Rome, Milan Ebola cases suspected

Lets hope that this new strain of Ebola stays confined to West Africa because if Tuscany does have a confirmed case then stopping the spread of the virus will be much harder. 

Ebola is now in 7 African countries. It has an incubation period of up to 21 days for symptoms to appear.

"...the CDC has issued a travel alert to airlines and set up emergency quarantine stations at domestic airports"

"40 illegal alien migrant workers from the outbreak area, who came ashore in Pisa, Italy, are showing signs of Ebola infection and are being isolated in Pisa Italy because of fever and “conjunctivitis” (bloody around the eyes). According to the World Health Organization, this strain of Ebola is entirely new and although it is close to the Zaire strain, it is different, thus accounting for false-negative test results . . . . . for weeks!"

http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/report-ebola-suspected-in-europe-broken-through-all-containment-efforts_04202014

Considering the 21 day incubation period and the false negative tests, I believe that this does qualify for a slate wiper. If this gets loose we're all screwed unless we can isolate for really long extended times. Just think of all the hundreds of international flights between Europe and the U.S.


A best guess probability per the link above is that there is a 29% probability that Ebola will strike the U.S. within 28 days.

The good thing about Ebola is that you are not contagious until you are down. Once you are down there will be a limited number of people around you.

I agree with Kyle - the latest surge in MERS cases is more worrisome than Ebola. To be a major pandemic candidate, a pathogen has to have a high CAR coupled with a high CFR. That is, it must infect easily and kill large numbers of those infected. While Ebola's CFR of up to 90% is formidable, it just doesn't have the ability to spread efficiently enough to spark a major global outbreak. On the subject of airborne transmission, there's a world of difference between someone sneezing influenza viral particles into the air, and an Ebola victim coughing up blood and lymphatic fluid. We're so used to the symptoms of colds and flu that it almost goes unnoticed, but someone bleeding from their lungs would have everyone around them running for the hills.

But you won't be contagious while you are traveling.

It's still an infectious disease - just not in the same league as influenza.

Hi, there are one or two things about the current outbreak of haemorrhagic fever in Africa that are worth paying attention to.

The first is that it is a new strain. While it appears to be very close to the Zaire strain, its not exact. This means it has been systematically missed in current clinical tests for ebola and has produced a negative result. This has already happened on multiple occasions and has even led to patients being told to go home or being misdiagnosed with something else like Lassa fever as a result.

The second is that it does not present clinically like Zaire or Sudan strains. The west African strain presents with little bleeding from the patient in most cases. The most reported feature is severe conjunctivitis when bleeding is mentioned, again, this is causing a lot of misdiagnosis.

Have a look at the case reported in Canada a few weeks back. The Canadian authorities confirmed someone with a haemorrhagic fever, who had arrived via aircraft from west Africa, was being treated, but said it was not Ebola. This was before it was known there was a new strain, and it illustrates the two above points perfectly.

The third problem and probably the most scary is that local people is the affected areas are avoiding treatment centres and even attacking them as they don't believe anyone who goes to one comes back. In addition to this, as soon as someone mentions the word quarantine the local people have a habit of disappearing, often reappearing over a border with another country to avoid any kind of captivity. People are people and as much as we hope our first world societies will hold together in the event of an outbreak of this horror, somehow I think the old rule of every man for himself will always come into play.

You are right to say MERS and Flu are something to be concerned about, mers especially with the worrying new trend its exhibiting, but I wouldn't write this new strain of ebola off too early as it seems to be able to persist outside the body for some time on surfaces in the environment making one of its transmission modes via the eyes and fingers. In this regard its just like the Flu and that is what is making its spread so dramatic in big cities.

I would urge you to look up the patent zero and subsequent progression for this Ebola strain, it starts last December with a 2 year old girl. The next patients are what you would expect, Mother, grandmother, aunt but number 5 is a nurse, and number 6 was a midwife. The 6th one is where it got scary, we know she infected 6 more at least. 6 for 6, and no survivors and this disease is infectious after 3 days and can remain without presenting any symptoms at all for up to 21 days after you become infectious.

