U.S. dealt another La Nina winter but 'wild card' could trump it

Devastating drought in Southern Plains likely to continue

October 20, 2011

The Southern Plains should prepare for continued drier and warmer than average weather, while the Pacific Northwest is likely to be colder and wetter than average from December through February, according to the annual Winter Outlook released today by NOAA.

For the second winter in a row, La Nina will influence weather patterns across the country, but as usual, it’s not the only climate factor at play. The 'wild card' is the lesser-known and less predictable Arctic Oscillation that could produce dramatic short-term swings in temperatures this winter.

NOAA expects La Nina, which returned in August, to gradually strengthen and continue through the upcoming winter. It is associated with cooler than normal water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and influences weather throughout the world.

 "The evolving La Nina will shape this winter," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "There is a wild card, though. The erratic Arctic Oscillation can generate strong shifts in the climate patterns that could overwhelm or amplify La Nina's typical impacts."

The Arctic Oscillation is always present and fluctuates between positive and negative phases. The negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation pushes cold air into the U.S. from Canada. The Arctic Oscillation went strongly negative at times the last two winters, causing outbreaks of cold and snowy conditions in the U.S. such as the “Snowmaggedon” storm of 2009.  Strong Arctic Oscillation episodes typically last a few weeks and are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance.

With La Nina in place Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico and parts of surrounding states are unlikely to get enough rain to alleviate the ongoing drought. Texas, the epicenter of the drought, experienced its driest 12-month period on record from October 2010 through September 2011.

Stormy periods can occur anytime during the winter season. To improve the ability to predict and track winter storms, NOAA implemented a more accurate weather forecast model on Oct.18.  Data gathered from the model will support local weather forecast office efforts to prepare for and protect the public from weather events. This service is helping the country to become a Weather-Ready Nation at a time when extreme weather is on the rise.

According to the U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February) odds tilt in favor of:

• Pacific Northwest:  colder and wetter than average. La Nina often results in below-average temperatures and increased mountain snow in the Pacific Northwest and western Montana during the winter months. This may set the stage for spring flooding in the Missouri River Basin;
  
• California: colder than average and wetter than average conditions in northern California and drier than average conditions in southern California.  All of the southern part of the nation are at risk of having above normal wildfire conditions starting this winter and lasting into the spring;
• Northern Plains: colder and wetter than average.  Spring flooding could be a concern in parts of this region;
• Southern Plains and Gulf Coast States: warmer and drier than average. This will likely exacerbate drought conditions in these regions;
• Florida and south Atlantic Coast: drier than average, with an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures. Above normal wildfire conditions;
• Ohio and Tennessee Valleys: wetter than average with equal chances for above-, near-, or below-average temperatures. Potential for increased storminess and flooding;
• Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather for these regions is often driven not by La Nina but by the Arctic Oscillation. If enough cold air and moisture are in place, areas north of the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast could see above-average snow;
• Great Lakes: colder and wetter than average;
• Hawaii: above-average temperatures in the western islands with above normal precipitation during the winter.  Some drought recovery is expected across the state with Kauai and Oahu having the best potential for full recovery.
• Alaska: colder than average over the southern half of the state and the panhandle with below average precipitation in the interior eastern part of the state.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20111020_winteroutlook.html

NOAA greenhouse gas index continues climbing

November 9, 2011

NOAA�s updated Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI), which measures the direct climate influence of many greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane, shows a continued steady upward trend that began with the Industrial Revolution of the 1880s.

Started in 2004, the AGGI reached 1.29 in 2010. That means the combined heating effect of long-lived greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere by human activities has increased by 29 percent since 1990, the �index� year used as a baseline for comparison. This is slightly higher than the 2009 AGGI, which was 1.27, when the combined heating effect of those additional greenhouse gases was 27 percent higher than in 1990.

�The increasing amounts of long-lived greenhouse gases in our atmosphere indicate that climate change is an issue society will be dealing with for a long time,� said Jim Butler, director of the Global Monitoring Division of NOAA�s Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo. �Climate warming has the potential to affect most aspects of society, including water supplies, agriculture, ecosystems and economies. NOAA will continue to monitor these gases into the future to further understand the impacts on our planet.�

The AGGI is analogous to the dial on an electric blanket � that dial does not tell you exactly how hot you will get, nor does the AGGI predict a specific temperature. Yet just as turning the dial up increases the heat of an electric blanket, a rise in the AGGI means greater greenhouse warming.

NOAA scientists created the AGGI recognizing that carbon dioxide is not the only greenhouse gas affecting the balance of heat in the atmosphere. Many other long-lived gases also contribute to warming, although not currently as much as carbon dioxide.

The AGGI includes methane and nitrous oxide, for example, greenhouse gases that are emitted by human activities and also have natural sources and sinks. It also includes several chemicals known to deplete Earth�s protective ozone layer, which are also active as greenhouse gases. The 2010 AGGI reflects several changes in the concentration of these gases, including:

• A continued steady increase in carbon dioxide: Global carbon dioxide levels rose to an average of 389 parts per million in 2010, compared with 386 ppm in 2009, and 354 in the index or comparison year of 1990. Before the Industrial Revolution of the 1880s, carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere was about 280 ppm. Carbon dioxide levels swing up and down in natural seasonal cycles, but human activities � primarily the burning of coal, oil, and gas for transportation and power � have driven a consistent upward trend in concentration. 
• A continued recent increase in methane: Methane levels rose in 2010 for the fourth consecutive year after remaining nearly constant for the preceding 10 years, up to 1799 parts per billion. Methane measured 1794 ppb in 2009, and 1714 ppb in 1990. Pound for pound, methane is 25 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, but there�s less of it in the atmosphere.

