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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Exponential Growth of Swine Flu in the USA
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tpa_guy View Drop Down
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    Posted: May 08 2009 at 10:53am
I compiled all the updates from the CDC and the the flu growth is already exponential. So I guess we are lucky since Flu season is ending.  I'm curious to see what the graph looks like a week from, two weeks from now etc.....will it level off?


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Will it peak?
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tpa_guy View Drop Down
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At some point i hope.  I'm going to try and update the chart every day to see if a different trend develops.
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Don't forget that the CDC now said that the number of cases confirmed by the state should be considered correct, since many states are now testing themselves.
 
Just from checking the STATE sites this morning vs the CDC chart from today I found the following states reporting more confirmed than the CDC -
 
Alabama - 22 additional
Californina - 21
Connecticut - 10
Florida - 17
Illinois - 1
Maryland - 17
Minnesota - 1
Missouri - 1
Nebraska - 10
Oregon - 33
Tennessee - 10
Utah - 3
 
So that's a total of 144 more cases that have been confirmed by the States individually than the CDC lists on it's site.
 
In addition, there are an additional 550 probable cases listed by the 20 or so states that are actually listing their data.
 
Some states data was last updated on May 4 or 5, so there may be even more cases than that.
 
Sobering.
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tpa_guy View Drop Down
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interesting,,,didn't know this...so the case load is much higher..
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There are now 83 confirmed cases in Massachusetts. 
Just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean I'm wrong.
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Update 5/9/09
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Thanks for posting this data. Kinda blows the lid on - the flu is on the decline in the U.S. when we are seeing exponential number of cases - and this has to be conservative.

mc
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good point.   
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I added the worldwide cases per the WHO.  This way we can see if the US levels off while the world keeps going up.
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awesome spread sheet!  Good work!
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where did you get the CDC numbers for today.  I looked at their website and they are not updated yet.
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OK got it.  For some reason my browser was not refreshing.  A quick cash clearout fixed that.
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okay,now add into the equation that the Brazileans come to Orlando every summer( WINTER fro them) and visit DISNEY,SEAWORLD,restaurants and hotels.( We always a additional flu here.) How would that change the math ???
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bummer....me either
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Updated spread sheet with today's numbers.  I added the increase in US cases to the WHO number.  The WHO updates the US cases a day late.
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Originally posted by noflu4u noflu4u wrote:

Oops date was off.




I think your worldwide numbers are off.  I think you are double counting the US cases.
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http://www.ext.colostate.edu/Pubs/emergency/fdsf.html
 
 
lots of other good sites for preps there too
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Now that the CDC has changed their recommendations on the use of anti-virals, I wonder how that is going to change the numbers. I thought that the antivirals worked to prevent the replication of the virus in the body. I'm also suspecting that they are getting low on the stockpiles since they are recommending that clinicians only prescribe it for high risk patients/pregnant women, elderly, very young and people with underlying medical conditions WHICH they spell out. . . hmmmmmmmm
Just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean I'm wrong.
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Here in Massachusetts I noticed that the Dept. of Public Health only seems to report incidences of hospitalization after the person has been discharged because in every instance that is how it appears. So in theory there could be hundreds of people hospitalized at this time but it won't show up until they are discharged .. . or dead.
Just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean I'm wrong.
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