H7N9 Mutation - CDC New Division

Shanghai, Jan. 11 (CNA) Chinese researchers have discovered mutations in the new strain of avian influenza A, known as H7N9, and have found that the virus has the ability to spread from human to human, the latest issue of China’s Southern Metropolis Weekly reported.

Although the H7N9 and H5N1 viruses have not had the ability to widely spread from human to human, after undergoing genetic mutations and redistribution through mutations, they become better able to bind to human cells in the upper respiratory tract and can evolve into bird flu strains with the ability to transmit among humans, the team says.

The report said that H5N1 and H7N9 have been two of the the most lethal avian influenza viruses for humans in recent years. Since the first case of human influenza A H5N1 was reported in 1997 in Hong Kong, the virus has affected more than 60 countries around the world, with a fatality rate of 60 percent.

http://pissinontheroses.blogspot.com/2014/01/max-alert-usa-at-risk-expect-30-new.html

The current spike is from the Gregorian New Year Holiday, Jan 1 (one paid day off),
The next H7N9 spike will be from the 2014 Chinese New Year Holidays, January 31- February 6th (7 paid days off).

A very simple static parametric analysis indicates the rates of H7N9 rates of infection resulting from the Chinese New Year will initially be 7 times greater than what occurred as a result of the Jan 1st holiday. A dynamic analysis from a Discrete Event Simulation could give much greater insight into the epidemiology.

Obviously, this situation means a greatly increased risk that H7N9 will enter the United States as people return from celebrating the holiday in China. We expect that H7N9 will be in the United States by Valentine's Day.

KiwiMum wrote: Wow, that is really something. Could someone remind me what the fatality rate of H7N9 is please?

total of 221 cases

with 57 deaths reported

so roughly 25% or so