Strike and Mortality rates

Once a novel virus goes pandemic the things to look for is the strike rate and the mortality rate.

The strike rate is the percentage of the population who become infected. This is usually around 25% with a novel virus because people have no immunity to that virus.

Then of the people infected, there is the rate of mortality - RoM. This means the percentage of people who die from the new virus.

So far we have 96 people infected and 18 dead, which is a RoM of about 19% but, and this is a big but, there are 71 people hospitalised and this is disturbing for 2 reasons:

1 in a pandemic the health system would collapse and the RoM would be much higher.

2 the number of cases will rise and the health system will collapse and how many of the 71 hospitalised will die and would have died with no medical treatment?


Time will tell.

good luck everyone - this is it

i was thinking the very same thing, yes Kilt ,this could be IT,71 people on ventilators, once

it starts to spread, there wont be enough , and as  you say the Death rate will increase, i

think some people in China have an immunity, because they live so closely with there

animals when it breaks out  of China i think we will see the Death rate surge 

Since this virus has progressed across China "under the radar", how likely is it that it has already spread beyond China?

We might be looking at the very beginnings of a first wave. Spanish Flu started in Kansas at about this time in 1918, but the deadly second wave didn't appear until the fall. With today's population densities, and the way this virus is acting, I'm not sure any historical lessons are particularly valid when predicting if it'll go pandemic, how fast, and how lethal it could potentially be. We'll know soon enough though, I'm guessing.

102 infected 20 dead

more of both to come I think

http://tuoitrenews.vn/international/8943/20-dead-from-china-bird-flu-state-media

Good point - the low recovery rate is what's concerning me more than anything right now.

Very true - in a major pandemic, everything would take a hit. Unlike 1918, we're not equipped to carry on as normal if the shelves run bare, and the lights go out. Scary thought.

North Korea is about the same distance from Beijing as the jump the virus made getting there from Shanghai. Of course, if it ended up in the DPRK we'd never be allowed to know about it.
Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia, Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, Malaysia and the whole of southeast Asia must be getting very nervous right about now, as well as Pakistan and India.

Albert, I always feel better when I come here and see what is what. It is nice to have all this information all in one place and I know many of you folks have been here for a while and I know you are dedicated to getting news out and helping each other.