Bumping Alert to 5?

Hi Guys, anyone else get the feeling this MERS is going global?

Cobber

The key to the whole thing is MERS popping up in new countries. If over the next two weeks there is a flood of reports. We have a pandemic

This comment is for the designer (?) of this site. When I view this www on my computer the rating 1-6 shows up with 4 flashing but it doesn't show on my iPhone. Also a lot of the comments are harder to read on mobile device - they get 'narrower' & narrower as the quoets go down the page.
Is there a way I can view this site easier on my mobile device (a tab where I can choose mobile etc) that I'm missing?
More importantly (esp if above is no) is there anyway site can be modified so I can see alert rating/status on the go? I'm on road alot & just don't haul along computer...
THANKS & GREAT site!!!

With the current data that is out there, there is little or no indication that MERS has much chance of becoming a Pandemic. Short of a mutation to make it airborne, which it is in some cases, there are other diseases, like H7N9 that are more likely to do so.

H7N9 is a probable candidate to launch a Pandemic. Some basic knowledge can go a long way in keeping a clear, level, panic free perspective.  Perhaps CDC and other reporting agencies are notorious for poor tracking and under reporting cases, but there are some hardcore medical facts about the two diseases.

I am a U.S. resident experiencing flu-like symptoms (e.g. coughing, fever, sore throat, etc.). How do I know if I have seasonal influenza, H7N9 influenza, or MERS-CoV (Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus)?

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/h7n9-faq.htm#contracted

There are simple, no numbers, but general indications to support a level 5 alert for anything. We are not out of the woods.  This isn't going to peak in late October. As Christmas and especially the New Year arrives, given data from other years, we will probably see some solid and large flu activity.

Sometimes in the "flu reporting" groups, there are efforts to be the first to wave the red flag.  No one wants there to be a flu pandemic. Well, perhaps some do, but not the CDC or other central health agencies.  In some ways, the government has correctly estimated that the panic caused by a premature alert could kill more people than the flu.

When I see a CDC map, if they even use orange and brown anymore on them instead of pastels where you can hardly even see the difference, with a solid masses of brown and a lot of oranges of widespread and regional outbreaks  in 48 states - then we have a problem.

Medclinician

Kyle wrote: Newbie the reason why you can't see the alert banner on your iPhone is because the iPhone doesn't support flash player and the banners run off of flash player. Also on the bottom of any page on the site there's an option to view the classic site or mobile version.

Hello Newbie, welcome.  We appreciate your question and concerns.  I believe on my phone when I login into the forum it asks for a classic view, or mobile view, but might not be the same for all phones.  Also,  If you register on the forum and include an email, we also do an email blast to the members to alert them of any significant event/change, which we have done 3 times prior.  Other than that, if you follow the Latest News section, it will certainly be immediately posted there, and in a big way.  Going to level 5 will be very clear.   You can also email me anytime at Albert@avianflutalk.com, along with the moderators if you have any questions or if you would like to be personally notified. 

I spoke with WHO. They no longer categorize things in 'levels' like level 5, 4 etc. and have not done so for awhile- so some basic facts would be valuable. I also have been following MERS- since March of 2012 when the first H2H cases were reported in Amman, Jordan. That stat is usually conveniently omitted from  MSM accounts- and most medical blogs. It has been airborne for year and a half. If its a pandemic we may not know it- if its covered up or wrongly diagnosed or simply not diagnosed.
this will be a tricky issue.

We gonna bump this mofo to five? Maybe not until tests are conducted.. But keep them eyes peeled.

I need to work on getting the links to works.  Anyway, not sure about this report of the 5 suspected cases.  Since only 4,000 pilgrims made the trip from Azerbaijan to Hajj, the odds are fairly remote that these cases will turn out positive.  On another note, if they did turn out positive, it would stand to reason that the U.S. would be seeing their first cases since 11,000 traveled from the U.S. to Hajj, over twice as many as that of Azerbaijan.

