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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Turboguy
Admin Group Joined: October 27 2007 Status: Offline Points: 6079 |
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I wouldn't call 100 years of graph empiracal evidence of long term warming.
To me the jury is still out.
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Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views. - William F. Buckley
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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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Yes, I understand your view
But its all we have, and its pretty darn accurate as well as gives us a pretty clear picture of which way things are going.
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Mahshadin
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One-Third of All Honeybees Died Last Winter, and That's Not Even The Worst NewsColony Collapse Disorder is still alive and well ... even if U.S. bees are not, according to the fourth annual depressing survey of honeybees.April 30, 2010 at 9:51AM by Kim Flottum From the most comprehensive survey taken to date, due in large part to beekeepers who read Bee Culture’s CATCH THE BUZZ news service, (archives) and other industry media, the Apiary Inspectors of America (AIA) and the USDA have completed their fourth annual census of winter honey bee colony losses. What they found was troubling, to say the least. But if you carefully read the numbers, they are even more troubling. Just over 4,200 beekeepers completed the survey, ranging from backyard beekeepers with a handful of colonies, to a host of commercial operations with thousands of colonies each. All told, the beekeepers that responded own just over 22% of all the colonies in the U.S. That comes to 551,000 colonies, a fair sized sample, and certainly more representative than previous years. If you consider how many colonies the respondents lost as a percent of how many colonies there in the U.S., it is estimated that 33% of all the colonies in the U.S. died last winter. A third of all the bees in the U.S. died last winter. One Third! But that’s not the worst part. Of those who answered the survey, they lost (are you ready?) over 40% of their colonies... Over 40%. When you look at the average losses of respondents from the previous three years, this represents fully a 23% increase in the average number lost. Recall, averages mean that some beekeepers lost far more than 40%, and some lost less than 40%. Some that I know, with thousands of colonies, lost 60%, 70% and a few over 90% of their bees. The first question, of course, especially for this contribution, is was Colony Collapse Disorder a part of this massacre? And yes, according to evaluations by the respondents, it was... but these responses are not backed by hard scientific data but rather good beekeeper opinion. This can be argued with, but the trend is telling, and after these many years I’ve found it to be fairly reliable. Nevertheless, only 28% of operations reported that at least some of their dead colonies were found dead without dead bees, one of the critical symptoms of Colony Collapse Disorder. However this group lost a total of 44% of their colonies, as compared to the total loss of 25% experienced by beekeepers who did not report losses indicative of Colony Collapse Disorder. 44 vs. 25. One critical Colony Collapse Disorder factor is that this survey does not include colonies that perish during other times of the year... from any causes. And, as we know, Colony Collapse Disorder raises its ugly head often in the fall, before winter losses are considered. So those aren’t in this survey, unfortunately. But bees die from lots of causes, and last year’s mostly really lousy weather contributed to last year’s really lousy production of food for bees... nectar and pollen. Poor weather means poor growing season means poor crops means not much food means unhealthy bees means bees susceptible to attacks from other nasties. Now here’s a dilemma. If Mother Nature does not provide enough to eat for bees in an area, what’s a beekeeper to do? On one hand, a beekeeper can feed the bees sugar or corn syrup. But if he does, he is criticized for feeding an unnatural diet to these all natural creatures. But if he doesn’t, they die. You can make any choice you want based on any philosophy you have, but I won’t stand by and let my bees die if I can help it. I doubt any farmer would intentionally let his livestock perish if saving them somehow was possible. But it’s difficult and expensive to feed bees. And if it costs too much, takes too much time, the weather doesn’t cooperate... a beekeeper sometimes simply can’t get them all fed. So some die of starvation. Of the bees that died last winter... over 60% died because of foul weather and poor food resources. Mother Nature took her toll, that’s for sure. Interestingly, only 5% of the beekeepers who responded to this survey felt that colony losses were attributable to Colony Collapse Disorder. What the release from the AIA doesn’t include is... what number of colonies are owned by this small, but perhaps significant number of beekeepers? Right now, we don’t know, but it will come out in the wash when the final numbers are reviewed and published. For now, know that a third of all the bees in the U.S. died last winter... and they have to be replaced. Let’s hope Mother Nature is a better Mother this season. |
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Mahshadin
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Deepwater Horizon Incident, Gulf of Mexico
As the nation’s leading scientific resource for oil spills, NOAA has been on the scene of the Deepwater Horizon spill from the start, providing coordinated scientific weather and biological response services to federal, state and local organizations. More
Also visiting the spill were Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano, Secretary of Interior Ken Salazar, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, Admiral Mike Mullen, EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson, Rear Admiral Mary Landry, Deputy Secretary of Interior David Hayes and Assistant to the President for Energy and Climate Carol Browner. The Department of Defense authorized mobilization of the Louisiana National Guard to help protect critical habitats from contamination and assist local communities in the cleanup and removal of oil.
NOAA efforts have included: modeling the trajectory and extent of the oil, getting pre-impact samples surveys and baseline measurements, planning for open water and shoreline remediation, supporting the Unified Command as it analyzes new techniques for handling the spill and starting Natural Resource Damage Assessments (NRDA). |
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Mahshadin
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14 Deepwater Horizon update
*The number to report affected wildlife is (866)-557-1401 ROBERT, La. � The unified command continues with a comprehensive oil-well intervention and spill-response plan following the April 22 sinking of the Transocean Deepwater Horizon drilling rig 130 miles southeast of The Minerals Management Service remains in contact with all oil and gas operators in the sheen area. Two platforms have stopped production and one has been evacuated as a safety measure. Approximately 6.2 million cubic feet of natural gas is shut-in. This is less than one-tenth of a percent of daily gas production in the Gulf of Mexico. Response crews worked through the night using a ROV to dispense 3,000 gallons of sub-surface dispersant at a rate of nine gallons per minute. BP and NOAA are evaluating the results of the test procedure to determine its feasability for continued use. Oil Report Line/Volunteer Line - (866)-448-5816 Rapid response teams are staged to deploy to shorlines affected by oil to evaluate and determine an appropriate clean-up effort to minimize the impact to the environment. BP has established a volunteer program and set up a toll-free number for people to call. When calling, people should communicate what they are volunteering for what areas they are available to work in. In addition, people can call to learn about the training that is required to work in oil spill clean-up operations. Claim Line (800)-440-0858
BP has established a claim system and an 800 number for people to call. This system will allow people to begin the process to recover lost income or recoup damage related expenses.
To report oiled or injured wildlife, please call (866)-557-1401.
Incident Facts:
More than 275,580 feet of boom (barrier) has been assigned to contain the spill. An additional 316,470 feet is available. To date, the oil spill response team has recovered 23,968 barrels (1,006,656 gallons) of an oil-water mix. 68 response vessels are being used including skimmers, tugs, barges and recovery vessels. 142,914 gallons of dispersant have been deployed and an additional 68,300 gallons are available. Six staging areas are in place and ready to protect sensitive shorelines. These areas include: Weather conditions for May 1 - Winds from the southeast at 20 - 25 knots, 6 - 8 foot seas with chance of afternoon showers. 126 people were on the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig when the incident occurred. 11 remain unaccounted for; 17 were injured, 3 of them critically. 1 injured person remains in the hospital. For the latest information visit www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com or follow us on Twitter at http://twitter.com/Oil_Spill_2010 or on Facebook at Deepwater Horizon Response. |
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Mahshadin
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Mahshadin
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Gulf oil spill swiftly balloons, could move eastAssociated Press ABC26 News May 1, 2010 VENICE, La - A sense of doom settled over the American coastline from Louisiana to Florida on Saturday as a massive oil slick spewing from a ruptured well kept growing, and experts warned that an uncontrolled gusher could create a nightmare scenario if the Gulf Stream carries it toward the Atlantic. President Barack Obama planned to visit the region Sunday to assess the situation amid growing criticism that the government and oil company BP PLC should have done more to stave off the disaster. Meanwhile, efforts to stem the flow and remove oil from the surface by skimming it, burning it or spiking it with chemicals to disperse it continued with little success. "These people, we've been beaten down, disaster after disaster," said Matt O'Brien of Venice, whose fledgling wholesale shrimp dock business is under threat from the spill. "They've all got a long stare in their eye," he said. "They come asking me what I think's going to happen. I ain't got no answers for them. I ain't got no answers for my investors. I ain't got no answers." He wasn't alone. As the spill surged toward disastrous proportions, critical questions lingered: Who created the conditions that caused the gusher? Did BP and the government react robustly enough in its early days? And, most important, how can it be stopped before the damage gets worse? The Coast Guard conceded Saturday that it's nearly impossible to know how much oil has gushed since the April 20 rig explosion, after saying earlier it was at least 1.6 million gallons - equivalent to about 2½ Olympic-sized swimming pools. The blast killed 11 workers and threatened beaches, fragile marshes and marine mammals, along with fishing grounds that are among the world's most productive. Even at that rate, the spill should eclipse the 1989 Exxon Valdez incident as the worst U.S. oil disaster in history in a matter of weeks. But a growing number of experts warned that the situation may already be much worse. The oil slick over the water's surface appeared to triple in size over the past two days, which could indicate an increase in the rate that oil is spewing from the well, according to one analysis of images collected from satellites and reviewed by the University of Miami. While it's hard to judge the volume of oil by satellite because of depth, it does show an indication of change in growth, experts said. "The spill and the spreading is getting so much faster and expanding much quicker than they estimated," said Hans Graber, executive director of the university's Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing. "Clearly, in the last couple of days, there was a big change in the size." Doug Suttles, BP's chief operating officer for exploration and production, said it was impossible to know just how much oil was gushing from the well, but said the company and federal officials were preparing for the worst-case scenario. In an exploration plan and environmental impact analysis filed with the federal government in February 2009, BP said it had the capability to handle a "worst-case scenario" at the Deepwater Horizon site, which the document described as a leak of 162,000 barrels per day from an uncontrolled blowout - 6.8 million gallons each day. Oil industry experts and officials are reluctant to describe what, exactly, a worst-case scenario would look like - but if the oil gets into the Gulf Stream and carries it to the beaches of Florida, it stands to be an environmental and economic disaster of epic proportions. The Deepwater Horizon well is at the end of one branch of the Gulf Stream, the famed warm-water current that flows from the Gulf of Mexico to the North Atlantic. Several experts said that if the oil enters the stream, it would flow around the southern tip of Florida and up the eastern seaboard. "It will be on the East Coast of Florida in almost no time," Graber said. "I don't think we can prevent that. It's more of a question of when rather than if." At the joint command center run by the government and BP near New Orleans, a Coast Guard spokesman maintained Saturday that the leakage remained around 5,000 barrels, or 200,000 gallons, per day. But Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen, appointed Saturday by Obama to lead the government's oil spill response, said no one could pinpoint how much oil is leaking from the ruptured well because it is about a mile underwater. "And, in fact, any exact estimation of what's flowing out of those pipes down there is probably impossible at this time due to the depth of the water and our ability to try and assess that from remotely operated vehicles and video," Allen said during a conference call. The Coast Guard's Allen said Saturday that a test of new technology used to reduce the amount of oil rising to the surface seemed to be successful. During the test Friday, an underwater robot shot a chemical meant to break down the oil at the site of the leak rather than spraying it on the surface from boats or planes, where the compound can miss the oil slick. From land, the scope of the crisis was difficult to see. As of Saturday afternoon, only a light sheen of oil had washed ashore in some places. VENICE, La - The real threat lurked offshore in a swelling, churning slick of dense, rust-colored oil the size of Puerto Rico. From the endless salt marshes of Louisiana to the white-sand beaches of Florida, there is uncertainty and frustration over how the crisis got to this point and what will unfold in the coming days, weeks and months.