I have that horrible feelings its going to surprise us all.

Utwig

    

Here's an audio press briefing from April 8th.

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/multimedia/ebola_briefing/en/

Kyle wrote: Notice today under the new health minister in Saudi Arabia there were no cases to report today.... What a mess!

Yeah my comments a few months back about airborne came from a study which found monkeys getting sick when in isolated cages but in the same room. It floored the scientists.  (i think it was monkeys.. may have been pigs?? can't recall) This was a new strain..

just did some research on Ebola and this out break is scary!!!!!

If you are interested Cobber here is the link to the science journal publication of the pig/monkey study.

 https://www.sciencenews.org/article/ebola-may-go-airborne 

I do not have a subscripiton to the journal so my info is limited.  It may be obsolete too as this is a new strain.

Suzi wrote: The good thing about Ebola is that you are not contagious until you are down. Once you are down there will be a limited number of people around you.

Hi Cobber,

The incident you are refereeing to is the Ebola Reston outbreak in the Reston primate holding facility in the US. You are right the strain was airborne and was proven to be spread via the air conditioning system to all wings in the facility.

There is a book available on amazon called 'The hot zone', this is all about the Reston outbreak and is worth reading.

There is no need to be worried though, the Reston strain does not affect humans, only monkeys and its in a different viral 'clade' (family group) than the strains in Africa which means the chance of the African strains developing that ability is very small. Im not saying its impossible, but its in the range of probability that has no effect on my ability to sleep at night.


Utwig

Utwig wrote: Hi arirish, In Europe we have a problem I don't think you guys in the states see very often. ITs very common here in the UK to have desperate people in Africa hide in the wheel wells of aircraft before they take off. Usually, the unfortunate individual freezes solid after dying from lack of oxygen and falls from the aircraft wheel well when it comes into land. ITs very common for people living in the flight path for Heathrow airport to discover dead bodies in their gardens, or shattered defrosted bits of them all over a road. Its shocking I know, but its more common than you may think and happens at almost all European airports. It's provides an easy route for a virus to travel 2700 miles without a paying ticket. I am so happy I don't live near Heathrow anymore. Utwig.

Didn't that just happen yesterday with a flight from California to Hawaii?

Hi arirish

Yeah, its unbelievable I know but it happens every couple of months or so.

I can also understand why MERS and The various lethal strains of Flu are higher in peoples minds as a threat. I have been following the outbreak pretty much from the start and it has some very disturbing aspects that have my own threat warning returning a pretty big blip with this Ebola.

If you look back in the MSM news, you will see there was a suspected case in Canada, a couple in Nigeria and in some other African countries as well. In all of these incidents, the authorities admitted a haemorrhagic fever was involved, but it was put down to something else, like Lassa fever.

All of these cases happened before it was realised a new strain of Ebola was responsible and that the current field kits to detect Ebov do not detect the new strain.

My own belief if that this strain has already made multiple crossings into Europe and its only blind luck that has stopped a major spread. The problem is it can incubate for 21 days with no symptoms and be infections for 18 of those days. In 5 months it has gained a momentum of about 10 casualties per day, both MERS and H7N9 have yet to reach that level, though granted MERS is certainly moving in that direction we just don't know if its seasonal variation or not.

I hope you and Jacksdad are right, I really do, but Im going to continue watching this as I think we will only have to wait a week to a month to know the true extent of what is going on.

Utwig.

Haha, I must be slow today, yes, it is far away, but luckily I found an old Ur-Quan dread and salvaged an engine....

:)

Utwig

Newbie wrote: .... Between mers & Ebola - a lot of places are getting scratched off my 'want to see/explore' list!!!

And don't forget China during flu season every year....

Read my new thread Ebola Airborne. This argument that Ebola is not a threat as a Pandemic is weak and there is proof it can be airborne. One case and a projection is not as strong as a single shred of evidence of a currently airborne from of Ebola.