PAKISTAN: 1 Dead " Hospitals on Alert "

What a site that must be...thousands of dead chickens (1st article). 

People don't want to be upfront about this...I thought they used pesticides that are friendly to live animals???  (2nd article)  Even after we spray our yard for fleas and ticks (deadly chemical agent) once it dries it is not harmful to our dogs.  Lies, lies and more lies....

A blast from the past.




ftp://ftp.oie.int/infos_san_archives/eng/2004/en_040130v17n0 5.pdf

(excerpt)

http://www.irna.ir/en/news/view/menu-234/0602277596181403.ht m

Wednesday, March 01, 2006        
EDITORIAL: Bird flu: are we prepared or not?

The poultry business has taken a hit following news that the avian
influenza or bird flu might have reached Pakistan. The flu spreads
through birds and also impacts mammals. Its most deadly strain is H5N1,
described in medical jargon as highly pathogenic. Bird flu was first
discovered in Italy in 1900 but since 2003 has killed at least 92 people in
various parts of the world, especially in Southeast Asia and China.

According to reports, the presence of the strain was suspected at two
poultry farms in the NWFP when chicken began to die mysteriously. Tests
at an Islamabad laboratory showed the presence of the H5-type strain.
However, since Pakistan has no facility to test the really dangerous N1
strain, the Ministry of Food and Livestock has sent the samples to a
laboratory in London. The test results will take about three weeks to
come through. In the meantime, the MINFL has correctly refused to brand
the virus as H5N1, saying that it will await confirmation before jumping to
any conclusions. Nonetheless, it has begun the mandatory process of
culling chicken and destroying the eggs. Workers at the two farms have
also been quarantined and their blood samples sent to the laboratory in
London.

These are all preliminary precautionary measures and welcome. But more
needs to be done and it is important to ensure that the government has a
proper mechanism to deal with the presence of H5N1 if it is confirmed.

Information about bird flu has been around for almost three years since it
appeared in Southeast Asia. It has spread to Europe, Africa and even Latin
America. There have been warnings and reports galore on this pandemic.
However, considering that Pakistan has no facility right now in the
country to determine the N1 strain shows that the government did not
take any precautionary measures since the first recent outbreak of bird
flu. Reports also suggest that Punjab, the most populous province in the
country, does not have an antidote for the disease. This is not a very
comforting thought. The irony is that bird flu – if the current strain
indeed is H5N1 – took long to come to Pakistan because migratory birds
have stopped coming to the country since we began destroying the
natural habitats, especially in Sindh. This is a bizarre and perverse way of
avoiding a pandemic!

We did have enough reaction time to begin taking measures to address
the possibility and presence of the virus. Much time has already been lost.
The government must take some steps immediately. First, it needs to
make sure that people do not panic. This would require running
commercials and programmes on all TV channels, which give information
about the virus, its symptoms and the rest. For example, it should let
people know that cooked poultry is not problematic while infection from
live poultry most certainly is. Then it must ask the World Health
Organisation for immediate help in setting up laboratories that can test
for this virus. All major hospitals across the country must have facilities
to deal with any likely patients. All precautionary measures recommended
by the WHO must be taken. There is a whole body of standard operating
procedures developed in countries that have dealt with this problem. We
do not need to reinvent the wheel and can use that knowledge and
procedures to our advantage.

It is important to understand that the government needs to deal with the
problem scientifically and efficiently if it is confirmed that the virus has
indeed hit Pakistan. On the other hand, even if the current strain is not
the highly pathogenic one, we need to prepare ourselves to deal with the
contingency if and when it does present itself. *


http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2006%5C03%5C01 %5Cstory_1-3-2006_pg3_1

FEB 28/06



http://
www.dawn.com/2006/03/01/local25.htm

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http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2006%5C03%5C01 %5Cstory_1-3-2006_pg7_9

"He was fine and talking to us till 12 noon. We left him in the ICU, but at 4 pm, the doctors told us that he is dead. "

Sichuan Sheet?

Hey JOE!

I just got in. Hey I have been a cynic about India and Pakistan at the Agonist (as you know), and curevents---before the bizarre problems of late----so here I am to roost now.

 

I am gald to see cynicism is still outweighing despair for you. India and Pakistan are way OVERDUE in  blowing up into a bird flu pandemic---in my opinion.

 

BUT---I have learned that nobody listens to me---Big Deal. I can cope, I guess!

 

Welcome aboard GingerT!

