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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

statistics and projection Ebola
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Points: 95617 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: statistics and projection Ebola
    Posted: August 05 2014 at 7:13am
http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread1025400/pg1

There are a lot of threads on various aspects of the current Ebola outbreak - so many that it's hard to picture just how fast Ebola is (or isn't) really spreading. To get a better picture and to see what kind of projections could be made, I created three charts using data I manually compiled from periodic updates from the World Health Organization (WHO). 

The results are pretty interesting, and a bit scary. I thought others might be interested in seeing these, too. Chart 1 and Chart 2 show the number of cases and the number of deaths for the Ebola outbreak that have been reported to WHO. 





The y-axis scales are different in these graphs. In Chart 1, the y-axis is linear. In Chart 2, the y-axis is a logarithmic scale where divisions of the axis increase by powers of 10. Logarithmic scales can sometimes make a rate of progression much more clear. For example, a rapidly escalating curve may actually be a pretty straight line increase (but at a geometric rate) when viewed on a logarithmic scale. 

I suspected that the spread of an epidemic like the Ebola outbreak might look more like such a straight line on a logarithmic scale. And (at least to me) that's what Chart 2 indicates. 

The data used is from the news updates on these WHO sites: 

SOURCE: WHO website 1 

SOURCE: WHO website 2

NOTE: The WHO data used includes both laboratory-confirmed and suspected cases as reported to WHO by the affected countries in Africa. 

If the trend that is pretty obvious in Chart 2 was to continue to spread at this rate without slowing down, you can make some seat-of-the-pants projections just by extending the lines. That's what Chart 3 shows... and it is scary, especially if you imagine it continuing even further at that rate. 

Chart 3 has future projections that hopefully will NOT happen. Actual data was only available through August 1, 2014. 



I want to stress that hopefully the trend will NOT continue as projected in Chart 3. Hopefully things like travel restrictions, quarantines, possible vaccines, treatments, or just nature will limit (and ideally halt) the spread.
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Points: 95617 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 05 2014 at 7:19am
When you put statistics at work you always have to remember that they are only statistics. But they can give a shocking picture ! This projection put the Ebola deats getting over 10.000 coming march. 

To be honest, if there is not put a stop to it, Ebola could explode and chart 1, with different numbers, could get more realistic, in my opinion. There is no coördination, the fight against Ebola is done mostly by NGO's and they are simply not able to get this under control. When there are people dying from Ebola and their bodies are not picked up the problem is exploding !
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Points: 88450 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 05 2014 at 7:34am
A picture paints a thousand words.  Thanks Josh
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 05 2014 at 7:45am
Dutch, your charts give numbers of people are these people mostly in Africa? I can see that with people dumping bodies in swamps and on the streets it can get bad in Africa. However, what will charts look like if it comes to the North America or Europe?
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Points: 20151 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote onefluover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 05 2014 at 8:12am
Thanks Dutch! When I look at the top one which reflects the doubling of new cases/deaths every few days over the last few periods, if this trend were to hold steady, I still come up with a number of around...40 million by November...! Of course that just can't be! The latest measures taken should slow it down but if the numbers reach a certain point, the virus will be scattered throughout the environment and it would be hard to imagine where one could go in search of food and water where they wouldn't come in contact with it adding to and compounding the numbers and increasing the odds of contact.
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Points: 95617 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 05 2014 at 8:22am
There might be a lot of factors to make a "model" of how Ebola might develop further. I think quite a lot of Ebola-cases might have escaped any registration by lack of an organization that can monitor the situation. The Ebola-crisis will create panic in West Africa and make people want to escape from the virus but in that way even spreading the virus. In my opinion the WHO etc. reacted far to late and getting this under control might be similar to the Cholera-crisis in Haïti-a matter of years.
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Points: 26660 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 05 2014 at 8:36am
Good work, Dutch!  It also helps to compare the magnitude of this outbreak with others (SARS, dengue etc.)  

This article has excellent graphs comparing this Ebola outbreak to others:


What makes this one so worrisome is the potential to spread like a wildfire throughout Africa.  SARS was a cake-walk to contain compared to this one! 
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Points: 95617 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 05 2014 at 9:39am
Considering that the countries involved in West Africa are in the middle of the rain forrest, without realistic bordercontrol, with wars in Mali, northern Nigeria (and proberbly lots of smaller conflicts). People moving to the cities in hope of a better future ending up in slums. I was thinking of how the plague developed in the 14th century in Europe. 
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Points: 2495 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote quietprepr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 05 2014 at 2:33pm
Great post Josh. I think the reported numbers are very low. With people fleeing the hospitals and likely dying in villages and private homes, the reports probably wont get close to accurate until far down the road when the outbreak has run its course and some research is done. As for what would happen to the numbers if it breaks out here in the US, I think it will initially be spread much slower and the CFR rate will be lower until it overwhelms our facilities. It is easy to quarantine a few people at each hospital, but if hundreds show up, all bets are off. I have been to the ER during flu season and seen it overflowing...with something as deadly as ebola, it would quickly degenerate into home quarantines and hoping that social distancing could contain it. Clean water, sanitation, and different customs for handling the dead will help us greatly as long as we can up with new cases and fatalities. I am praying we can control it and stop the spread, but the news is not encouraging at all.
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Points: 26660 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 05 2014 at 4:00pm
Originally posted by quietprepr quietprepr wrote:

Great post Josh. I think the reported numbers are very low. With people fleeing the hospitals and likely dying in villages and private homes, the reports probably wont get close to accurate until far down the road when the outbreak has run its course and some research is done. As for what would happen to the numbers if it breaks out here in the US, I think it will initially be spread much slower and the CFR rate will be lower until it overwhelms our facilities. It is easy to quarantine a few people at each hospital, but if hundreds show up, all bets are off. I have been to the ER during flu season and seen it overflowing...with something as deadly as ebola, it would quickly degenerate into home quarantines and hoping that social distancing could contain it. Clean water, sanitation, and different customs for handling the dead will help us greatly as long as we can up with new cases and fatalities. I am praying we can control it and stop the spread, but the news is not encouraging at all.

I'm not that worried for the USA....Ebola virus disease (EVD) is primarily contagious during symptomatic stages and post-mortis, so infection control is easier than with influenza.  

Africa is getting nailed because of ignorance, disbelief, mistrust of government/formal healthcare, and lack of sanitation in general.   Heaving dead bodies into mud streets is not conducive of controlling this thing! 
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Points: 47251 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 05 2014 at 4:18pm
Josh - as always, thank you for taking the time to put together your posts. Your attention to detail when it comes to finding relevant statistics and charts is second to none here. Appreciate it, buddy
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