The concerns are both environmental and economic. The fishing industry is worried that marine life will die - and that no one will want to buy products from contaminated water anyway. Tourism officials are worried that vacationers won't want to visit oil-tainted beaches. And environmentalists are worried about how the oil will affect the countless birds, coral and mammals in and near the Gulf. "We know they are out there" said Meghan Calhoun, a spokeswoman from the Audubon Aquarium of the Americas in New Orleans. "Unfortunately the weather has been too bad for the Coast Guard and NOAA to get out there and look for animals for us." Fishermen and boaters want to help contain the oil. But on Saturday, they were again hampered by high winds and rough waves that splashed over the miles of orange and yellow inflatable booms strung along the coast, rendering them largely ineffective. Some coastal Louisiana residents complained that BP, which owns the rig, was hampering mitigation efforts. "I don't know what they are waiting on," said 57-year-old Raymond Schmitt, in Venice preparing his boat to take a French television crew on a tour. He didn't think conditions were dangerous. "No, I'm not happy with the protection, but I'm sure the oil company is saving money." As bad as the oil spill looks on the surface, it may be only half the problem, said University of California Berkeley engineering professor Robert Bea, who serves on a National Academy of Engineering panel on oil pipeline safety. "There's an equal amount that could be subsurface too," said Bea. And that oil below the surface "is damn near impossible to track." Louisiana State University professor Ed Overton, who heads a federal chemical hazard assessment team for oil spills, worries about a total collapse of the pipe inserted into the well. If that happens, there would be no warning and the resulting gusher could be even more devastating because regulating flow would then be impossible. "When these things go, they go KABOOM," he said. "If this thing does collapse, we've got a big, big blow." BP has not said how much oil is beneath the Gulf seabed Deepwater Horizon was tapping, but a company official speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the volume of reserves, confirmed reports that it was tens of millions of barrels - a frightening prospect to many. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal said that he has asked both BP and the Coast Guard for detailed plans on how to protect the coast. "We still haven't gotten those plans," said Jindal. "We're going to fully demand that BP pay for the cleanup activities. We're confident that at the end of the day BP will cover those costs." Obama has halted any new offshore drilling projects unless rigs have new safeguards to prevent another disaster. As if to cut off mounting criticism, on Saturday White House spokesman Robert Gibbs posted a blog entitled "The Response to the Oil Spill," laying out the administration's day-by-day response since the explosion, using words like "immediately" and "quickly," and emphasizing that Obama "early on" directed responding agencies to devote every resource to the incident and determining its cause. In Pass Christian, Miss., 61-year-old Jimmy Rowell, a third-generation shrimp and oyster fisherman, worked on his boat at the harbor and stared out at the choppy waters. It's over for us. If this oil comes ashore, it's just over for us," Rowell said angrily, rubbing his forehead. "Nobody wants no oily shrimp. |
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Turboguy
Admin Group Joined: October 27 2007 Status: Offline Points: 6079 |
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I've got a friend that's a doctor at Keesler AFB, who lives in Ocean
Springs. I have been asking him about this and he says that he can smell
the oil, and could smell it a few days ago.
While I was stationed there I used to fish out by those barrier islands, he did too. In a few days those happy fishing grounds are going to be ruined. I think he's taking his kids out there today because I don't think he believes it's ever going to be the way it was before the spill. For lack of a better word, this is a catastrophe. I'm still at a loss as to how this happened too. This was a literal Perfect-Storm of disasters to get us to this point. There were no less than ten or fifteen safety measures specifically there to prevent just this. Any one of these measures should have stopped this long before it went so far. Typically there are natural seeps all over the place and the incredible ocean actually eats the leaking crude. There is so much leaking out right now it's far overwhelmed the natural system. |
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Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views. - William F. Buckley
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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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Hey TG
I have only been through the area briefly, years ago (Incredible Eco System)
The problem I think is the attitude that this could never happen (Is the Problem), thus no backup plan for the eventual mishap. We are all human, the machines are operated by humans, and the eventual human error was inevitable. Now that it has happened we see a scramble to build some sort of cement cap, should this not have been done already as a backup plan, and this from what I have read is a temporary solution (Whats the Long Term Plan). Fact of the matter is we are just not all that equipted to be working on solutions a mile deep in the ocean.
Unfortinetely we have backed ourselves in a corner on our Oil Economyand we just do not have a choice at this point.
I sure hope this (3 Cement Domes) works and they get then on the three pipes before the pipes break all together or this will be a disaster all the way to the Atlantic.
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Mahshadin
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Deepwater Horizon Incident, Gulf of Mexico
As the nation’s leading scientific resource for oil spills, NOAA has been on the scene of the Deepwater Horizon spill from the start, providing coordinated scientific weather and biological response services to federal, state and local organizations. More
President Obama was on-scene today getting a first-hand look at the spill, which is still leaking at a rate of approximately 5000 barrels (210,000 gallons) per day from three damaged sections of piping on the sea floor. Engineers are working to inject dispersants at the oil’s source - 5000’ below the surface. If successful, it could reduce or prevent an oil plume from forming at the surface. Drilling of a relief or cut-off well started today, but it will take several months to stop the flow. Work also continues on a collection dome at the sea floor; this technique has never been tried at 5000’. Very high winds and rough seas curtailed surface operations, such as skimming and applying dispersant by aircraft. Hundreds of thousands of feet of boom have been deployed to contain the spill, with hundreds of thousands more staged and ready to be deployed.
NOAA efforts have included: modeling the trajectory and extent of the oil, getting pre-impact samples surveys and baseline measurements, planning for open water and shoreline remediation, supporting the Unified Command as it analyzes new techniques for handling the spill and starting Natural Resource Damage Assessments (NRDA).
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Mahshadin
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Map forcast for the 5th 12 noon (24 hr)
Map forcast for the 6th 12 noon (48hr)
Map forcast for the 7th 12 noon (72hr)
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Mahshadin
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Ice crystals form inside oil box, cause problems
ON THE GULF OF MEXICO – A BP PLC official is saying icelike crystals formed inside of an oil containment box when it was placed over a massive oil leak and that crews have had to move the contraption away to study the problem.
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Mahshadin
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NOAA: Above-Normal Temperatures and Below-Normal Precipitation in AprilMay 7, 2010 NOAAs State of the Climate report shows the April 2010 average temperature for the contiguous United States was 54.3 degrees F, which is 2.3 degrees F above the long-term (1901-2000) average (14th warmest April on record). Aprils average precipitation was 2.18 inches, 0.25 inch below the 1901-2000 average. Based on a 116-year record since 1895, this monthly analysis prepared by scientists at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, NC, is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides. U.S. Temperature Highlights(Credit: NOAA) The generally warm and dry influence of persistent high-pressure areas brought above-normal temperatures to most states east of the Rocky Mountains. Only three states (California, Nevada and Oregon) had cooler-than-average temperatures in April. Regionally, both the Northeast and the East North Central Region near the Great Lakes, which includes; Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan – experienced their second warmest April on record. The Central climate region, which includes the states of West Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois and Missouri was also saw above-normal temperatures, resulting in the fourth warmest April for that region. [link to regional map] Record warmth prevailed in Illinois and the northeast, namely Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island and New Jersey, each of which had its warmest April on record. In total, 31 states had above-normal temperatures. The three-month period (February-April) was the record warmest in six states; Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island. Maine, Vermont and New Hampshire each also had their warmest year-to-date (January-April) period on record. Conversely, Florida had its coolest, while South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas’ average temperature ranked among their 10 coolest. The cooler-than-normal temperatures that prevailed during the latter part of the winter season in the south and southeast were still evident in the three-month (February-April) period. Florida had its coolest such period, while Louisiana and Alabama had their sixth coolest, Georgia its seventh coolest and both Mississippi and Texas their eighth coolest February-April. U.S. Precipitation Highlights(Credit: NOAA)
Other Highlights
NCDC’s preliminary reports, which assess the current state of the climate, are released soon after the end of each month. These analyses are based on preliminary data, which are subject to revision. Additional quality control is applied to the data when late reports are received several weeks after the end of the month and as increased scientific methods improve NCDC’s processing algorithms. NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources. |
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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UN fears 'irreversible' damage to natural environment
Mon May 10, 7:08 am ET
GENEVA (AFP) The UN warned on Monday that "massive" loss in life-sustaining natural environments was likely to deepen to the point of being irreversible after global targets to cut the decline by this year were missed. As a result of the degradation, the world is moving closer to several "tipping points" beyond which some ecosystems that play a part in natural processes such as climate or the food chain may be permanently damaged, a United Nations report said. The third "Global Biodiversity Outlook" found that deforestation, pollution or overexploitation were damaging the productive capacity of the most vulnerable environments, including the Amazon rainforest, lakes and coral reefs. "This report is saying that we are reaching the tipping point where the irreversible damage to the planet is going to be done unless we act urgently," Ahmed Djoghlaf, executive secretary of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity, told journalists. Djoghlaf argued that extinction rates for some animal or plant species were at a historic high, up to 1,000 times those seen before, even affecting crops and livestock. The UN report was partly based on 110 national reports on steps taken to meet a 2002 pledge to "significantly reduce" or reverse the loss in biodiversity. Djoghlaf told journalists: "There is not a single country in the world that has achieved these targets, we continue to lose biodioversity at unprecedented rate." Three potential tipping points were identified. Global climate, regional rainfall and loss of plant and animal species were harmed by continued deforestation of the Amazon rainforest, the report said. Many freshwater lakes and rivers were becoming contaminated by algae, starving them of oxygen and killing off fish, affecting local livelihoods and recreation for local populations. And coral reefs were collapsing due to the combined blow of more acid and warming oceans, as well as overfishing, the UN found. UN Environment Programme (UNEP) director general Achim Steiner underlined the economic value and returns of "natural capital" and its role in ensuring the health of soil, oceans and the atmosphere. "Humanity has fabricated the illusion that somehow we can get by without biodiversity or that it is somehow peripheral to the contemporary world," Steiner said. "The truth is we need it more than ever on a planet of six billion heading to over nine billion people by 2050." The report argued that biodiversity was a core concern for society that would help tackle poverty and improve health, meriting as much attention as the economic crisis for only a fraction of the cost of recent financial bailouts. It advocated a new strategy to tackle the loss alongside more traditional steps such as the expansion of protected natural areas and pollution control. They included attempts to regulate land consumption, fishing, increased trade and population growth or shifts, partly through a halt to "harmful" or "perverse" subsidies. The issues raised by the report are due to be discussed at a UN biodiversity meeting in Japan in October. |
