       Do Not Give    >>>>>    Asprin  or Pepto Bismol
 
                                        To children    or    teens to age 18
 
 
 CDC
..........................................................................................................................................
 
  • Children younger than 4 years of age should not be given over-the-counter cold medications without first speaking with a health care provider. 
     
     
     
    Seek Emergency Care
    .....................................................
    .............................................................
    .....................................................................
    If your child experiences any of the following:
    • Fast breathing or trouble breathing
    • Bluish or gray skin color
    • Not drinking enough fluids
    • Severe or persistent vomiting
    • Not waking up or not interacting
    • Being so irritable that the child does not want to be held
    • Flu-like symptoms improve but then return with fever and worse cough

    In adults, emergency warning signs that need urgent medical attention include:

    • Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath
    • Pain or pressure in the chest or abdomen
    • Sudden dizziness
    • Confusion
    • Severe or persistent vomiting
    • Flu-like symptoms improve but then return with fever and worse cough

    Follow These Home Care Recommendations:

    • Stay home for at least 24 hours after your fever is gone except to get medical care or for other necessities. (Your fever should be gone without the use of fever-reducing medicine.)
    • Keep away from others as much as possible. This is to keep from making others sick.
    • Drink clear fluids (such as water, broth, sports drinks, electrolyte beverages for infants) to keep from being dehydrated.
    • Dishes can be done in dishwasher or with hot soapy water.
    • Throw away tissues and other disposable items used by the sick person in the trash. Wash your hands after touching used tissues and similar waste.
    • Have everyone in the household wash hands often with soap and water, especially after coughing or sneezing. If soap and water are not available, use an alcohol-based hand rub. *
    • Avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth. Germs spread this way.

    For more detailed information about 2009 H1N1 home care, visit

     
    www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu          or call ............    1-800-CDC-INFO
     
     
    ....................
    • .
    .
    Mary008
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    Healwayshasaplan View Drop Down
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    Points: 48     		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Healwayshasaplan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 11 2009 at 6:43pm
     
     
    Why no week 44?
    ................................
     
    on November 10... there is only info showing for week 43 ending October 31.
     
     
    too long a delay....
     
    2009 H1N1 Flu U.S. Situation Update
    November 6, 2009
    .
    .
    Mary008     [/QUOTE]
     
    I agree Mary008! I've been checking constantly for the upgate and still nothing as of today...except media reporting that the numbers went up to 4000...fishy.. we need this info! It will be interesting to see. Thank you for your updates.
    stayinpositive
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    hi... patiently waiting ...
     
     
    I'm glad to see the CDC has...   Bluish or gray skin color     ...... my dau was gray.  (used
     
    steam tent/towel as she is not a little kid and could cooperate.)  These young people ,
     
    children and some adults >>>  will not be able to tell you how ill they are, it's like a fog.
     
    one min normal the next gray...  usually gabby kid... but little communication.  we were
     
    together in livingroom , both had it.   I think the families that hang out with the sick kids
     
    are smart...they can monitor the child.  It may seem odd... seems like instinct, not to want
     
    to be alone when ill.   Fluids so important... give favorite...  I even put sugar in the ELDERBERRY... and black cherry to make it taste better.   little ones even like the grape juice but some like it better with a third more water added.  It can be pretty strong for under 5 undiluted.  Hope flu like illness will be on a downward tren in a week or so...
     
     
     
     
     
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    Almost  2 weeks into NOVEMBER
     
     
    and NO WEEK 44?  >>>>>>>>>>       From the CDC what is the Hold Up?   Exclamation
    ...............................
     
     
     
     
     
     "I am expecting all of these numbers, unfortunately, to continue to rise,"  said Dr. Anne Schu c h a t.
     
     "We have a long flu season ahead of us."

     
     
    Are they seeing less flu like symptoms than this?
     
     
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    .
     
     
     
    Take heart....
     
     

    Only
    ............

    10-30% of
    hospitalized patients
     
    in some countries have required
     
    admission to intensive care units (ICU).

    ......................................................................................................

     
     
    At Risk...    May want to ask your Doctor about getting a flu shot?
    ............................................................................................................
     

    Risk factors for severe disease from pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus infection reported to
    date are considered similar to those risk factors identified for complications from
    seasonal influenza. These include the following groups:

    Infants and young children, in particular <2 years
    Pregnant women
    Persons of any age with chronic pulmonary disease (e.g. asthma, COPD)
    Persons of any age with chronic cardiac disease (e.g. congestive cardiac failure)
    Persons with metabolic disorders (e.g. diabetes)
     
    Persons with chronic renal disease,
     
    chronic hepatic disease,
     
    certain neurologicalconditions (including neuromuscular, neurocognitive, and seizure disorders),
    hemoglobinopathies, or
     
    immunosuppression, whether due to primary
    immunosuppressive conditions, such as HIV infection, or secondary conditions,
    such as immunosuppressive medication or malignancy
    Children receiving chronic aspirin therapy
    Persons aged 65 years and older 
     

    A higher risk of severe complications from pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus infection
     
    has also been reported in individuals who are obese (particularly in those who are
    morbidly obese) and
     
    among disadvantaged
     
    and indigenous populations.

    source-
     
     
     
     
     
    Mary008
     
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    As Usual... time to get ready for Thanksgiving...
     
    we are still clearing up the leaves and the wood is all stacked.
     
    The next rise in flu may be the usual back to school after the Holidays..
     
    which peaks about Feb 1st?
     
     
     
                  very good news...
     
        The elusive Week 44....
     
     check out how ... low.... influenza like cases have been the last 3 weeks...  in your area.  
     
     
     
    INFLUENZA%20Virus%20Isolated 
     
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    I hope we will now see milder form of the current H1N1 in coming months...as the population becomes used to it....  NY saw a lot of flu recently but no where near the worry we had in the spring and summer outbreak.
     
     
     
     

    From the CDC...
     
     
    Visits to doctors for influenza-like illness (ILI) nationally decreased this week over last week.
     
     

    This is the second week of national decreases in ILI
     
     
     
     
     
     
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