• A continued steady increase in nitrous oxide: Best known as laughing gas in dentistry, nitrous oxide is also a greenhouse gas emitted from natural sources and as a byproduct of agricultural fertilization, livestock manure, sewage treatment and some industrial processes.
• A continued recent drop in two chlorofluorocarbons, CFC11 and CFC12: Levels of these two compounds � which are ozone-depleting chemicals in addition to greenhouse gases � have been dropping at about one percent per year since the late 1990s, because of an international agreement, the Montreal Protocol, to protect the ozone layer.

Scientists at NOAA�s Earth System Research Laboratory prepare the AGGI each year from atmospheric data collected through an international cooperative air sampling network of more than 100 sites around the world.

The 2011 Arctic Report Card, compiled by scientists from 14 countries, "shows that record-setting changes are occurring throughout the Arctic environmental system.

"Given the projection of continued global warming, it is very likely that major Arctic changes will continue in years to come, with increasing climatic, biological and social impacts," the report said.

The authors of the annual report -- first released in 2006 -- said there is now sufficient data to indicate a "persistent decline in the thickness and summer extent of the sea ice cover, and a warmer, fresher upper ocean."

Average temperatures over much of the Arctic have risen some 2.5 degrees F (1.5 degrees C) from a 1981-2010 baseline, and the minimum area of sea ice recorded this year, in September 2011, was the second lowest since 1979.

The "profound and continuing" changes have had an uneven impact on Arctic wildlife, threatening the icy habitats of polar bears and walruses but giving whales greater access to northern feeding areas, the report said.

The warming has also caused new vegetation to sprout in many areas, and has led to a 20 percent increase in phytoplankton, microscopic organisms that are the basis of the oceanic food chain.

The report also found that changes in Arctic winter wind patterns first detected in 2010 have continued.

"The Arctic region continues to warm, with less sea ice and greater green vegetation," said Monica Medina, of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

NOAA-led study: Colorado oil and gas wells emit more pollutants than expected

Feb. 27, 2012  Contact: Katy Human, 303-497-4747

 

When NOAA scientists began routinely monitoring the atmosphere's composition at a tower north of Denver a few years ago, their instruments immediately sniffed something strange: plumes of air rich with chemical pollutants including the potent greenhouse gas methane.

Some of the pollutants picked up are known to damage air quality. Another, methane, is 25 times more effective per molecule than carbon dioxide at trapping heat in the atmosphere. The scientists were concerned. None of NOAA's other air composition monitoring towers - there are eight, in total, scattered around the continental United States - had recorded anything similar.

 

"So we set out to figure out where these chemicals were coming from, by going from the tower measurements 1,000 feet high up, down to the ground in a mobile laboratory," said Gabrielle Petron, Ph.D., an atmospheric scientist with NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) and the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES).

Petron and co-workers customized

In 2008, the year most of the data were collected, Weld County had nearly 14,000 operating oil and gas wells.

The research team's chemical fingerprinting work showed that oil and gas equipment and activities - well pads equipment including condensate storage tanks, pipelines, compressors and more - leaked or vented an estimated 4 percent of all natural gas produced to the atmosphere. That loss is about double the previous best-guess estimate, based on engineering calculations and industry data, of about 2 percent loss.

"We may have been significantly underestimating methane emissions by this industry in this region," Petron said.

The team also found that emissions of benzene, a known carcinogen, are underestimated. Benzene is tracked and regulated by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

Petron and her colleagues found evidence of at least two sources of benzene in the region: oil and gas operations and something else, most likely cars and trucks on roads. And the new study found benzene emissions from oil and gas operations in the region to be significantly higher than expected, between 385 and 2,055 metric tons in 2008, compared with earlier estimates ranging from about 60 to 145 per year.

Finally, the researchers' findings suggest that oil and gas-related emissions of more reactive volatile organic compounds, which contribute to lung-damaging ozone pollution, are also underestimated. More reactive VOCs were not directly measured in the 2008 study, but are almost certainly co-emitted with methane and larger alkanes. According to the EPA, the northern Front Range has been out of compliance with federal health-based standards in the summer since 2007.

Chemist Greg Frost, Ph.D. also with NOAA and CIRES and a co-author of the new study, said the work demonstrates the value of studying emissions from several perspectives. Top-down studies (such as from the tall tower) can complement and verify bottom-up approaches (such as estimates based on average leak rates at pipe junctions).

"What Gabrielle has done is to use the mobile laboratory and tower data to make top-down estimates of emissions, which can be used to evaluate the bottom-up estimates from industry and regulatory agencies," Frost said. "This is going to inspire a lot more research."

U.S. records warmest March; more than 15,000 warm temperature records broken

First quarter of 2012 also warmest on record; early March tornado outbreak is year's first "billion dollar disaster"

Record and near-record breaking temperatures dominated the eastern two-thirds of the nation and contributed to the warmest March on record for the contiguous United States, a record that dates back to 1895. More than 15,000 warm temperature records were broken during the month.

The average temperature of 51.1 F was 8.6 degrees above the 20^th century average for March and 0.5 F warmer than the previous warmest March in 1910. Of the more than 1,400 months (117+ years) that have passed since the U.S. climate record began, only one month, January 2006, has seen a larger departure from its average temperature than March 2012.