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Mahshadin
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The Sculptor Wall
05.11.10
Scientists have used NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory and ESA's XMM- Newton to detect a vast reservoir of gas lying along a wall-shaped structure of galaxies about 400 million light years from Earth. In this artist's impression, a close-up view of the so-called Sculptor Wall is depicted. Spiral and elliptical galaxies are shown in the wall along with the newly detected intergalactic gas, part of the so-called Warm Hot Intergalactic Medium (WHIM), shown in blue. This discovery is the strongest evidence yet that the "missing matter" in the nearby Universe is located in an enormous web of hot, diffuse gas. The X-ray emission from WHIM in this wall is too faint to be detected, so instead a search was made for absorption of light from a bright background source by the WHIM, using deep observations with Chandra and XMM. This background source is a rapidly growing supermassive black hole located far beyond the wall at a distance of about two billion light years. This is shown in the illustration as a star-like source, with light traveling through the Sculptor Wall towards the Earth. The relative location of the background source, the Sculptor Wall, and the Milky Way galaxy are shown in a separate plot, where the view instead looks down on the source and the Wall from above. An X-ray spectrum of the background source (known as H 2356-309) is given in the inset, where the yellow points show the Chandra data and the red line shows the best model for the spectrum after including all of the Chandra and XMM data. The dip in X-rays towards the right side of the spectrum corresponds to absorption by oxygen atoms in the WHIM contained in the Sculptor Wall. The characteristics of the absorption are consistent with the distance of the Sculptor Wall as well as the predicted temperature and density of the WHIM. This result gives scientists confidence that the WHIM will also be found in other large- scale structures. This result supports predictions that about half of the normal matter in the local Universe is found in a web of hot, diffuse gas composed of the WHIM. Normal matter -- which is different from dark matter -- is composed of the particles, such as protons and electrons, that are found on the Earth, in stars, gas, and so on. A variety of measurements have provided a good estimate of the amount of this "normal matter" present when the Universe was only a few billion years old. However, an inventory of the nearby Universe has turned up only about half as much normal matter, an embarrassingly large shortfall. Credits: Spectrum: NASA/CXC/Univ. of California Irvine/T. Fang Illustration: CXC/M. Weiss |
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Are we falling behind out of sheer stubbornness to change A look at Wind Again
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Photo of Clipper’s 2.5 Megawatt turbine - the 7.5 megawatt turbine will be much larger. . . The Queen Buys The Worlds' Largest Wind Turbine: 7.5 Megawatts ...................................................................................................................... by Justin
in Renewable Power .........................
mary008
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Mahshadin
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Its early spring 2010, and Rick Petersen is slogging through the mud at Merchants Millpond State Park, the remnants of a pink dawn reflected in the black waters of the pond. Historically, the millpond has been a stopover point for migrating birds as they move north to their summer feeding grounds. However, in a changing climate, the numbers of some types of birds and the dates that they show up is also changing. What kinds of birds would he see this year? Here in the northeast corner of North Carolina, Petersen is moving through an enchanted forest of huge cypress and tupelo trees decked with Spanish moss and resurrection fern; a mosaic of duckweed and water fern cover the pond's surface. The pond itself covers 750 acres, surrounded by 3,000 acres of mixed pine and hardwood forest interspersed with shimmering stands of American beech. Merchants Millpond State Park, near the border of North Carolina and Virginia. Photo courtesy of bobistraveling. Petersen likes to get out to Merchants Millpond in the spring, before the humidity, ticks, and deer flies get too bad. There aren't too many people around at this time of year either. And though he doesn’t usually see many animals on the ground, there are plenty here—deer, beaver, bobcats, grey fox, black bear, and snakes. Some 200 species of birds have been sighted in the park. All through spring, birders show up at the pond with high expectations for spotting colorful migrants—northern parulas, swamp warblers, and yellow-throated warblers—making their way back from the southern tropics to northern breeding grounds. They might also see turkeys, egrets, owls, pileated woodpeckers, and hooded mergansers. Spring sightings at Merchants Millpond State Park include the northern parula, upper left, yellow-throated warbler, upper right, and hooded merganser, bottom. Photos courtesy of Daniel Berganza, Domenic Sherony, and Glen Smart. Petersen is particularly excited about his sightings of the red-cockaded woodpecker, an endangered species that prefers to nest in older longleaf pine trees and is rarely sighted at the millpond. "I'm not a professional birder," he says. "So when I see something like the red-cockaded woodpecker, it's a real discovery for me." Though he claims not to be a professional, Petersen started birding when he was 10 years old, and now counts some 150 birds on his life list. He grew up in New Hampshire and worked 30 years for the Coast Guard, living all over the United States. Elizabeth City, where Petersen has lived the past 10 years, lies about an hour from the North Carolina coast and right in the Atlantic Flyway, one of four major routes that migratory birds take in spring as they leave their winter feeding grounds to fly north to their summer breeding grounds. Over the years, Petersen and his wife Karen have noticed changes in the patterns of the birds flying through. "There used to be more snow geese, for instance," he says. One of the biggest changes is that you don’t see certain birds anymore. My wife and I talk about the trends, like ‘Didn’t we used to have more chickadees and thrashers at the feeder? If you don’t pay attention to the types of birds that are visible every day, you might not notice the difference. Recognizing short-term trends in numbers of birds takes continuous attention. In order to know how bird populations and migration patterns change over longer time scales—seasons, years, or decades—observers need to record their sightings over time, and compare them with observations from other locations. Though Peterson's main motivation for birdwatching is to satisfy his own personal interest and sense of adventure, he’s also found a way to contribute his time to a vital new effort to build a long-term record of the nation’s bird distribution… –~~~~~~~~~~~~–
At First SightIn the United States, people have made note of the seasonal return of birds for over two centuries. The most famous example is the swallows of Capistrano in southern California. In the late 1700s, the mission padres started recording the return of cliff swallows to their nests under the eaves of the Mission of San Juan Capistrano on March 19 of each year. The recurring event became widely known through a popular song in the 1940s. The first arrival date—the day that an observer first sees or hears an individual bird of a species that has been absent for a season—has become an important measure of phenology, the study of the relationship between recurring natural events such as bird migration or plant budburst and seasonal changes. Among the first bird migration cards scanned was one about the sighting of a northern spotted owl. Photo by John and Karen Hollingsworth, courtesy of the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service National Digital Library. For untold years, winter-weary birdwatchers have been recording first arrival dates in diaries, journals, field notebooks, and bird checklists. However, before 1900, there simply wasnt much known about bird migration. In 1881, Wells W. Cooke, a naturalist then teaching at the White Earth Indian Reservation in Minnesota, started recruiting his friends to note their observations about bird migration. Cooke wondered whether birds arrived and departed on the same dates every year. He collected the information from his friends and transcribed it onto cards that he sorted by species, then by location and date. Enter C. Hart Merriam, a medical doctor turned natural scientist, who developed the influential “life zones” theory to explain distributions of animals and plants. In 1883, as a charter member of the newly formed American Ornithologists’ Union, Merriam expanded Cooke’s initial work. Within 10 years, the network of birdwatchers included 3,000 volunteers and covered all of the United States, Canada, and part of the West Indies. Volunteers used standard two- by five-inch cards to record arrival and departure dates of the bird species they saw in their locality. Completed cards, sometimes including observers personal notations, were sent to Merriam’s office to become a part of the research record. This sample migration card shows that in Kendallville, Indiana, breeding purple martins were common through the summer of 1939. Image courtesy of USGS. In 1885, Merriam took the program and its records with him to a new job in Washington, D.C., where they stayed for the next 35 years. In the 1920s, Fred Lincoln, who also operated a bird banding laboratory, took over the program and collection of the cards. In 1936, when the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center was founded in Laurel, Maryland, Lincoln and the cards moved there as part of the first wildlife research center in the United States. USGS senior scientist Chan Robbins, organizer of the North American Breeding Bird Survey in the 1960s, took over the migration-tracking program in the mid-1940s. By 1970, however, participation had declined to a small fraction of its peak, so the program stopped accepting cards and was closed. Saved for the Digital Age The collection represented a huge collective effort, and contained valuable data that was unavailable anywhere else, but without an active program, the records went on the move. They were in danger of being thrown out with every shift to basement, leaky attic, or offsite storage unit. Robbins, though no longer officially responsible for the program, saved the cards from destruction more than once, and kept track of where they were stored. Chan Robbins, an avid birder himself, kept track of the observation cards for five decades, ensuring their preservation even after his retirement. Photo courtesy of Barbara Dowell. When wildlife biologist Sam Droege came on board at Patuxent in 1996, he learned about the cards through Robbins, and started looking into them. The potential value of 90 years of observations across North America was obvious to him, but stored as individual handwritten notes, the rich data were, for all intents and purposes, inaccessible to researchers. Droege realized that if the observations could be compiled into a computer database, the collection would provide important data on bird populations, and facilitate new insights on bird distribution and the impacts of climate change. But he didn’t have a clue how he might get six million observations digitized. Droege kept thinking about the cards and started working with them, taking over guardianship of the collection, publishing a preliminary article about their value for research, and securing funding to get them moved back to Patuxent. Through his continual efforts, Droege eventually pulled together a small amount of funding to address possibilities for getting the data digitized. Jessica Zelt, then working as a research assistant at the Smithsonian Institute Migratory Bird Center, took the job to coordinate digitization of the cards under a project known as the North American Bird Phenology Program, or BPP. Zelt’s salary was about all the funding the program had in its first year; her challenge was to somehow get the millions of records scanned and then transcribed into a database without spending any money. The cards were on all kinds of paper,” says Zelt. In some cases the paper was so thin you could see through it. We had to figure out how to scan the cards. We also needed to get the scanned images online, and enlist people to look at the cards and transcribe the information to populate the database. Zelt recruited volunteers from the Washington, D.C., and Baltimore, MD, area to come out to the wildlife center to sort and scan cards. After working out some kinks in the process, and building up enough scanned images that transcribers would have a steady supply of cards, the program called for volunteers who would commit time to transcribing the bird migration data. Rick Petersen was among the first group of people who responded to the call. –~~~~~~~~~~~~–
