Next winter's flu ?

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    I know that China has put a lid on the news, but H7N9 does not yet seem to have reached other countries.  However, I believe that it was so wide spread in China that there must be a large resevour of the virus somewhere.

Do you think that H7N9 will wait until the next flu season before breaking out (possibly combined with one or other of the common flu types going around)?  If this is the case then we might have a few more months to stock up rather than weeks.

Is this realistic or just wishful thinking?

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EdwinSm, Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065	Post Options Post Reply Quote EdwinSm, Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Topic: Next winter's flu ? Posted: May 12 2013 at 12:36am
	I know that China has put a lid on the news, but H7N9 does not yet seem to have reached other countries. However, I believe that it was so wide spread in China that there must be a large resevour of the virus somewhere. Do you think that H7N9 will wait until the next flu season before breaking out (possibly combined with one or other of the common flu types going around)? If this is the case then we might have a few more months to stock up rather than weeks. Is this realistic or just wishful thinking?

Albert Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746	Post Options Post Reply Quote Albert Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: May 12 2013 at 6:21am
	It's a realistic thought. It will spread and adapt as it finds colder temps where flus can thrive - such as is next flu season or next winter, or sooner in the southern hemisphere. Who knows when/if it will make the final leap to humans, but with a fatality rate of 25%, it's wise to keep an open eye on it for quite awhile.

jacksdad Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251	Post Options Post Reply Quote jacksdad Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: May 12 2013 at 11:59am
	At the very least, we have to now include the possibility of H7 viruses becoming entrenched in humans (as H1, H2 and H3 have been) and the increased number of possible reassortments, severe infections and resistance to vaccinations that might bring. I think flu watching just got a lot more complicated.
	"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep" "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.

MelodyAtHome Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Valued Member Joined: May 16 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 2018	Post Options Post Reply Quote MelodyAtHome Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: May 12 2013 at 9:13pm
	I just read a tweet on Twitter saying whatever flu China gets in spring we will get in late fall. I don't know if that is true or not but sounds about the right timing.
	Melody Emergency Preparedness 911 http://emergencypreparedness911.blogspot.com/