Note: The March 2012 Monthly Climate Report for the United States has several pages of supplemental information and data regarding the unprecedented early 2012 temperatures.

U.S. climate highlights - March

•   Every state in the nation experienced at least one record warm daily temperature during March. According to preliminary data, there were 15,272 warm temperature records broken (7,755 daytime records, 7,517 nighttime records). Hundreds of locations across the country broke their all-time March records. There were 21 instances of the nighttime temperatures being as warm, or warmer, than the existing record daytime temperature for a given date.

•   A persistent weather pattern led to 25 states east of the Rockies having their warmest March on record. An additional 15 states had monthly temperatures ranking among their ten warmest. That same pattern brought cooler-than-average conditions to the West Coast states of Washington, Oregon, and California.
• Temperatures in Alaska during March, which are not included in the contiguous U.S. average value, ranked as the tenth coolest on record.
• The nationally-averaged precipitation total was 2.73 inches, which is 0.33 inches above average. The Pacific Northwest and the Southern Plains were much wetter than average during March while drier-than-average conditions prevailed in the interior West, Northeast, and Florida. Colorado had its driest March on record.

• According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, as of April 3^rd, 36.8 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, a decrease from 38.7 percent at the end of February and an increase from 28.8 percent a year ago on April 5, 2011. Above-average precipitation across the Southern Plains improved long-term drought conditions Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas.
• Warmer-than-average conditions across the eastern U.S. also created an environment favorable for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, there were 223 preliminary tornado reports during March, a month that averages 80 tornadoes annually. The majority of the tornadoes occurred during the March 2^nd-3^rd outbreak across the Ohio Valley and Southeast, which caused 40 fatalities. Total losses from this event are estimated to exceed $1.5 billion dollars, making this the first event of 2012 to exceed one billion dollars in damages and losses.
• On March 9, a large weather system impacted the Hawaiian Islands, bringing extreme rainfall and severe thunderstorms. A rare EF-0 tornado hit the towns of Lanikai and Kailua on Oahu, causing minor damage. A hailstone with the largest diameter on record for the state, measuring 4¼ inches, fell on Oahu during this event.

Year-to-date (January-March)

• The first three months of 2012 were also record warm for the contiguous United States with an average temperature of 42.0°F, 6.0°F above the long-term average.
• Year-to-Date temperature evolution for Green Bay, Wisconsin versus the previous four warmest years.
• Twenty-five states, all east of the Rockies, had their warmest first quarter on record, and an additional 16 states had first-quarter temperatures ranking among their ten warmest.
• Numerous cities had a record warm January-March, including Chicago, Boston, and Washington, D.C. No state in the contiguous U.S. had below-average January-March temperatures.
• Alaska had its ninth coolest January-March period; temperatures were 5.2°F below average.
• The nationally-averaged precipitation total for January-March was 0.29 inches below the long-term average. States across the Pacific Northwest and Southern Plains were wetter than average, while the Intermountain West, parts of the Ohio Valley, and the entire Eastern Seaboard were drier than average.
• NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index, an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, drought and tropical cyclones, was 39 percent, nearly twice the long-term average and the highest value on record for the January-March period. The predominant factor was the large area experiencing extremes in warm daily maximum and minimum temperatures.

Cold season (October-March) and 12-month period (April 2011-May 2012)

• Heating Degree Day amomalies, October 2011 through March 2012, versus the 1981-2010 average.
• The cold season, which is defined as October 2011 through March 2012 and an important period for national heating needs, was second warmest on record for the contiguous U.S. with a nationally-averaged temperature 3.8°F above average. Only the cold season of 1999-2000 was warmer. Twenty-one states across the Midwest and Northeast, areas of the country with high annual heating demands, were record warm for the six-month period.
• The previous 12-month period (April-March), which includes the second hottest summer (June-August) and fourth warmest winter (December-February), was the warmest such period for the contiguous United States. The 12-month running average temperature was 55.4°F, which is 2.6°F above the 20^th century average.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/national/2012/3

The data presented in this report are preliminary. Ranks and anomalies may change as more complete data are received and processed. Effective November 2011, the GHCN-M version 3.1.0 dataset of monthly mean temperature replaced the GHCN-M version 3 monthly mean temperature dataset. Beginning with the October 2011 Global monthly State of the Climate Report, GHCN-M version 3.1.0 is used for NCDC climate monitoring activities, including calculation of global land surface temperature anomalies and trends.

For more information about this newest version, please see the Modifications to Pairwise Homogeneity Adjustment software to address coding errors and improve run-time efficiency.