Birds and ClimateIn the case of the Bird Phenology Program, researchers can use the growing database to relate species’ first arrival dates to historical temperature records. The data make it possible to investigate whether long- and short-term shifts in bird migration times can be tied to changes in climate. Think about it. You can’t go back 120 years and reconstruct records like these that cover all of North America and over 850 species,” says Zelt. “It would be very difficult—almost impossible—to document past bird distributions without these records. Indeed, even with satellite tracking, digital databases, studies that tracked individual birds by placing small metal bands on their legs, and numerous organized bird counts and surveys, no single source of bird data provides as long a record across so large an area for as many species as the Bird Phenology Program. Because it stretches back to the 1880s, the observation data can be used as a baseline to compare to more recent data,” says Zelt. “When combined with current information, scientists will better understand how birds are responding to climate change and how to develop tools to help manage that change, especially for at-risk species. Studies show that some species of Neotropical migratory birds—those that winter in the tropics and fly north for summer breeding—are shifting their migratory patterns and breeding ranges: some are moving farther north at earlier times, others are moving farther inland from the coasts. These changes could result in populations migrating to areas where forest habitat is too scarce for successful breeding, or arriving in feeding areas before the plants or insect populations they consume are large enough to support them. Researchers are working to understand and predict how the locations of migration paths and breeding areas may shift under new climate conditions. With this information, natural resource managers can start developing decision-support tools to assist them in managing potential flyways and regions that may become feeding and nesting areas. Resource management efforts might also be used to enhance habitat for birds whose numbers are already decreasing. At least 29 species of migratory birds are currently in serious decline; species such as the cerulean warbler and the olive-sided flycatcher have declined as much as 70 percent since the 1960s. Ensuring that adequate habitat remains available to these species as climate conditions change could help these reduced populations thrive. Another Network Revival The USA National Phenology Network brings together citizen scientists, government agencies, non-profit groups, educators and students of all ages to monitor the impacts of climate change on plants and animals in the United States. The network harnesses the power of people and the Internet to collect and share information, providing researchers with far more data than they could collect alone. The national program, home to both the North American Bird Phenology Network and Nature’s Notebook, provide online services that include a partnership services tool and a phenology dataset registry tool. Sponsors that provide support for the program include the National Science Foundation, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, University of Arizona, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. National Park Service, and The Wildlife Society. Meanwhile, researchers from university, federal, and other settings started meeting to organize what would become the National Phenology Network, a Web site that lets citizens and scientists enter observations directly into an online database. In 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Arizona opened the coordinating office for the new network in Tucson, Arizona, with U.S. Geological Survey ecologist Dr. Jake Weltzin as executive director. The U.S. Geological Survey provides a leadership role for the program,” says Weltzin. “But the actual network is based on a new model that supports involvement from federal, state and local agencies, tribes, non-governmental organizations, academics, resource managers, educators, and the public. If you’re a contributor, you’re a member. The goal of the program is to develop a nationwide network of phenology observers—from citizens to professional scientists—observers who use standardized methods to make and record their observations of phenological events, including diverse events such as flowering, frog calling, and bird migration. In spring 2010, the network went live with Nature’s Notebook, an online phenology program where observers can record their observations of over 200 different plant species and 58 different animal species. The program will also integrate historical data with today’s observations to provide a better understanding of recent changes in phenology and their ecological impacts. The USA National Phenology Network and the Bird Phenology Program linked up in 2009, courtesy of funding from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. "Fish and Wildlife had some money to put into phenology," says Weltzin. "Half came to the our network to develop the animal monitoring part of our program, and the other half went to the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center to rescue the six million data cards." –~~~~~~~~~~~~–
One Card at a TimeAs of March 2010, the Bird Phenology Program included 14 volunteers who scan cards in the office, and more than 1,750 transcribers who, like Rick Petersen, contribute their efforts online. In the first year of the program, volunteers’ combined efforts resulted in over 580,000 records entered into the database. Unfortunately, that leaves almost 5.5 million to go. At the current scanning rate of 35,000 records a month—no small feat—it would take 13 more years just to get the images online. As the number of volunteer transcribers and their production of records continued to increase, Zelt and others anticipated the potential downside of this happy situation. The transcribers online are simply outworking us,” says Zelt. “We are just trying to keep up with their pace. Adding additional urgency to the scanners’ task, the volunteers who key and transcribe the scanned records recently started a friendly competition to see who could enter the most records. As spring 2010 rolled around, it became apparent that before too long, the scanners were going to fall behind the transcribers. Several small data rescue grants from U.S. Geological Survey were helpful, but the number of cards remaining to be scanned was simply overwhelming. Some of the office and online volunteers who contribute their time scanning and transcribing observation cards for the Bird Phenology Program. Help for the Scanners The Climate Database Modernization Program began in 2000 as an effort to improve access to the full range of the Nation’s climate data, much of which was still recorded on paper, film, and other fragile media. Documents that contain climate data include weather observations recorded in diaries and journals by early Americans such as Thomas Jefferson and Benjamin Franklin as well as rare publications, maps, and charts stored in various NOAA libraries. Data rescued from other agencies include historical images and data on whales and coral reefs from the National Marine Fisheries Service, historic tide and shoreline information from the National Ocean Service, and European ship logbooks from the 1700s. Every year, the program scans millions of documents, including historical photos, maps, and charts, categorizing the images to integrate them into larger databases now available to researchers and members of the public around the world. Examples of documents scanned by the Climate Database Modernization Program. The figure on the left shows a continuous temperature record from April 21 to May 1, 1972 at Nashville, Tennessee. The report on the right details heavy rains and flooding that occurred along the eastern seaboard from June 17-19, 1949. The bottom image is from a set of historical photos and negatives scanned for NOAA Fisheries. Images courtesy of NOAA. In fall 2009, the Bird Phenology Program applied and received a commitment for help in scanning the bird migration cards. We’re glad to be able to support this project,” says Tom Ross, program manager of the Climate Database Modernization Program. “All the data we rescue extends our view into the past. This particular dataset will provide a unique view of birds as indicators of climate conditions. The Climate Database Modernization Program manages around 100 climate and environmental data rescue projects. These projects employ over 300 people in private sector jobs to perform the imaging, categorizing, and database development necessary to make the data available through modern computers. Each rescue effort involves detailed instruction on scanning and output requirements, and attention to detail is paramount: "It takes a lot of time and resources to scan millions of records and then perform quality control to check the output," says Ross. He should know; he’s got over 100 million records lodged in the basement of NCDC’s offices in Asheville, North Carolina, and many of them have yet to be scanned or categorized. With scanning help from the Climate Database Modernization Program, the six million bird migration records could all go online for transcription within the next few years. When transcription is finished, the free online database will provide a powerful resource both for climate change research and for adaptation planning. The process for getting the data from the scanned bird migration cards into the growing database—which Weltzin calls "crowdsourcing" is equally important. “The crowdsourcing model developed for this project allows people all over the world to go online and enter data from the cards. The strategy is especially valuable because the cards and handwriting are not uniform, so they can be difficult for machines to read, says Weltzin. If it's as effective as we think it is, we could use this model to rescue critical and forgotten data stored in federal agencies, universities, and basements across the Nation. Connecting to the Cards And some of the cards name extinct birds such as the great auk and the passenger pigeon, species that are now only seen in illustrations and grainy early photographs. Another species that is now extinct, the Carolina parakeet—the only parrot native to North America—was once a common sight at Merchants Millpond. John James Audubon produced this illustration of Carolina parakeets sometime around 1830. The last known birds of this species died in the early 1900s. Petersen figures he’s transcribed about 1,000 cards so far. You can do a card very quickly, in a couple of minutes,” he says. “It seems like in the long run it will provide valuable data that will help us figure out what’s going on in the flyways. Like many other transcribers, he’s also interested in what he finds on the cards themselves. I like the bird side and the history side, he says. "Then you throw in some geography, and it becomes interesting to me in three ways. Sometimes I put in a card from a place where I used to live," says Petersen. I find myself wondering if that person stood in the same spot I did, and what they saw. In a similar manner, Petersen wonders if future birders will look back on the observations he’s made at Merchants Millpond. Looking about at the unique habitat, he says, I hope they have the chance to see some of the same types of beautiful birds that I’ve seen here. Zoë Hoyle is a science writer and editor for the USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station.
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Mahshadin
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State of the Climate
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April | Anomaly | Rank (out of 131 years) |
Warmest/Next Warmest Year on Record |
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Global | |||
Land | +1.29 C (+2.32 F) | 3rd warmest | 2007 (+1.42 C/2.56 F) |
Ocean | +0.57 C (+1.03 F) | 1st warmest | 1998 (+0.56 C/1.01 F) |
Land and Ocean | +0.76 C (+1.37 F) | 1st warmest | 1998 (+0.71 C/1.28 F) |
Northern Hemisphere | |||
Land | +1.42 C (+2.56 F) | 3rd warmest | 2000 (+1.67 C/3.01 F) |
Ocean | +0.56 C (+1.01 F) | 1st warmest | 2005 (+0.51 C/0.92 F) |
Land and Ocean | +0.89 C (+1.60 F) | 1st warmest | 2007 (+0.85 C/1.53 F) |
Southern Hemisphere | |||
Land | +0.94 C (+1.69 F) | 4th warmest | 2005 (+1.05 C/1.89 F) |
Ocean | +0.60 C (+1.08 F) | 2nd warmest | 1998 (+0.62 C/1.12 F) |
Land and Ocean | +0.64 C (+1.15 F) | 2nd warmest | 1998 (+0.65 C/1.17 F) |
January - April | Anomaly | Rank (out of 131 years) |
Warmest/Next Warmest Year on Record |
---|---|---|---|
Global | |||
Land | +1.07 C (+1.93 F) | 3rd warmest | 2007 (+1.32 C/2.38 F) |
Ocean | +0.55 C (+0.99 F) | 2nd warmest | 1998 (+0.56 C/1.01 F) |
Land and Ocean | +0.69 C (+1.24 F) | 1st warmest | 2002 (+0.68 C/1.22 F) |
Northern Hemisphere | |||
Land | +1.13 C (+2.03 F) | 5th warmest | 2007 (+1.53 C/2.75 F) |
Ocean | +0.53 C (+0.95 F) | 1st warmest | 1998 (+0.52 C/0.94 F) |
Land and Ocean | +0.76 C (+1.37 F) | 3rd warmest | 2007 (+0.86 C/1.55 F) |
Southern Hemisphere | |||
Land | +0.92 C (+1.66 F) | 1st warmest | 2005 (+0.87 C/1.57 F) |
Ocean | +0.58 C (+1.04 F) | 2nd warmest | 1998 (+0.60 C/1.08 F) |
Land and Ocean | +0.62 C (+1.12 F) | 2nd warmest | 1998 (+0.63 C/1.13 F) |
How Does This Seasonal Shift Affect Flora and Fauna?
