According to the PDF version below of the WHO DRAFT PRTOCOL OF THE MEETING GOING ON AT THE MOMENT>  

The draft contains this.

That the decision to change the phase of PANDEMIC alert is expected to trigger a number of cascading actions by countries,possibly including travel resrictions and border closures.

PAGE 1 

 First strategy - contain outbreaks ( with quarantines etc). 

Second strategy - Intensify the worlds preparedness to cope with a pandemic. (Information. Stockpile! Antivirals etc.)

PAGE 5

Key concepts - assortment and response of any kind after possible early pandemic activity detected.

(Containment achievable if rapid response in place.)

Rapid containment - stop further spread of an emerging pandemic.

(This would slow initial spread to give countries enough time to prepare!)

STOCKPILE - NATIONAL REGIONAL and GLOBAL.

Page 10

The first potential signal of early pandemic activity , for example -

Isolation, from a single infected person, of an influenza virus with certain genetic and antigenic features.

Or detection of an expanding cluster of human cases of avian influenza closely related in time and place.

Or detection of a community outbreak of respiratory illness of unknown etiology. 

(Each country is responsible for their own surveillance and detection)!

When Who has satisfied itself after much protocol and verification then they will make a decision to change the phase.

Page 13

A WHO decision to change the phase of pandemic alert is expected to trigger a number of cascading actions by countries, possibly including travel restrictions and border closures.

END

That is it my friends! No mention of any levels just a straight jump to PANDEMIC!!!!!!!!

Don't panic. Be prepared!

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/guidelines/Ra pidResponse_27%2001.pdf

Read full PDF version above.

Thanks.

INFORMATION PAPER

MCHB-TS-D                                                                                                                       19 November 04

SUBJECT:  Pneumonia among US military personnel in the US Central Command

Area of Responsibility (USCENTCOM AOR)

ARMY POSITION:  Pneumonia among US military personnel during Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) has been sporadic and lack a common exposure.  Some of these cases resemble acute eosinophilic pneumonia (AEP) and new-onset tobacco smoking is being investigated further as a potential risk factor.  The Army will continue to study this problem and has raised the level of awareness among physicians to enable the earliest possible diagnosis and treatment.

KEY POINTS:          

a.  From March through August 2003, 19 US military personnel throughout the USCENTCOM AOR developed pneumonia severe enough to warrant medical evacuation and mechanical ventilation; two died.

b.  An Army Epidemiological Consultation (EPICON) began in July 2003.  A summary of the investigation was published in September 2003 in the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5236a1.htm). 

c.  Ten of the 19 severe pneumonia cases in 2003 were diagnosed as acute eosinophilic pneumonia (AEP), a rare but not unknown type of pneumonia.  Since the beginning of OIF 22 US military personnel serving in the USCENTCOM AOR have been diagnosed with AEP; 16 of those were severe cases that required mechanical ventilation.

d.  Two-thirds of all AEP patients became ill in Iraq; the remaining seven were in other countries including Kuwait (3), Djibouti (2), Uzbekistan, and Qatar.  There has been no evidence of a common source exposure or person-to-person transmission.

e.  The only factor shared by all 22 AEP cases has been cigarette smoking, especially recent onset smoking.  Follow-up investigation has revealed no single infectious cause, nor exposure to chemical or biological weapons (including anthrax), or any specific environmental toxins.

BACKGROUND:

a.   During July-September 2003, USACHPPM deployed epidemiology teams to Landstuhl Regional Medical Center and Iraq to investigate severe pneumonia that appeared to be occurring at an unexpectedly high rate among US troops.  The Walter Reed Army Institute of Research (WRAIR) contributed two senior officers for the Iraq team.  A third, US-based team coordinated the investigation, served as the central data collection point, and collaborated with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the WRAIR.   

b.  The Office of the Armed Forces Medical Examiner, Armed Forces Institute of Pathology attempted to determine a specific, underlying cause, or causes, of death for the two fatal cases.  Consultation on these cases was obtained from experts within DoD and experts at the Mayo Clinic and the CDC.  No etiologic agent was found for pneumonia in these cases, and there is no evidence that death was directly attributable to the same underlying cause as pneumonia.  Rather, the two Soldiers died of complications of their acute disease.

c.  Eosinophils are white blood cells that are normally found in small numbers in the body.  The presence of a relatively large number of eosinophils is called eosinophilia.  Eosinophilia is a sign of inflammation in the body.  Eosinophilia occurs in a wide range of medical conditions, including infections (especially by parasites), asthma, hay fever, and allergies.  Acute eosinophilic pneumonia is an inflammation of the lungs characterized by eosinophilia, a relatively rapid onset, and often a rapid progression to acute respiratory distress syndrome.

d.  The EPICON case definition for AEP is an illness of less than a month’s duration that includes fever, and a cough or shortness of breath, and signs of pneumonia (infiltrates) on chest x-ray.  In order for the pneumonia to be classified as definite acute eosinophilic pneumonia, eosinophils must be detected in fluid recovered from bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) or lung biopsy procedures. Patients with pneumonia who do not undergo BAL or biopsy but have an elevated number and percentage (>10%) of eosinophils in the blood are considered “probable” cases of AEP.  Finally, all known causes of eosinophilia (allergies, etc.) and acute infection must be excluded for all cases of AEP. 

e.  Cigarette and cigar samples from the theater were analyzed and found negative for ricin, strychnine, picrotoxinin, lobeline, diquat, paraquat, and the standard Food and Drug Administration pesticide residues.  Several patients examined at Walter Reed Army Medical Center after recovery showed no signs of a condition called hypersensitivity pneumonitis. 