April 2012 Selected Climate
Anomalies and Events Map

Global Highlights

• The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for April 2012 was 14.35C (57.87F), which is 0.65�C (1.17F) above the 20^th century average of 13.7C (56.7F). The margin of error associated with this temperature is +/-0.08C (0.14F). The global temperature departure from the 20^th century average and the monthly rank were the highest since November 2010, near the onset of first back-to-back La Ni�as in 2010.
• The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for April 2012 was 14.35C (57.87F), which is 0.65C (1.17F) above the 20^th century average of 13.7C (56.7F). The margin of error associated with this temperature is +/-0.08C (0.14F). The global temperature departure from the 20^th century average and the monthly rank were the highest since November 2010, near the onset of first back-to-back La Ni�as in 2010.
• The global land surface temperature was 1.39C (2.50F) above the 20^th century average of 8.1C (46.5F), making this the second warmest April, behind 2007. The margin of error is +/-0.11C (0.20F). Warmer-than-average conditions engulfed much of the world's land areas, with the most notable warmth across Alaska, the contiguous United States, Mexico, and most of Russia. Cooler-than-average conditions were present across northern Australia and parts of western Europe.
• The global land surface temperature was 1.39C (2.50F) above the 20^th century average of 8.1C (46.5F), making this the second warmest April, behind 2007. The margin of error is +/-0.11C (0.20F).
• For the ocean, the April global sea surface temperature was 0.38C (0.68F) above the 20^th century average of 16.0C (60.9F)�the 11^th warmest April on record. The margin of error is +/-0.04C (0.07F).
• For the ocean, the April global sea surface temperature was 0.38C (0.68F) above the 20^th century average of 16.0C (60.9F)�the 11^th warmest April on record. The margin of error is +/-0.04C (0.07F).
• The average Arctic sea ice extent during April 2012 was 1.8 percent below the 1979�2000 average, ranking as the 17^th largest April extent since satellite records began in 1979 and the highest average April sea ice extent since 2001.
• On the opposite pole, Antarctic sea ice during April was 9.2 percent above average and ranked as the sixth largest April extent in the 34-year period of record.
• The Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during April 2012 was much-below average, and ranked as the fourth smallest April snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record. Both the Eurasian and North American April snow cover extents were below average, ranking seventh and eighth smallest on record, respectively.
• Precipitation was variable across the globe during April. Above-average precipitation fell over areas that include most of Europe, southern Brazil, the central United States, and parts of eastern Asia. Below-average precipitation was observed across eastern Brazil, the eastern United States, and southern parts of South America and Australia.

Introduction

The data presented in this report are preliminary. Ranks and anomalies may change as more complete data are received and processed.

Temperature anomalies for April 2012 and January�April 2012 are shown on the dot maps in the following section. The dot maps on the left provide a spatial representation of anomalies calculated from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) version 3.1.0 dataset of land surface stations using a 1961�1990 base period. The dot maps on the right are a product of a merged land surface and sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly analysis developed by Smith et al. (2008). For the merged land surface and SST analysis, temperature anomalies with respect to the 1971�2000 average for land and ocean are analyzed separately and then merged to form the global analysis. For more information, please visit NCDC's Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

Temperatures

In the atmosphere, 500-millibar height pressure anomalies correlate well with temperatures at the Earth's surface. The average position of the upper-level ridges of high pressure and troughs of low pressure�depicted by positive and negative 500-millibar height anomalies on the April 2012 map�is generally reflected by areas of positive and negative temperature anomalies at the surface, respectively.

April

Unlike March 2012, where extremely cool and warm temperatures engulfed much of the Northern Hemisphere land surfaces, most of the world's land areas experienced warmer-than-average temperatures during April 2012. The most notable warmth was observed across Russia, the United States, Alaska, and parts of the Middle East and western Europe. After experiencing very warm March temperatures, parts of western Europe experienced cooler-than-average temperatures, and in some locations the April 2012 temperatures were cooler than the March 2012 temperatures. Other areas that experienced cooler-than-average conditions during the month include southern South America, southeastern Africa, and northern Australia. Globally, the April 2012 land-only surface temperature was 1.39C (2.50F) above the 20^th century average of 8.1C (46.5F)�the second warmest April in the 133-year record, behind 2007. This was also the warmest land-only monthly temperature departure from the 20^th century average since November 2010 and the 137^th consecutive month with global land temperatures above the 20^th century average. The last time land-only worldwide temperatures were below average was November 2000 (0.02C/0.04F below average). Of note, the Northern Hemisphere land surface temperature was 1.74C (3.13F) above the 20^th century average, marking the warmest April since records began in 1880.

Several national highlights are found below:

• The contiguous United States had a mean temperature of 13.2C (55.7F) in April 2012, which was 2.0C (3.6F) above the 20^th century average, resulting in the third warmest April since national records began in 1895. Please visit NCDC's National State of the Climate report for additional information.


• The United Kingdom's (UK) mean temperature during April 2012 was 0.6C (1.1F) below the 1971�2000 average�the coolest April mean temperature since 1989. According to the UK's Met Office, April 2012 was cooler than March 2012, an unusual event that last happened in 1998. For the first time since April 1989, April daily temperatures never reached 20C (68F). Provisionally, England, Wales, and Scotland had their coolest April since 1989, while Northern Island experienced its coolest April since 2000.


• Spain experienced below-average temperatures during April 2012. According to Spain's National Agency of Meteorology (Agencia Estatal de Meteorologa), the April 2012 national mean temperature was 12.1C (53.8F), which is 0.2C (0.4F) below the 1971-2000 average.


• According to Norway's Institute of Meteorology (Meteorologisk Institutt), Norway experienced cooler-than-average temperatures during April 2012. Temperatures during the month were 0.2C (0.4F) below average. This was the coolest April since 1998.


• Sweden also had its coolest April since 1998, according to the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI).


• According to Germany's Weather Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst), Germany as a whole had a mean temperature of 8.1C (46.9F), which is 0.8C (1.4F) above the 1961-1990 average and the 47^th warmest (or 86^th coolest) April since national records began in 1881.


• In Antarctica, the South Pole station reported below-average temperatures during April 2012, with an average temperature of -59.6C (-75.3F), which is 2.1C (3.8F) below average. On April 6^th, a new daily minimum temperature record was set when temperatures fell to -73.4C (-100.1F), surpassing the previous record of -71.7C (-97.1F) set in 1982. The period of record covers 1957-2012. The April 6^th minimum temperature also broke the record for the earliest recording of -73.3C (-100.0F) at the South Pole station. The previous record of -75.2C (-103.4F) was set on April 7, 1982.