Signs of spring are beginning to emerge in many parts of the United States. After months of darkness, it's a welcome sight. But did you know that spring arrives distinctly earlier than it did 40 years ago?
Tree budding, the hatching of animal species, earlier blooms, and other traits of spring show up about 10 days sooner, researchers have long reported. What's more, the earlier onset of spring has been directly linked to human-induced climate change.
While a premature spring is embraced by most people, it can be a mismatch for animals.
Scientists are concerned about phenology, or the timing of seasonal activities of animals and plants, because not every species behavior corresponds positively. Animals in the Arctic, such as the caribou, decrease in number when there are many freeze-thaw cycles and the nutritional plants they eat aren't available. Some 39 butterfly species are proceeding northward in their range and some are emerging from their cocoons so early that food isn't available. Numerous birds, too, are expanding their range northward, but don't always encounter preferred food or the brush cover needed to hide from predators.
Perhaps one animal species most vulnerable to climate change is the American pika, a rabbit-like animal that lives in western alpine mountain regions on talus, or broken rock, habitat. When prevented from regulating their temperature behaviorally and exposed to even slight warming—temperatures of 77 degrees Fahrenheit for six hours—pikas will die.".
"The American pika may be an early-warning indicator of generally how alpine species may respond to contemporary climate change," said Erik Beever, Ph.D., a wildlife ecologist who has studied pikas for the past 16 years. Beever added that the reduced snowpack of a warmer spring can also have an array of important biological and economic effects: for example, those associated with skiing and with providing water for lower-elevation communities. "This is yet another piece of evidence that parts of ecosystems are responding to changes in climate," he said.
Like other animal species, pikas have a range of behaviors that give them some flexibility to accommodate higher temperatures or different precipitation systems, at least in part. In southern latitudes, for example, pikas go deep into cool areas of their rocky surroundings to ride out the midday heat during the hottest seasons of the year, Beever explained. Regrettably, this behavior means pikas can't forage all day, which may compromise their ability to survive as temperatures rise.
A warming climate is expected to change forests and other ecosystems. More trees are now taking root northward or upslope. Some tree species are expanding in population while other species, such as white spruce fir trees, are not adjusting to the new conditions. As boreal forests of the Arctic region expand poleward into the tundra, some species of seals and their main predator—the polar bear—are losing part of their habitat during summer.
"The take-home message is that it's important to learn from the observed changes in distribution, yet keep in mind species' behaviorial flexibility in managing climate change," said Beever.
Turboguy wrote: For me up here, spring starting earlier is a GOOD thing. Maybe all that spraying CFC spraypaint cans outside is finally paying off! Screw -40 ambient with -85 windchill. |
No doubt, I am from up north (Lake Superior Snow Belt). I would imagine in some places the effects might be seen as positive (For awhile). Here, well we are heading into 100-115 degree weather. Almost reverse of up north, its like our winter, don’t go outside to much (Weather Permitted). I remember back north doing around a month or so right around 0 degrees or lower, here its around a month from 105 to 115 degrees.
I thought the article was interesting, not the kind of stuff we generally notice unless your looking. You would almost have to have something riding on the changes, like farmers, or other weather permitted fields. Here there is only one thing I notice and it is only because if I don’t it costs me a lot of work. I have 10 fan palm trees and half are over 40 feet high, 3 more right around 20-25 feet and 2 10 to 15 feet. Every year in the spring they shoot out what looks like swards 3-5 per tree. If I don’t get them trimmed at exactly the right time they flower (Thousands per tree) and makes a huge mess in my pool (Crazy. If I cut them to soon then they shoot up the spikes and flower anyway (More Work). Last year and the year before it was around the 10th of June. This year, they are ready this weekend (2 to 3 weeks earlier). Who knows though could just be a random event, hard to say I am way to busy to notice much else around me going 50-75, miles and hour most of the time I go through it in the vehicle. Home is about the only place I can notice any change.
I do get what your saying, I just don’t think we can remain in a (Fossil Fuel Box) for much longer without major problems occurring.
The upper layer of Earth's ocean has warmed since 1993, indicating a strong climate change signal, according to a new international study co-authored by oceanographer Josh Willis of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. The energy stored is enough to power nearly 500 100-watt light bulbs for each of the roughly 6.7 billion people on the planet.
"We are seeing the global ocean store more heat than it gives off," said John Lyman, an oceanographer at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, who led the study that analyzed nine different estimates of heat content in the upper ocean from 1993 to 2008.
The team combined the estimates to assess the size and certainty of growing heat storage in the ocean. Their findings will be published in the May 20 edition of the journal Nature. The scientists are from NASA, NOAA, the Met Office Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom, the University of Hamburg in Germany and the Meteorological Research Institute in Japan.
"The ocean is the biggest reservoir for heat in the climate system," said Willis. "So as the planet warms, we're finding that 80 to 90 percent of the increased heat ends up in the ocean."
A warming ocean is a direct cause of global sea level rise, since seawater expands and takes up more space as it heats up. The scientists say that this expansion accounts for about one-third to one-half of global sea level rise.
Combining multiple estimates of heat in the upper ocean - from the surface to about 610 meters (2,000 feet) down - the team found a strong multi-year warming trend throughout the world's ocean. According to measurements by an array of autonomous free-floating ocean floats called Argo, as well as by earlier devices called expendable bathythermographs, or XBTs, that were dropped from ships to obtain temperature data, ocean heat content has increased over the last 16 years.
The team notes that there are still some uncertainties and some biases.
"The XBT data give us vital information about past changes in the ocean, but they are not as accurate as the more recent Argo data," said Gregory Johnson, an oceanographer at NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory. "However, our analysis of these data gives us confidence that on average, the ocean has warmed over the past decade and a half, signaling a climate imbalance."
Data from the array of Argo floats -- deployed by NOAA and other U.S. and international partners -- greatly reduce the uncertainties in estimates of ocean heat content over the past several years, the team said. There are now more than 3,200 Argo floats distributed throughout the world's ocean sending back information via satellite on temperature, salinity, currents and other ocean properties.
Read more at http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100519_ocean.html.
Understanding Scientific Terms About Climate Change
Uncertainty is ubiquitous in our daily lives. We are uncertain about where to go to college, when and if to get married, who will play in the World Series, and so on.
To most of us, uncertainty means not knowing. To scientists, however, uncertainty is how well something is known. And, therein lies an important difference, especially when trying to understand what is known about climate change.
In science, there's often not absolute certainty. But, research reduces uncertainty. In many cases, theories have been tested and analyzed and examined so thoroughly that their chance of being wrong is infinitesimal. Other times, uncertainties linger despite lengthy research. In those cases, scientists make it their job to explain how well something is known. When gaps in knowledge exist, scientists qualify the evidence to ensure others don't form conclusions that go beyond what is known.
Even though it may seem counterintuitive, scientists like to point out the level of uncertainty. Why? Because they want to be as transparent as possible and it shows how well certain phenomena are understood.
Decision makers in our society use scientific input all the time. But they could make a critically wrong choice if the unknowns aren't taken into account. For instance, city planners could build a levee too low or not evacuate enough coastal communities along an expected landfall zone of a hurricane if uncertainty is understated. For these reasons, uncertainty plays a key role in informing public policy.
Taking into account the many sources of scientific understanding, climate scientists have sought to provide decision-makers with careful language regarding uncertainty. A "very likely" outcome, for example, is one that has a greater than 90 percent chance of occurring. Climate data or model projections in which we have "very high confidence" have at least a 9 out of 10 chance of being correct.
However, in this culture of transparency where climate scientists describe degrees of certainty and confidence in their findings, climate change deniers have linked less than complete certainty with not knowing anything. The truth is, scientists know a great deal about climate change. We have learned, for example, that the burning of fossil fuels and the clearing of forests release carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere. There is no uncertainty about this. We have learned that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere trap heat through the greenhouse effect. Again, there is no uncertainty about this. Earth is warming because these gasses are being released faster than they can be absorbed by natural processes. It is very likely (greater than 90 percent probability) that human activities are the main reason for the world's temperature increase in the past 50 years.
Scientists know with very high confidence, or even greater certainty, that:
Scientists are uncertain, however, about how much global warming will occur in the future (between 2.1 degrees and 11 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100). They are also uncertain how soon the summer sea ice habitat where the ringed seal lives will disappear. Curiously, much of this uncertainty has to do with—are you ready?—humans. The choices we make in the next decade, or so, to reduce emissions of heat-trapping gasses could prevent catastrophic climate change.
So, what's the bottom line? Science has learned much about climate change. Science tells us what is more or less likely to be true. We know that acting now to deeply reduce heat-trapping emissions will limit the scope and severity of further impacts – and that is virtually certain.
PASADENA, Calif. -- Data from NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter have helped scientists solve a pair of mysteries dating back four decades and provided new information about climate change on the Red Planet.
The Shallow Radar, or SHARAD, instrument aboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter revealed subsurface geology allowing scientists to reconstruct the formation of a large chasm and a series of spiral troughs on the northern ice cap of Mars. The findings appear in two papers in the May 27 issue of the journal Nature.
"SHARAD is giving us a beautifully detailed view of ice deposits, whether at the poles or buried in mid-latitudes, as they changed on Mars over the last few million years," said Rich Zurek, Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter project scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif.
On Earth, large ice sheets are shaped mainly by ice flow. According to this latest research, other forces have shaped, and continue to shape, polar ice caps on Mars. The northern ice cap is a stack of ice and dust layers up to two miles deep, covering an area slightly larger than Texas. Analyzing radar data on a computer, scientists can peel back the layers like an onion to reveal how the ice cap evolved over time.
One of the most distinctive features of the northern ice cap is Chasma Boreale, a canyon about as long as Earth's Grand Canyon but deeper and wider. Some scientists believe Chasma Boreale was created when volcanic heat melted the bottom of the ice sheet and triggered a catastrophic flood. Others suggest strong polar winds carved the canyon out of a dome of ice.
