Exponential Growth of Swine Flu in the USA

Now compare that to the CDC data out today. Seasonal flu 59 children dead. mortality reports from 122 cities 6-8% for adults.

http://www.providentliving.org/content/list/0,11664,6640-1,00.html

his is a latter day saints site open the container gardening. Good info there

CDC estimates we have around 100k infections in the US; two hundred - mostly ages 5-18 with hospital care (intensive and non-intensive care)- and six deaths so far. The fear is that everything could spin out of control given we have done little in our country to control the infection on the hope it is not serious. So far, it is not rendering serious complications - it is mostly not servere. Don't worry be happy.

I believe it was May 8th when the CDC announced that testing would be done in the individual states and changed their protocol on which cases to test - sorry haven't found the link yet - but how interesting that May 8th showed such huge growth and the numbers have gone down so dramatically in the US, but seem to be steadily climbing worldwide. Hmmmm doesn't pass my smell test.

FLUTRACKER has 9972 US cases Recorded and almost the same in Mexico About 22,000 worldwide cases. Are you adding this data?

Also if countries are grossly under reporting cases the % of Mortality Rate will start climbing at this point.

Check you local news you be surprised

http://www.fairlawn.org/

Fair Lawn Borough is located in Bergen County, New Jersey in the northeast corner of the State. As of the 2000 census, Fair Lawn had a population of 31,637 residents. Its history can be traced back to the Lenni-Lenapi tribes, and was incorporated as a Borough in 1924.

Fair Lawn is a great place to visit...
With such historical sites as the Native American fishing weir, Garreston Forge and Farm Restoration, Radburn: the first planned community and the old Dutch House Tavern. There are three shopping districts along Broadway, River Road and Fair Lawn Avenue and two train stations serviced by New Jersey Transit into New York City and points north.

Fair Lawn is a better place to live...
With over a dozen recreational facilities and parks serviced by one of the best recreation departments in New Jersey, houses of worship of many different faiths, a top-notch school system and a brand new state-of-the-art Community Center.

SWINE FLU (H1N1) PUBLIC NOTICE:
News Release: May 26, 2009
There have been cases of Influenza including some Novel A Influenza (“swine flu”) in the Fair Lawn. All cases of illness have been mild. The Fair Lawn Schools and Health Department are actively conducting case investigations and surveillance to track and hopefully slow down the spread of illness. Persons feeling ill with high fever, cough and sore throat should stay home and see a physician. All persons are urged to cover their nose and mouth when coughing and sneezing. Wash hands thoroughly and frequently throughout the day. For more information, visit the CDC website at www.cdc.gov/H1N1flu.

There were 44 in the West Midlands over the weekend. No deaths yet thank God

noflu4u wrote:

Sorry guys no more charts.... CDC and WHO spoon fed info is crap anywaysIf I had to guess the real number I would take the WHO numbers and Multiply x 100 at a minimum.JMHO

We appreciate all your work. Based on Mexico's mortally rate. This seemed much worse then it really was. If the WHO numbers are 1/100th of the true numbers, then this is good news. As they can't hide most of the deaths. So the swine flu is turning out to be just a very unique and contagious flu. It may mutate, It may turn into the worst Pandemic in 100 years and it might not. Regardless... The mortality rate in Mexico was lower then estimated as most cases were not reported. How many with typical flu symptoms even went to hospital? Most likely only the very sick and dying were tested. Tens of thousands had it before it was every discovered.

The thousands or more we spent preparing for the worst is still a good investment. $1000 for a loaf of bread would be a bargain for a starving family. Regardless of how our resources are cut off, months or more of emergency preparedness will pay off. Over 99% of species that ever lived are now extinct. Look at the moon, it's tiny compared to the earth. Yet it has endless craters that are hundreds of miles in diameter. Impacts more powerful then millions of nuclear bombs. I bet 90% of all humans that died of disasters could of lived if they panned for the possibility of such an event.

noflu4u wrote:

i am fascinated by the changes in the growth rate.

until the third of may (a sunday) the growth rate of new cases was from 21% to 84.9%.

it hovered in the 20s to 30s until may 10th (a sunday).

from may 11 to the 15th (a friday), the growth was in the teens. this is about the same time the news started drying up.

from the 16th until the 27th of may (merely a wednesday), the growth rate has been settling at around 3%.

that's hardly exponential. can someone explain this?

Here are some very simple projections based on the last month of growth. Nothing else taken into account so things won't really follow this trend very accurately.

Worldwides cases

2,000 May
35,000 June 6th
612,000 July 6th
10,700,000 August 6th
187,000,000 September 6th
3.2 billion November 6th

World cases and Deaths as of 7/6/09

Tech,

It was stated here that there were more than one million cases in the US, how does that change the rates for other countries??

One million was the number from the beginning of this month. Can you revisit the extrapolations with the one million put into place ??

happiness is wrote:

Tech,

It was stated here that there were more than one million cases in the US, how does that change the rates for other countries??

One million was the number from the beginning of this month. Can you revisit the extrapolations with the one million put into place ??

I was the one that posted the 1,000,000+ US link. Link

Two months ago I estimated the total infected would be around 30-50% worldwide. The deaths in the 9-15 million range. That's worldwide cases. Now I'm thinking it's going to be a little higher by the second wave.

Follow the charts here: Move all the dates 2-4 weeks earlier and you'll get an idea of how I think this is going to move. This one is moving faster compared to the 1918 Pandemic but it has not mutated like it did in 1918. I'm not expecting the mortality rate to be as high as 1918. Hopefully I'm correct. If I'm wrong the mortally rate will jump much higher. I'm guessing all US schools will open for two weeks and close or kids will be forced into summer school and completely bypass the first semester of school. That would allow time for mass distribution of a vaccine.

Remember heat and humidity slow this down a great deal. Look at Australia as it's their coldest months now and they are getting hit much harder now.

Link to 1918 Pandemic

Here are the graphs showing the latest data from the WHO. There is definitely an uptick in the CFR.