The worldwide ocean temperature during April 2012 was 0.38C (0.68F) above the 20^th century average of 16.0C (60.9F)�the coolest April since 2008 and tied with 2011 as the eleventh warmest April on record. April 2012 was the 427^th consecutive month with ocean temperatures warmer than the 20^th century average. The last time the ocean temperatures were below average was September 1976 (0.01C/0.02F below average). A snapshot of the global temperatures indicates that warmer-than-average temperatures were observed across the North Atlantic, north-central Pacific Ocean, and across the mid-latitude southern oceans. Cooler-than-average conditions were present across the northeastern and central Pacific Ocean, parts of the southern half of the South Atlantic Ocean, and across the higher latitudes of the southern oceans. The El Ni�o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is a climate pattern defined by a periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (El Ni�o) and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere (Southern Oscillation) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, transitioned from La Ni�a phase to neutral conditions during April 2012, as temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean continued to warm. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2012.

Averaging the global land and ocean as a whole, the combined land and ocean surface temperature during April 2012 was 0.65C (1.17F) above the 20^th century average of 13.7C (56.7F), marking the fifth warmest April since records began in 1880 and the 326^th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20^th century average. February 1985 was the last month with below-average temperatures, at 0.01C (0.02F) below average. This was also the warmest global land and ocean surface temperature anomaly since November 2010, near the onset of first back-to-back La Ni�as in 2010.

* Please note that the value depicted as record year (2000) for the Northern Hemisphere land is the second warmest year on record.

⁺ Please note that the value depicted as record year (2007 and 2010) for the Northern Hemisphere land and ocean tie for the second warmest year on record.

Year-to-date (January-April)

The January�April map of temperature anomalies shows that warmer-than-average temperatures occurred across the contiguous United States, southern Canada, Mexico, southern South America, the United Kingdom, Scandinavia, northern Russia, and parts of southeastern Asia. Cooler-than-average conditions were observed across Alaska, northern Africa, central Asia, eastern Russia, and most of Australia.

The globally-averaged land and ocean temperature for January�April 2012 was 0.46�C (0.83�F) above the 20^th century average of 12.6C (54.8F), the coolest such period since 2008 and the 15^th warmest such period in the 133-year record. The land-only global average temperature anomaly of 0.75C (1.35F) above the 20^th century average of 4.8C (40.5F) ties with 2011 as the 17^th warmest such period and was the coolest such period since 1997. Meanwhile, the global ocean temperature tied with 1999 as the 13^th warmest such period, with an anomaly of 0.35C (0.63F) above the 20^th century average of 15.9C (60.7F)�the coolest January�April anomaly since 2008.

• The contiguous United States mean temperature during January�April was 7.4�C (45.4�F), which is 3.0�C (5.4�F) above the long-term average and the warmest such period since national records began in 1895. Please visit NCDC's National State of the Climate report for additional information.


• According to Norway's Institute of Meteorology (Meteorologisk Institutt), the January�April 2012 temperature for the country as a whole was 1.7C (3.1F) above the 1961-1990 average, resulting in the 20^th warmest such period since national records began in 1900.

Precipitation

The maps below represent anomaly values based on the GHCN version 2 dataset of land surface stations using a base period of 1961�1990. During April 2012, above-average precipitation fell over areas that included the central and northwestern United States, and parts of northern and southern South America, Europe, and eastern Asia. Drier-than-average conditions were present across the eastern United States, the Hawaiian Islands, eastern Brazil, and southern parts of South America, and Australia.

April 2012 Precipitation Anomalies in Millimeters

April 2012 Precipitation Percent Departures

• The decline of the La Ni�a brought to an end the wet conditions that eastern Australia had been experiencing for several months. According to Australia's Bureau of Meteorology, Australia experienced drier-than-average conditions across most of the nation, with 41 percent below-average rainfall. This was the 34^th driest April in the nations 113-year record. Western Australia experienced 57 percent below-average precipitation in April, which was the lowest since April 2001.


• The United Kingdom received a total of 126.5 mm (5.0 inches) of precipitation during April 2012, which is the UK's wettest April since national records began in 1910. Provisionally, England had its wettest April on record, and also tied with 1998 with the highest number of rainy days in April in the last five decades.


• France experienced above-average precipitation, with 70 percent above average. This was France's wettest April since 1959 and fifth wettest since national records began.

U.S. experiences second warmest May, hottest spring on record

Lower 48 also experienced record warm year-to-date and twelve-month periods

The average temperature for the contiguous U.S. during May was 64.3F, 3.3F above the long-term average, making it the second warmest May on record. The month's high temperatures also contributed to the warmest spring, warmest year-to-date, and warmest 12-month period the nation has experienced since recordkeeping began in 1895.

The spring season's (March-May) nationally-averaged temperature was 57.1F, 5.2�F above the 1901-2000 long-term average, surpassing the previous warmest spring (1910) by 2.0F.

Precipitation totals across the country were mixed during May, with the nation as a whole being drier than average. The nationally-averaged precipitation total of 2.51 inches was 0.36 inch below average. The coastal Southeast received some drought relief when Tropical Storm Beryl brought heavy rains to the region late in the month.

Note: The May/Spring Monthly Climate Report for the United States has several pages of supplemental information and data regarding some of the exceptional events from the month and season.