Other enigmatic features of the ice cap are troughs that spiral outward from the center like a gigantic pinwheel. Since the troughs were discovered in 1972, scientists have proposed several hypotheses about how they formed. Perhaps as Mars spins, ice closer to the poles moves slower than ice farther away, causing the semi-fluid ice to crack. Perhaps, as one mathematical model suggests, increased solar heating in certain areas and lateral heat conduction could cause the troughs to assemble.
Data from Mars now points to both the canyon and spiral troughs being created and shaped primarily by wind. Rather than being cut into existing ice very recently, the features formed over millions of years as the ice sheet grew. By influencing wind patterns, the shape of underlying, older ice controlled where and how the features grew.
"Nobody realized that there would be such complex structures in the layers," said Jack Holt, of the University of Texas at Austin's Institute for Geophysics. Holt is the lead author of the paper focusing on Chasma Boreale. "The layers record a history of ice accumulation, erosion and wind transport. From that, we can recover a history of climate that's much more detailed than anybody expected."
The Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter was launched on Aug. 12, 2005. SHARAD and the spacecraft's five other instruments began science operations in November 2006.
"These anomalous features have gone unexplained for 40 years because we have not been able to see what lies beneath the surface," said Roberto Seu, Shallow Radar team leader at the University of Rome. "It is gratifying to me that with this new instrument we can finally explain them."
The MRO mission is managed by JPL for the Mars Exploration Program at NASA's Headquarters in Washington. The Shallow Radar instrument was provided by the Italian Space Agency, and its operations are led by the InfoCom Department, University of Rome. JPL is managed for NASA by the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena, Calif.
To view images and learn more about MRO, visit: http://www.nasa.gov/mro.
The Arctic sea ice cover is in decline. The retreat of the summer ice cover, a general thinning, and a transition to a younger, a more vulnerable ice pack have been well documented. Melt seasons are starting earlier and lasting longer. These changes can profoundly impact the physical, biological, and geochemical state of the Arctic Ocean region. Climate models project that changes in the ice cover may accelerate in the future, with a possible transition to ice free summers later this century. These changes are quite pronounced in the Chukchi and Beaufort Sea and have consequences for the Arctic Ocean ecosystem, potentially affecting everything from sea ice algae to polar bears.
The central science question of this program is, “What is the impact of climate change (natural and anthropogenic) on the biogeochemistry and ecology of the Chukchi and Beaufort seas?” While both of these regions are experiencing significant changes in the ice cover, their biogeochemical response will likely be quite different due to their distinct physical, chemical, and biological differences.
ICESCAPE will pursue the above central science question and associated issues through an interdisciplinary, cross cutting approach integrating field expeditions, modeling, and satellite remote sensing. Central to the success of this program is a quantitative and reliable determination of chemical and biological fluxes to and from open water, ice and snow surfaces, as a function of relevant environmental conditions such as the nature of the surfaces. This will be pursued in ways that couple remotely sensed information to that obtained via state-of-the-art chemical, physical and biological sensors located in water, on or under ice, and in the atmosphere. Assimilation and synthesis of data will benefit from coupled atmosphere, biology/ecology, ocean, and sea ice linked modeling.
London, UK -- The PV sector has seen its share of market turbulence over the past years with the impacts of the global downturn, the over-supplied silicon market and the impact of revisions to feed-in tariffs all taking their toll. However, despite this, the sector appears to have emerged relatively unscathed. David Appleyard reports.
According to the latest market analysis, the global solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity market saw about 7.2 GW of new capacity installed in 2009, bringing the total global installed capacity to more than 22 GW worldwide.
Crucially, the industry itself, through the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA), identifies this growth as 'the most important annual capacity increase ever' which it says is particularly impressive in light of the difficult financial circumstances seen over the past year.
Furthermore, in 2010, global cumulative installed PV capacity is expected to grow by at least 40%, while the annual growth is expected to increase by more than 15%. Much of this growth is anticipated to be seen in Europe, which remains the leading market for PV technology.
Indeed, during 2009, Germany remained the largest market globally – with Italy ranking second – and will most likely remain the largest market in 2010, EPIA believes, with a cumulative installed capacity of almost 10 GW, including around 3.8 GW installed in 2009, according to the numbers given by the German Bundesnetzagentur. This represents almost a doubling of the 2002 MW installed in 2008 and is attributable, in part, to the improved project economics resulting from the decline in module prices. However, this growth has caused the German government to pursue an additional mid-year cut in incentives in 2010 above and beyond what was already scheduled and these recently announced feed-in tariff cuts are expected to significantly affect the development of Germany's national industry in the longer term. The country is nonetheless expected to remain the single largest market for PV in 2010.
Meanwhile, in the medium term, Italy appears as one of the most promising markets with an additional capacity of some 730 MW installed in 2009, more than doubling from 2008's 338 MW. The country's strong incentives and good solar resources should help the market stay strong in 2010, US trade group the Solar Energy Industry Association (SEIA) says, referring to both the high levels of solar irradiation, and the new Conto Energia law, which is due to be announced as REW goes to press, and which is expected to support strong momentum in the Italian market.
Elsewhere in Europe, the Czech Republic shows significant growth in 2009, with 411 MW installed. Though the country ranked fifth in installations, it installed more new PV per capita (roughly 40 watts per person) than any country except Germany in 2009. The massive growth, from just over 50 MW in 2008, was due to the country's generous US$0.63/kWh solar incentives. However, this rapid ramp-up in solar capacity has, like Germany, prompted a reduction in its feed-in tariff payments – which are seen as overly generous – and the market is expected to shrink significantly in 2011 after another year of strong growth in 2010.
'This underlines the imperative need for support mechanisms to be designed in a way to ensure a long term, predictable and sustainable development of the market and avoid instability and discontinuity in market evolution,' explained Adel El Gammal, secretary general of EPIA.
Belgium also made its entry into the top 10 markets in 2009, with 292 MW of new PV capacity installed over the year. Due to a revision of the financial support scheme early 2010, the market is, however, expected to slow down slightly in 2010. France follows with 185 MW installed in 2009, with an additional 100 MW installed but not connected to the grid yet. In spite of a huge potential, this clearly demonstrates the importance for France to solve grid connection issues in order to allow the market to develop, EPIA believes.
In Spain, after rocketing past Germany to become the largest PV market in 2008, a drastic reduction in incentives pushed installations down to 180 MW in new PV and CSP capacity for 2009, compared to 2710 MW in 2008. Even so, PV accounted for about 3% of the electricity production in the country in 2009.
Finally, Greece, Portugal and the UK are showing interesting potential for growth in 2010 and beyond, EPIA says.
Asia Could Become a Major Demand Centre
Outside Europe, Japan has succeeded in positioning itself as the third largest market with 484 MW installed in 2009. While edging out the US for third place in annual capacity additions, the Japanese market also shows an important growth potential thanks to favourable political support, the industry believes. Certainly, after two stagnant years, Japan has recovered to have its best year ever with the resurgence driven in part by falling equipment costs and in part by new incentives (roughly US$0.80 per watt) that went into effect in January 2009.
EPIA expects Japan to become a GW market in 2010 under a policy-driven scenario and by 2012 even in the moderate scenario, with ambitious objectives to reach 28 GW of installed PV power by 2020 and 53 GW by 2030.
Both China and India also made headlines in 2009 when they independently announced plans to expand their solar power capacities to 20 GW each by 2020.
A major PV manufacturer, China was until recently almost totally absent from the world PV market, but with more than 12 GW of large projects in the pipeline, it could rapidly become a major market. With high irradiation levels and a surge in the electricity demand, the potential for PV in China is huge and depends mainly on government's decisions. According to the national energy plan of 2009, cumulative installed PV power is forecast to reach 20 GW at least in 2020.
Meanwhile, with India's increasing electricity demand and high irradiation levels, the country has definitively a huge potential for PV. Starting from a low 30 MW installed in 2009, it could grow to 1.5 GW in 2014 under a policy-driven scenario, EPIA believes, and probably well beyond afterwards. The market size in 2010 will clearly depend on the political choices to possibly reach between 50 MW and 300 MW.
If these plans move forward, Asia will become a major demand centre for solar energy equipment after several years of expanding manufacturing capacity and both markets are expected to boom in the next five years.
Canada and Australia also showed significant market development in 2009 and are expected to open the way to the development of new markets. Brazil, Mexico, Morocco and South Africa are also seen as promising countries, the trade groups suggest.
The US Sector Takes Off and Looks Set to Grow
In the US, the market has finally taken off, with around 475 MW installed in 2009, and appears as a potentially leading market for the coming years. Both new installations and employment figures rose, with the total US capacity from both PV and CSP technologies climbing past 2 GW during 2009. Solar industry revenues also surged despite the economy, says the SEIA, climbing 36% in 2009 with a doubling in size of the residential PV market.
In another sign of continued optimism identified by the SEIA, venture capitalists invested more in solar technologies than any other clean technology in 2009. In total, $1.4 billion in venture capital flowed to solar companies in 2009. For an industry that had a total US volume of roughly $4 billion, this signals huge optimism about near-term growth, the trade group says.
This investment is supported by the solar provisions in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA), which got off to a slow start but continues to ease the pressures of the credit crisis. As of early February 2010, more than 46 MW of solar capacity has been deployed with the help of Treasury grants totaling $81 million in lieu of the investment tax credit (ITC). Representing more than $271 million in solar energy investment, the 13 solar thermal and 169 solar electric projects receiving the grant are spread over 30 states.
Solar equipment manufacturers have also been awarded $600 million in manufacturing tax credits under ARRA, representing investments in new and upgraded factories of more than $2 billion. The grant created by ARRA reduces the need for tax equity partners and significantly lowers the transaction costs for a solar project.
The PV industry managed to maintain growth in 2009 despite difficulties in the housing and construction sectors and cumulative grid-tied capacity sailed past the 1 GW mark by installing 429 MW. An estimated 40 MW of off-grid capacity was also added. However, year-over-year growth in annual grid-tied capacity additions of 38% fell short of the 84% growth seen in 2008, SEIA says. Notable growth came in the utility sector which nearly tripled from 22 MW in 2008 to 66 MW in 2009. Residential installations were also buoyed by the removal of the $2000 cap on the ITC, more than doubling volume from 78 MW in 2008 to 156 MW in 2009.
However, 2009 marked a second year of major price declines for PV modules, with US prices falling to $1.85–$2.25 per watt from $3.50–$4.00 per watt in mid-2008, a drop of over 40%, the SEIA observes. With module prices accounting for up to half of the installed cost of a PV system, these prices are beginning to put downward pressure on system prices. Indeed, average installed cost fell roughly 10% from 2008 to 2009, despite the large shift to the more labour-intensive residential installations.