With the 12-day incubation period, if we don't see an outbreak outside the middle east somewhere by about mid week, then chances are we won't.

On another note, wonder how China is coping with their h7 outbreak that they're certainly trying to cover up.  Wouldn't doubt it if they have a lot of cases at the moment of which one could pop up outside of China very soon. 

Hi Albert

jones wrote: I spoke with WHO. They no longer categorize things in 'levels' like level 5, 4 etc. and have not done so for awhile- so some basic facts would be valuable. I also have been following MERS- since March of 2012 when the first H2H cases were reported in Amman, Jordan. That stat is usually conveniently omitted from  MSM accounts- and most medical blogs. It has been airborne for year and a half. If its a pandemic we may not know it- if its covered up or wrongly diagnosed or simply not diagnosed. this will be a tricky issue.

Am trying to verify this data which is very significant. The most chilling scenario is a Pandemic which neither is verified, tested for, or reported to be a Pandemic.

We will continue to get miniscule reports of ones or twos which can hardly be accurate in terms that MERS is airborne (CIDRAP) and obviously spreading with a death rate of 42%.

This is a release yesterday by WHO of a new case.

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20111113084138AAYfh7U

The same modus operandi  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modus_operandi was used during the Swine Flu  Pandemic   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic of refusing to test and report cases. 

As for a level 5 - even having not checked it out ... and I will - when I was cyber present live at WHO when Margaret Chan announced the Pandemic, she met with the "economic leaders and super powerful 2 hours before  to get permission to announce it.

This appears to be the new alert system in place. 

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2013/06/who-proposes-new-pandemic-flu-alert-levels

Severity assessment is a critical component for assessing pandemic flu risk, and the new guidance includes methods for measuring severity, the WHO said.

A four-phase alert system would replace the current six-phase scheme. The new phases are:

• Interpandemic, the period between pandemics
• Alert, when a new subtype has been identified and increased vigilance and risk assessment are warranted
• Pandemic, a period of global spread of a new subtype as indicated by global risk assessment based on virologic, epidemiologic, and clinical data
• Transition, global risk drops, prompting stepdowns in global actions and response activities

Presumably, the world would be at the "alert" level for H5N1 avian flu, H7N9, and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV).

In a potential pandemic situation, the WHO will appoint an Emergency Committee to advise the director-general, and a pandemic declaration would signal the need for collective global action to manage the risk, according to the WHO.

Conclusion: So level 5 or not - They would announce a Pandemic.  

Pandemic, a period of global spread of a new subtype as indicated by global risk assessment based on virologic, epidemiologic, and clinical data

There then is a criteria when that threshold is crossed and a need response much be taken by WHO to continue to travel and monitor the major outbreaks and for the CDC and CIDRAP to clearly state we are at Pandemic level.

I have always believed, basically, we have a super Pandemic coming. I predicted the last Pandemic when most around me thought my statements were irresponsible and inaccurate. Then, as now, I believe there is a genuine possibility this flu season will launch a Pandemic. I may not live long enough to see it, but it is coming and people had best prepare for it.

We have the nastiest multiple mutated viruses and potential bacterial plagues as well which may make this the first time we have a multiple virus group of Pandemics hitting at the same time.

Just because Mers Cov may launch one, does not mean, and there is substantial research to support this, others may hitch a ride and spread as well.

With many "lab developed" super strains and rogue nations and groups - it may not be a simple matter of just what spreads naturally.  We are already on global alert for a Pandemic. Perhaps not this flu season - but it is not an if, it will never be an if - it is a when.

Medclinician

MERS spreading, undiagnosed and /or misdiagnosed w/ false negatives

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2013/11/12/most_mers_cases_going_undetected_slow_epidemic_underway_study.html

Hi Noho, Cheers for the good find. I just read the report in another site too. I agree with this study completely and it backs up what we have been saying here for months.