Settle in, put your feet up and give 'em heck!

SZ

GingerT wrote: Hey JOE! I just got in. Hey I have been a cynic about India and Pakistan at the Agonist (as you know), and curevents---before the bizarre problems of late----so here I am to roost now.   I am gald to see cynicism is still outweighing despair for you. India and Pakistan are way OVERDUE in  blowing up into a bird flu pandemic---in my opinion.   BUT---I have learned that nobody listens to me---Big Deal. I can cope, I guess!

Welcome aboard.  Your contribution is always welcome, and I appreciate your astute comments.

Well, if they ignore you, at least, they are not attacking you.

On Current Events, Lisa was always telling me that I was crazy for believing that Bird flu would become "Mild." She repeatedly threw my "mild" posts into the Dungeon to dramatize her opinion.  "It will never become mild, Joe!" I was told on that board over and over again by many posters.

At any rate, it sure is taking its own sweet time in dumbing down (becoming a mild flu), but I still expect that it will eventually become a milder strain.  Meanwhile, it is scarier than ever.

Remember my "Columbia Got Flu From the Ocean" posts.  I projected that it would spread.  It sure looks like it has and we are awaiting reports of bird deaths in the US, but so far few reports.

Things are going to get real interesting in the next few weeks.

The previous small family clusters that we've seen in some other parts of the world do sound lsimialr to these deaths in Pakistan.

In regards to what Joes just been saying about mild strain, I suppose it depends on exactly what context you expect it to happen. I think the 1918 strain stopped being a killer both because many people developed immunity, but also because it got milder. The theory is that an efficient virus should not kill its hosts, or at least kill them slowly, as it doesnt helpt he virus to spread if the host dies. So eventually the dominant type becomes less lethal. Im not sure how often nature actually fits this theory, but its been around a while.

So in that sense its not rediculous to expect H5N to go mild. Its also widely expected that it will get milder in some way when it goes h2h, which is why the deathrates of pandemic plans dont match the current deathrates (along with the probably distorted current deathrates due to failure to register all bird flu victims/get a positive test).

So anyway I guess Im slightly confused about what sort of mild event you are predicting, at what stage you are expecting it. I was also confused because I thought some of the Sichuan Sheet theory was pointing in the opposite direction, to the nightmare scenario that it will go efficient h2h and kill all sorts of other mammals, without becoming very mild?

It may be easier to explain it by saying what you dont think will happen. What news events could materialise which would contradict your theories, is there anything H5N1 could do that would surprise you and cause a radical re-evaluation?

I should try to answer that question myself. I just dont know, I dont think H5N1 could surprise me, I beleive almost anthing could happen including it fading out prematurely (though I consider that unlikely, unfortunately). You find me sitting on the fence a lot, Im interested in your theories and I dont dismiss them, I am looking to understand them better, and to find ways to see what news maybe contradicts them sometimes, as well as the news that supports them which is quite rightly talked about in these forums.

 No crazy people here. If their were the aliens would tell me.

  

 

Yeah!!!! Everyone of you big guns do a great job keeping us informed ,enlightened and welcome. Bravo!

Joe alerted us to the mammal cross over link before anyone thought cats, dogs, fish, (yes fish!)  etc, can get the flu. Being the first to break the new news is tough.

His post on the topic were well thought out, articulate (most lost when site crashed) and he caught advance notice on Suscian sheet sp? and passed it on. Now with more and more cross species deaths he is being proven right.

Yes eventually BF will become a mild flu just like the spanish flu just who knows when? hopefully sooner than later.

I'm behind Joe and his earlier speculations 100%. His speculations are proving true. Read the little bits of pitiful news we are getting.

We need more speculators of Joes foresight and caliber if we are going to stay ahead of this thing. God knows the governments aren't going to keep us abreast.

By the way the government has paid speculators on their staff. They are called "think tanks and consultants" and pay them highly and the governments  hold  their opinions with much respect and consideration. Joe is the lead guy in Our "think tank" here on this forum. Joe does not get paid for sharing with us. He shares with us out of concern for the group.

Lord knows theres no glory advancing ideas on an open discussion forum. He has patiently  conversed on this forum and answered questions and challenges over and over like a saint. More than I could probably do up to a point. Not many have the guts to speculate.

DR Niman also advances Joe's Suscian Shet post. Read in most of Nimans post almost alwayas refer back to Quanghi Lakes outbreak.

So if ya mess with Joe, you mess with Dr Niman and ya mess with me.