In the US, residential and commercial rooftop installations are expected to remain strong and utility-scale PV is expected to grow significantly, with more than 6000 MW in announced projects in the pipeline. And, although solar energy continues to account for less than 1% of US energy supply, its contribution is expected to rise dramatically in the coming years as costs continue to decline making it more competitive in more states. National requirements will effectively mandate some 9 GW of solar capacity by 2025, the SEIA reports. Furthermore, when compared to the high cost of generation in places like Hawaii, where most electricity is generated with oil, solar energy is looking increasingly attractive.
A Bright Future for PV?
Given the economic turmoil of the previous year or so, it is perhaps surprising to see analysis firms such as iSuppli Corp, dramatically upgrade forecasts for installations of PV systems in 2010.
A surge of sales in Germany combined with plunging prices are set to boost solar demand in 2010, iSuppli predicts, arguing that solar installations will rise to 13.6 GW in 2010, up 93.6% from 7 GW in 2009. The company's previous forecast, released in February, outlined its expectations for 8.3 GW worth of installations in 2010, up 64% from 2009. The strong rise in PV installations in 2010 will be driven by robust market conditions in the second and fourth quarters, which will more than compensate for slower performances in the first and third quarters, iSuppli predicts.
'This will be an up and down year for PV installations', said Henning Wicht, director and principal analyst for PV at iSuppli. 'The first quarter of 2010 was negatively affected by winter conditions, likely causing a decline in installations compared to the fourth quarter of 2009. However, the second quarter is expected to be a blockbuster for the global PV industry', Wicht added, explaining: 'Reduced feed-in tariffs in Germany are coming in July and consumers in that country will rush to install PV systems before that incentive becomes less compelling. A market correction will happen in the third quarter, leading to a huge fourth quarter due to the approach of other countries' FIT deadlines in January 2011.'
In addition to the FIT deadlines, growth in the second half of the year will be driven by reductions in the cost of solar installations. 'Plummeting prices for solar panels during 2009 now are being reflected in system prices', Wicht observed, noting: 'These price declines will compensate for the FIT reductions, resulting in a favourable return on investment (ROI) for homeowners and project developers. In some cases, the ROI will remain higher than 10%.'
'Needless to say, these quarterly ups and downs in 2010 will result in a difficult year for the PV supply chain and production planners as they struggle to figure out how much is needed, where it is needed and when is it needed,' Wicht concluded, saying: 'Because of this, there could be material supply constraints during the year. Spot shortages of inverters, and perhaps panels, could curtail growth to some degree.'
According to EPIA, the global PV market could reach between 8.2 GW and 12.7 GW of new installations assuming a moderate scenario and a policy driven scenario, respectively, and would represent a growth of 40% and 60% of the overall cumulative installed capacity compared to 2009 for the two scenarios. In a policy-driven scenario, the global annual PV market could reach up to 30 GW in 2014 – based on favourable conditions established by policy makers, regulators and the energy sector at large, the group contends. Announced worldwide PV production capacity would also be sufficient to cover the expected evolution of the market in the coming five years, EPIA says.
As evidenced in the EPIA SET For 2020 study, PV could provide up to 12% of the EU's electricity demand by 2020, provided specific boundary conditions are met, and could be competitive with other electricity sources in as much as 76% of the EU electricity market by 2020, even in the absence of any form of external price support or subsidy.
In the current pre-competitive phase, PV market deployment is, to a large extent, dependent on the political framework of any given country. Support mechanisms are defined in national laws. The introduction, modification or fading out of such support schemes have profound consequences on PV markets and industries.
'In addition to the ramp-up of many markets in Europe, the development and opening of new markets in Asia, the Americas and Africa is paving the way to a strong and sustainable momentum of PV powered supply solutions all around the world', concluded Ingmar Wilhelm, the newly appointed president of EPIA.
However, looking ahead to 2011, there could be more supply constraints, according to iSuppli's analysis of capacity announcements. The company believes that unless additional expansions take place, crystalline-Silicon (c-Si) modules could encounter constraints in 2011 with utilization rates for c-Si module production facilities anticipated to climb to more than 90% in 2010. Nonetheless, iSuppli also believes that despite the short-term supply challenges, the outlook for global PV installations remains bright. By 2011, global PV installations will rise to 20.3 GW, nearly triple the 7 GW in 2009.
June 8 , 2010
NOAA’s State of the Climate report shows the May 2010 average temperature for the contiguous United States was 60.8 degrees F, which is 0.2 degrees F below the long-term (1901-2000) average. May’s average precipitation was 3.10 inches, 0.23 inch above the 1901-2000 average.
Based on a 116-year record dating back to 1895, this monthly analysis prepared by scientists at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, NC, is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides.
May precipitation was variable across the contiguous U.S., averaging slightly above normal. The state of Washington had its third wettest May on record, Kentucky its seventh and North Dakota its 10th wettest. Extreme precipitation events in Tennessee led to its sixth wettest May on record. Louisiana had its fifth driest March-May period on record. Rhode Island had its second wettest spring and Massachusetts its 10th wettest.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100608_maystats.html
CO2 levels explain why temperatures in tropical and arctic waters have risen and fallen together for the past 2.7 million years
Now, a research team led by Brown University has established that the climate in the tropics over at least the last 2.7 million years changed in lockstep with the cyclical spread and retreat of ice sheets thousands of miles away in the Northern Hemisphere. The findings appear to cement the link between the recent Ice Ages and temperature changes in tropical oceans. Based on that new link, the scientists conclude that carbon dioxide has played the lead role in dictating global climate patterns, beginning with the Ice Ages and continuing today.
Gulf of Mexico - The oil spewing into Gulf due to the Deepwater Horizon explosion and sinking may be only a fraction of the devastation to the Gulf of Mexico as methane gas continues to pour into the Gulf at levels eight times or more of those normally encountered during oil drilling operations. Such a release threatens to create 'dead zones' where life cannot exist throughout the Gulf of Mexico for years to come.
The Associated Press reported that according to John Kessler, a chemical oceanographer from Texas A&M University, so far approximately 4.5 billion cubic feet of methane gas has been released by BP's uncontrolled well. BP states that as it works to contain oil from the spill, it has burned off about 450 million cubic feet of methane gas. Even so, over 4 billion cubic feet has entered the Gulf waters.
Kessler told Xinhua in an interview, "The mixture coming up is now about 40 percent methane and 60 percent oil from undersea of the Gulf of Mexico. This means there are immense amounts of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, being input into the Gulf." The normal proportion of methane gas encountered in such drilling is around 5%.
Methane is a more dangerous greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide and its release has been attributed to extreme increases in climatic temperatures in the past.
"We know that millions of years ago, there were vast undersea eruptions where methane gas escaped just like it is doing right now,� Kessler told Xinhua. �It is thought that this methane eventually contributed to climate change millions of years ago, so this gives us a chance to study the methane from that perspective as we measure how much is entering the atmosphere today."
Though the BP's impact on climate change is completely unknown at this time, a more immediate threat to the ecosystem may already be occurring. In June Dr. Samantha Joye of the Institute of Undersea Research and Technology at the University of Georgia found large areas of the Gulf where the oxygen levels have become depleted by 40%. Such dead zones make it difficult for sea life to survive should it enter the area. Recently, Kessler found similar results in areas that he had tested.
Dr. Kessler's team has a grant from the National Science Foundation to study the spill's effects on the Gulf�s ecosystem. In regard to the oxygen depletion process, Kessler explained, "While some of the methane is emitted to the Earth's atmosphere, other parts of it dissolve in the Gulf waters and are literally eaten by living microorganisms, a process which consumes oxygen. We know that there are large areas of the Gulf that have oxygen-depleted waters that occur annually, and these are known as 'the dead zone." But will these large amounts of methane make the dead zone areas even larger or the oxygen-depletion more severe? What are the links between methane and oxygen down there? We hope to find out."
The Associated Press reported that BP denies that methane is creating dead zones in the Gulf, stating that rather the methane gas is going to the surface and entering the atmosphere.
Hotair wrote: Either way, this seems to just be getting worse and worse. Not that BP has a choice but, which is worse, dead zones in the ocean or accelerated climate change? Idiots. |
The latest image of Pacific Ocean sea surface heights from the NASA/European Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason-2 oceanography satellite, dated June 11, 2010, shows that the tropical Pacific has switched from warm (red) to cold (blue) during the last few months. The blue area in the center of the image depicts the recent appearance of cold water hugging the equator, which the satellite measures as a region of lower-than-normal sea level. Remnants of the El Ni�o warm water pool, shown here in red and yellow, still linger north and south of the equator in the center of the image.
The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions. Red (warmer) areas are about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. Green areas indicate near-normal conditions. Purple (cooler) areas are 14 to 18 centimeters (6 to 7 inches) below normal. Blue areas are 5 to 13 centimeters (2 to 5 inches) below normal.
"The central equatorial Pacific Ocean could stay colder than normal into summer and beyond. That's because sea level is already about 10 centimeters (4 inches) below normal, creating a significant deficit of the heat stored in the upper ocean," said JPL oceanographer and climatologist Bill Patzert. "The next few months will reveal if the current cooling trend will eventually evolve into a long-lasting La Ni�a situation."
A La Nina is essentially the opposite of an El Ni�o. During a La Nina, trade winds in the western equatorial Pacific are stronger than normal, and the cold water that normally exists along the coast of South America extends to the central equatorial Pacific. La Ni�as change global weather patterns and are associated with less moisture in the air, resulting in less rain along the coasts of North and South America. They also tend to increase the formation of tropical storms in the Atlantic.
"For the American Southwest, La Ninas usually bring a dry winter, not good news for a region that has experienced normal rain and snowpack only once in the past five winters," said Patzert.
For more information on El Nino, La Nina and Jason-2, visit: http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov
June 15, 2010
The combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the warmest on record for May, March-May (Northern Hemisphere spring-Southern Hemisphere autumn), and the period January-May according to NOAA. Worldwide average land surface temperature for May and March-May was the warmest on record while the global ocean surface temperatures for both May and March-May were second warmest on record, behind 1998.
The monthly analysis from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, which is based on records going back to 1880, is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides government, business and community leaders so they can make informed decisions.