U.S. climate highlights - May

• Warmer-than-average temperatures occurred across all parts of the contiguous U.S., except the Northwest, during May. Twenty-six states had May temperatures ranking among their ten warmest.

  
  

     May 2012 Statewide Temperature (top) and Precipitation (bottom) ranks

• Precipitation patterns across the contiguous U.S. were mixed during May. The Eastern Seaboard and Upper Midwest were wetter than average. North Carolina, South Carolina, Vermont, New Hampshire and Minnesota had May precipitation totals among their ten wettest. Dry conditions prevailed across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley, Southern Plains and the Interior West with Arkansas, Missouri, Kansas, Nevada and Utah having a top ten dry May.

• Tropical Storm Beryl made landfall near Jacksonville, Fla., on May 28, bringing beneficial rainfall to parts of the drought-stricken Southeast. Beryl occurred on the heels of Tropical Storm Alberto, which occurred offshore the Carolinas, marking the third time on record that two tropical cyclones reached tropical storm strength during May (prior to the start of June 1 hurricane season) in the North Atlantic basin. (click for a table of all known pre-season tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic)
• Ongoing drought, combined with windy conditions, created ideal wildfire conditions across the Southwest. The Whitewater-Baldy Fire complex in the Gila National Forest of western New Mexico charred over 210,000 acres by the beginning of June. It surpassed 2011's Las Conchas Fire as largest wildfire on record for the state.
• According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, as of May 29^th, 37.4 percent of the contiguous U.S. experienced drought conditions, a slight decrease from 38.2 percent at the beginning of May. Drought conditions improved across the coastal Southeast, the Southern Plains, Northeast and Upper Midwest while they deteriorated for parts of the Mid-South and Southwest.

U.S. climate highlights - Spring (March-May)

• The nationally-averaged spring temperature of 57.1F was 5.2F above the long-term average. With the warmest March, third warmest April and second warmest May, Spring 2012 marked the largest temperature departure from average of any season on record for the contiguous United States.

• Spring was drier than average for the contiguous U.S. as a whole, with a national precipitation total of 7.47 inches, 0.24 inch below average.
• Record and near-record warmth dominated the eastern two-thirds of the nation during spring. Thirty-one states were record warm for the season and 11 additional states had spring temperatures ranking among their ten warmest. Only Oregon and Washington had spring temperatures near normal.
• Wetter-than-average conditions prevailed from the West Coast through the Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Oregon was record wet and Minnesota and Washington were third wettest. The Intermountain West, Ohio Valley, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic were drier than average. Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, Indiana, and Delaware had a top ten dry spring.

• The U.S. Climate Extremes Index, an index that tracks the highest and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, drought and tropical cyclones across the contiguous U.S., was a record-large 44 percent during the March-May period, over twice the average value. Extremes in warm daytime temperatures (81 percent) and warm nighttime temperatures (72 percent) covered large areas of the nation, contributing to the record high value.

U.S. climate highlights  Year-to-date

• The January-May months were the warmest such period on record for the contiguous United States, with an average temperature of 49.2F, 5.0F above the long-term average. Twenty-nine states, all east of the Rockies, were record warm for the five-month period and an additional 14 states had temperatures for the period among their ten warmest.

• The year's first five months also brought dry conditions to much of the East. The Southwest was drier than average while wetter-than-average conditions persisted for the Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest and the western Gulf Coast. The national precipitation total for the five-month period was nearly 1.0 inch below average.

12-month period (June 2011 - May 2012)

  The ten warmest 12-month periods of the U.S. record. Click to enlarge, or click here for expanded information.
• The June 2011-May 2012 period was the warmest 12-month period of any 12 months on record for the contiguous United States. The nationally-averaged temperature of 56.0F was 3.2F above the long-term average, surpassing the previous warmest 12-month period, set last month, by 0.4F. The 12-month period encapsulated the second warmest summer, fourth warmest winter, and the warmest spring on record. Every state across the contiguous U.S. had warmer than average temperatures for the period, except Washington, which was near normal.
• Each of the 12 months from June 2011 through May 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895-present record. The odds of this occurring randomly are 1 in 531,441.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/national/2012/4

Climate Highlights  June  2012

Global Highlights

• The average combined global land and ocean surface temperature for June 2012 was 0.63C (1.13F) above the 20^th century average of 15.5C (59.9F). This is the fourth warmest June since records began in 1880.


• The Northern Hemisphere land and ocean average surface temperature for June 2012 was the all-time warmest June on record, at 1.30C (2.34F) above average.


• The globally-averaged land surface temperature for June 2012 was also the all-time warmest June on record, at 1.07C (1.93F) above average.


• ENSO-neutral conditions continued in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during June 2012 as sea surface temperature anomalies continued to rise. The June worldwide ocean surface temperatures ranked as the 10^th warmest June on record.


• The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for January�June 2012 was the 11^th warmest on record, at 0.52C (0.94F) above the 20^th century average.

Please Note: The data presented in this report are preliminary. Ranks and anomalies may change as more complete data are received and processed. Effective with the July 2010 State of the Climate Report, NCDC transitioned to the new version (version 3b) of the extended reconstructed sea surface temperature (ERSST) dataset. ERSST.v3b is an improved extended SST reconstruction over version 2. For more information about the differences between ERSST.v3b and ERSST.v2 and to access the most current data, please visit NCDC's Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

Introduction

Temperature anomalies for June 2012 are shown on the dot maps below. The dot maps on the left provide a spatial representation of anomalies calculated from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) dataset of land surface stations using a 1961�1990 base period. The dot maps on the right are a product of a merged land surface and sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly analysis developed by Smith et al. (2008). For the merged land surface and SST analysis, temperature anomalies with respect to the 1971-2000 average for land and ocean are analyzed separately and then merged to form the global analysis. For more information, please visit NCDC's Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

Temperatures

In the atmosphere, 500-millibar height pressure anomalies correlate well with temperatures at the Earth's surface. The average position of the upper-level ridges of high pressure and troughs of low pressure�depicted by positive and negative 500-millibar height anomalies on the June 2012 map�is generally reflected by areas of positive and negative temperature anomalies at the surface, respectively.