LATEST RECAP:

The most recent AEP patient from the USCENTCOM AOR was diagnosed in June 2004.  This investigation has also identified three cases of AEP among military personnel not deployed to the USCENTCOM AOR; all were new-onset smokers.  These include one Marine who became ill while undergoing his 2-week annual Reserve training at Fort Hood (July 2004), and two Soldiers stationed in Korea (July 2003 and October 2004).  The October 2004 case died in Japan (enroute to Tripler Army Medical Center from Korea).

Covering their preverbal butts cause we should already be at a phase 4 should have been there months ago...So lets just skip the phases and leave everyone till the last minute...dang time to change preparness scenario...

They know if they went to phase 4 or to the 5 people would start isolating themselves and would not show up for work...so now they will wait till its knocking on your door, no moral thought for anyone,s lives in this...

Chicken Hawk wrote: I would still like to know if this was actually said by WHO or is this just an assumption. I don't have time to read thru the whole article this morning as I have to go to work, but I was just curious as to whether this is a fact or just speculation.  If this were to blow up overnight then obviously it would go straight into pandemic. And why would WHO try to cover their butt on anything? Wouldn't they want the world to know to step it up in preparation? If they didn't, isn't that defeating their whole purpose as the World Health Organization and all of the work that they have been doing?  What would they gain from not going to the next phase?

Cause they should have put it up to phase for long time ago...they knew there were H2H clusters...

Fluprepper can you give us the URL to the PDF file that contains this information please...

WHO experts draw up pandemic flu battle plan

* Dead swans in Poland had H5N1 strain g Cats in Austria test H5N1-positive

GENEVA: The global spread of bird flu is unprecedented and the threat of a human pandemic will not go away, but the world is not totally defenceless, the World Health Organisation (WHO) said on Monday.

Speaking at the start of a three-day meeting of experts called to sharpen the global response to any human outbreak, the WHO’s top influenza official said the first thing would be to try to stamp it out before it really took hold.

If that failed, the next move would be to attempt to curtail its spread and avoid the high death toll and economic devastation that a full blown pandemic would bring, said Margaret Chan. “When a notoriously unpredictable virus like the influenza virus is given unprecedented opportunities, we must be prepared to see some surprises,” she said in opening remarks to the meeting at the WHO headquarters in Geneva.

“But we are not without defences, if we act collectively right now,” she added.

Some 30 epidemiologists, virologists, and laboratory experts will take part in the talks, along with health officials from affected countries. “During the first years of the 21st century, concern about the spread of infectious diseases has escalated very rapidly, following the emergence and international spread of SARS and now the looming threat of infectious disease from potential pandemic influenza,” WHO special adviser on avian influenza Margaret Chan told the health experts.

“Events in recent weeks justify that concern. H5N1 avian influenza has spread to affect wild and domestic birds in 17 new countries in Africa, Asia, Europe and the Middle East,” she added.

The technical meeting is due to work on a “protocol for rapid containment and response”, to ease the detection of the first signs of a possible new, more deadly and infectious strain of flu in humans that could spread swiftly around the world.

The original draft of the plan, one of a series to coordinate international action, was first released in January.

But the outcome of the latest three-day discussion behind closed doors is not expected to be available until March 15, WHO spokesman Dick Thompson said.

WHO epidemiologist Keiji Fukuda said: “We hope by the later part of the summer to initiate some of the practical steps”.

A Polish laboratory confirmed Monday that two swans found dead in the north of the country were infected with the H5N1 subtype of bird flu, which can be transmitted to humans, swelling to nine the number of EU countries with the deadly viral strain.

“Yes, we have confirmed that it is definitely H5N1. We are following all the procedures in force in the European Union. The samples will now be examined by the (EU) reference laboratory in Weybridge (England),” the deputy director of Pulawy laboratory, Jan Zmudzinski, told AFP.

The H5N1 bird flu virus has been found in “two or three cats” in the southern Austrian province of Styria, the province’s health authorities were cited Monday as saying by Austrian media.

The cats infected with the H5N1 virus, which can be lethal to humans, are still alive, Hans Seitinger, Styria’s agricultural representative was quoted as saying by the Austria Press Agency and ORF radio.

The virus was found after tests were conducted on the cats by the Health and Food Safety Agency, Seitinger said. agencies

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2006%5C03%5C07 %5Cstory_7-3-2006_pg4_4

Even though some people think it should have been upgraded to phase 4-5 a long time ago, apparently WHO doesn't think so or they would have already done it.     

 I think Elbows said it best," As for triggering a cascade of actions by countries, well thats the entire point of having an alert system."

I still don't see why they would be trying to cover their butts, it's not like bird flu is a big secret. It would defeat their whole purpose for exsisting if they were trying to keep things quiet.  I think they are doing a great job.  I don't think we would be as informed about Avian Flu without them, so I am trusting that they will continue to keep us informed.

For me, this is almost trigger-pulling time...and, after I let it sink in a while, could very well be(quote)

I feel the gitter bugs crawling on my spine cord also..and no that not the few beers I had last night

There is something else going on aswell.

 Look at the above article. She says that there are warnings at the beginning of the meeting in Geneva that a potential pandemic might derive from another strain.

In Muskrats article she says we must be prepared to see some surprises.

This is the second time this week that I have have read that there might be some surprises!

 I am going to do some digging later. Known viruses around are.

H3N8 virus which recently jumped species from horses to dogs in the states causing kennel cough symptoms and pneumonia.

September 1998 in Malaysia emerged Nipah virus newly recognised zoonotic disease causing high fatality in humans.

Adenovirus Chicken ebola.

Any ideas?

Hantavirus in Brazil 2004 H2H not known in rats and mice.

Ebolahaemorrhagic fever in Congo and Uganda which is more lethal than Sars!