(Credit: NOAA)
(Credit: NOAA)
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100615_globalstats.html
Arctic Climate May be More Sensitive to Warming Than Thought, Says New Study
June 29, 2010
Artist’s rendering of the Beaver Pond site on Ellesmere Island, in Canada's High Arctic, as it may have looked about 3 to 5 million years ago. Image credit: George "Rinaldino" Teichmann |
From left to right, Ashley Ballantyne of the University of Colorado at Boulder, Dara Finney of Environment Canada and Natalia Rybczynski of the Canadian Museum of Nature search for fossils in a peat deposit at Strathcona Fiord on Ellesmere Island in Canada's High Arctic. Photo courtesy Dara Finney, Environment Canada. |
A new study shows the Arctic climate system may be more sensitive to greenhouse warming than previously thought, and that current levels of Earth's atmospheric carbon dioxide may be high enough to bring about significant, irreversible shifts in Arctic ecosystems.
Led by the University of Colorado at Boulder, the international study indicated that while the mean annual temperature on Ellesmere Island in the High Arctic during the Pliocene Epoch 2.6 to 5.3 million years ago was about 34 degrees Fahrenheit, or 19 degrees Celsius, warmer than today, CO2 levels were only slightly higher than present. The vast majority of climate scientists agree Earth is warming due to increased concentrations of heat-trapping atmospheric gases generated primarily by human activities like fossil fuel burning and deforestation.
The team used three independent methods of measuring the Pliocene temperatures on Ellesmere Island in Canada's High Arctic. They included measurements of oxygen isotopes found in the cellulose of fossil trees and mosses that reveal temperatures and precipitation levels tied to ancient water, an analysis of the distribution of lipids in soil bacteria which correlate with temperature, and an inventory of ancient Pliocene plant groups that overlap in range with contemporary vegetation.
"Our findings indicate that CO2 levels of approximately 400 parts per million are sufficient to produce mean annual temperatures in the High Arctic of approximately 0 degrees Celsius (32 degrees F)," Ballantyne said. "As temperatures approach 0 degrees Celsius, it becomes exceedingly difficult to maintain permanent sea and glacial ice in the Arctic. Thus current levels of CO2 in the atmosphere of approximately 390 parts per million may be approaching a tipping point for irreversible ice-free conditions in the Arctic."
A paper on the subject is being published in the July issue of the journal Geology. Co-authors included David Greenwood of Brandon University in Manitoba, Canada, Jaap Sinninghe Damste of the Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Adam Csank of the University of Arizona, Natalia Rybczynski of the Canadian Museum of Nature in Ottawa and Jaelyn Eberle, curator of fossil vertebrates at the University of Colorado Museum of Natural History and an associate professor in the geological sciences department.
Arctic temperatures have risen by about 1.8 degrees F, or 1 degree C, in the past two decades in response to anthropogenic greenhouse warming, a trend expected to continue in the coming decades and centuries, said Ballantyne. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have risen from about 280 parts per million during the pre-industrial era on Earth to about 390 parts per million today.
During the Pliocene, Ellesmere Island hosted forests of larch, dwarf birch and northern white cedar trees, as well as mosses and herbs, including cinquefoils. The island also was home to fish, frogs and now extinct mammals that included tiny deer, ancient relatives of the black bear, three-toed horses, small beavers, rabbits, badgers and shrews. Because of the high latitude, the Ellesmere Island site on the Strathcona Fiord was shrouded by darkness six months out of the year, said Rybczynski.
Fossils are often preserved in a process known as permineralization, in which mineral deposits form internal casts of organisms. But at the Ellesmere Island site known as the "Beaver Pond site," organic materials -- including trees, plants and mosses -- have been "mummified" in peat deposits, allowing the researchers to conduct detailed, high-quality analyses, said Eberle.
Ballantyne said the high level of preservation of trees and mosses at Ellesmere Island allowed the team to measure the ratio of oxygen isotopes in plant cellulose, providing information on water absorbed from precipitation during the Pliocene and which yielded estimates of past surface temperatures. The team also compared data on the width of tree rings in larch trees at the Beaver Pond site to trees at lower latitudes today to help them estimate past temperatures and precipitation levels.
The researchers also analyzed the distribution of ancient membrane lipids from soil bacteria known as tetraethers, which correlate to temperature. The chemical structure of the fossilized tetraethers makes them highly sensitive to both temperature and acidity, or pH, said Ballantyne.
The last line of evidence put forward by the CU-Boulder-led team was a comparison of Pliocene ancient vegetation at the site with vegetation present today, providing a clear "climate window" showing the overlap of the two time periods. "The results of the three independent temperature proxies are remarkably consistent," said Eberle. "We essentially were able to ‘read' the vegetation in order to estimate air temperatures in the Pliocene."
Today, Ellesmere Island is a polar desert that features tundra, permafrost, ice sheets, sparse vegetation and a few small mammals. Temperatures range from roughly minus 37 degrees F, or minus 38 degrees C, in winter to 48 degrees F, or 9 degrees C, in summer. The region is one of the coldest, driest environments on Earth.
"Our findings are somewhat disconcerting regarding the temperatures and greenhouse gas levels during the Pliocene," said Eberle. "We already are seeing evidence of both mammals and birds moving northward as the climate warms, and I can't help but wonder if the Arctic is headed toward conditions similar to those that existed during the Pliocene."
Elevated Arctic temperatures during the Pliocene -- which occurred shortly before Earth plunged into an ice age about 2.5 million years ago -- are thought to have been driven by the transfer of heat to the polar regions and perhaps by decreased reflectivity of sunlight hitting the Arctic due to a lack of ice, said Ballantyne. One big question is why the Arctic was so sensitive to warming during this period, he said.
Multiple feedback mechanisms have been proposed to explain the amplification of Arctic temperatures, including the reflectivity strength of the sun on Arctic ice and changes in vegetation seasonal cloud cover, said Ballantyne. "I suspect that it is the interactions between these different feedback mechanisms that ultimately produce the warming temperatures in the Arctic."
In 2009, CU-Boulder's National Snow and Ice Data Center showed the September Arctic sea ice extent was 649,000 square miles, or 1,680,902 square kilometers, below the 1979-2000 average, and is declining at a rate of 11.2 percent per decade. Some climate change experts are forecasting that the Arctic summers will become ice-free summers within a decade or two.
In addition to its exceptional preservation of fossil wood, plants, insects and mollusks, the Beaver Pond site on Ellesmere Island is the only reported Pliocene fossil site in the High Arctic to yield vertebrate remains, said Rybczynski.
Eberle said there is high concern by scientists over a proposal to mine coal on Ellesmere Island near the Beaver Pond site by WestStar Resources Inc. headquartered in Vancouver, British Columbia. "Paleontological sites like the Beaver Pond site are unique and extremely valuable resources that are of international importance," said Eberle. "Our concern is that coal mining activities could damage such sites and they will be lost forever."
The study was funded by the National Science Foundation, the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council in Canada, the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research and the European Research Council.
With the largest amount of accurate data, scientists, and technology NASA has been and will be in the future the dominant source for Data and Analysis on Earths Climate & Weather.
Have a peak, cant hurt to look at how it all works.
Super-Computing The Climate
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jj0WsQYtT7M&NR=1
Measuring Earths Temperature
Last Modified 10:39 AM, July 2, 2010
Most people today embrace sustainability as a good thing, and it may be the greatest technological challenge our society has ever faced.
But, in a paper just published in the journal BioScience, Michigan Technological University wildlife ecologist John A. Vucetich and Michigan State University environmental ethicist Michael Nelson say that the technological challenge of sustainability pales in comparison to the ethical crisis it presents to society.
In a paper titled "Sustainability: Virtuous or Vulgar?" Vucetich and Nelson examine the most widely-accepted definitions of sustainability, which indicate at least roughly that sustainability is: meeting human needs in a socially-just manner without depriving ecosystems of their health. While the definition sounds quite specific, it could mean anything from "exploit as much as desired without infringing on the future ability to exploit as much as desired' to "exploit as little as necessary to maintain a meaningful life," the scientist and ethicist say.
"From a single definition arise two wildly disparate views of a sustainable world," says Vucetich, who teaches in Michigan Tech's School of Forest Resources and Environmental Science and leads a long-running study of the wolves and moose of Isle Royale National Park. "Handling these disparate views is the inescapable ethical crisis of sustainability."
"The crisis results from not knowing what we mean by value-laden terms like 'ecosystem health' and 'human needs." Nelson says, "In other words, is ecosystem health defined only by its ability to meet human needs, or does ecosystem health define the limits of human need?"
Solving the dilemma boils down to knowing the extent to which sustainability is motivated by concern for nature. Or as Vucetich puts it: "Are we concerned for nature because nature is intrinsically valuable, or only because of what nature can do for us?"
Nelson adds, 'These questions are as difficult to answer as it is necessary to answer them. We are unlikely to achieve sustainability without knowing what it means.'
More disturbingly, Vucetich and Nelson point out that almost no effort is spent trying to answer this question. For example, universities have hired dozens of academics in recent years to solve sustainability problems. None of these academics work on the ethical crisis of sustainability. Likewise, the National Science Foundation’s interdisciplinary funding program for sustainability research makes no reference to ethics, and the word "ethic" appears in only one of the titles, abstracts or keywords of the 119 projects funded so far.
Vucetich and Nelson do not advance a particular interpretation of sustainability. Rather they show us why it is so important that all segments of society-academics and the general public, the public and private sectors-confront the inescapable dilemma that sustainability represents.
"The first goal ought to be a citizenry that has enough ethical knowledge to be able to just talk about these issues intelligently," Vucetich says. Nelson goes on to say "This is unlikely to happen until social leaders, including academics from all disciplines develop for themselves enough ethical knowledge to be able to teach the broader public how to approach these questions. Then, hopefully, answers will emerge."
They conclude, "If we attain sustainability, it will not only require critical changes in technology, but also the most profound shift in ethical thought witnessed in the last four centuries."
The National Science Foundation provided support for the research on which this article is based.
Michigan Technological University (mtu.edu) is a leading public research university developing new technologies and preparing students to create the future for a prosperous and sustainable world. Michigan Tech offers more than 130 undergraduate and graduate degree programs in engineering; forest resources; computing; technology; business; economics; natural, physical and environmental sciences; arts; humanities; and social sciences.
July 9, 2010
NOAA’s State of the Climate report shows the June 2010 average temperature for the contiguous United States was 71.4 degrees F, which is 2.2 degrees F above the long-term average (1901-2000). The average precipitation for June was 3.33 inches, 0.44 inch above the long-term average.
Based on records dating back to 1895, this monthly analysis prepared by scientists at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, NC, is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides.
(Credit: NOAA)
NCDC’s State of the Climate reports are released soon after the end of each month. These analyses are based on preliminary data, which are subject to revision. Additional quality control is applied to the data when late reports are received several weeks after the end of the month and as increased scientific methods improve NCDC’s processing algorithms.
NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit us on Facebook.
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