June

The average global temperature across land and oceans during June 2012 was 0.63C (1.13F) above the 20^th century average of 15.5C (59.9F) and ranked as the fourth warmest June since records began in 1880. June 2012 also marks the 36^th consecutive June and 328^th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20^th century average. The last below-average June temperature was June 1976 and the last below-average temperature for any month was February 1985. It was the second warmest June in the Northern Hemisphere, behind only the record warmth of 2010. The Southern Hemisphere had its 12^th warmest June on record.

The global land surface temperature for June was 1.07C (1.93F) above the 20^th century average of 13.3C (55.9F), the warmest June on record. This is the second month in a row that the global land temperature was the warmest on record for that month.

The Northern Hemisphere average land temperature, where the majority of Earth's land is located, was record warmest for June. This makes three months in a row ' April, May, and June ' in which record-high monthly land temperature records were set. Most areas experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of North America and Eurasia, and northern Africa. Only northern and western Europe, and the northwestern United States were notably cooler than average.

• Austria recorded its highest ever June temperature of 37.7C (99.9F) on June 30^th in two locations � the capital city of Vienna and in German-Altenburg, Nope. This bests the previous record of 37.2C (98.9F) set on June 22^nd, 2000 in both Lutmannburg, Burganland and Langenlebarn, Nope. The monthly temperature averaged across Austria was the sixth warmest June since national records began 250 years ago.


• Norway experienced its 25^th coolest June since records began in 1900, at 1.2C (2.2F) below average. Parts of eastern Norway observed temperatures that were 2-3C (3.6-4.5F) below their local monthly averages.


• The monthly temperature during June in the United Kingdom was 0.3C (0.5F) below the 1971�2000 average, making this the coolest June since 1991.

The Southern Hemisphere land temperature was the 20^th warmest on record.

• Australia remained cooler than average during June. The average daytime (maximum) temperature was 0.27C (0.49F) below the 1961-1990 average, while the nighttime (minimum) temperature had a greater departure, 0.94C (1.69F) below average.

Across the world's oceans, the June average global sea surface temperature was 0.47�C (0.85F) above the 20^th century average of 16.4C (61.5F), the 10^th warmest June on record. Ocean temperatures were notably below average in the northeastern Pacific Ocean and much higher than average in the northeast Atlantic and in the Labrador Sea near Greenland. The region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean where ENSO conditions are measured also trended higher than average in June. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Nino watch, and stated that there is an increased chance for El Ni�o beginning in July�September 2012.

Year-to-date (January-June)

 January-June 2012

Following the dissipation of La Nina in April, record warmth over land during May and June and increasing ocean temperature anomalies pushed 2012 near the top 10 warmest status for the first half of the year. The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January�June period was 0.52C (0.94F) above the 20^th century average of 13.5C (56.3F), ranking as the 11^th warmest such period on record. The greatest January-June warmth was observed over most of North America, southern Greenland, and most of Russia. The first half of 2012 was notably cooler than average across Alaska, Mongolia, and Australia.

• Alaska had its 16^th coolest January�June since records began in 1918, with a temperature 1.5C (2.7F) below the 1971-2000 average.

Of note, the year-to-date global anomalies for 2012 have increased each month as the year has progressed and La Nina conditions waned - January: +0.35C (+0.65F); January-February: +0.37-C (+0.67-F); January-March: +0.39C (+0.70F); January-April: +0.46C (+0.83F); January-May: +0.50C (+0.90F), and JanuaryJune: +0.52C (+0.94F). The record for the warmest January-June was set in 2010, with a temperature that was 0.70C (1.26F) above average.

Global Year to Date Temperature Anomalies

The January�June worldwide land surface temperature was 0.87C (1.57F ) above the 20^th century average, marking the sixth warmest such period on record.

The global ocean surface temperature for the year to date was 0.39C (0.70F) above average and ranked as the 12^th warmest such period on record. This was the warmest monthly departure from average since August 2010.

Images of sea surface temperature conditions are available for all weeks during 2012 from the weekly SST page.

Precipitation

The maps below represent anomaly values based on the GHCN dataset of land surface stations using a base period of 1961-1990. As is typical, precipitation anomalies during June 2012 varied significantly around the world.

• Low pressure systems brought the United Kingdom its wettest June since national records began in 1910. England and Wales each tied with 1860 as the wettest June since their records began in 1766.


• The Southwest Asian monsoon made its way northward across India during June. As of June 27^th, the country as whole reported monthly rainfall that was 77 percent of the average amount received. Regionally, northwest India was just 37 percent of average, while east and northeast India was wetter than usual, at 104 percent of average. By the last week in June, the monsoon had reached central India.

By Philip Bump

Lake Superior is the largest and northernmost Great Lake, containing almost three times as much water as Lake Michigan, the second largest in volume. In fact, it contains more water than the other Great Lakes combined. Which should mean that it�s cold.

