Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Q: What if H5N1 mixes with H1N1? |
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justme
V.I.P. Member Joined: October 30 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 15 |
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Posted: May 04 2009 at 3:16pm |
Q: What if H5N1 mixes with H1N1?
Virologist: If that happens, I will retire immediately and lock myself in the P3 lab http://blogs.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2009/05/exclusive-meet.html ------excerpt-------- Q: Is it surprising how quickly H1N1 adapted? Y.G.: All viruses, after interspecies transmission, will evolve fast. But why this H1N1 could become successful at efficient human-to-human transmission is still unknown. We have a knowledge gap about how influenza A viruses build up their pandemicity in humans. As swine H1N1 has being circulating in pigs since 1918, it has accumulated [many] differences from human H1N1 virus. So, for human beings, it looks like a novel subtype, as most human individuals lack immunity to this swine-like H1N1. This is one of the most important conditions for pandemic emergence. Whether the novel virus will develop into a more virulent strain--just like the Spanish flu did in the fall of 1918 to kill more people--we still don't have any idea. Q: It depends on further mutations? Y.G.: It depends on mutations and whether the virus further reassorts with other viruses--like H5N1. That could be a super nightmare for the whole world. Q: You're talking about the Armageddon virus? Y.G.: The chance is very, very low that these two viruses will mix together, but we cannot rule out the possibility. Now, H5N1 is in more than 60 countries. It's a panzootic, present everywhere except North America. Q: If the nightmare comes true? Y.G.: If that happens, I will retire immediately and lock myself in the P3 lab. H5N1 kills half the people it infects. Even if you inject yourself with a vaccine, it may be too late. Maybe in just a couple hours it takes your life. ---------------I hope he's got some preps in that P3 lab!! |
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Pookey
Valued Member Joined: July 20 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 79 |
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I keep thinking that H5N1 has had the opportunity to mix with seasonal flu for years and has not. I don't see the odds of it mixing with Mexican swine flu any greater than with seasonal flu. Either way it would be bad.
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Pure speculation of course, but it almost makes one wonder if H5N1 or another novel flu strain was also present in 1918, which is what gave h1n1 its virulence in the fall when it returned. H1N1 seems to be very unstable, unlike H5N1. I'm more inclined to think that H1N1 would pick up a couple genes from H5N1, as well as other flu viruses, instead of H5N1 mutating itself. We could possibly see a more lethal H1N1 strain emerge from this. Egypt has the right idea by slaughtering the pigs since they could be at ground zero.
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lastoneturnouttheli
V.I.P. Member Joined: April 26 2009 Status: Offline Points: 98 |
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CONNECT THE DOTS:
Who Director General Margaret Chan: "One must not give H1N1 the opportunity to mix with other viruses. That is why we are on alert," she reportedly told the newspaper. http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,518780,00.html Dr Richard Besser: Acting Director Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: Possibillity of HPH5N1 learning to transmit between people from AH1N1: "A critically important question" http://wamu.org/programs/dr/09/05/04.php#24679 Reported on CNN Sunday May 3rd: "On Saturday, the virus strain was found in a herd of swine in Alberta, Canada" http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/05/03/swine.flu.react/index.html From article published online by GRAIN on Sunday May 3rd: "Pigs held near to chicken farms in Indonesia, for instance, are known to have high-levels of infection from H5N1, the deadly variant of bird flu.[9]" http://www.grain.org/articles/?id=48 Cough, cough...excuse me. |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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And H5N1 is a long term infection in pigs producing no symptoms, which means unlike a person who carries the virus only while they're sick, pigs may well be carrying it from day one of the infection until they're slaughtered, giving H1N1 an even bigger window of opportunity to co-infect them. Compound that with the sheer numbers of pigs that may be infected, and it's no wonder the WHO and CDC are a little jittery.
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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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