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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Alberta, Canada H5N1 case - Event Date: January 22 2014

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LewisAHoffman View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote LewisAHoffman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Calendar Event: Alberta, Canada H5N1 case
    Posted: January 22 2014 at 8:52pm
Each day there is no additional news about the mysterious H5N1 case in Alberta makes me that much more suspicious about the circumstances surrounding this young RN's infectation in 
Beijing. Was it deliberate and was she sent home as an unwitting possible spreader in North America?

lewis hoffman
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote LewisAHoffman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2014 at 9:05pm
I just realized I stupidly used the word infectation, which does not exist, although maybe it should.  I of course meant to get across the fact that she must have been infected with H5N1 while visiting Beijing. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guest Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2014 at 9:15pm
I don't think there is any real doubt that the virus was acquired it China.

Are you suggesting that perhaps someone deliberately and systematically infected her and then deliberately and systematically sent her back to her home in Canada to deliberately and systematically infect people in North America? Or am I reading your posts incorrectly? Also, can you elaborate on what specifically you find mysterious?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2014 at 1:58am
I think it would be wise to communicate over this H5N1-story. Even when there is no news yet the Canadian Government could tell the press that they are investigating and expect to get results before a specific time. Maybe they have done so. 

There are enough questions. Did they track down all other passengers from the two flights from China to Canada and within Canada on wich the H5N1-infected nurse travelled ? What is China doing to find out how the woman got infected ? Are the cooperative ? Did Canada share information over this case with China, are there more H5N1-cases in Bejing ? 

H5N1 is very serious. This story needs a lot of attention !
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guest Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2014 at 8:37am
There is actually quite a bit of information that has been already been reported in the media including
- all passengers on both flights were notified
- her two companions and passengers sitting close by were monitored for 10 days to make sure they were not infected
- prophalactic medications were given to that same group
- WHO and as well as the Chinese health authorities and animal health organizations around the world were notified by the Public Health Agency of Canada
- how much information China has or is sharing is anyboby's guess
- as with many infections of all sorts of avian influenzas, how she got it is not known. Her companions reported that there was no direct contact with poultry.

I agree that H5N1 is very serious but all the info you are asking for has been reported on. Your first post made me think that you were perhaps putting forward that this was deliberate in some way. I think that conclusion is a a real stretch quite frankly.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 24 2014 at 1:28am
"Guest", I did not put the first post. I do not think it has any use to make stories more complicated than they are. There always will be virusses and bacteria that can cause severe illness or death on a large scale. The big question unanswered is where did this H5N1-version come from. Notifying does not answer that question. 
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 24 2014 at 7:12am
Sequencing the H5N1-virus would take a few days. From another forum I get the info that "Canada has a reputation for sitting on data". (Prince Edward Island-case in 2006).
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote LewisAHoffman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 24 2014 at 2:14pm
Sequencing has been completed. H5N1 clade 2.3.2.1, first isolated in birds in 2010 in Bulgaria. 
Very few human cases with this clade thus far. This clade has been shown to have enhanced transmissibility among mammals. It reassorted with the H5N1 clade which had been entrenched in Cambodia in early 2013 and apparently caused a signiicant increase in cases in Cambodia thoughout 2013. 

I am suspicious about the Alberta case for the following reasons:
     
     1.  There were only two cases of H5N1 in China in all of 2013, both well south of Beijing and according to Xinhua, both patients had close contacts with poultry. The young RN in the Alberta case had no known contacts with poultry and reportedly never left Beijing during her stay in China. To my knowledge, no H5N1 patient has ever contracted the virus in Beijing prior to this young lady.  

     2.  As an RN who grew up in China, this lady would  presumedly exercise above average care with respect to activities which could possibly lead to her infection with H5N1. 

     3.  What a conincidence that this victim contracted H5N1 just in time for her to become symptomtic only AFTER arriving back in Canada.  I am always skepkical about situations involving "coincidence."

     4.  Had the incubation period in this case been longer, this lady could have been back to work at Red Deer Hospital as a nurse with the obvious implications stemming from that prior to becoming symptomatic. 

     5.  There was a well-publicized H1N1(2009) outbreak in the Calgary-Edmonton corridor during December, 2013, which was characterized by authorites as severe. 

     6.  A reaasortment of H5N1 with H1N1 in a human body could result in the noghtmare scenario experts have fretted about for years -- a flu pandemic which could kill many millions. 

     7.  An opportunity to seed an H5N1 pandemic in North American like this one doesn't happen very often. 

      Suspicioius yes, but some facts which we all can reasonably expect to be forthcoming will hopefully prove my suspicion to be totally unfounded. 

     Keep in mind that when it comes to flu, Chinese authorities have a poor track record in almost every respect and I personally dodn't trust them in any respect. 

     Lewis Hoffman


















i  

 















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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guest Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 24 2014 at 5:31pm
Sorry Dutch Josh! I misidentified you as the initial poster. In rereading I realize it was Lewis Hoffman.