Calling it hotis a stretch but all of the water is heating up far more than expected. From Climate Central (Which is also the source of the chart)

As the above chart shows, based on the 30-year average, the lake�s average water temperature should be in the mid-50s. But thanks to scant lake ice cover this past winter, along with a rare March heat wave and warmer-than-average weather since then, the lake began warming earlier than normal, and that warming has kept right on going. Wintertime ice cover on the Great Lakes was the lowest observed since such records began in 1980.

The chart itself is pretty amazing. At no point in 2012 has the surface temperature been below average, and it�s now spiking well above. Temperatures today range from 70 degrees at the southern shore to 60 at the northern-most points.

 

 

The Whole Article Below

 

http://grist.org/news/lake-superior-is-so-hot-right-now/

 

 

State of the Climate

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Climatic Data Center

July 2012: hottest month on record for contiguous United States

Drought expands to cover nearly 63% of the Lower 48; wildfires consume 2 million acres

The average temperature for the contiguous U.S. during July was 77.6F, 3.3F above the 20th century average, marking the hottest July and the hottest month on record for the nation. The previous warmest July for the nation was July 1936 when the average U.S. temperature was 77.4F. The warm July temperatures contributed to a record-warm first seven months of the year and the warmest 12-month period the nation has experienced since recordkeeping began in 1895.

Precipitation totals were mixed during July, with the contiguous U.S. as a whole being drier than average. The nationally averaged precipitation total of 2.57 inches was 0.19 inch below average. Near-record dry conditions were present for the middle of the nation, with the drought footprint expanding to cover nearly 63 percent of the Lower 48, according the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Note: The July Monthly Climate Report for the United States has several pages of supplemental information and data regarding some of the exceptional events from the month and season.

U.S. climate highlights: July

• Higher-than-average temperatures engulfed much of the contiguous U.S. during July, with the largest temperature departures from the 20th century average occurring across most of the Plains, the Midwest, and along the Eastern Seaboard. Virginia had its warmest July on record, with a statewide temperature 4.0F above average. In total, 32 states had July temperatures among its ten warmest, with seven states having their second warmest July on record.

• Drier-than-average conditions continued across the Central Plains and Midwest during July. Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri had July precipitation totals ranking among their ten driest. Maine had its fifth driest July on record.

• An active storm pattern in the Southwest contributed to California having its fifth wettest July on record and Nevada having its eighth wettest. Wetter-than-average conditions were also observed through the rest of the Southwest, along the western Gulf Coast, and through the Ohio Valley where West Virginia had its tenth wettest July.
• The warm and dry conditions over a large portion of the country were associated with ideal wildfire conditions. Over 2 million acres were burned nationwide during July due to wildfires, nearly half a million acres above average, and the fourth most on record since 2000.
• A list of select July temperature and precipitation records can be found here.

Drought conditions update

• The May-July months, an important period for agriculture, was the second warmest and 12th driest such three-months for the Lower 48, contributing to rapid expansion of drought. The central regions of the country were hardest hit by the drought, where ten states had three-month precipitation totals among their ten driest, including Nebraska, Kansas, and Arkansas which were record dry.

• According to the July 31, 2012, U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), 62.9 percent of the contiguous U.S. was experiencing moderate to exceptional drought at the end of July. This is an increase of about 6.9 percent compared to the end of June. The maximum value of 63.9 percent reached on July 24 is a record in the 13-year history of the USDM.
• The area of the country in the worst drought categories (extreme to exceptional drought) doubled from 10 percent last month to 22 percent this month. The extreme dryness and excessive heat devastated crops and livestock from the Great Plains to Midwest.
• The Primary Corn and Soybean Agricultural Belt, hard hit by drought, experienced its eighth driest July, third driest June-July, and sixth driest April-July (growing season) in the 1895-2012 record.
• According to the Palmer Drought Severity Index, whose record spans the 20th century, about 57 percent of the contiguous U.S. was experiencing moderate-to-extreme drought in July. The last drought this extensive was in December 1956 when about 58 percent of the nation was in moderate-to-extreme drought.

Year-to-date: January-July

• The January-July period was the warmest first seven months of any year on record for the contiguous United States. The national temperature of 56.4F was 4.3F above the long-term average. Most of the contiguous U.S. was record and near-record warm for the seven-month period, except the Pacific Northwest, which was near average.

• The first seven months of 2012 were drier than average, ranking as 15th driest January-July on record. Below-average precipitation totals were observed for a large portion of the country, with 12 states having January-July precipitation totals among their ten driest. Above-average precipitation was observed for the Upper Midwest and the Pacific Northwest.
• The U.S. Climate Extremes Index (USCEI), an index that tracks the highest and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, drought and tropical cyclones across the contiguous U.S., was a record-large 46 percent during the January-July period, over twice the average value, and surpassing the previous record large CEI of 42 percent which occurred in 1934. Extremes in warm daytime temperatures (83 percent) and warm nighttime temperatures (74 percent) both covered record large areas of the nation, contributing to the record high year-to-date USCEI value.

12-month period: August 2011-July 2012

• The August 2011-July 2012 period was the warmest 12-month period of any 12-months on record for the contiguous U.S., narrowly surpassing the record broken last month for the July 2011-June 2012 period by 0.07F. The nationally averaged temperature of 56.1F was 3.3F above the long term average. Except Washington, which was near average, every state across the contiguous U.S. had warmer than average temperatures for the period.

  The ten warmest 12-month periods of the U.S. record. Click to enlarge, or click here for expanded information.

I hear you Elver