Lewis

Not for a moment do I not think that H5N1 is one serious bug but to suggest that the infection was deliberate just seems a bit over e top to me. Lots of 'could haves', 'might haves' and 'maybes' that don't don't point to anything being 'deliberate'. IMO

Some counterpoints

1. Only 2 reported cases
2. Have you been to China? Lots of ways this might have happened and many existing cases that source of infection is unknown. This isn't the only case where a clear path of infection cannot be determined.
3. She was only there for 2 weeks so timeline make perfect sense and doesn't suggest anything sinister
4. Woulda, coulda, shoulda.... The innubation period is what it is. If it had been shorter she would still have been in China. I don't see how you can read anything into that
5. H1N1 has been widespread across NA. Not just Calgary Edmonton
7. There are hundreds of flights daily from parts of the world with novel and deadly viruses that land all over NA. why would you say the opportunity doesn't present itself very often? That part of Canada is not densely populated. Can't think why anyone wanting to deliberately, in your words 'seed an H5N1 pandemic in North America', wouldn't choose a more densely populated area like Los Angeles, New York or Dallas (where they have had a brutal H1N1 season)

I will agree the the Chineseauthorities have been less than reliable in reporting.

My issue with you post is your characterizing this poor woman's infection as 'deliberate'. Hope her family aren't followers of this forum.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lewis A Hoffman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 24 2014 at 11:18pm
http://s.newsnow.net/FUS.gif http://www.newsnow.co.uk/A/692143116?-13907:6303 - Alberta ex-Beijing H5N1 Has RBD Change D225R
 
See this article, dated today,  for more info on the sequences on the Alberta nurse. This article makes it clear that a full set of sequences was released to GISAID by the Health Protection Agency of Canada.
 
A careful reading of this article  eases some but  by no means all of my concerns, particularly those surrounding the fact that this nurse originally presented with encephalitis, without a cough, rather than typical flu symptoms. THAT SCENARIO IS VERY UNUSUAL. The writer of this articlle states that a duck tested in Hunan (A/duck/Hunan/15/2004) in 2004 had the same receptor-binding change as the nurse in the instant case, to wit, neulogical targeting rather than binding in the lower respiratory track.  The writer states that this earlier case in a DUCK  ten years ago and far removed from Beejing "may" be responsible for for the neuological targeting in this case. In my opinion that is a bit of a stretch.
 
The mother of the nurse was reportedly along on the trip to China (reportedly of several weeks duration). When her report of events is hopefully one day made public, we may have many more facts concerning how her daughter might have contracted this peculiar H5N1 recombinant.
 
For now, much about this case remains a mystery.
 
It is worth mentioning that even  several years after the so-called swine flu pandemic in 2009-2010, the scientific community has yet to provide a clear explanation of the origin of that quadruple reassortant, so it too remains a mystery.   On that issue, we do know that the origin was NOT the pig farms near the initial case in Mexico.  Interestingly, it has reared it's ugly head again as this flu seaon's  predominate virus. Many predict that it will result in a memorable flu season, to say the least.  
 
Lewis Hoffman
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 24 2014 at 11:33pm
Mr. Hoffman, what would be a motive for anybody to want to spread a H5N1-virus ? Maybe some extreme muslim-terrorist group would do so. Chine needs the US and Europe to buy her products. Killing your market does not sound wise. On the other hand I think that North Korea is another face of China. Maybe even a single person might try to spread a virus. 

There remain a lot of questions over this H5N1-case. Also the link with sewage does not sound good.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guest Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 24 2014 at 11:44pm
CIDRAP news scan - january14, 2014

"The patient experienced malaise, chest pain, and fever during her Dec 27 homeward flights, prompting her to go to a hospital emergency department the next day, according to the report. After a chest x-ray and computed tomographic scan suggested pneumonia, she was prescribed an antibiotic and sent home.

She returned the next day, Dec 29, with worsening chest pain, shortness of breath, a mild headache, nausea, vomiting, and other symptoms. Another x-ray indicated worsening pneumonia, and the patient was admitted to the hospital and treated with additional antibiotics.

On Jan 2 the woman reported visual changes along with a persistent headache. In view of this and her increasing need for oxygen, she was admitted to the intensive care unit for intubation and mechanical ventilation, the report says. Early the next morning she had sudden tachycardia and severe hypertension, followed by hypotension, necessitating steps to keep her heart beating.

At this point the patient's pupils were dilated and she did not respond to pain, the report says. A CT brain scan then suggested diffuse encephalitis and intracranial hypertension, and a neurologic exam indicated brain death. Magnetic resonance imaging of the brain showed swelling, signs of meningitis, and a reduction in cerebral blood flow."

She was in China 3 weeks (my bad... I thought it was 2)

None of your comments really explain why you think this poor woman was deliberately infected.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guest Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 24 2014 at 11:47pm

"What Is Conspiracism?
By Christopher Hodapp and Alice Von Kannon from Conspiracy Theories and Secret Societies

In the past two centuries, and particularly in the last 50 years or so, people the world over have embraced conspiracism. When we refer to a conspiracy, we mean an honest-to-goodness, old-fashioned conspiracy, as defined by the dictionary — a plot by some dark and nefarious characters to do something sinister or evil.

In its milder forms, conspiracism isn't too bad. You know what we mean — the kind of guy who's perfectly sane, yet he's absolutely convinced that the price of everything he buys is controlled by some tiny cartel of bankers in New York or Geneva. Or maybe he thinks that the United Nations wants to take over the U.S. government. Or that National Security Agency spies are tracking his movements through a microchip in his neck inserted when he had his tonsils out.

The problem is that, as this sort of thinking has become more and more common, it's spawned a new sort of social commentator and a new sort of world view, seeing every major world event through the dark filter of conspiracism.

The universe of conspiracism isn't a random place where things happen for no reason. As Michael Barkun puts it in his book, A Culture of Conspiracy: Apocalyptic Visions in Contemporary America:

Nothing happens by accident: Everything that happens in the world is intentional, by someone's (or something's) Grand Design.
Nothing is as it seems: Whoever or whatever is in control disguises their role and their identity. In fact, they go out of their way to look innocent, deflect blame, or just plain hide.
Everything is connected: Because of an intricate, evil design that allows for no accidents, there's no such thing as a coincidence, and the patterns of evil forces are all interconnected with each other. Therefore, the right type of person can see these patterns of numbers, designs, events, or activities everywhere, once they know what to look for.
This last bit is important because, in most conspiracy theories, a thread of insistence exists that only certain, truly enlightened people can see the truth behind the secret plots. Most conspiracies are, so the thinking goes, invisible to the vast majority of sheeplike citizens who go grazing through the pasture of life, never suspecting the evil wolves lurking behind the rocks of everyday occurrences.

In a way, conspiracism can be comforting to true believers because it removes the scary notion of randomness from the universe. For some, conspiracies can seem like an extension of religious faith, with God and Satan locked in a struggle for supremacy on Earth. In fact, many conspiracists are strongly connected to a belief in the coming of the end of the world. After a specific series of world events happens, these "millenialists" believe, those events will usher in Armageddon, the final battle between the forces of good and evil on Earth."
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lewis A Hoffman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 24 2014 at 11:56pm
Good morning, Dutch Josh,
 
Your post and question of me as to possible motive more or less went on to answer your own question. Could be a group, an individual, a twisted high level Chinese ruler. Who knows? I have learned over my 70 years not to bother much about motive, because motive often gets into such a myriad of possibilites as to become useless. I just let the facts take me where they lead me.  Please read again the last sentence of my original post on this subject. It was in the form of a question, not a statement. It will be interesting to see how this case plays out. I believe the story is presently far from completely told, so I intend to stay tuned.
 
Have a great day!
 
Lewis A Hoffman
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 25 2014 at 2:17am
Good day Mr. Hoffman, elsewere I posted my idea that you can not rule out that the Spanish Flu might have been one of the bio-weapons used by the "central-powers" in W.W. 1. The Germans tried also spreading the plague, were taken by surprise with the first gas-attack-results (an opening in the French lines 6 kilometers wide !). 

This H5N1 story is far from finished !
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 25 2014 at 3:18am
Conspiracism is based on history full of "false flag"incidents, secret files and rumours. Bio-weapons have been tested through the ages. That is how we got the plague in Europe in the 14th century ! (Mongols moving westward and catapulting infected bodies into cities under siege). From Pearl Harbor in 1941 to the Tonkin-incident in 1964, things are more complicated then history books can tell. 

This H5N1-case could be explained by Chinese not willing to take care of an expensive and dangerous (contageous) patiënt. They might have expected something but wanted to get rid of a problem. Putting the "Chinese-Canadian" in a plane might have been a way to save a lot of money.
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Johnray1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 25 2014 at 6:14am
Dutch Josh,this Chinese lady could have been infected,with out her knowing it.John
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 25 2014 at 6:40am
If i were going to give flu to a group of people. I wouldn't just send one person.

I would maybe infect a pig farm or a chook shed etc. Then i would chuck the carcasses in a river which ran through a major financial center.

sorry one person not a conspiracy.

Anyone else think of decent distribution method and not get caught in the act??
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 25 2014 at 6:53am
cobber, produce (old fashioned) stamps or envelopswith a virus on the back/sticking-side. Virus on food packages. The cholare-bacteria arrived in Haïti by mail. Airco's are another way to spread virusses....

For the moment this H5N1-case might be negligence, but if the woman developed her illness during the flight maybe there is, this time, no blame on the chinese authorities.
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2014 at 11:32am
An update:
http://video.thechronicle-online.com/search/all/raw-avian-flu-death-confirmed-in-alberta/3029461189001/page/26
How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.
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